Earlier the Cubs acquired Mike Olt, CJ Edwards, Justin Grimm and a player to be named later for Matt Garza. Over the next two days I'm going to write short pieces on each of these players before a final analysis.
Mike Olt is the center piece of the trade. He was ranked the 22nd best prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB.com. Olt has struggled a bit this season in AAA, but that's been largely because of some issues he's had with his eyes. That appears to be fixed now and since returning from the DL, he's been every bit as good as he once was.
Olt was listed at 6-2, 210 pounds entering the season. He was born on August 27, 1988 and plays 3rd base.
Olt draws a lot of walks. He has ranged anywhere between 11.8% to 16.4% in his minor league career. He also strikes out quite a bit. That strike out rate has ranged 24.0% and 33.3%. The 33.3% is this season and can be explained by the eye problems.
Olt hits for a lot of power. His ISO has always been in the .200s or higher.
As a 3rd baseman, it creates an interesting situation in Chicago. Or rather, a potentially interesting one. it won't be long before we see Olt in Chicago and if everything goes according to plan (it never does in baseball), Javier Baez could join him and Starlin Castro in Chicago by the end of next season.
One of them will have to move to a new position.
Below is Mike Olt's scouting report from earlier this year by Baseball America.
With plus raw power and strong hitting approach, Olt is a threat to go deep anytime he steps to the plate. He works deep counts and piles up both walks and strikeouts, so his average will settle in the .260-.270 range. Pitchers have had success exploiting the length in his swing by attacking him with high fastballs, and he continues to work to identify and stay back on breaking balls. Scouts say Olt is a joy to watch defensively, owing to his agility and ability to make throws from any angle. He's a well below-average runner.
Like Profar, Olt has advanced rapidly thanks to his tools, work ethic and mental toughness. He's blocked in Texas by Adrian Beltre, so a shift to first base or an outfield corner could be in the works. A potential all-star, he could open 2013 in the big league lineup or get a couple of months in Triple-A.
He won't be blocked in Chicago.
The Cubs farm system was stacked before this trade and it's even more so now. Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and company have done a superb job rebuilding this system in less than two years.
Comments
What am I, a 27-year old AAAA 3b who is having a good season? Oh, wait.
Luis ValbuenaQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
*applause*
The strikeout thing is scary but I hope Olt has a nice bounceback. This was a great trade.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m not as concerned about a high strikeout rate when you can take a lot of walks. That doesn’t mean it’s not a concern, but it’s much less of one.
dmick89Quote Reply
Grimm will replace Villanueva in the rotation, I assume.
dmick89Quote Reply
Lots of people referencing the sample collector that fucked up in 2011 being vindicated. Not really seeing it. The guy clearly fucked up, anyone with 0.5% of a brain knew that Braun was probably guilty.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Oh dear, oh dear…
SLQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think Grimm replaces Garza for now, right? Then Baker comes back and they’ll have to see who sucks more. Also, Arrieta might get a shot, as will Rusin/Raley and maybe Alberto Cabrera. Cubs have #5 starters coming out of the woodwork, I can’t keep track (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, you’re probably right. Probably some fluctuation from here on out anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
he left his last start with a forearm strain, so i wouldn’t pencil him in just yet
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Um…. Wouldn’t he replace Garza?
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ GW:
One could say we saw the Grimm
/rimshot
BerseliusQuote Reply
I liken this trade to Alcantara, Underwood, Wood, and PTBNL. If that’s what I got for Garza, I’d be pretty happy.
Olt is comparable to Alcantara, though they are completely different. I see them as fringe-100 guys. Olt is a great-glove, good power CINF who probably has a high ceiling. Alcantara has a higher ceiling (sticking at MINF), but a lower floor. CJ Edwards is a 48th round pick so it’s hard to really love him, but he does strike out 32.4% of his batters faced and hasn’t yet surrendered a professional baseball home run. Grimm is probably a 4 or a 5 going forward (so was Wood when we traded for him), who doesn’t overpower guys but has never pitched to his peripherals in the majors. He replaces Garza.
Honestly, I hope the Cubs trade Darwin Barney really soon and put Valbuena at 2B so Olt can play at 3B. If that doesn’t happen, they could platoon there (but Barney strikes me as a great throw-in for a trade if the Cubs make another one).
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick, so early round picks are meaningless
/Yellon
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I don’t see how the Olt comp can be anyone but Bert, even if you like Olt better. Not sure that the Cubs have anyone like Edwards. Out of nowhere, scouts love the stuff he’s shown lately… Wood and the Grimm seems pretty appropriate.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I agree. Myles comps are pretty good, but I think you have to use Brett Jackson. Olt is risky.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
I actually think pretty differently about the alcantara-olt comparison. i think Alcantara is solidly top 100 at this point, albeit in the lower half. Olt seems to get mixed reviews some, Baseball America, still have him in the top 50 whereas i think some evaluators have knocked him off top 100 lists altogether. Olt has the higher ceiling but possibly lower floor because his he has an obvious flaw in his game, making contact whereas Alcantara doesnt have tremendous power, speed or hit tool, but is pretty solid in all of them and ok at taking walks. Seems Olt is a potential Dunn but with the ability to play excellent, possibly GG, defense at third, which makes him actually a very high ceiling player.
AndrewQuote Reply
the insider at psd is saying the ptbnl list could include sardinas and odor, and that there may be two lists depending on whether the rangers make the playoffs and Garza makes all his starts the rest of the way.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/rangers-complete-long-rumored-trade-for-matt-garza/
GWQuote Reply
Cubs confirm deal with TWO PTBNL. Holy cow.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
rangers seem to be reporting one
if it’s two, it’s probably lesser guys
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Sickels has Edwards at #73 on his mid season prospect list. If Odor is indeed a PTBNL, he is #66. Luke Jackson nowhere on Sickels list.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Must be two ptbtnl lists not ptbnl’s
Not Stationary WaLiQuote Reply
@ Not Stationary WaLi:
Yeah, that’s probably what it is.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I’m not sure how much weight I’d put into midseason rankings. Not that I’d put a ton of weight into preseason ones, but those are given significantly more thought than midseason ones. There’s much more time to get input from scouts and include that in your list. I read them and enjoy as much as anyone, but I’d still feel better saying that Olt is the 22nd ranked prospect in baseball and he’s had a horrible season (obviously he’s fallen in the rankings).
I think more than anything these lists give us an idea how the preseason ones will be put together.
/2 cents
dmick89Quote Reply
It will be interesting to see much more highly thought of Edwards will be this offseason. I tend to agree with what Berselius said the other day. I’m very skeptical of guys taken in the lower rounds who suddenly shoot up these rankings. That’s especially true for pitchers. From what I read recently, it sounds like his stuff has improved and there’s some reason to think he’s just a much better player. The same could have been said for dozens of other low round picks who had good early starts only to fall apart. The rate of failure is high for any minor league player, but I’d be shocked to learn that of two similar players through A ball that the higher draft pick hasn’t fared better in future years. I’d also be very surprised to find that of two similarly ranked players after A ball, the player picked in the higher round doesn’t fare better.
dmick89Quote Reply
Anthony Andro @aandro 6m
The Garzal deal could contain one or two players to be named depending on who is selected.
Retweeted by MLB Trade Rumors
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Player B is the best.
dmick89Quote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
I hope B and C are Profar and Garza.
GBTSQuote Reply
odor would have been nice. But needless to say I am enthused greatly by this.
My top 6 prospects:
Baez
Almora
Bryant
Soler
Alcantara
Olt
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Could ramirez be ‘player A’?
Might be the holdup was finding an alternate PTBNL as insurance against ramirez’ s health.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
shawndgoldman wrote:
i am pretty sure it was reported somewhere that the cubs can choose him if they want. I think Gordo tweeted that
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
shawndgoldman wrote:
that’s my guess. although it sounds like the deal is different now vs friday (grimm vs sardinas…)
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’d rather have had Sardinas. If I had to guess, player A is Sardinas and player B and C are two nobodies I’ve not heard of.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
My uneducated list would be Baez, Bryant, Soler, Almora, Olt, Alcantara. Olt’s ceiling is significantly higher than Alcantara’s. I think Andrew put it best earlier in the comments. Olt’s ceiling is as high as anybody in the system. Alcantara can’t come close to that. Considering Olt’s success in the high minors, I just don’t see how you can put Alcantara above him.
That’s not being negative about Alcantara. I might be higher on him than most people are. I think he could be a damn good player. I think he’s clearly a top 100 prospect.
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
1. All three people cubs can pick from are pitchers. No Sardinas or Odor. 🙁
Olt kinda reminds me of left handed hitting Bryant. I would much rather take the MIF guy who can run and has power (i think i see a jimmy rollins type of guy) over Olt.
I think all 6 depending on how they finish though could be top 50 guys which if true would mean the cubs probably have the top system in the minors. Cant have 6 top 50 bats and not be #1 team. Even if twins have Buxton and Sano.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
ALso think Pierce Johnson will sneak onto the back end of some top 100 list
Crazy to think that 2 years ago we needed Vitters and Jackson to make it and now they are complete afterthoughts. Amazing what the wonderkids have done
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Didn’t see they said the options were pitchers. Thanks.
I think Callis already said they were the top system. Olt only strengthens it.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=985
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
No doubt Edwards has potential. I had forgotten how he only weighs 155 pounds.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
thanks. kiley mcdaniel said he hadn’t even heard of him until a month or so ago, and all of the sudden people in the game were bringing him up.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
He was a top 15 prospect pre-season by baseball america. If this guy hadn’t heard of him, it’s probably because he doesn’t spend any time looking at the Rangers system.
2883Quote Reply
I think you mentioned Joe Ortiz, don’t PTBNL have to be guys not on the 40 man roster?
2883Quote Reply
@ 2883:
he spends most of the year covering the draft. Edwards was a 48th rounder, so I think it’s fair to say that he came out of nowhere.
GWQuote Reply
@ 2883:
that was “early” speculation. not sure about the rules, but I doubt he’s one of the ptbnl’s at this point.
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
It sounds like Player A is Ramirez, and if the Cubs don’t want A, they get B/C.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
puts Ramirez in a bit of an odd spot for the rest of the season
GWQuote Reply
Navarro, eh.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
No problem. It’s hard not to look at Edwards stats and say, “holy shit”. Then you see 155 pounds and 48th round. And only 160 innings.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’s made himself a better pitcher than the one drafted in the 48th round. However, it’s still a small sample and it’s only up to A ball. High A will be a good test for him. Hopefully it goes well, but I’m just not overly optimistic that someone taken that low in the draft has turned themselves into a legitimate prospect.
It doesn’t change whether or not this is a good trade. They still got Olt and his potential alone is more than I expected for Garza.
Great trade. I’d imagine the Cubs try to deal Valbuena and we’ll see Olt as soon as he’s traded. I’m guessing some team will have use for Valbuena.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I wouldn’t be surprised if they trade any one of Barney, Olt, or Valbuena between now and the deadline.
GWQuote Reply
Who is Ramirez? I don’t know anything about the rangers system. Dollars to donuts the rangers make extending Garza priority one.
joshQuote Reply
apparently grilli just hurt himself
GWQuote Reply
@ josh:
Neil Ramirez. 24-yr old who was demoted to AA this year, but supposedly has decent stuff. Currently dealing with a shoulder problem from excess archery
GWQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
I haven’t been this optimistic about the Cubs’ future since they had a contending team and the top-rated system in baseball. The Cubs, like every other team, are rolling the dice on prospects coming through… the difference is they get to roll the dice a lot more often given all the prospects they have. Or maybe there’s a nerd joke in there somewhere about doing damage with d10’s instead of d4’s or something.
Anyways, amazing turnaround in just a few years. I’m very very happy.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
They also have money so they don’t need to hit on all these guys. Not to mention Rizzo and Castro who are of the age that most players are still in the high minors. Their 25 and under talent is as good as I’ve ever seen. It was just a couple years ago that it was the worst I’d seen. This spans about 12 to 14 years in which I’ve followed the minor leagues.
Let’s just hope that the Cubs get more MLB talent than they did in 2001 and 2002 when they had 4 or 5 top 50 prospects.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
It goes without saying that I couldn’t care less about this, but I think it’s hilarious that the Brewers players are upset because he lied. It confirms my opinion that athletes are the dumbest people walking the planet. Did they really think they were told the truth? Like Berselius said, it took .5% of a brain to realize he took PEDs. Apparently MLB players (and I’d assume all other professional athletes) have less than .5% of a brain.
In my opinion, that’s the story here.
dmick89Quote Reply
Junior Lake is fun.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Future Cubs could hit a shit-ton of HRs. There could easily be five guys hitting 25+ HRs. Even if Baez, Soler, Bryant and Olt don’t meet expectations, the power should still be on display if these are the guys who get the at-bats.
JQuote Reply
Olts track record of consistently good at walking and hitting for power is a lot deeper than Alcantara and based on what the scouts say, he seems to have a ceiling of top 5 defensive 3B in the league. The only question is the Ks. However weve all seen too many K’s are a big problem and could derail a career. Unfortunately (or fortunately because otherwise cubs wouldnt have him now), he has struck out 32.5% in the minors. That is more than Adam Dunn in the majors. Dunn has had a very successful offensive career so thats what i would say olts ceiling is offensively. Defensively, maybe scott rolen? idk, but very good.
AndrewQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Exactly. They don’t have to all pan out. At some point the plan is for the Cubs to start turning into a successful MLB team. Then some of the prospects will be dealt away for MLB talent, and they won’t need them to be good in MLB – just projected to be good.
The current crop of top prospects in the system will probably be part of that nucleus… but much of the next wave of guys from high school and the international draft will eventually turn into MLB quality players through trades.
And remember, even though the prospects didn’t pan out the Cubs still got some MLB quality players out of that perceived system-wide talent level. Derrek Lee, Nomar Garciaparra, and Aramis Ramirez came from that highly ranked bevy of prospects.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ Andrew:
Olt is just under 27% in the minors.
I think Rolen is probably a tad high for a defensive projection, unless you mean Reds-era Scott Rolen.
GWQuote Reply
I remember looking for some minor league comps for Brett Jackson a year or so ago and it’s tough to do. I wanted to look at players who had reached the big leagues and IIRC, there just aren’t a lot of players in MLB right now who have struckout at that rate in the minors.
With Jackson, you could at least count on him getting the platoon advantage most of the time. Not so with Olt. I don’t put much stock in the 32.5% he had last year with the Rangers in only 40 PA. I’d be more confident using the roughly 27% rate he’s had throughout the minors. That just might mean a 30% or higher rate at the MLB level. That’s kind of scary.
If the Cubs could flip Olt for a nice starting pitcher, I wouldn’t object.
dmick89Quote Reply
I heard Keith Law on the radio earlier tonight talking about Edwards shooting up because his velocity has increased significantly. The Rangers took a shot with a young, athletic kid with a decent arm who threw 86-88 and now he’s up over 90 consistently and touching 96. He compared his delivery to Roy Oswalt.
Aisle424Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Aisle424Quote Reply
Lake is hitting .500. I’d better check his BABIP to see if he’s been lucky.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21288
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh, in case anyone is curious how Lincecum followed up his no-hitter:
3.2 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 3 HR
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I wouldn’t mistake “lucky” with “not sustainable.” Lake has made a lot of hard contact and laid down good bunts, .I don’t think that his hot start is about dinks and bloops. He’s been genuinely good (at the plate), but in a little less than 24 hours we’ll see how well he does when pitchers stop throwing him strikes. I’d like to see the Cubs keep him up if he can adjust to that. Hopefully DeJesus gets moved to a team that needs an OF post suspension. (TEX is a good candidate, with Cruz maybe going away for a while. My theory is that MLB is waiting on these suspensions because they don’t want players returning in time for the playoffs, like Melky could have last season.) If Lake not totally overwhelmed, better him than Bogusevic or Sweeney. And if Lake costs you a few games and helps your draft position, that’s fine.
BABIP is a better stat for pitchers than hitters. BABIP removes homeruns (a small percentage of which are playable by elite defenders) and doesn’t remove some hits in the field of play that are basically unplayable, barring extreme and bizarre shifting. I mean, five years into George Brett’s or Tony Gwynn’s careers, would you have said their averages are based on luck and they would regress to .300? Good hitters BABIP over .300. That’s not to say Lake will, but it doesn’t mean we can say he’s just been lucky.
JQuote Reply
Soriano ———> maybe, possibly Yankees
Aisle424Quote Reply
heyman also on it
GWQuote Reply
wowza.
lots of late night action
GWQuote Reply
new shit
GWQuote Reply