The NL Cy Young race is down to two at this point. Jake Arrieta's dominating performance over the last few months has allowed him to catch up to Zack Greinke and in many ways, pass him. Either person is deserving of the award and since I don't really care who wins it, this is just a list of their stats for you to look at it.
You Decide 2015
IP: 223 Arrieta, 214.2 Greinke
K%: 27.0%, 23.6%
BB%: 5.7%, 4.8%
K-BB%: 21.3%, 18.8%
ERA: 1.82, 1.68
FIP: 2.40, 2.76
ERA-: 46, 45
FIP-: 61, 71
AVG: .186, .187
HR/FB: 7.8%, 7.0%
W-L: 21-6, 18-3
WHIP: 0.88, 0.85
GB/FB: 2.41, 1.44
oppTAv: .256, .258
DRA: 2.19, 2.08
WARP: 7.6, 7.3
fWAR: 7.0, 5.7
I bolded the stats that are most important to me if I was to determine this. I'm a biased Cubs fan, but DRA, which is probably the best pitching metric around, slightly favors Greinke over Arrieta. This is such a close race that there is no wrong answer. I am a Cubs fan so I'm going to take Arrieta. I watched almost all of his starts and I'm not sure I've ever seen someone be as dominating as he's been. Pedro Martinez in his prime comes closest and that's some ridiculously high praise as Pedro's prime is probably the best a pitcher has ever pitched.
I mostly agree. I haven’t seen enough of Greinke to make a determination on his dominance, but I have only one comp for Arrieta that I’ve ever seen, and that’s Rich Harden when he was traded to the Cubs in 2008. He was just unhittable, and so is Arrieta.
mylesQuote Reply
And when I say only, I mean only Cubs comp. Obviously Martinez and Johan Santana were insanely good, but I wasn’t watching every one of their starts.
mylesQuote Reply
Someone on Sunday Night Baseball made a good point (Kurkjian maybe) that Greinke has been great all season long. His ERA has never been higher than 2. I’m not sure, but that might be as impressive as Arrieta’s complete dominance the last couple months. I’d vote for Arrieta, but I can easily see Greinke winning it and it won’t be an awful choice. It won’t even be a bad one. Realistically, Greinke probably deserves the award as much as Arrieta does.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid,
Disclaimer:
The opinions herein are shaped by years of futility. Any hedging involved stems from the fact that there is just enough intelligence here to have learned that fans—people invested in a particular outcome—are inherently optimistic, therefore must counteract such rosy outlooks with an inverse optimism that is distinct from pessimism and/or realism. This amounts to managing biased expectations, which automatically discredits any opinions, leaving only a dubious entertainment value in its wake.
Obstructed View: Dubiously entertaining, and entertainingly so.
(If I weren’t so lazy on a now tiny phone, I’d post the ForestOfHorrors.gif here.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Pretty much.
I was just messin. I enjoyed the Doubting Theo tumblr very much, because those takes were OTT, but you’d have to be an asshole to judge any of the realism (as you put it) expressed here over the years. Sorry for being an asshole (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Based on that JA is at +3 over ZG.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I didn’t think you were being an asshole. I think it’s good that someone looks back at that stuff to see what we said and how wrong we were.
dmick89Quote Reply
The +/- system for Cy Young decision-making.
mylesQuote Reply
(dying laughing) I’d probably pick two to be honest. K-BB% tells me enough most of the time. I haven’t seen Greinke start, but I know that based on his K-BB% he’s been really good. I know that Arrieta has been better in that regard. While I don’t know the ins and outs of DRA yet, which makes me nervous, I’ve accepted it’s the best thing we have to an ideal pitcher metric. Greinke wins in that one.
I’m afraid the writers who are becoming familiar with some of the advanced stats are going to go to Fangraphs and vote for Arrieta because he has a better FIP. I’d think even the average voter at this point could tell you that while Greinke’s ERA is damn impressive, there’s not a lot of difference between his and Arrieta’s once you adjust for ballpark (ERA- adjusts for league and ballpark and they’re almost the same).
If Arrieta performs well in his final start and picks up his 22nd win, I think he’s going to win the award. I think it becomes a little harder to argue against him at that point.
dmick89Quote Reply
Tangotiger has been publishing periodic updates for the Cy Young races. it’s not very scientific as far as I can tell, but prior to their last starts, he had Arrieta with a 75% chance of winning the award. I think that’s gone up to 85-90 when you include their most recent starts. Very good chance Arrieta wins it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Agreed. there are still enough people for whom wins mean a whole lot. i also think that some voters may swing arrieta’s way because his dominance coincided with the cubs getting super hot and locking down the wild card in like mid-august. thus, arrieta was more integral to overall team outcomes.
not saying that’s correct, just saying i could easily see shitheads like steve rosenberg making that argument.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I think all postseason awards should be decided by fiat, with Jonathan Papelbon being the sole arbiter, as he is the sacred keeper of the Flame of Bangarang, Consecrated Heart of Grit and Hustle, Blesséd Be.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
pretty hilarious that 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks, 4 H, 3 BB is (relatively speaking) a shitty enough start that it takes you out of the cy young race. that really highlights how arrieta has been an absolute freak show over the last few months.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I’m rooting for Arrieta though I can’t complain if Greinke or Kershaw wins. It’s not like the time a Cubs pitcher deserved to win and they gave of to a closer.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
In all seriousness, I’d like Arrieta to win, but there’s not a wrong choice among the three of them. You can make a solid statistical and historical case for any of them, really. It’s a cool thing to have witnessed.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
The only metrics I really care about for Cy Young considerations are runs allowed/ERA, park factor, and innings pitched. Maybe I’d look at peripherals like strikeouts for a tie-breaker.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Yeah, for the BBWAA crowd, those 22 wins would hold more sway than Greinke’s scoreless innings streak(s) and Kershaw possibly topping 300 K, and even Jake’s all-time dominant second half. I’d be disappointed for that to be the reason Jake won, but I’d like to see him win.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Agreed. I can’t remember this happening before.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ve been talking to a lot of Oriole fans who come in to my office to give me shit about getting Arrieta for practically nothing. I asked them why he didn’t do as good for the Orioles and one of the guys I talked to said the Orioles pitching philosophy from Rookie ball to the Majors is terrible. He said one of the biggest reasons is because they discourage their pitchers from throwing Cutters. I don’t know how much truth there is to that but it could make sense as to why Arrieta has been so good with Cubs because he’s living off that fastball, slider, cutter combo he throws. He said he always liked Arrieta and said he had tremendous stuff but got in trouble a lot and the wheels fell off. Maybe taking away an out pitch has a lot to do with that? I don’t know but it was interesting hearing his thoughts on it.
Cool story bro
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
It’s been floated publicly that Arrieta was discouraged from throwing his slutter by the Orioles. An anti-two seamer bias at an org level is a new facet to that rumor, but it certainly lends credence to it.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder,
Oh you’ve heard that too? Then yeah definitely gives it some weight. You would think with the young arms the Orioles have in their system, they would be doing everything possible to have them reach their potential. That Orioles’ window seems to be closing fast.
MuckerQuote Reply
I still think you guys are discounting Yadi’s chances. He knocks off like two full runs from every Cardinals starter’s ERA, that’s like a -10.00 ERA. Easily should win the Cy smh.
berseliusQuote Reply
Mucker,
Every org has their quirks, but some are more head-scratching than others.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Yadi is awarded the Triple Ought, Double Secret Most Valuable Comeback Cy Young Rookie of the Year award annually.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’ve wondered how many players organizations have screwed up over the years. I think Castro is an example of a player who should have just been left alone, but the Cubs tried to make some changes a couple years ago and they didn’t work. He’s never really been the same even since Castro said he went back to doing what he did when he came up.
It’s the organization’s job to do these things, but sometimes it doesn’t work out. I’m not sure how much I blame the Orioles. Arrieta’s delivery is odd and undoubtedly puts additional stress on his arm. It was stress that he might be able to better handle now that he’s older, but I think any organization would have altered his delivery when he was that young.
I think that’s slowly started to change though. We see pitchers with more funky deliveries these days than we did 5 or 10 years ago. That’s a good thing.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think you have to pitch an inning to win. Maybe the Cardinals can have Yadier go out there and retire a batter yet this season. Then he’s a sure thing to win MVP and Cy Young.
dmick89Quote Reply
That’s the most coveted award in sports.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, it seems to me organizations are beginning to focus more on approach and less on mechanical tweaks. Or at least major mechanical tweaks.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://awfulannouncing.com/2015/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-first-take-is-experiencing-record-ratings.html
I don’t want to live on this planet anymore.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’ve heard the same thing as well (about the cutter), and his pitch usage statistics bear it out. Since he came to the Cubs, his slider usage has dropped effectively to zero and his cutter usage has jumped up to around 28-29%, replacing his old slider and some fastball usage. Pitch f/x still classifies most of them as sliders, but I think that’s more of a movement thing. A 90+ mph pitch with that kind of movement is just unfair.
Wasn’t Dylan Bundy’s claim to fame (pre–draft) his cutter? Maybe the Cubs should try to get him for peanuts as well.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I really don’t get the anti-two seamer bias, if true. Why would an organization have an issue with a pitch no more stressful to throw than a four seam fastball and that can induce a lot of weak contact?
Then again, Peter Angelos owns the team, so I suppose anything’s on the table. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Yeah, that’s odd if it’s true. And if it is true, they need new management.
dmick89Quote Reply
The cutter isn’t everything though, it’s not like throwing cutters means that the rest of Arrieta’s pitches started finding the plate. It helps, but a lot of things have improved with Jake.
berseliusQuote Reply
Perkins,
What I heard, at least with regards to Arrieta, was that the issue was his control of the pitch and him being told to abandon it in favor a straightforward slider, which the org felt he could control better.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think that 538 article on his release point was great. It’s changed so much.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jake-arrieta-is-not-your-normal-ace/
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
This. Not enough attention is paid to the role Jake’s insane conditioning regimen has played in his growth as a player.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Fucking Todd never could pass muster.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Also true. It’s certainly a combination of the conditioning, improved mechanics, and pitch usage. I would also guess that the conditioning may compensate for the across the body mechanics (which always was a knock/injury concern for Kerry Wood, IIRC). Strengthening the muscle groups around ligaments can reduce the strain on them a lot (at least that’s what the PT told me after my ACL reconstruction).
PerkinsQuote Reply
He put his college education at Scott Walker’s disposal to fill that gap in his campaign, that one sure worked out (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
Just submitted Obstructed View to Apple’s News feed for their new iOS 9 News app. It’s being reviewed. (dying laughing) I feel sorry for the reviewer. Facepalm logo was included. I hope if they decline us they tell us “good luck with your blog.”
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I wonder if his bicycle shop in my hometown is still in business. I hope not, because I am loyal to the Wilmette Bicycle & Sport Shop, where I got all my Schwinn (and Rawlings) products growing up.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dan duquette doesn’t like cutters
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
dmick89,
“if” they decline us
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
It could go either way.
dmick89Quote Reply
Love the new profile pic, SK.
berseliusQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I, on the other hand, was being a pedantic asshole as a reaction to thoroughly enjoying your post. When I see a tree I particularly like, I cut it down, put it in my living room, and shame it with mismatched trinkets and tchotchkes as the life ebbs from its being. (already dead smiling)
BTW—I haven’t tested it, but it the macro still on? (dying laughing)
Edit: Apparently not. I just need to make a text expander shortcut for it, having already gotten used to typing it out on other forums.
ceruleanQuote Reply
use small letters. I’ll add caps and other variations when I get a chance. Figured the plugin had that covered, but apparently not. Small letters do work though.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.sbnation.com/2015/9/29/9418367/cardinals-rap-song-nope-nope-nope-octopus-gif
berseliusQuote Reply
Saw this at BN recapping a Theo interview:
berseliusQuote Reply
Excellent (dying laughing)
Honestly, I don’t know why I capitalized them.
On Arrieta and the win total, I think that 22 is really damn impressive these days. Part of the “wins don’t matter” I think has to do with the fact that fewer starters go really deep and finish games these days combined with run support being harder to come by while other stats remain eye-popping. The last player in the NL to win 22 in a season was Webb in 2008. (Lee also had 22 that year and Verlander had 24 in 2011.) ERA, however, has often held more sway than wins—see Maddux in the mid nineties when his ERA was an order of magnitude better than anybody else’s. But Grienke’s ERA is not an order of magnitude better. I think that all the other rate and count stats are so dead even that the wins and innings pitched will outweigh the others, assuming the both perform as expected next start(s). And by starts, I am including the wild card coin-flip game for Arrieta, because if Arrieta does put on another clinic, it will be hard to ignore—even though they don’t technically count.
Wandering through the pages on BBref has sparked a trivia question that I believe I know the answer to:
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Note that even the lowercase didn’t work when editing the comment. (dying laughing)
Edit: Not that that’s important.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Scratch that—it works when refreshing the page. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
I didn’t realize Maddux posted a <1 ERA
berseliusQuote Reply
Apropos of nothing: Albert Pujols’ OBP is .301. I mean, I know he’s aging and he still hits for power, but I thought he’d age more gracefully than this.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Are there all that many 1st basemen who age gracefully? I expected better too, but I’m not all that surprised.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Not many, no. He just struck me as a possible member of that rare group of hitters who remains dominant past his 35th birthday (e.g., Ruth, Musial, Williams).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
By “orders of magnitude”, I mean powers of 10. In binary. (But seriously, probabilistically speaking, he was orders of orders of magnitude better.)
I should mention—I forgot that Maddux’s feats were in 1994 and 1995, both strike shortened seasons, so the sample sizes were too small. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Pedro’s 2000 ERA (in a DH league) is even more amazing than Maddux’s.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://doubtingtheo.tumblr.com/post/130164373335/sigh
He does the Lord’s work compiling all the shit from anti-Theo folks.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
heh:
Adjusted ERA+ for the AL in 2000:
1. Martinez (BOS) 2912. Sirotka (CHW) 133
The difference between Martinez and Sirotka had a better year than Sirotka.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Piscotty —> out of hospital.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Any chance of getting this game in?
dmick89Quote Reply
I think the difference between the Doubting Theo stuff and the old OV opinions is that the opinions here, though not glowing of Arrieta, recognized a certain upside to the players acquired, and value to the cost control and thus came to a basic conclusion the trade wasn’t “bad.”
The Theo Doubters all seem to have wanted to keep Feldman like he was some answer to the futility, and that’s just dumb. Plus, most of the tweets have a certain glee like they’re happy Theo fucked up (in their opinion).
aisle424Quote Reply
This. There have been times I’ve disagreed with what the front office did, but I knew they were in a better position to make decisions and I hoped they were right. Those people want to be right and therefore are wanting Thoyer to be terrible.
I’ve never cared about this whole “true fan” shit, but those people can’t actually be Cubs fans.
dmick89Quote Reply
Is the Theo Doubters guy WV23?
dmick89Quote Reply
Traditionalist that I am, I look forward to a future in which all stadiums have retractable domes.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Games played outside > games played inside > rain delays
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Yes.
aisle424Quote Reply
I hope those raccoon bites don’t get infected, RC.
aisle424Quote Reply
Wow. Bryant struck out against that terrible pitcher.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Smith looks so lost. I feel bad for him.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Breaking: The Reds are terrible.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jay Bruce “defense” this inning ????????????????????
berseliusQuote Reply
If Votto wants to bunt, I’m OK with that.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Joey Votto ——-> zero fucks
berseliusQuote Reply
That 3rd pitch was almost halfway in the left handed batters box.
dmick89Quote Reply
aisle424,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
WTF joey votto?
JoshQuote Reply
Should Votto be on suicide watch or something?
JoshQuote Reply
This guy is shitting his pants facing this offense.
mylesQuote Reply
This made me laugh a lot
JoshQuote Reply
Twice!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Votto went ballistic a couple weeks ago, now he’s throwing away at bats. Bizarro. I could see a murder-suey in his future. Sorry Mrs Votto!
JoshQuote Reply
Yeah, it’s not like the infield defense is going to change all of a sudden if Votto drops a bunt hit in.
dmick89Quote Reply
Haren throws a knuckle curve? Did not know that.
JoshQuote Reply
Confirmed: no matter who’s pitching, The Cubs will strike out a lot.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Yeah. That’s just something we have to live with.
JoshQuote Reply
I was surprised how many times the Royals struck out last night. They’re the opposite of the Cubs except for last night.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Well,we were told early on that the Cubs Way was infectuous.
JoshQuote Reply
Disappointed The Cubs didn’t do more damage against that crap rookie.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I just hope the bats wake up before the playoffs.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Remember when Rizzo used to hit homers?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nice start by Haren.
dmick89Quote Reply
Either Dan Haren forgot what year it is, or the Reds are really bad at baseball. It could go either way.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Speaking of crap rookies.
(He was technically a sophomore.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
I remember that game. Took me about 2 years after that to take Haren seriously.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I still don’t totally take him seriously.
JoshQuote Reply
I haven’t for awhile either, but he was good there for s few years.
dmick89Quote Reply
Less than impressive outfield defense tonight.
dmick89Quote Reply
Still won! Woo
Rice CubeQuote Reply
92 wins. Crazy.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://mobile.twitter.com/SFGiantsFans/status/649087784804741120
Now there’s some positive thinking for you.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That raccoon story: Post of the Week
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This strikeout machine offense with no set lineup now owns the third best record in MLB outright. The best team in the AL would be in fourth place in the NL Central.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dmick89,
A little late on this, but the 2011 race between Halladay, Lee and Kershaw was just as close:
Halladay: ERA: 2.35 IP: 233.2
Kershaw: ERA: 2.28 IP: 233.1
Lee: ERA: 2.40 IP: 232.2
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
On a related note, The Cubs haven’t lost a World Series in almost 70 years.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That’s impressive.
dmick89Quote Reply
Plus you know, he grew a sweet beard.
And he stopped smiling.
WaLiQuote Reply
And straightened out the bill out of his hat. I think that’s clearly the reason he’s performed better in Chicago.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
You have to look the part to play the part
WaLiQuote Reply
Even speaking as someone who doesn’t care for beards, his is pretty epic. Not smiling is also key. Ever since I adopted the Costanza “look serious and mildly annoyed” method, everything at work has been coming up roses. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Why is Kris Bryant wearing an Orioles uniform?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/uncategorized/myles-2015-awards-post/
mylesQuote Reply