Myles’ 2015 Awards Post

In Uncategorized by myles52 Comments

The season is basically over! The Cubs are going to meet the Pirates in a one-game playoff to see who actually makes the playoffs, and they have defied pretty much everyone's expectations. They have had something like 5 breakout performances this season, and should bring home lots of the hardware. Here are my postseason awards.

NL MVP

1. Bryce Harper
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Yoenis Cespedes*
4. Buster Posey

This is using a system I've devised. It is interesting because while Kershaw may not be the Cy Young, his value to the team is still very high. It's an odd quirk of the system I've made up. Extenuating circumstances led to inserting Cespedes in the discussion.

AL MVP

1. Mike Trout
2. Josh Donaldson
3. Lorenzo Cain

This is the benefit of my system. Donaldson may have had the slightly better year, but there is no doubt that the Angels don't make the playoffs without Trout and that isn't true of Donaldson.

NL Cy Young

1. Zack Greinke
2. Jake Arrieta
3. Clayton Kershaw

This was really hard. Greinke has the slightly better ERA, but he's in a better pitcher's park. Kershaw has the overwhelming strikeout numbers, but has allowed more runs on a consistent basis. Arrieta had the best half-season probably ever, and is the happy medium of dominance. When it came to splitting hairs, I focused on batted ball data. Greinke separates himself in his ability to limit line drives. While he's allowed to hardest contact of the three, it has overwhelmingly been in hard hit flyballs; also, incomposite, Kershaw has still allowed more medium and hard contact. I'm comfortable having Kershaw as #3 and the other 2 in either order, and it's really hard to choose one way or the other. The last thing I'll say is that Greinke has had .37 runs per 9 of support less than Arrieta, so he's tended to have less wiggle room. That's not a big deal on it's own, but add it to other little things like batted ball data and DRA and he gets the razor-thin edge here.

AL Cy Young

1. David Price
2. Dallas Keuchel
3. Chris Sale

Price is the runaway narrative winner here; in reality, the margin is very close. Keuchel doesn't strike nearly as many people as Sale, and slightly less than Price, but what he does do is induce groundballs at a comical rate; it's a Bonds stat, basically. That means that if you have great infield defense, you can actually expect a low BABIP. Keuchel's is .269, which is essentially a cheat code. He's going to love having Carlos Correa behind him for the next decade. Price barely gets the nod for me because he's less prone to the home run and thus the random flop of a game; that's important from your stopper. Sale gets the "holy shit, 32.3% K rate from a starter!?!?!?!?" award, a Bonds stat in itself.

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Kris Bryant
2. Noah Syndergaard
3. Matt Duffy

It's uninteresting to tell you why Bryant is #1, and putting anyone else there is just trolling. Syndergaard, on the other hand, has not gotten enough coverage for just how sublime his rookie season has been. When he came into the league, he already pitched as one of the 10 or 12 best pitchers in the National League. The Mets have a great pitching staff, but when your #3 pitcher is the unquestioned best one in baseball, and he's a rookie, that's a hell of an achievement. Matt Duffy has been a very nice story, and what I like most about him is he was never just insanely hot, but has provided a really nice glove and and a high OBP from 3B all year. Great table setter this season.

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Francisco Lindor
2. Carlos Correa
3. Miguel Sano

The narrative, again, goes to Correa here. He's been extremely impressive in his 95 games, hitting .278/.345/.508 with 21 bombs. However, in the same exact number of PA, Lindor has hit .319/.356/.488 with 11 HR (.361 wOBA to Correa's .364). In addition to that, Lindor has been exceptional on defense, whereas Correa has been merely average. It's very close, but I give the edge to the exceptional defense. Sano strikes out 36.6% of the time, but when he makes contact with the ball, it's in outer space. His .399 wOBA hides the fact that he often takes the field without a glove. Sano will make a great DH in the near future.

NL LVP

1. Angel Pagan
2. Matt Kemp
3. Jimmy Rollins

Angel Pagan took the defending wild card champs, infused a .263/.302/.335 line with abhorrent defense into it, and basically shit all over their season. Kemp was the hallmark acquisition of the Preller bonanza, and while "healthy" put up a .265/.312/.443 line up, which is good until you realize that it's attached to defense WORSE THAN PEDRO ALVAREZ. Seriously, Kemp has a worse defensive run value than a mannequin you see at the mall. He plays right field similar to the way Kellen Davis used to play tight end. The only value Jimmy Rollins provided this year was the encouragement needed to call up Corey Seager.

AL LVP

1. Victor Martinez
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Pablo Sandoval

Victor Martinez was incredibly worthless this season. The .246/.301/.366 is bad; what's worse is that he plays first base more-or-less like he's on a hoveround. Sandoval and Ramirez were responsible for the death of the Red Sox this season; slight edge to Ramirez for being the worst left fielder since Ryan Braun first started there in his career.

NL Manager of the Year

1. Terry Collins
2. Joe Maddon
3. -none-

I love Joe Maddon, but he wasn't managing as if his job was on the line. There was a great chance that Collins was getting fire in the middle of this season, and the season was going off the rails. All the credit in the world to guiding a not-so-talented Mets squad to the postseason anyway. These two were so much better than the other guys that I'd leave the third spot blank.

AL Manager of the Year

1. Joe Girardi
2. Jeff Banister
3. Ned Yost

The Yankees suck. They do! Look at that pitching staff and tell me that looks like a playoff team. Nonetheless, Joe has them in the playoffs. Bonus points for saying "fuck you, he's awesome" to his own fanbase (i'm paraphrasing) and playing Alex Rodriguez and much as possible. Jeff Banister sneaking his team into the playoffs might actually be even more impressive, come to think of it. Girardi gets the edge because I just think his team is worse. The Royals didn't have a letdown season, and Yost gets some credit for that.

 

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  5. JonKneeV

    Myles, I know you are giving a lot of credit to Terry Collins. I just can’t see anyone getting it other than Maddon.

    While Collins might have a had an effect on the Mets performance, the GM is arguably the reason for the turnaround (I think they were .500 on 7/31). Adding Cespedes and calling up Conforto is the biggest reason for their success IMO. Otherwise they might still be .500.

    Whereas with Maddon, he managed a incredibly young roster, benched the once-franchise player, somehow got through this second half with 60% of his rotation shitting the bed, and led them to the 3rd best record in the entire MLB. To make the same GM argument, the only huge roster improvement was adding Schwarber.

    All bias aside, it’s gotta be Maddon.

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  7. Suburban kid

    I have the NL MVP, three out of six of the ROY candidates, and one of the AL Cy Young candidates on my fake team, but I’m relegated to the third place bracket after losing the semi-finals.

    I guess that’s what happens when there’s only 12 teams and you’re not Terry Collins.

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  8. dmick89

    I say Matheny because the Cardinals have dealt with a LOT of injuries and are still winning 100 games. Also, I agree with JKV about the Mets GM being the one who pulled the trigger on the moves that made the Mets better. I don’t give a lot of credit to Collins for that, but I do think he’ll probably finish 2nd or 3rd.

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  12. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    Myles: Matt Duffy has been a very nice story, and what I like most about him is he was never just insanely hot

    Yes, but is he objectively hot?

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  17. WaLi

    Is anyone else worried about the one game playoff? I get worried then think oh yeah Arrieta is pitching. but then I think it’s going to come down to a 1-0 game.

    Pirates have also been looking good. I guess it’s good it will be one game series

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  18. dmick89

    Arrieta will be starting, but as you said, it very well could come down to a 1-0 game. Cole is awfully damn good himself. I’d feel a lot better if Schwarber put together a good final week. He’s been slumping, but did show signs last night so that could be huge.

    Any time it comes down to 1 game, there’s reason to worry. Arrieta could have his worst game of the season.

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  20. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    dmick89:
    If I was going to bet on that game, which I wouldn’t, but if I was going to, I’d take the Cubs, but I wouldn’t bet much money.

    Alvin’d that for you.

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  22. uncle dave

    dmick89,

    I was having lunch the other day at a restaurant where they had a bottle of Heinz 57 on every table (like all fine restaurants do) and they had one of the best recipes I’ve ever seen on the back. It was Heinz 57 chicken:

    1. Baste chicken thighs with Heinz 57
    2. Bake at 375 for 35 minutes

    Might just have to try that bad boy out this evening.

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  33. uncle dave

    Rice Cube,

    Shit, I’d forgotten all about that whole mess.

    Also, I’m now wandering around the office talking about dismissing things ‘with extreme prejudice.’ If needed, my bail money is in the ‘go bag’ that’s in the hallway closet.

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  35. uncle dave

    dmick89,

    Loved Bob. And I’ll admit that I actually have a go bag — some clothes, cash, food and water, my passport. But no guns or anything. I figure we’ll have the 8.0 earthquake here sooner or later, and after riding out a couple of days I’ll basically just cut bait and skip back to the midwest. I got no plans to stick around and clean up.

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  37. uncle dave

    Tough to argue with Maddon for the most part, but do you really let Lester hit and then pull all of your other starters? I know you don’t want to get your guys out of rhythm this week, but pulling Lester after seven is hardly a quick hook.

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  39. dmick89

    uncle dave:
    dmick89,

    Loved Bob.And I’ll admit that I actually have a go bag — some clothes, cash, food and water, my passport.But no guns or anything.I figure we’ll have the 8.0 earthquake here sooner or later, and after riding out a couple of days I’ll basically just cut bait and skip back to the midwest.I got no plans to stick around and clean up.

    I should get one ready since as of today, Kansas has named October Zombie Preparedness Month.

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  43. Rizzo the Rat

    I also love how The Pirates’ consolation prize for having the second-best record in the MLB is a do-or-die game against the probable Cy Young winner.

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  44. cerulean

    Rizzo the Rat:
    Amazing that The Cards had to win their 100th game to clinch their division.

    Pittsburgh might have to win 98 games just for homefield advantage in the coin-flip game.

    It really sucks that either team will go home after just one game.

    —

    An idea: take the two WC teams and have both go to the division winner with the worst record for a quick elimination tournament. The first day would be the two WC teams at the division winner’s field (with best record acting as home team). The winner gets in. The loser then has to beat the division winner twice to in a double-header to advance. And then when it is all settled, seeding and homefield advantage should be by record.

    So in this arrangement, the Cubs and Pirates would travel to LA and play a win-and-in game. Pittsburgh loses to the potential Cy Young. So the next day they have to beat both the other potential Cy Young and the Cy Young of the last few years that is having a better season than his first Cy Young year.

    It really really sucks to be Pittsburgh in my hypothetical scenario.

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  45. cerulean

    While the Pirates have been good for a few years now, I still find it strange to think that two of the most habitually ineffective teams are going to the postseason at the same time.

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  47. Suburban kid

    uncle dave,

    “We are very pleased with the Court’s decisive ruling today,” said Cubs President of Business Operations Crane Kenney in a statement. “Judge Kendall’s opinion confirms the bleacher expansion does not violate our rooftop agreements, as we have maintained from the outset. We also appreciate that with this chapter closed, everyone’s focus can continue to be on the field, where it belongs, except for those two fucking rooftops.”

    Well played, Craney.

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