Prior to the start of the season we’re going to be previeing the other NL Central teams in two ways. First, Berselius will post the team’s projections for 2011 and then later in the day we’re going to post an interview with one of the team’s bloggers. Today’s Q&A is with Timothy DeBlock of Crawfish Boxes.
Obstructed View: There are two features in ballparks that I cannot stand. The first is the brick wall at Wrigley Field and the other is the flag pole on Tal’s Hill and that hill in general. Both the brick and the hill/pole are unnecessarily dangerous in my opinion. As an Astros fan, what are your thoughts on Tal’s Hill?
Timothy DeBlock: I’m not as passionate about getting rid of the hill as some, but I wouldn’t mind seeing it leveled. It does make for some great highlight reel catches and bloopers, but the Astros have been fortunate to not have a serious injury out there. I know the Astros were trying to add some tradition to the park, but it just makes it look like a five year old designed the park, especially now having added cows to the foul poles.
Obstructed View: Do you expect things to get better with the sale of the team. I ask because things haven’t started to look up now that the Cubs have new owners. In fact, they may even be in a worse situation than before, which is hard to believe.
Timothy DeBlock: I’m hesitant to say a change of ownership is a good thing. I think Drayton has done some good things for the organization, but has also gotten in his own way at times. He supposedly has learned from his mistakes and is now willing to allow the organization to rebuild. New ownership is bound to make changes, which could be a good thing or a bad thing in terms of which way the organization heads. A lot of fans seem to be excited about new ownership coming in, but I’m not so sure because the grass always looks greener on the other side.
Obstructed View: It appears to me less material is published about the Astros than any NL Central team. Is that because the team has been expected to be poor over the last 2 to 3 years or is there some other reason?
Timothy DeBlock: The expectations of the club certainly play in a part in it, but also the lack of star power coming from the farm system and free agent market. Hunter Pence was the last blue chip prospect to come out of the farm system back in 2007, and even he has underperformed expectations. Before that it was Roy Oswalt, and now it’s Jordan Lyles who’s largely considered to be a mid rotation starter. The farm system is getting better, but it’s going to be some time before more ink is spent on the Astros. As for the free agent market, the Astros have tended to shy away from a big signing, but then when they do make a big signing it’s for a career .800 OPS outfielder who should probably be playing first or DHing.
Obstructed View: Wandy Rodriguez is probably the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Since 2008 he has the 17th best ERA among starters with 300 or more innings. His FIP is in the top 20. That’s better than Jered Weaver, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and Jake Peavy. It’s only slightly worse than Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Yovanni Gallardo. What does Rodriguez have to do to get noticed?
Timothy DeBlock: It is a bit of a head scratcher he’s underrated by most Houston fans as well, largely due to his perceived inconsistency. Which is based on the gap in his home/road splits. He pitches like an ace at home, and a back end of the rotation starter on the road. Fans put more potential on him even though he’s already a very good pitcher posting a mid 3 ERA the last three years.
Obstructed View: Are the Astros going to contend? What has to happen for them to be in that position?
Timothy DeBlock: The Astros will not contend this year. Any hope of that faded with the injuries to Jason Castro and now Clint Barmes. I think I heard the Astros are moving Michael Bourn to a hyperberic chamber and not opening it until the season begins. If the Astros were to contend one the injuries have to stop, but that’s league wide, most teams who make the playoffs avoid injuries. The defense would have to improve, but for that to happen Carlos Lee has to be moved out of the outfield to first. An unlikely scenario with the way Brett Wallace is hitting this spring. The pitching will keep the Astros in games, but has question marks with J.A. Happ and Bud Norris, and lacks a dominate reliever in the bullpen. Finally the offense would have to not be horrendous, which may be problematic for a team that struggles to take walks.
Obstructed View: How do you think the NL Central ends up 2011?
Timothy DeBlock: I know the Cardinals have the percentages, even with the loss of Adam Wainwright, but I like the Reds I think they’re the most well rounded. It’ll be a toss up between the Cardinals and Brewers for second, but I slightly like the Brewers and look forward to seeing Zach Greinke pitch. As this point I’m just going to be biased and say the Astros finish fourth, followed by the Cubs, and Pirates. Although I can see the Cubs ahead of the Astros. The Pirates could make a run for fourth or fifth, but that would require something like a 20 game turn around from 2010, and I just don’t think they’ve made enough moves to accomplish that.
Comments
It’s nice to see someone put the Cubs in 5th place to knock off all of the creeping “if things go right” optimism that I’ve been accruing (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m consistently surprised by Wandy. When you watch him pitch, he never seems like he shoudl have the success that he does, but the guy just gets people out.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’m consistently surprised by Wandy. When you watch him pitch, he never seems like he shoudl have the success that he does, but the guy just gets people out.[/quote]
I hate it when the Cubs lose to Wandy. My image of him was cemented when I saw him as a called-up-too-early prospect, despite all the quality production since then. When he shuts down the Cubs it still feels like they’re being shut down by Jeff Suppan.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It’s nice to see someone put the Cubs in 5th place to knock off all of the creeping “if things go right” optimism that I’ve been accruing (dying laughing)[/quote]I still need to learn some more about the other teams, but I’m leaning toward 5th right now. That’s partly because the Astros always seem to do better than projected even if you want to make of me for that. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I still need to learn some more about the other teams, but I’m leaning toward 5th right now. That’s partly because the Astros always seem to do better than projected even if you want to make of me for that. (dying laughing)[/quote]
I feel pretty confident in saying that the Pirates and Astros will finish in 5th and 6th place, in some order.
BerseliusQuote Reply
It’s taken a long time for me to realize how good Wandy is, but he’s one of the best. I think it’s partly because he doesn’t have that overwhelming fastball that you think of with most really good pitchers. I also think the splits like Timmy mentioned is part of it.
I wonder where he’s picked in fantasy drafts. I bet he’s a cheap pick up.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I hate it when the Cubs lose to Wandy. My image of him was cemented when I saw him as a called-up-too-early prospect, despite all the quality production since then. When he shuts down the Cubs it still feels like they’re being shut down by Jeff Suppan.[/quote]Same. It bothers me way more than it should. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s taken a long time for me to realize how good Wandy is, but he’s one of the best. I think it’s partly because he doesn’t have that overwhelming fastball that you think of with most really good pitchers. I also think the splits like Timmy mentioned is part of it.
I wonder where he’s picked in fantasy drafts. I bet he’s a cheap pick up.[/quote]It really depends on what kind of league you’re in whether or not he’s valuable. He doesn’t get you big K numbers and has a high-ish WHIP at times, and with that offense, doesn’t get a lot of wins, so in traditional formats, he’s not a great pitcher to have.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Good point, MO. I always forget how FBB doesn’t reflect actual baseball in almost any way. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
The Astros roster is pretty bad. Almost every projection system I have seen has them as a clear 5th place team.
Just eyeballing it, the Astros lineup looks to be about on par with the Cubs lineup. Their staff isn’t nearly as deep and they don’t have as good a bullpen.
I’m also wary of the “Cubs could surprise” sentiment that has been percolating both in Cubs-centric and general baseball media; but I’m not too worried about the Astros being better than the Cubs.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
are we doing an obstructed view fantasy league?
dylanjQuote Reply
I don’t like two active comment threads.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]I don’t like two active comment threads.[/quote]
I used to fuck guys like you in prison.
Jimmy.Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It’s taken a long time for me to realize how good Wandy is, but he’s one of the best. I think it’s partly because he doesn’t have that overwhelming fastball that you think of with most really good pitchers. I also think the splits like Timmy mentioned is part of it.
I wonder where he’s picked in fantasy drafts. I bet he’s a cheap pick up.[/quote]I got him on autodraft last year, and I believe my dumb luck worked pretty well to get him much later than what he delivered. He was a quality start machine as I recall.
AndCountingQuote Reply
“I ask because things haven’t started to look up now that the Cubs have new owners. In fact, they may even be in a worse situation than before, which is hard to believe.”
Curious to know what evidence there is of this? Not saying there definitely isn’t any, I’m just not aware of any, and since he’s owned the team for just a little over one year now, I’m inclined to argue it’s way too early to be judging him, really.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
I don’t think it’s ever too early to start judging someone. The earlier it is the more you have to realize whatever conclusions you reach may in fact be completely wrong and I know that. Things can change quickly and he may end up being a great owner.
He took control of baseball operations for the Cubs in July, 2009 (at the all-star break). He had a direct impact that year on the draft according to Selig and they were about average in total signing bonuses. They were average to below last season last I checked. He was on board for two international signing periods and the Cubs have passed on top Latin American talent left and right.
He does this while saying he’s going to invest more in the minor leagues when he has not. It’s easy to lie about something that few fans are even going to care about.
He asked the state for $250 million to renovate a ballpark that he literally just purchased while the state was in the worst economic shape it had been since the Depression. Oddly enough there hasn’t been too much written about the renovation since that offer was criticized by nearly every person.
He paid too much for the team and seemed to be without any clue that Wrigley was going to need about half a billion dollars invested into it after purchase. He still paid full price. When Mark Cuban was backing out saying the books just didn’t make sense, Ricketts was standing firm with his offer.
This hasn’t even touched on the Cubs roster, which was inevitably going to age without some investments in the minor leagues AND younger free agents. Instead, the Cubs just traded half their farm for a player who will be making millions and is in or past his prime. They gave $20 million to a reliever.
Entering 2010 the Cubs only had two options: spend money on younger free agents (trade some of the older ones if possible) or build for the future. The Cubs did neither. A legitimate 90 win team in 2008 and 2009 went down to about 85 wins last season and now they’re not much better than 75 (projected totals entering the season).
Sure, players contracts have gotten out of hand for those signed before him, but they’ve made no effort that I can see to build the minor league system and actually replace these older players with younger and better players. They’ve skimped on the draft, been pretty much irrelevant when it comes to signing the top Latin American talent in the world, failed miserably at an advertising campaign (It’s a way of life has been laughed at by everyone), failed to understand the economic situation Illinois was in, and left little to no money to make necessary repairs.
All that said, and this is important, Jack, there may be something going on that I’m not aware of. I’ll gladly admit being wrong about Ricketts if or when I would need to. I’ll also be more than willing to change my opinion based on new information, but what I’ve seen so far it’s not been pretty.
mb21Quote Reply
^^^ Very much this.
MishQuote Reply
i read somewhere (maybe Miles blog) after the two Cuban signings, the Cubs are now in the top 5 in terms of dollars spent for international signings.
ABQuote Reply
yeah i was gonna say the Cubs have been pretty active in the int’l market.
Im taking a wait and see approach.
dylanjQuote Reply
If the Cubs are valued at around $850 million and Wrigley is going to require about $500 million in renovation, I’m splitting the cost with the previous owner. There is no way that I’m paying full price in that economy while knowing you have to somehow come up with more than half of what you just spent.
I should also add that I have a strong dislike for wealthy people who ask for handouts. Even Tom’s dad thought his son was nuts for asking the state for that money.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]yeah i was gonna say the Cubs have been pretty active in the int’l market.
Im taking a wait and see approach.[/quote]
Think what mb is getting at, and which we’ve discussed here a few times, is exactly where those int’l $$$ are going – to countries far poorer in young talent.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=AB]i read somewhere (maybe Miles blog) after the two Cuban signings, the Cubs are now in the top 5 in terms of dollars spent for international signings.[/quote]Interesting. I’ll have to look into that. Thanks.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It really depends on what kind of league you’re in whether or not he’s valuable. He doesn’t get you big K numbers and has a high-ish WHIP at times, and with that offense, doesn’t get a lot of wins, so in traditional formats, he’s not a great pitcher to have.[/quote]
Actually, he’s averaged about 8.5 K/9 which is pretty good, especially relative to his ADP. He started very slow last year, and a lot of guys had him in the top 100, and he pitched bad enough to be dropped. His offense kills his wins, too.
But again, you watch him and wonder how a lefty that throws 88-90 can pitch that way.
Serbianking33Quote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]Think what mb is getting at, and which we’ve discussed here a few times, is exactly where those int’l $$$ are going – to countries far poorer in young talent.[/quote]Cuba is another example of that. I was all for signing Chapman because that guy was going to pitch in the big leagues in no time, but I’d probably stay away from the ones who aren’t blue chips.
I’m pretty sure this is the Cubs new Finnish Baseball Academy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i2VOV_9peY
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AB]i read somewhere (maybe Miles blog) after the two Cuban signings, the Cubs are now in the top 5 in terms of dollars spent for international signings.[/quote]Does Kosuke count when they ring up those totals? I would assume he does, but I assume some stupid things.
AndCountingQuote Reply
I think I saw Jim Hendry in attendance there.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
I’m pretty sure this is the Cubs new Finnish Baseball Academy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i2VOV_9peY%5B/quote%5D(dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Does Kosuke count when they ring up those totals? I would assume he does, but I assume some stupid things.[/quote]Yeah, Kosuke would count for 2008 when he was signed. I’ll have to look into the international free agent signings. I had forgot they signed 2 Cubans, but I don’t think either was any good. Better than Robert Coello guy they wasted money on last year though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting](dying laughing)[/quote]Don’t laugh. You were watching some future Cubs in that video.
mb21Quote Reply
I thought we got Coello for Tony Thomas?
Serbianking33Quote Reply
My theory on why the Cubs are so bad at baserunning is they sometimes forget that it’s American baseball. They occasionally teach the youngsters to run to 3rd. They’re working on it though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Serbianking33]I thought we got Coello for Tony Thomas?[/quote]You’re right. I’m thinking of someone else.
mb21Quote Reply
Juan Yasser Serrano. i think WGC has a link or something to just how awful he is. He’s bad. I mean really really bad.
mb21Quote Reply
Here
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]My theory on why the Cubs are so bad at baserunning is they sometimes forget that it’s American baseball. They occasionally teach the youngsters to run to 3rd. They’re working on it though.[/quote]They need to learn how the play the game the right way.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]My theory on why the Cubs are so bad at baserunning is they sometimes forget that it’s American baseball. They occasionally teach the youngsters to run to 3rd. They’re working on it though.[/quote]
Who cares about results? As long as they make the transition.
MishQuote Reply
Rubi Silva is a pretty well thought of prospect.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]Who cares about
resultsperformance? As long as they make the transition.[/quote]Fixed for nitpickingSuburban kidQuote Reply
Think what mb is getting at, and which we’ve discussed here a few times, is exactly where those int’l $$$ are going – to countries far poorer in young talent
yeah but i have never agreed with md on the korea thing. im all for the cubs taking a lead in a new market vs this crazy notion that the only teenagers worth investing $ into live in the DR
dylanjQuote Reply
Sam Zell threatening to sell Wrigley and the Cubs separately may be the single greatest stroke of sales genius ever employed. “You can buy my revenue explosion of a franchise, but there’s no way I’m agreeing to throw the decaying money pit in which they play into the deal. No way. I’m selling that one special.”
“No! We refuse to buy the franchise unless you let us buy the gigantic concrete and steel piss sponge as well. If anyone is going to pay to upgrade a building according to the terms dictated by the city of Chicago and the state of Illinois and a corrupt syndicate of contractors, it should be us!”
“Twist my arm, Tom.”
AndCountingQuote Reply
As for the 2 Cubans they signed not long ago, one is a 21 year old corner outfielder who batted .276/.305/.428 (look at the impressive OBP). They gave that guy $1 million and they gave a bad hitting, good defensive catcher $500,000.
They’re doing it wrong.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]My theory on why the Cubs are so bad at baserunning is they sometimes forget that it’s American baseball. They occasionally teach the youngsters to run to 3rd. They’re working on it though.[/quote]They’re like the Polish kid in high school kickball who after four years still doesn’t know what tagging up is.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]Think what mb is getting at, and which we’ve discussed here a few times, is exactly where those int’l $$$ are going – to countries far poorer in young talent
yeah but i have never agreed with md on the korea thing. im all for the cubs taking a lead in a new market vs this crazy notion that the only teenagers worth investing $ into live in the DR[/quote]
It also includes the random European countries and probably Antarctica.
MishQuote Reply
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0324-haugh-cubs-chicago–20110323,0,7450187.column:
“Any unbiased mayor would look at the situation between the Sox and the Cubs and conclude the great burden on the Cubs has not been placed on the Sox,” Ganis said.
“The public helped finance Soldier Field and ‘The Cell,’ but when it comes to Wrigley, people expect Ricketts to pay for it all himself?” Ganis said.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]Rubi Silva is a pretty well thought of prospect.[/quote]Has to be because of some of the tools. The guy isn’t much of a hitter and splits time between CF and RF. He’s 21 and the league he’s playing in is the equivalent of High A.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]Think what mb is getting at, and which we’ve discussed here a few times, is exactly where those int’l $$$ are going – to countries far poorer in young talent
yeah but i have never agreed with md on the korea thing. im all for the cubs taking a lead in a new market vs this crazy notion that the only teenagers worth investing $ into live in the DR[/quote]Not just DR. Most of Latin America. Let someone else figure out whether or not there’s any talent in Korea. So far the talent has been minimal and it’s hard to justify the expense of much scouting there.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think it’s ever too early to start judging someone. The earlier it is the more you have to realize whatever conclusions you reach may in fact be completely wrong and I know that. Things can change quickly and he may end up being a great owner.
He took control of baseball operations for the Cubs in July, 2009 (at the all-star break). He had a direct impact that year on the draft according to Selig and they were about average in total signing bonuses. They were average to below last season last I checked. He was on board for two international signing periods and the Cubs have passed on top Latin American talent left and right.
He does this while saying he’s going to invest more in the minor leagues when he has not. It’s easy to lie about something that few fans are even going to care about.
He asked the state for $250 million to renovate a ballpark that he literally just purchased while the state was in the worst economic shape it had been since the Depression. Oddly enough there hasn’t been too much written about the renovation since that offer was criticized by nearly every person.
He paid too much for the team and seemed to be without any clue that Wrigley was going to need about half a billion dollars invested into it after purchase. He still paid full price. When Mark Cuban was backing out saying the books just didn’t make sense, Ricketts was standing firm with his offer.
This hasn’t even touched on the Cubs roster, which was inevitably going to age without some investments in the minor leagues AND younger free agents. Instead, the Cubs just traded half their farm for a player who will be making millions and is in or past his prime. They gave $20 million to a reliever.
Entering 2010 the Cubs only had two options: spend money on younger free agents (trade some of the older ones if possible) or build for the future. The Cubs did neither. A legitimate 90 win team in 2008 and 2009 went down to about 85 wins last season and now they’re not much better than 75 (projected totals entering the season).
Sure, players contracts have gotten out of hand for those signed before him, but they’ve made no effort that I can see to build the minor league system and actually replace these older players with younger and better players. They’ve skimped on the draft, been pretty much irrelevant when it comes to signing the top Latin American talent in the world, failed miserably at an advertising campaign (It’s a way of life has been laughed at by everyone), failed to understand the economic situation Illinois was in, and left little to no money to make necessary repairs.
All that said, and this is important, Jack, there may be something going on that I’m not aware of. I’ll gladly admit being wrong about Ricketts if or when I would need to. I’ll also be more than willing to change my opinion based on new information, but what I’ve seen so far it’s not been pretty.[/quote]
Might not apply to everything in there, but I’d argue that a lot of that may be much more reflective of this organization’s baseball ops department, rather than its new ownership group. By all accounts, Ricketts has stayed true tot he promise that he’d stay out of the baseball end of things, which would certainly impact specifically which foreign prospects the team pursues.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0324-haugh-cubs-chicago–20110323,0,7450187.column:
“Any unbiased mayor would look at the situation between the Sox and the Cubs and conclude the great burden on the Cubs has not been placed on the Sox,” Ganis said.
“The public helped finance Soldier Field and ‘The Cell,’ but when it comes to Wrigley, people expect Ricketts to pay for it all himself?” Ganis said.[/quote]I don’t live in Chicago so I really don’t care if the state pays for all of it or none of it. I can say that if I lived in Illinois that I’d have been against the government providing money to the White Sox, Bears, Bulls or any other team that’s owned by a wealthy person who has plenty of his own money to spend.
Want the state to pay for it? Increase ticket sales and make the people who actually care about the place pay for it. As a taxpayer, the last place I want my dollars going is to something like that.
mb21Quote Reply
why let someone else take the lead? Unless you think there is something inherit to Koreans that would keep them from being as good at baseball as Dominicans then go for it. Both countries have a big baseball tradition so it isn’t like we are signing kids who have never picked up the glove before.
I think the Cubs lead in Korea is one of the best things we have going. Several of the kids we have signed are people to watch this year in the minors
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]Might not apply to everything in there, but I’d argue that a lot of that may be much more reflective of this organization’s baseball ops department, rather than its new ownership group. By all accounts, Ricketts has stayed true tot he promise that he’d stay out of the baseball end of things, which would certainly impact specifically which foreign prospects the team pursues.[/quote]Could be, but the same might be true during the Tribune era as well. We don’t know and never will. I look at the money spent in the draft and how wisely they spent money on amateur free agents. If Tom Ricketts doesn’t know about that stuff he better learn quickly. It’s his livelihood on the line. Jim Hendry and some of the others are going to find other jobs after the Cubs. It’s his business.
Like I already said though, there’s a lot of time left before we can ready a firm conclusion and even then no conclusion on something like that is ever set in stone.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t live in Chicago so I really don’t care if the state pays for all of it or none of it. I can say that if I lived in Illinois that I’d have been against the government providing money to the White Sox, Bears, Bulls or any other team that’s owned by a wealthy person who has plenty of his own money to spend.
Want the state to pay for it? Increase ticket sales and make the people who actually care about the place pay for it. As a taxpayer, the last place I want my dollars going is to something like that.[/quote]
Only linked to the article because there are actually a lot of highly educated people with expertise in the field who don’t think Ricketts is as crazy for suggesting this plan as some have been quick to conclude. By his own admission, the timing and communication of the proposal wasn’t the best, but I’l leave the analysis of that end of business to people like the guy quoted in that article.
Also, re: foreign talent– not that this reflects so much on the new ownership, since again, I’m not convinced the club’s activity overseas should reflect on the owner in this specific case, but I know that guy Starlin Castro is from the DR. So, I think the Cubs may not be doing it all wrong…
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Ricketts asking for money isn’t weird at all. All owners do it. But I think the current political climate has made those sweetheart deals prone to more scrutiny. Plus, with the Ricketts family going balls out parroting Tea Party ideals while asking for public money for their private playhouse its understandable why people got pissed off.
dylanjQuote Reply
“Could be, but the same might be true during the Tribune era as well.”
Except with the Tribune we have almost two decades worth of evidence that they simply weren’t very willing to invest in the on field product, that was at least until they knew they were on the verge of selling the team. The Ricketts’ family has owned the club for one year, and they inherited a team with an, overpaid, underachieving roster, so pumping the breaks on spending actually may have been an understandable, if not prudent decision to make.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
There’s definitive research that sport stadiums are massive boondoggles economically (everything from BPro’s “Baseball Between the Numbers” to actual economists will vouch for this). It doesn’t create any wealth, just transfers wealth into the pockets of owners. I don’t support any state funding of any stadium, ever. (altho, for those that know me, “stadium” can be repalced with literally anything).
I also don’t think that “other teams got it, so should we” is a compelling argument.
MishQuote Reply
ZIPS projections added to Fangraphs, fyi
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]why let someone else take the lead? Unless you think there is something inherit to Koreans that would keep them from being as good at baseball as Dominicans then go for it. Both countries have a big baseball tradition so it isn’t like we are signing kids who have never picked up the glove before.
I think the Cubs lead in Korea is one of the best things we have going. Several of the kids we have signed are people to watch this year in the minors[/quote]
I have a feeling Hak-Ju Lee is gonna be a pretty good player. I obviously don’t know that, but given that they’re relative newcomers to MLB, it might be a long, long time before we can judge the merits of the Cubs leading the way in this market.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Manni Stats]There’s definitive research that sport stadiums are massive boondoggles economically (everything from BPro’s “Baseball Between the Numbers” to actual economists will vouch for this). It doesn’t create any wealth, just transfers wealth into the pockets of owners. I don’t support any state funding of any stadium, ever. (altho, for those that know me, “stadium” can be repalced with literally anything).
I also don’t think that “other teams got it, so should we” is a compelling argument.[/quote]
I’m not saying it is, in fact, generally speaking re: government aide, I’m very much in agreement with you. I just wanted to post a counter argument here. But I don’t necessarily think its correct.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Only point I was making is that him asking for aide hardly means he’s nuts, since it’s sorta SOP.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
the timing of the proposal is what makes it awful. What kind of person would propose what he did while Illinois is in that economic situation? If the economy were booming I wouldn’t fault him for asking the state for money. I wouldn’t like it, but my opinions on handouts to people like that has nothing to do with it. I don’t even fault him for asking the state for money. I just expect him to wait for a time when Illinois isn’t able to pay its own employees. This is just a colossal fuck up from a PR perspective. It’s exactly the kind of shit people expect wealthy guys like him to do and he did just that.
I should add that I’m much, much less hostile toward wealthy people than most are. I’m not the least bit hostile toward them to be honest, but you don’t ask a state struggling to pay its employees for that kind of money.
mb21Quote Reply
agreed with jack. if other owners are getting badass deals then why should we expect Ricketts wouldn’t ask? I’m just glad the good people of Chicago told him to fuck off.
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]Ricketts asking for money isn’t weird at all. All owners do it. But I think the current political climate has made those sweetheart deals prone to more scrutiny. Plus, with the Ricketts family going balls out parroting Tea Party ideals while asking for public money for their private playhouse its understandable why people got pissed off.[/quote]I couldn’t care less what party they’re affiliated with, but I agree there’s nothing wrong with asking the state for money. It’s to be expected, but not at this time.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]I have a feeling Hak-Ju Lee is gonna be a pretty good player. I obviously don’t know that, but given that they’re relative newcomers to MLB, it might be a long, long time before we can judge the merits of the Cubs leading the way in this market.[/quote]Also, it’s not like they’re going to lead for long either. As soon as there is any talent that other MLB teams want, they’re there.
If the Cubs think they’re getting a better rate of return on their investment in Korea then we can’t complain too much. We can question the research that led them to that finding, but if they’re doing it because they want to maximize their spending, great. I think I agree with what you’re saying actually.
On the other hand, if they’re spending all that money just to get a lead for a couple years, they’re doing it wrong. It’s a short-term business plan. Hope you can start to develop or find Korean talent before anyone else, pay them the going rate, but pay many others who don’t pan out. Then when it becomes worth the investment for other teams they all go over there and now the Cubs are competing with them just as they are every team elsewhere in the world.
One has to think the fact that 29 other teams spend significantly less money in Korea than the Cubs that it’s probably not a good investment. When was the last time the Cubs were smarter than every other team?
mb21Quote Reply
Aside from the bad timing, Ricketts doesn’t know how to work the system at all. Reinsdorf got his $$ by threatening to move the team and probably knows which palms to grease. No one would ever believe Ricketts if he threatened to do so.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Aside from the bad timing, Ricketts doesn’t know how to work the system at all. Reinsdorf got his $$ by threatening to move the team and probably knows which palms to grease. No one would ever believe Ricketts if he threatened to do so.[/quote]I doubt Arizona even believed he’d move the team’s spring training to Florida.
mb21Quote Reply
I say we just contract the Cubs and get the Rays over here.
MishQuote Reply
I always look forward to these: http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2011_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_-_national_league_edition
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2011_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_-_national_league_edition
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing), Len just said “officially official”
BerseliusQuote Reply
Didn’t he say finally final last season and we were thinking he may have read ACB? I seem to remember something like that.
mb21Quote Reply
Error Castro. AAAA player.
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]are we doing an obstructed view fantasy league?[/quote]There’s a Discredited Fantasy Baseball League that GBTS is running. It might be full but it looks like one of the owners might not have registered yet so there might be one spot open.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Castro has fielded three grounders this inning, two of them double play balls, and there are still only two outs in the inning. Booo!
AndCountingQuote Reply
I don’t know this to be true, but any legitimacy to the thought that Ricketts’ request for public funding was rooted less in the potential economic benefits to the neighborhood, but rather something they’ve in a sense ‘earned’ based on what Wrigley has already done for the neighborhood aptly called “Wrigleyville?”
Again, I’m not a fan of public funding for sports stadiums– hell, if anyone’s still unsure if they really help the surrounding neigborhood, just consider where the United Center is located– but couldn’t it be argued that the Wrigleyville has the ballpark to thank for whatever economic success they have had? Maybe not, but just a thought.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]There’s a Discredited Fantasy Baseball League that GBTS is running. It might be full but it looks like one of the owners might not have registered yet so there might be one spot open.[/quote]Yeah, dj, if you want in e-mail acbfantasybaseball@gmail.com and I’ll send you the invite. I don’t know who the last holdout is, and they haven’t registered after five days and a couple invites.
GBTSQuote Reply
This much we do know– and Baseball Between the Numbers says as much– pumping money into Wrigley could potentially help on the Cubs’ win games. While it wasn’t done at an efficient cost at all, research has shown that new stadiums have in a lot of cases led directly to better on-field performance.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]My theory on why the Cubs are so bad at baserunning is they sometimes forget that it’s American baseball. They occasionally teach the youngsters to run to 3rd. They’re working on it though.[/quote]
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Baseball Between the Numbers:
“It appears a new ballpark is worth about 5.5 wins per year”
— Neil DeMause
Granted, we’re not talking about a “new” ballpark, rather, just some renovations to a very old one, but it definitely could be argued this would result in a better product on the field.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
If the Cubs gave $250M to the state, it’d probably be awesome for Illinois too.
GBTSQuote Reply
Congrats! Glad to see the new site is up.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
I always seem to tune in right when the minor league announcer says “we’re heading into the business end of this ballgame”. Shut up, guy.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Koyie Hill is a terrible baseball player. I can’t believe he’s going to make this team.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Koyie Hill is 0 for 3, but his BA only went down from .034 to .031.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I assume that 5.5 win improvement is tied to teams increasing their payroll. Most teams who have built new stadiums have increased payroll. Also, there haven’t been that many new stadiums built so I’d have to re-read the article to know how reliable it is. Does that article mention whether the win jump is sustained over a period of years or just immediate? There would be an awful lot of luck involved in one year numbers and not enough new stadiums to reach a conclusion.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Koyie Hill is 0 for 3, but his BA only went down from .034 to .031.[/quote]Sadly, there’s actually a chance his season average will be lower than that. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
A sub-.200 OPS is pretty impressive though.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Sadly, there’s actually a chance his season average will be lower than that. (dying laughing)[/quote]He’s working on things.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://chicagobreakingbusiness.com/2011/03/united-airlines-to-advertise-on-wrigley-rooftop.html
I think the Cubs actually get money from this one though. Which might mean they have to move the Toyota sign…hm.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]A sub-.200 OPS is pretty impressive though.[/quote]Seriously? I know it’s only spring training, but how on earth is that possible? I’m going to calculate his wOBA tonight and see just how many standard deviations he is away from his expected level of production. That’s just crazy.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Seriously? I know it’s only spring training, but how on earth is that possible? I’m going to calculate his wOBA tonight and see just how many standard deviations he is away from his expected level of production. That’s just crazy.[/quote]
Maybe he’s just really unlucky (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
In that article it says teams w/ the new ballparks gained 5.5 wins a year for the next 5 years.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
(dying laughing) he’s been on base 4 times in about 35 plate appearances and one of those times he got thrown out trying to steal.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]In that article it says teams w/ the new ballparks gained 5.5 wins a year for the next 5 years.[/quote]Does is say how much the average payroll increased?
mb21Quote Reply
The Twins payroll increased $30-40 million after they got their new stadium.
mb21Quote Reply
Max Ramirez is still on the roster for some reason. I don’t think he passes through waivers so he can play for Iowa…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Max Ramirez is still on the roster for some reason. I don’t think he passes through waivers so he can play for Iowa…[/quote]I think the reason is because he’s a catcher. Castillo is still there too. Gotta give Koyie a break. It’s tiring walking to and from the batter’s box every couple of innings.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Mets payroll jumped $35 million over 2 year span.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://chicagobreakingbusiness.com/2011/03/united-airlines-to-advertise-on-wrigley-rooftop.html
I think the Cubs actually get money from this one though. Which might mean they have to move the Toyota sign…hm.[/quote]
I am concerned with this ad’s effect on the neighborhood. It is unfair that the Cubs could cause this extra burden on the Wrigleyvill residents by all of the confused Chicagoans who come to Wrigley Field thinking that airplanes leave from there.
Tom TunneyQuote Reply
Even the Nationals payroll jumped $15 million.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I think the reason is because he’s a catcher. Castillo is still there too. Gotta give Koyie a break. It’s tiring walking to and from the batter’s box every couple of innings.[/quote]
Castillo was optioned to Iowa earlier. I think everyone’s still in camp, but Max is still on the official roster. They haven’t made the final cut to 25 yet but it’s most likely Koyie unless something weird happens.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Hector Villanueva]The Astros roster is pretty bad. Almost every projection system I have seen has them as a clear 5th place team.
Just eyeballing it, the Astros lineup looks to be about on par with the Cubs lineup. Their staff isn’t nearly as deep and they don’t have as good a bullpen.
I’m also wary of the “Cubs could surprise” sentiment that has been percolating both in Cubs-centric and general baseball media; but I’m not too worried about the Astros being better than the Cubs.[/quote]
Look at their projections over the last 5 years. Each year, they’ve beaten the projection, in some by a pretty decent margin.
Patrick HarrelQuote Reply
No, it doesn’t, but it’s quite clear that the added wins had everything to do with an increased capacity for paying the best talent in baseball. So, yes, such a result would be dependent on the ballpark’s impact on payroll.
Not sure how much any of this matters with the Cubs, since they’ve already got one of the highest payrolls in baseball, but it remains to be seen where the payroll will be set once the rest of their most burdensome contracts run out.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]No, it doesn’t, but it’s quite clear that the added wins had everything to do with an increased capacity for paying the best talent in baseball. So, yes, such a result would be dependent on the ballpark’s impact on payroll.
Not sure how much any of this matters with the Cubs, since they’ve already got one of the highest payrolls in baseball, but it remains to be seen where the payroll will be set once the rest of their most burdensome contracts run out.[/quote]
The article cited the Indians’ willingness to sign Kenny Lofton and Jim Thome to rich extensions following the construction of Jacobs Field.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Cardinals payroll remained the same, Padres payroll jumped $14 million over 2 years. Phillies payroll jumped $20 million in one year and $36 million in two years. They’re 2004 payroll was well over double what it was in 2001. Reds payroll jumped $14 million. Pirates payroll doubled. Brewers went up by $8 million.
Those are all the teams with new parks since 2001. Cot’s team payroll information goes back to 2000. All teams payroll increased except for the Cardinals.
Probably an average of about $15 million increase, which would more than explain the 5.5 wins, especially when you consider the value of the win at that time.
For what it’s worth, the Royals renovated their park prior to 2009 and their payroll jumped $12 million.
mb21Quote Reply
Those new stadiums would have brought in additional revenue by increasing attendance.
Fixing Wrigley so it doesn’t fall down isn’t going to increase attendance.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]No, it doesn’t, but it’s quite clear that the added wins had everything to do with an increased capacity for paying the best talent in baseball. So, yes, such a result would be dependent on the ballpark’s impact on payroll.
Not sure how much any of this matters with the Cubs, since they’ve already got one of the highest payrolls in baseball, but it remains to be seen where the payroll will be set once the rest of their most burdensome contracts run out.[/quote]
Hard to know. I’ve always thought the Cubs are comparable to the Mets and Phillies. Each team increased payroll significantly, but they increased to about the ranking where the Cubs are at now.
It’s interesting to think about.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Those new stadiums would have brought in additional revenue by increasing attendance.
Fixing Wrigley so it doesn’t fall down isn’t going to increase attendance.[/quote]
True. I’d still argue that investing in the stadium could help the prospects of the baseball team itself, 5.5 wins or any sort of figure along those lines probably doesn’t really apply in the Cubs’ case. Could be that the sentiment on behalf of the owner is there though– fixing the place up could feasibly attract players who otherwise would never have played for a club with such poor facilities. Not sure exactly how many of those there have been over the years, but it’s a consideration.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Those new stadiums would have brought in additional revenue by increasing attendance.
Fixing Wrigley so it doesn’t fall down isn’t going to increase attendance.[/quote]Yeah, it’s clear as Jack said that they had more money to spend. Hard to believe that would be the case with the Cubs. At least not to the extent of those other teams. Add a jumbotron, sell the naming rights and install more ads like other parks and they should have the ability to spend as much as the Yankees do.
mb21Quote Reply
Koyie has a chance to be a hero here. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Koyie has a chance to be a hero here. (dying laughing)[/quote]
I only have GameDay up. Did they seriously have to bring in a KOOGY for Koyie?
KOOGY = Koyie One Out Guy
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Koyie on base. Way to go, KOOGY.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]True. I’d still argue that investing in the stadium could help the prospects of the baseball team itself, 5.5 wins or any sort of figure along those lines probably doesn’t really apply in the Cubs’ case. Could be that the sentiment on behalf of the owner is there though– fixing the place up could feasibly attract players who otherwise would never have played for a club with such poor facilities. Not sure exactly how many of those there have been over the years, but it’s a consideration.[/quote]Yeah, there’s probably a few players that would rule out the Cubs because of the facilities (all else being equal). Investing in the stadium wouldn’t hurt (unless you believe they’ll never win there), but it won’t raise the payroll unless they add seats, charge more, or add a jumbotron like MB said.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I only have GameDay up. Did they seriously have to bring in a KOOGY for Koyie?
KOOGY = Koyie One Out Guy[/quote](dying laughing)
Koyie came into the batter’s box and the pitcher suddenly crouched down, hunched over. The pitching coach and trainer removed him. I assume the guy just felt bad for Koyie and didn’t want to embarrass him. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
That PA (HBP) will raise Koyie’s OPS, possibly over .200.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]True. I’d still argue that investing in the stadium could help the prospects of the baseball team itself, 5.5 wins or any sort of figure along those lines probably doesn’t really apply in the Cubs’ case. Could be that the sentiment on behalf of the owner is there though– fixing the place up could feasibly attract players who otherwise would never have played for a club with such poor facilities. Not sure exactly how many of those there have been over the years, but it’s a consideration.[/quote]
What’s funny is the Ricketts plans involve improving the visitor’s clubhouse as well. I’d just keep those as is, (maybe slap a fresh coat of paint and some new carpeting) and go with the underground lair they have planned for the Cubs new clubhouse.
As it stands now, the Cubs are just as inconvenienced as the visitors are. Might as well make it so they have an actual advantage.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]That PA (HBP) will raise Koyie’s OPS, possibly over .200.[/quote]
Mendoza line!
Aisle424Quote Reply
I wonder if the .200 OPS mark will forever be known as the Koyie Line.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I wonder if the .200 OPS mark will forever be known as the Koyie Line.[/quote]It will now!
Actually, it is about as common as Halley’s comet, so it will be hard to catch on (outside of the Cubs anyway).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]It will now!
Actually, it is about as common as Halley’s comet, so it will be hard to catch on (outside of the Cubs anyway).[/quote]
Even Aaron Miles OPS was something like the mid .400s so, yeah, it’s going to be tough to stay in the .200s. I bet Koyie can do it though. He’s got intangibles.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Even Aaron Miles OPS was something like the mid .400s so, yeah, it’s going to be tough to stay in the .200s. I bet Koyie can do it though. He’s got intangibles.[/quote]When you have no fingers everything is intangible.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]What’s funny is the Ricketts plans involve improving the visitor’s clubhouse as well. I’d just keep those as is, (maybe slap a fresh coat of paint and some new carpeting) and go with the underground lair they have planned for the Cubs new clubhouse.
As it stands now, the Cubs are just as inconvenienced as the visitors are. Might as well make it so they have an actual advantage.[/quote]At Kinnick Stadium (Iowa Hawkeyes) the visitors locker rooms are painted pink. It’s pissed off some feminists over the years, but it’s also made great coaches like Bo Schembechler have his assistants go in and cover the walls with newspaper so the players wouldn’t see the pink.
I love the idea of leaving the visitors clubhouse the same as it is now. Make it worse for all I care. Make them share one shower and one toilet.
mb21Quote Reply
KOOGY (dying laughing) well done RC. I’m going to use that from now on. I’m assuming a KOOGY is pitcher that was randomly selected from those in attendance.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]That PA (HBP) will raise Koyie’s OPS, possibly over .200.[/quote]He’s getting hot. How don’t know how you don’t play him every day until he cools off.
mb21Quote Reply
New post up: http://obstructedview.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=120:getting-to-know-andrew-cashner&catid=37:articles&Itemid=48
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Patrick Harrel]Look at their projections over the last 5 years. Each year, they’ve beaten the projection, in some by a pretty decent margin.[/quote]
I’m pretty unsure of what them beating projections in previous years portends for this year. My guess is that it is a statistical anomaly and irrelevant. Is there something in particular about those Astros ballclubs and also common to this version that was underrated by the projection systems?
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply