NLCS: Cubs and Mets Series Preview Part 2 + Game Thread

In Series Previews by berselius176 Comments

series-preview-2014

Part one dealt with the pitchers. This part will focus on the position players, primarily the Mets, though I'll come back around to look at some splits and stuff for the Cubs batters at the end.

I'll rank the likely position players in decreasing wOBA:

OF Yoenis Cespedes (.287/.337/.604, .394): The Mets picked up Cespedes at the trade deadline, and in his two months with the team he's set the world on fire. He hit 17 HR in 57 games and struck out at a 21.7% clip, with only a 5.6% walk rate. He's a free swinger, it's safe to say. Despite being a RHH, he has actually hit righties better than lefties in his career (.348 to .337). When you see that .337 OBP you feel pretty good, but that .604 SLG erases that pretty quick (dying laughing). Defensively, he's an above average LF and below average CF.

OF Michael Conforto (.270/.335/.506, .359): Conforto was the tenth overall pick in last year's draft, and rocketed to the majors this year in a season that saw an absurd wealth of rookie debuts. He got the call-up following months of injury-riddled ineffectiveness by Michael Cuddyer and did a solid job, posting 2.1 WAR in 56 games with solid defense in LF. The Mets have largely shielded him from facing lefties (just 15 PAs) which might account for his relatively high wOBA. Given the Cubs lack of lefty starters, I'm guessing we'll see a lot of him, with Cuddyer pinch hitting if the Cubs bring in Wood or Clay Dick to face him.

1B Lucas Duda (.244/.352/.486, .359): Duda is ptobably the most underrated Mets hitter out there, and one of the rare non-pitcher members of the Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame. He posted a -0.4 WAR over his first four seasons, then posted a .253/.349/.481 line in 2014, his age 28 season, clubbing thirty home runs. He followed it up with an almost identical season this year, though bafflingly enough with only 73 RBI. It's a dumb stat, but given how crazy this Mets offense was this year you figure he would be one of the centerpieces. Fangraphs is not a big fan of his defense, though the metrics themselves (DRS/UZR) seem to think he's pretty average.

3B David Wright (.289/.379/.484, .359): I don't think anyone was more relieved than Wright when the whole Matt Harvey pitch count/innings thing blew up in the media last month, as well as Cespedes's offensive explosion. The longtime Mets franchise player, he always gets the most scrutiny from the extremely rational NY media whenever things were going on but now he's just a guy on a team full of good players. He missed most of the season due to what was initially a hamstring injury, and later tuned out to be a spinal injury (scary stuff). When in the lineup he hit just fine, though small sample sizes abound. He's a decent defender at 3B.

OF Curtis Granderson (.259/.364/.457, .357): I was shocked when I saw in one of the NLDS games that Granderson hit 26 HRs this year – it goes to show how little attention I pay to the AL that I forgot his 40+ HR years with the Yankees. He hit 43 and drove in 106 in 2012 for only 2.7 WAR, Joe Carter would be proud. He hit 20 homers last year for the Mets in what was a largely disappointing season, especially defensively. This year the metrics seem to think he's about average with the glove, and his hitting rate stats all rose about the same as the 40 point rise in his BABIP from last season. He's cut down on his strikeout rate in a big way compared to his Yankees years as well. 

C Travis d'Arnaud (.268/.340/.485, .355): d'Arnaud spent a lot of time on the DL this year, including a two month stretch starting in April with a broken hand and another month long stretch in June-July. When he was in the lineup he produced just fine though – his stats prorated to a full starting catcher's season is around 4.5 WAR. He finished off the season ice cold, however, putting up a .143/.222/.163 line from Sep 15 to the end of the regular season. He went oh-fer in all of the NLDS games except for that crazy 13-7 game, where he had three hits and a homer. That might even have been a below average performance in that game (dying laughing). 

2B Daniel Murphy (.281/.322/.449, .325): To get on an Old Hoss Radbourn rant for a second, there are too many goddamned Murphys in this league. There's this guy, and David Murphy (who I always confuse for each other, if not think they are one person) and former Cubs great Donnie Murphy running around. This is almost as bad as the Demariyus/Julius Thomas 80/88 jersey thing with the Broncos last year. This Murphy is a contact hitter who rarely walks and strikes out less than average, and has a soupçon of pop. Most of his value seems to lie in his versatility, though he's not a particularly good defender at any position.

1B/OF Michael Cuddyer (.259/.309/.391, .306): Cuddyer posted a .414 wOBA with the A's last year in injury-limited time, which was enough to get 2/21 from the Mets this offseason. He repeated the injury-limited part, but not the wOBA, coming in at replacement level on the year. His already low walk rate dropped to 5.9% and he started striking out 50% more often. Safe to say it's not quite what the Mets were expecting. It looks like he's more or less a platoon guy now, so will probably start tonight.

SS Wilmer Flores (.263/.295/.408, .304): Flores is another contact guy who is largely meh with the bat, but is mostly there for his glove. I remember last season when Mets fans feted him as the first competent SS to come out of their system in forever, and competent is probably about his ceiling. As awful as that Ruben Tejada injury was, I'm surprised at how much sentiment I remember seeing/thinking I saw about the Mets being screwed with him out – they're pretty much the exact same player on paper. Tejada's line this year was .261/.338/.350 with a .303 wOBA. Better at getting on base, but a lot less pop. 

CF Juan Lagares (.259/.289/.358, .280): Lagares is a terrible hitter but a plus plus defender in CF. His numbers didn't look as good this year but I'd take more stock in the 45 runs above replacement he put up in the previous two years combined. He might get a start or two, but we'll defnitely see him as a defensive replacement in any game the Mets are winning.

 

The Cubs are facing a lot of RHPs this series, so if they succeed it's probably going to mean big serieses from Schwarber and Rizzo, and maybe Montero or Coghlan, if he manages to find his way into the lineup. With Soler hitting as hot as he is right now, it's tough luck for him. Here's a rundown of all the Cubs regulars' wOBA splits this year

vs LHP

  • Baez (.462) (20 PA)
  • Rizzo (.383)
  • Fowler (.376)
  • Jackson (.350) (30 PA)
  • Bryant (.348)
  • Montero (.342)
  • Soler (.318)
  • Castro (.283)
  • NORF (.264)
  • Russell (.236)
  • Schwarber (,217)
  • Ross (.176)
  • Coghlan (.172)

vs RHP

  • Schwarber (.407)
  • Rizzo (.384)
  • Bryant (.377)
  • Coghlan (.355)
  • Montero (.326)
  • NORF (.325)
  • Russell (.324)
  • Fowler (.320)
  • Soler (.311)
  • Castro (.290)
  • Baez (.265)
  • Ross (.237)

Random news and thoughts

Syndergaard was just confirmed as the Mets game 2 starter, and Matz will go in game 4. He might be available out of the pen this weekend as well. 

OV Podcast #10 is in the books and on the web. I mentioned in the pod that I have the Cubs in 6 as my prediction.  

Quintin Berry replaced Addison Russell on the roster for the NLCS. I hope he can come back before the World Series, if the Cubs manage to get there. 

 

 

To-day's base ball squadrons

Cubs

  • Fowler
  • Schwarber
  • Bryant
  • Rizzo
  • Castro
  • Soler
  • Baez
  • Ross
  • Lester

Metropolitans

  • Granderson
  • Wright
  • Murphy (?!)
  • Cespedes
  • d'Arnaud
  • Cuddyer
  • Flores
  • Lagares
  • Harvey

 

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Comments

  9. Suburban kid

    Q. Can you tell us what Manny Ramirez does for you guys and what it is you feel he brings to the role?
    JOE MADDON: Yeah, I got to know Manny with the Rays a couple years ago, and during that Spring Training we had a lot of conversations and a lot of conversations about hitting. We found out that we’re definitely on the same page. It was really cool to watch batting practice. We’d talk about not just the physical components, I’m talking about the mental. Because he’s really in tuned to the mental side of hitting, and I love that. So that was easy. So then when he came on board, Theo (Epstein) talked and said, I really like what he does with the hitters.

    And beyond that, almost as a cultural coach, the fact that we have so many young Hispanic players to have Manny here to validate a lot of the stuff that we’re talking about really helps, not a little, but a lot. His influence within that group has been substantial.

    When I have a situation or a moment dealing with some of the younger guys there, he’ll come in, we’ll talk about it, and then I just turn him loose. Again, finding out they’re on the same page when it comes to teaching the mental part of the game, and just sometimes the physical part with the instructional component. So he’s been really important to us.

    I love having him here. He’s a positive, upbeat kind of a guy, and so he’s been a really nice fit. I’m telling you, when it comes to Starlin, and Jorge Soler, primarily those two guys, the job he’s done has been spectacular.

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  11. dmick89

    Rice Cube: At the same time, not so sure I want to face that offense in WS when they decide to wake up, so, uh, go Royals.

    Yeah, that makes some sense, but I’d like the Cubs to beat an actual MLB team if they’re going to win the World Series. The royals remind me of a very good Little League team.

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  13. Rizzo the Rat

    My dream would be the Cubs beat the Jays and Rizzo gives a bat-flip for the ages (he’s been rehearsing for that moment, after all).

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  21. Rizzo the Rat

    With the Lester/Ross battery, the Cubs have two soft spots in the lineup (even relative to their positions).

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  44. Perkins

    With the offensive black holes in Ross and Lester and Soler in cold weather, not feeling bullish about the Cubs’ scoring chances.

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  49. Rice Cube

    Perkins,

    I think Lester is doing fine, just not getting run support so far and only really one big mistake. I don’t think the Cubs will be shut out today.

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  79. Rizzo the Rat

    If it were the middle of the order coming up, I’d hate the send. As is, it was probably their best chance.

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  82. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    The primary sponsors of this game are dick drugs and cars for guys who take dick drugs.

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  84. cerulean

    berselius:
    I get it but still, was pretty clear it wasn’t going to be close.

    With 1st and 3rd and Baez stealing 2nd and d’Arnaud airmailing Flores, I tend to agree.

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  89. Rice Cube

    dmick89:
    Great hit by Castro. Killed that ball.

    But, why the fuck wasn’t he on 3rd base?

    It sounded like the 2B cut off the ball? Also, I assume Rizzo was on 1B and didn’t run until he knew it was over the guy’s head, which meant Castro would have had to jog until Rizzo took off…

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  90. dmick89

    Rice Cube, Castro watched it out if the box as if it was either a home run or easy out. Still, considering the bad throw home, Castro should have been on 3rd.

    That said, I'm not really sure why Ross was pissed off at Castro unless they had the play on and Castro missed the sign.

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  116. Perkins

    On the plus side, at least Maddon can probably PH for Ross the next time he’s due to come up. Gotta think that’s it for Lester.

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  118. cerulean

    Perkins:
    On the plus side, at least Maddon can probably PH for Ross the next time he’s due to come up. Gotta think that’s it for Lester.

    Precisely. How about a crooked number?

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  130. Perkins

    Have to hope they’ll have better luck against Thor, given how many times he warmed up before actually pitching the other night.

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  132. Chris

    How do you leave Lester in for the 7th? The bullpen is an asset Maddon. Why PH LaStella instead of Montero? 3 runs behind is so much different than 1.

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  146. FonteYES

    I, for one, welcome our new Good Trevor Cahill overlord.

    What kind of black devil magic did Thoyer have to perform for Cahil to magically become good?

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  151. cerulean

    FonteYES:
    I, for one, welcome our new Good Trevor Cahill overlord.

    What kind of black blue devil magic did Thoyer have to perform for Cahil to magically become good?

    These ain’t the Sox.

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  163. FonteYES

    Perkins,

    And its not even like Ross is superior defensively. Montero is by far the better framer. This isn’t like with the Red Sox where Varitek could not catch for Wakefield. Come on Joe, you’re better than that.

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  164. Rizzo the Rat

    Yeah, knuckleballers are challenging enough to need personal catchers. The only thing difficult about catching Lester is his inability to stop the running game, but this is the Mets we’re talking about.

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  165. Author
    berselius

    Tough loss, but I only had one or two nit picky complaints. Thought that Castro send was dumb and would have pulled Lester earlier, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. The Cubs had their chances in the seventh and eighth and just didn’t get them in. At least this isn’t like losing to the Phillies, Harvey was dealing today.

    *inserts boilerplate strike zone complaints*

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  168. dmick89

    berselius: Harvey was dealing today.

    He was. That’s the only reason I’m not more upset. He was outstanding tonight. Not sure why the Mets brought him back out in the 8th, but whatever. Still think Castro should have been at 3rd, but in the end, it wouldn’t have mattered. Would have taken Lester out sooner. I’d probably have taken him out after the 5th. Definitely after the 6th. They just got beat. Even if Montero was in there (which he should have been), they’d have gotten beat.

    Schwarber has as much raw power as any player ever at his age. Bryant has tremendous power, but Schwarber has now hit 20 home runs at the MLB level in half as many plate appearances as Bryant has (27 HR).

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  169. Author
    berselius

    FonteYES,

    Things are good if crazy busy. I moved to New Mexico a year or so ago, and am enjoying living in the mountains. Who knew that NM wasn’t just all roadrunner/breaking bad style desert?

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  174. dmick891

    berselius:
    FonteYES,

    Things are good if crazy busy. I moved to New Mexico a year or so ago, and am enjoying living in the mountains. Who knew that NM wasn’t just all roadrunner/breaking bad style desert?

    But there is a lot of blue meth, right?

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