Throughout the week we’re going to be posting some Q&A’s with other NL Central bloggers about the upcoming season. Berselius has written some nice previews for each team so we’re going to try and post those fairly close to one another. These are some very good blogs and I encourage all of you to check them out. Up first is the Milwaukee Brewers and the fantastic The Brewers Bar. Thanks a lot to Jaymes Langrehr for taking the time.
Obstructed View: Brewers pitching staff has been pretty bad over the last four seasons. If we use FIP they rank 26th and they rank 24th by ERA. How much do Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum improve the rotation?
Jaymes Langrehr: I think “pretty bad” is an understatement — we’re talking about some of the worst rotations in club history, aside from the 2008 Sabathia/Sheets group. Adding Marcum alone would’ve given the Brewers a middle-of-the-pack rotation that might’ve been enough to get them within striking distance of playoff contention, but Greinke takes expectations to a completely different level. After the Greinke deal was done, I sat down and tried to determine where the Brewers’ new rotation ranked among the league’s best rotations. They obviously won’t touch Philly, but they weren’t that far off from the likes of San Francisco or St. Louis (pre-Wainwright injury). It’s crazy to think that in one offseason, they probably went from the 2nd-worst rotation in the division to one of the best. Instead of counting down the days until the next Gallardo start, chances are the Brewers will have at least one of Gallardo, Greinke, or Marcum starting in every series.
Obstructed View: Prince Fielder is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. We’ve written a bit about the Brewers financial commitments beyond this season and it appears to be borderline as far as available money to re-sign the star. Will they increase the payroll to keep Fielder around? Do they have any prospects that could replace him if he leaves?
Jaymes Langrehr: Reading in between the lines, it appears that the Brewers have no delusions of re-signing Prince Fielder. Their message to Prince has been clear after avoiding arbitration with him this year — go out and have a great year, we’re willing to talk at the end of the year if you are, but we probably won’t be able to give you a competitive offer. Both sides seem happy with this arrangement. Mark Attanasio has shown he’s willing to spend and operate in the red for a winner, but I think he’s been very clear that he’s not willing to make bad investments. For a team like the Brewers, giving Fielder what he’s asking for (something similar to the Ryan Howard or Mark Teixeira deals) would be a bad investment.
Obstructed View: I live near Kansas City and I’ve watched Greinke a lot over the last several years. I recall reading in a prospect annual after the 2002 Draft about how he was as good as Mark Prior. Prior was an excellent pitcher before the injuries of course and Greinke took a little while to reach his potential. What are you guys expecting out of Greinke as a Brewer?
Jaymes Langrehr: I’ve been careful to temper my expectations for Greinke a bit, just because we don’t know yet how he’ll respond to his new surroundings. It would be crazy to expect him to repeat his 2009 season ever again, but even if he’s half as good as he was that year, this rotation is going to be something else. I do think he’ll enjoy the benefits of pitching to National League lineups, and he seems excited about getting to hit, too. A lot of people are going to compare this Greinke run to Sabathia’s time in Milwaukee, which won’t be fair — Greinke isn’t going to be throwing complete games on short rest every turn through the rotation and putting up sub-2.00 ERAs/sub-2.5 FIPs. But I think the atmosphere in Miller Park will be similar, with the added benefit of the team having Greinke for two years, not just a few months. Honestly, I still haven’t come to grips with the fact that Greinke is a Brewer — it’s still surreal seeing him wear the uniform in Arizona.
If I had to guess, I’d peg Greinke for production closer to his 2008 season than his 2009 season, which would put him at around 5 fWAR.
Obstructed View: Do the Brewers win the division this year? What are your thoughts on how the NL Central ends up?
Jaymes Langrehr: I think they can, but the division is so wide open that I hesitate to definitively say that they’re the favorites. I’d be lying if I said the injury to Adam Wainwright didn’t help the Brewers’ chances, but the Reds and the Cardinals will both be very good again this year, and I actually think the Cubs could give the top three some headaches if everyone stays healthy and you guys get hot.
Right now, I would probably slate the Brewers a game ahead the Reds/Cardinals. I know they’re the clear favorite to many people now that Wainwright is out, but I still have a few concerns about depth and the bullpen. Jonathan Lucroy broke a finger during catching drills early in camp and might not be ready for the start of the season, and Corey Hart looks like he’ll be out for a few more weeks with an oblique strain before taking his first hacks of the spring. I hate the fact that Yuniesky Betancourt will be the team’s everyday shortstop, and I almost hate it more than the fact that the alternatives are Craig Counsell and Luis Cruz. I hate having Carlos Gomez‘s bat in the lineup, but the fact that he’s the only plus defender in the outfield makes it a neccessity. I think the bullpen can be really good, but they also look like they’ll be really young. I am happy, though, that Doug Melvin seems to have taken a break from throwing big money at middle relievers.
If anyone in this division can get to 90 wins, I think they win it. Right now, though, I’m not convinced there’s a team that’s clearly a 90-game winner.
Obstructed View: The Brewers have put a lot of energy into winning right now. A couple years ago their farm system was stacked, but several of the players have now been traded. Prince Fielder is eligible to become a free agent at season’s end. Ryan Braun will begin to earn more money than he ever has. Greinke is a free agent after 2012. I don’t know need to tell you. Focusing on winning now doesn’t mean you’re sacrificing the future and the Brewers haven’t done that, but is there a sense of urgency within the organization to win now like never before?
Jaymes Langrehr: It’s definitely a weird feeling. Those of us that follow the Brewers are used to following the minor league prospects just as closely as the big league club, trying to project the lineup five years from now. Now we can’t, because there honestly isn’t a single impact prospect in the system. The best bats project to be solid fourth outfielders or utility infielders at best, and the best pitchers look like they’re headed for the bullpen or are 5th starter types. But the big league team is stacked, and for the most part, now signed long-term. The organization can likely survive a year or two of toiling at the bottom of the prospect rankings, but this year’s draft — with two picks in the top 15 — is incredibly important.
There is a sense that the team is operating within a two-year window, with Fielder hitting free agency after this season, and Greinke and Marcum potentially doing the same after next season. I don’t exactly buy that, because with a core of Gallardo/Braun/Weeks/Hart, the team should at least be competitive beyond 2012. Signing either Greinke or Marcum to an extension would help extend that window, though, and I think that’s what most fans are counting on.
As far as 2011 goes, though, this season does have a bit of a “whatever it takes to win” feeling to it. It would have been a shame to let this year pass by without ever really finding out what a Fielder-led team could do with decent pitching, so it is nice that Melvin was able to find a way to make it happen (of course, his job likely depended on it). It should be a fun year to watch, but expectations have gotten to a point where I’m having trouble envisioning a year that doesn’t end in heartbreak.
Comments
Are we re-branding as a Brewers blog now?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Are we re-branding as a Brewers blog now?[/quote]
Didn’t you get the memo?
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think it’s crazy how pragmatic the Brewers are being with Fielder. It’s the right move for them (Braun is probably going to need to move back to the infield soon, and Fielder looks like a pleyr who will decline quickly), but I’m just shocked at the manner in which it’s being handled. Then again, I’m used to an FO operating like a house on fire so…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Didn’t you get the memo?[/quote]
My fax machine is on the fritz.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Are we re-branding as a Brewers blog now?[/quote]Half Brewers, half Cubs. Tomorrow it will be half Cubs, half Astros. We’re rebranding as the NL Central. We’re going to be huge.
mb21Quote Reply
This seems to be pre-Greinke/Marcum injury news.
Nice to see someone else optimistic about the Cubs’ chances to play spoiler though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Outstanding interview. Appreciate the perspective from Jaymes. Best of luck.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Didn’t you get the memo?[/quote]He ignored it since there was no cover sheet on the TPS report.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
What’s with all these fucking articles? You people need to slow down so that people have more time to post meaningless filler in the comments.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]What’s with all these fucking articles? You people need to slow down so that people have more time to post meaningless filler in the comments.[/quote]
I think they’re trying to blow their blog-wad since it’s been building up for some time now. I’m sure it feels great.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Jaymes wasn’t as high on the Brewers as I was, but I think he’s being more hesitant than anything.
mb21Quote Reply
I think the Brewers will win 90 games this season. I don’t see how you cannot be bullish on them this season when you consider just how bad their pitching has been in the past couple years.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
You know that stupid fucking hill in Houston that has that flag pole? Berselius reminded me to ask this Astros blogger about that. I got his responses back and he doesn’t mind, but what was hilarious is that he pointed out that they now have cows on the flag pole.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Hector Villanueva]I think the Brewers will win 90 games this season. I don’t see how you cannot be bullish on them this season when you consider just how bad their pitching has been in the past couple years.[/quote]I think they’ll win 90 or more as well assuming they stay reasonably healthy. I really don’t think the division will be that close.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I got his responses back and he doesn’t mind, but what was hilarious is that he pointed out that they now have cows on the flag pole.[/quote]I belive those are for Chick-fil-a though, so it’s forgivable.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You know that stupid fucking hill in Houston that has that flag pole? Berselius reminded me to ask this Astros blogger about that. I got his responses back and he doesn’t mind, but what was hilarious is that he pointed out that they now have cows on the flag pole.[/quote]That place isn’t a ballpark, it’s a shitty carnival funhouse.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
(dying laughing) I don’t mind it as much as you, MO, but that hill and flag pole are two of the three dumbest things that have ever been put in any baseball park ever. I’ve ranted on this before so I’ll save people from hearing it again. I’m nice that way.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I don’t mind it as much as you, MO, but that hill and flag pole are two of the three dumbest things that have ever been put in any baseball park ever. I’ve ranted on this before so I’ll save people from hearing it again. I’m nice that way.[/quote]It’s not just that. There’s also the three different wall heights, that stupid fucking yellow line, and the fucking train.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Oh yeah. You’re right now that you’ve made me think about it more. What’s funny is that it’s a beautiful ballpark in person. It’s arguably the nicest ballpark in MLB, but they do have a decent amount of nonsense going on around there.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Oh yeah. You’re right now that you’ve made me think about it more. What’s funny is that it’s a beautiful ballpark in person. It’s arguably the nicest ballpark in MLB, but they do have a decent amount of nonsense going on around there.[/quote]It’s bizarre. I’m still partial to Kaufmann. That’s a great place to watch a ballgame, especially in the lower bowl. I’ve heard GAB and Jacobs are great, too.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I love GAB as you know. Kaufmann is awesome now that’s it’s remodeled. I wasn’t a big fan before that. Never been to Jacobs. I’m also a big fan of whatever they’re calling Bank One Ballpark these days (Diamondbacks).
mb21Quote Reply
Figured Kansas would come back and win this one. I was enjoying them getting their asses kicked.
mb21Quote Reply
GOOD THING YOU DIDN’T TRADE HIM DURING THOSE TWO MONTHS THEN.
GBTSQuote Reply
I loved Camden Yards and Jacobs and AT&T park. Out of the three of them, Camden Yards would probably get my vote as the best.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Quote box fail?
GBTSQuote Reply
Kansas is getting some ridiculous foul calls in this half.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I loved Camden Yards and Jacobs and AT&T park. Out of the three of them, Camden Yards would probably get my vote as the best.[/quote]
AT&T Park is awesome.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]GOOD THING YOU DIDN’T TRADE HIM DURING THOSE TWO MONTHS THEN.[/quote]WTF is wrong with the Cubs? Why can’t they just STFU?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Kansas is getting some ridiculous foul calls in this half.[/quote]I think the NCAA kindly reminded the refs at halftime it’s not in their best interest to have mid-majors continually reaching the championship game.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I think the NCAA kindly reminded the refs at halftime it’s not in their best interest to have mid-majors continually reaching the championship game.[/quote]They should have informed Florida of the same. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]They should have informed Florida of the same. (dying laughing)[/quote]One is cute. Two is a problem.
If VCU wins this game, they or Butler will pay for the championship.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]One is cute. Two is a problem.
If VCU wins this game, they or Butler will pay for the championship.[/quote]
I’m down with Butler winning the championship. They kind of got robbed last year, and I say that as a Duke fan.
I still like that Duke won though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
For the record, I personally have no problem with NCAA tournament. You just need to accept that it’s pure entertainment, not an actual playoff representation of college basketball.
GBTSQuote Reply
I’ll say that another way: it’s not a sport that actually needs to crown a “champion.” There’s way too many teams, a ton of talent discrepancies, and programs are constantly in turnover. The tournament is great basketball entertainment, but I don’t think it says much about the respective programs. At all.
Although it does say a lot about the coaches.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]For the record, I personally have no problem with NCAA tournament. You just need to accept that it’s pure entertainment, not an actual playoff representation of college basketball.[/quote]For sure. I just hate the fawning over the Cinderellas.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]I’ll say that another way: it’s not a sport that actually needs to crown a “champion.” There’s way too many teams, a ton of talent discrepancies, and programs are constantly in turnover. The tournament is great basketball entertainment, but I don’t think it says much about the respective programs. At all.
Although it does say a lot about the coaches.[/quote]I think that’s right.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
All VCU needs to do to avoid a foul is not touch a Kansas player. Or be near them when they lose possession.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]All VCU needs to do to avoid a foul is not touch a Kansas player. Or be near them when they lose possession.[/quote]
I thought there were about three or four fouls on that one Kansas possession that weren’t called on VCU. Refereeing is extremely inconsistent.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]For sure. I just hate the fawning over the Cinderellas.[/quote]Reggie Miller actually gave Matt Howard credit yesterday for getting fouled at the end of the Pitt game. He said he “knew to get fouled.”
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I thought there were about three or four fouls on that one Kansas possession that weren’t called on VCU. Refereeing is extremely inconsistent.[/quote]Yeah, they just missed a huge traveling violation on VCU, too.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Reggie Miller actually gave Matt Howard credit yesterday for getting fouled at the end of the Pitt game. He said he “knew to get fouled.”[/quote]That’s high praise coming from an all-time flopper like Miller.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
The thing I like about the NCAA tourney is that no one concludes the champion is the best team in the nation. They’re the winner of the tournament. It’s a lot of fun to watch. And when it’s over, you pretty much forget what happened.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Matt Howard is just such a grinder that he willed the opposing team to foul him 95 feet from the basket with under 1 second left in a tie game.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I loved Camden Yards and Jacobs and AT&T park. Out of the three of them, Camden Yards would probably get my vote as the best.[/quote]
To me a lot of whether or not I enjoy a ballpark is how electric the atmosphere is there. I went to Jacobs Field a bunch in the mid-90s when the Indians were great and I loved the place. Went back recently when it was empty and it was just kind of meh.
I liked Camden a lot as well, but I didn’t fall in love with the place in part because it was so empty.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Matt Howard is just such a grinder that he willed the opposing team to foul him 95 feet from the basket with under 1 second left in a tie game.[/quote]GRRRRRRR!!!!! Blue collar toughness!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
This official is not calling traveling, at all, on either team. Someone should just try walking the ball the length of the lane.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Wtf is with CBS’ new YouTube cam? Yes, I want to see entire possessions from a handheld camera in the 16th row.
GBTSQuote Reply
If Kansas could hit from the outside, they’d probably be winning. They can’t buy one from out there, and VCU can’t miss.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Wtf is with CBS’ new YouTube cam? Yes, I want to see entire possessions from a handheld camera in the 16th row.[/quote]Their coverage has been atrocious. The availability of games has been nice, but the coverage has been awful. Bad studio show, bad shots, and bad announcing. And let’s not even get into Sager’s wardrobe.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Do your stats explain the Rams?
EDIT: or was it “predict the Rams?”
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
Jayhawks fans are probably the most insufferable group of sports fans in the country. I couldn’t be happier if VCU won. That Rock Chalk shit makes Cub fans look temperate.
GBTSQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I liked the part where the VCU guy got raped on that rebound by three Jayhawks and no foul was called.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]
[/quote]That shouldn’t be allowed to happen in public. That’s worse than smoking.
AndCountingQuote Reply
OH WHAT A PLAY
GBTSQuote Reply
So I guess it’s okay to bump people out of the way and pretty much throw people on the floor in basketball now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Bracket —–> Fire
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Bracket —–> Fire[/quote](dying laughing) My whole final four has been eliminated completely in the last five games.
GBTSQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New thread up: http://obstructedview.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=113:2011-cubs-a-pretty-blank-slate&catid=37:articles&Itemid=48
AndCountingQuote Reply
I think Marcum will be far better pitcher then Greinke. Also joining this talk of ball parks…I’ve been to Petco, dodger stadium, Angel stadium, AT&T, oakland coliseum, Wrigley, Miller, US Cellular, Progressive field, Tropicana, and target field. Target field was pretty impressive and I was shocked at how nice progressive field was (aka jacobs field). I also really like Petco and AT&T. Both beautiful parks in very nice down town settings, but the atmospheres there were just garbage. I was in San Francisco when they clinched the division last year on the last day of the season, and there were empty seats. As a Cub fan it really bothered me. But beautiful nie stadiums none the less.
Doc32Quote Reply