NLCS: Mets @ Cubs Game 3

It's time for some of that famous Cubs magic. Oh, nevermind. I guess they'll just have to win the old fashioned way. 

Lineups

Mets
Curtis Granderson, RF
David Wright, 3B
Whatever Murphy, 2B
Yoenis Cespedes, CF
Lucas Duda, 1B
Travis d'Arnaud, C
Michael Conforto, LF
Wilmer Flores, SS
Jacob deGrom, P

Cubs
Dexter Fowler, CF
Kyle Schwarber, LF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Starlin Castro, 2B
Jorge Soler, RF
Miguel Montero, C
Kyle Hendricks, P
Javier Baez, SS

223 thoughts on “NLCS: Mets @ Cubs Game 3”

  6. Let’s fucking do this. To continue the last thread, may the baseball and babip gods be kind to the Cubbies tonight. Go Cubs Go!

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  8. WaLi:
    Let’s fucking do this. To continue the last thread, may the baseball and babip gods be kind to the Cubbies tonight. Go Cubs Go!

    Don’t tell me what to do.

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  20. Okay, Cubes, I’m back in Chicago now so you can start winning again please. Otherwise this vacation’s going to be a lot less exciting.

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  21. I’ll admit that Soler has an upside that Coghlan doesn’t, though. And that Coghlan is terrible against LHP.

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  22. Rizzo the Rat:
    I’ll admit that Soler has an upside that Coghlan doesn’t, though. And that Coghlan is terrible against LHP.

    I like him better at this point against righties too. It brings up an issue I have with with Maddon that I didn’t expect. He likes to play the hot hand despite evidence against an expected increase in performance. I’d probably have both LaStella and Coghlan in the lineup.

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  67. Anybody else see that that StateFarm commercial and automatically fill in the next logical scene after “I’m never letting go”—or is it just me.

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  68. fueledbyvinyl:
    Hendricks is really scaring me with these pitches down the middle

    The movement on his fastball tonight though is encouraging. Seems like he’s getting more movement than he’s had.

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  69. cerulean:
    Anybody else see that that StateFarm commercial and automatically fill in the next logical scene after “I’m never letting go”—or is it just me.

    You’re not alone.

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  78. JonKneeV:
    This home plate ump is just brutal. Just brutal. We need Jason Motte to get tossed giving the ump shit.

    When did the strike zone data on Brooks Baseball stop being available in real time? My eyes are telling me the Mets are getting calls the Cubs aren’t.

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  82. I’m just waiting for the inevitable ejection when Maddon has to blow up over the strike zone. The zone tonight is dildos.

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  91. Isn’t the book on Murphy to throw the hard stuff? I know Hendricks isn’t a fireballer, but aren’t all his homeruns (at least against the Cubs) of the off-speed variety? I’d think he pitch him hard inside and soft outside.

    I mean, this guy is 30 years old and had a .770 OPS during the season with 14 HRs. This doesn’t just happen.

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  112. JonKneeV:
    I don’t like pulling Hendricks this early.

    I don’t either. He was solid. Don’t see how switching to Richard was an upgrade for that inning.

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  113. Rizzo the Rat:
    JonKneeV,

    Why not? Pitchers get worse reach time through the order and pinch-hitters are much better than pitchers at hitting

    Might as well pull every pitcher after 4 innings then.

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  117. Rizzo the Rat,

    You’re using maybe your best pinch hitter with 2 outs and none on. Hendricks was pitching pretty well and Joe is going to have to expend his bullpen today, when he’s probably also going to have to do it tomorrow.

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  132. I don’t know if I can even get mad at this series. It’s like all the bad things that could possibly happen (short of injuries) have happened. Worst possible sequencing of baserunners when Arrieta and Lester are pitching? Check. Lots of balls hit hard straight at defenders? Check. Good starting pitching from the Mets? Check. Weird shit happening (thinking that dropped third strike and Daniel Fucking Murphy)? Check.

    About the only thing I can get objectively pissed off about is the gigantic strike zones. And that’s been a feature of the entire season.

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  141. Misplays by Baez, Montero, Bryant, Soler, and Schwarber. All in one game. That’s not how you win baseball games.

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  145. I’ll probably skip watching the World Series this year. They’re more fun when they’re the Giants vs. some random AL team.

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  146. dmick89:
    Here’s something I didn’t expect to say: I’m a lot happier about the 2003 NLCS than I am this one.

    This one feels like such a wasted opportunity. Even if you think the Cubs were playing with house money this year, they have been fucking good. And they convincingly beat the only two teams better than them in the first two rounds of the postseason.

    What’s irritating is that the NL Central will probably be similar over the next few years, while the East and West don’t project to have more than one (maybe 2) strong teams each. So the Cubs will already have a tougher road. Barring injuries or dramatic production drop-off, the Pirates and Cardinals will probably be pretty damn good for the next few years. I don’t think the same is true of the Nationals or the Giants.

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  148. Rizzo the Rat:
    I’ll probably skip watching the World Series this year. They’re more fun when they’re the Giants vs. some random AL team.

    I have no interest in whether the Royals or the Mets win the WS. Hope they both lose.

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  149. dmick89: I have no interest in whether the Royals or the Mets win the WS. Hope they both lose.

    Rooting for the meteor as long as it’s when KC has a home game. I live in Queens. (dying laughing)

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  150. Perkins:
    I don’t know if I can even get mad at this series. It’s like all the bad things that could possibly happen (short of injuries) have happened. Worst possible sequencing of baserunners when Arrieta and Lester are pitching? Check. Lots of balls hit hard straight at defenders? Check. Good starting pitching from the Mets? Check. Weird shit happening (thinking that dropped third strike and Daniel Fucking Murphy)? Check.

    About the only thing I can get objectively pissed off about is the gigantic strike zones. And that’s been a feature of the entire season.

    This.

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  152. Cubs lose by losing.

    It’s been a few years since that last happened. It’s looking like you’ll be SOL Myles, especially with the Cubs shitty luck and poor play.

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  155. Rizzo the Rat: This doesn’t look like a 97-win team.

    Even the best teams look like shit over a 4 game stretch every season.

    It happens. Players can only do their best. They can’t will shit into being.

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  156. JonKneeV:
    Think of how different this game would be if the first inning didn’t feature a load of shit.

    I’m surprised Maddon didn’t get himself tossed after that. It was nonsense. The ump was better as the game went on, but the damage was already done.

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  157. dmick89,

    I have plans to hit one of the local bars with some of the Cubs fans here, I feel like I should show up in a funeral suit (dying laughing).

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  158. What’s really going to suck is all the journalistic meathead hot takes we’ve got coming. Nick Fucking Vlahos and his Hendry-fellating leading the charge, no doubt.

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  162. Perkins: What’s irritating is that the NL Central will probably be similar over the next few years, while the East and West don’t project to have more than one (maybe 2) strong teams each. So the Cubs will already have a tougher road. Barring injuries or dramatic production drop-off, the Pirates and Cardinals will probably be pretty damn good for the next few years. I don’t think the same is true of the Nationals or the Giants.

    This is also why I’m not so sure the Cubs are playing with house money. The Cubs will be good, but they probably won’t be any better than those two teams. As GW said the other day, this was more than likely the last NLCS that Jake Arrieta pitches in for the Cubs. A lot of things have to go right to get that far and the odds are against even the very good teams of getting to that point.

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  164. Rizzo the Rat:
    Much as I’d like to blame this on bad umpiring, the Cubs were just sloppy today. Just, ugh.

    Agreed, but it sure is rubbing a big pile of salt into that wound. Large grains of salt.

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  167. Perkins: Rooting for the meteor as long as it’s when KC has a home game. I live in Queens. (dying laughing)

    I’m thinking something a little less destructive (I live an hour from KC so meteor is no good for me either (dying laughing)). I’m thinking more along the lines of another Departure like the one in HBO’s The Leftovers. Not 2% of the population. Just 60 or so people. That’s all. Nothing too earth shattering. They could take half the Royals fan base too. That wouldn’t be so bad. It’s only about 55 more people.

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  168. Rizzo the Rat:
    I honestly stopped caring about dubious ball/strike calls after the fifth or sixth defensive miscue.

    It wasn’t too bad after the 1st or 2nd inning in my opinion. By that last miscue, it was game over anyway. I didn’t really care about any of it.

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  169. I disappeared back to the conference bar after the second inning or so. Probably a wise decision (dying laughing).

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  171. dmick89: This is also why I’m not so sure the Cubs are playing with house money. The Cubs will be good, but they probably won’t be any better than those two teams. As GW said the other day, this was more than likely the last NLCS that Jake Arrieta pitches in for the Cubs. A lot of things have to go right to get that far and the odds are against even the very good teams of getting to that point.

    All true, but there’s nothing for it. Not seeing a lack of effort, so there’s really noting to be done. It’s the nature of the playoff beast. Not too hard to find 4 game stretches where the Cubs were unbeatable and the Mets were godawful. This just happened to be one where the Cubs played less than stellar, caught exactly zero breaks, and the Mets were at their peak and even got a little weird variance on their side with the Murphy explosion. I can’t get mad at any of it. I feel like I’ve seen the wizard behind the curtain. Playoffs are bullshit to begin with. I don’t even know if I’ll be that happy if the Cubs win the whole thing anymore. It doesn’t mean to me what it used to because it’s an artificial construct that disregards what a 162-game season is designed to tell us.

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  172. Smokestack Lightning,

    I’m not saying that. Shit happens over the course of the season. Bad stretches, good stretches and so on. Of course I understand that. I was calming people after the 2007 and 2008 sweeps. Shit like that happens all the fucking time.

    All I was saying is that this “house money” stuff I keep reading really isn’t true. Shit doesn’t get any easier for the Cubs next year or the year after that. They are still stuck in a virtual tie (if that) with the Cardinals and Pirates. It’s worse to be those 3 teams than the teams in the West and East, which I think is what you were trying to say.

    I also agree with what you say about the playoffs. Nothing this team did in the playoffs was going to take any of the enjoyment I had this year away. It was a great season and they unfortunately played like shit for a few days when it counted. Tough luck.

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  176. dmick89: which I think is what you were trying to say.

    Probably. Sorry. I’m quite a few beers into the evening at this point. (dying laughing)

    And yeah, I agree about the “house money” comment. It feels like that because of the expectation level going into this year, but that won’t exist next season and that’s all that matters going forward. From here on until this core breaks up it’s playoffs or bust. And sad to say, it’s always more likely to be bust (though it could go either way).

    Man. Playoffs are just cruel. But I can’t get pissed at this team for coming up short. Just the way it goes.

    dmick89: Nothing this team did in the playoffs was going to take any of the enjoyment I had this year away.

    Yep. That and the Pirates play-in game and the Cardinals series. Regardless of how this team fares in the coming years, those are some damn good memories and aren’t tarnished by the finally final result.

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  177. dmick89:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    All I was saying is that this “house money” stuff I keep reading really isn’t true. Shit doesn’t get any easier for the Cubs next year or the year after that. They are still stuck in a virtual tie (if that) with the Cardinals and Pirates. It’s worse to be those 3 teams than the teams in the West and East, which I think is what you were trying to say.

    That’s the frustrating part. Even with seemingly every advantage, the Cubs have a tougher road to a deep playoff run over the next few years by virtue of their division.

    The Nationals lose a lot of talent over the next couple years, and the Giants got old fast. It’s not like there are any powerhouse franchises in the East and the Dodgers should have an easy time of winning the West. So any time a team goes this deep and doesn’t seal the deal, it feels like a wasted opportunity.

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  178. On the plus side, maybe Epstein signs an extension over the offseason and a good amount of the front office stays intact for a few more years.

    I kind of get the feeling that Theo’s job is done once the Cubs win a World Series, and it’d be kind of nice to see a few more years of the Superfriends running the organization.

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  180. dmick89: It wasn’t too bad after the 1st or 2nd inning in my opinion. By that last miscue, it was game over anyway. I didn’t really care about any of it.

    What? The big mistakes (Rizzo, Bryant, Soler, Schwarber) were well after the sixth and seventh innings. They were huge and mostly happened when the game was within 1 run.

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  181. I didn’t watch the season due to extreme personal turmoil. The postseason was all I had. Fuck you, you god damn losers!

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  183. Rizzo the Rat: What? The big mistakes (Rizzo, Bryant, Soler, Schwarber) were well after the sixth and seventh innings. They were huge and mostly happened when the game was within 1 run.

    Sorry, I meant “in the sixth and seventh innings.”

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  184. They only mistake in the early innings that I remember was the Baez error, which amounted to nothing, since Granderson was caught stealing anyway. The sixth is when the defense (and the game) really went downhill. Most of the mistakes lead to runs scoring (Soler’s misplay being the lucky exception).

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  185. Rizzo the Rat: What? The big mistakes (Rizzo, Bryant, Soler, Schwarber) were well after the sixth and seventh innings. They were huge and mostly happened when the game was within 1 run.

    Part of what pissed me off about those miscues is that they destroyed any kind of righteous indignation I could have worked up about the strikezone. If you give shit like that away, you should lose. I mean, not out of any moral order, but it shouldn’t be surprising and it makes taking any kind of umberage hard to justify.

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  187. Urk: Part of what pissed me off about those miscues is that they destroyed any kind of righteous indignation I could have worked up about the strikezone.If you give shit like that away, you should lose.I mean, not out of any moral order, but it shouldn’t be surprising and it makes taking any kind of umberage hard to justify.

    Truth be told, I think I’d rather watch them get outplayed than get screwed by an umpire (which would just make me angry). Then again, I’d rather they be outplayed by a team that’s playing great, rather than playing poorly themselves.

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  188. Rizzo the Rat: Truth be told, I think I’d rather watch them get outplayed than be mad at an umpire. Then again, I’d rather they be outplayed by a team that’s playing great, rather than playing poorly themselves.

    Yeah, if those mistakes don’t happen, and the Mets just play amazing ball, that’s a lot more fun.

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  191. dmick89,

    OK, I understand the confusion. I could have been clearer. I was just saying that I didn’t care about umpire mistakes after the Cubs defense made them irrelevant.

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  192. Smokestack Lightning: Someone needs to inform these fucking tools that miscues and errors happen during the regular season too.

    True, but they piss people off a lot more in love he postseason. There’s a reason we remember that each infielder for the Cubs made an error in game 1 of the 2008 LDS.

    I don’t care if people are pissed about it, but the dumbasses will draw the wrong conclusions from it. Oh well, I don’t read those guys anyway so I won’t even notice. I got too burned out reading what stupid journalists have to say.

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  194. cerulean,

    I shit inspiration.

    The Cubs are a pot of water that everyone watches in hopes of seeing it boil. If seeing that pot boil is the only real satisfaction you gain from following the team, you’re going to be disappointed. I gave up hope of ever seeing it happen a few years ago and I refuse to let those fuckers trick me again.

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  195. Assuming they lose again tonight, at least the trend says that they will make it to the NLCS again next year (and get swept again).

    Therefore I predict the Cubs win the pennant in 2023 and they will win the World Series in 2031 AND 2032.

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  196. Millertime: Ryno

    That’s more like it.

    I haven’t started looking at game footage for this season yet, but Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith looks amazing at first glance. He’s a lightning-quick tasmanian devil with great instincts. I felt like I was watching Patrick Willis again. UCLA’s Myles Jack and Arizona’s Scooby Wright also stood out to me.

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  197. Ryno,

    Which reminds me, I’ll need you Bears fans to tell me about the defense under Fangio and Donnatell. Fangio was a 3-4 guy at Stanford and when he first came to SF, but they switched to mostly 4-3 Under and nickel once Aldon Smith grew into a three-down player. What’s their personnel like this year?

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  198. berselius: What’s your feelings on Kaepernick these days?

    He hasn’t developed as a passer and it looks like he won’t.

    Harbaugh knew Kap’s shortcomings (progressions, movement in pocket, facing blitz) and designed an offense around that (easy reads, bootlegs, etc.) The new regime doesn’t seem to get this and wants him to be something no one ever taught him to be. Plus ownership ran off the best QB coach they had in years, but don’t get me started on those jerks.

    Anyway, SF needs to trade Kap to PHI where he would be amazing. He can be an above average QB on a team with a coach who doesn’t try to put square pegs in round holes.

    If they keep him, they must bring in a coach that can teach him the nuances of the position. He needs to learn read defenses, go through progressions and not drop his eyes against a rush or he’ll add to the narrative of “spread” or “running” QBs being unable to transition.

    Incidentally, that narrative annoys me. 99.9% of college QBs fail to become good NFL starters. Spread, runners, pro-style, white, minority, male, female, whatever. There are never really more than 10 good QBs in the NFL at any given time. It’s a hard position to play, so stop lazily dismissing prospects for irrelevant qualities when there a few legitimately relevant qualities that go unnoticed.

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  201. Ryno,

    I’m not the most observant, but it seems mostly 3-4/Nickel, depending on what the offense is doing.

    They have some of the pieces to run a 3-4, but not all, and very little depth. The D-line is ok, but they really only have 1 guy to play NT. McPhee has been a solid edge rusher, but their ILB are terrible. The CB are also terrible.

    Scheme wise though, they seem to be getting more out of their defense than they have any right to.

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  202. What really sucks about baseball is that this might be the furthest the Cubs get for a couple years. They could get eliminated in each of the next two NLDS series. Or lose the wild card game, since they might not even win the division every year.

    Maybe this is also what makes baseball awesome, though. Winning a world series seems like one of the most inconceivable sports championships to win, so if they ever do win it, it’s probably going to be due to the most inconceivable shit imaginable. It’s no wonder stuff like this becomes so memorable.

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  203. Ryno,

    Would you say that NFL teams routinely try to make QB prospects into Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning when pretty much no prospects CAN be one of those players. Instead of developing an offense to the QBs strengths (RG3, Kap, Cutler, etc.).

    Re: Bears defense, they’ve been running a 3-4 and a nickel package with 2 down lineman with 4 linebackers.

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  205. Josh:
    Guys, I’ll be honest with you. I’m starting to get worried.

    I haven’t checked Matt Trueblood’s twitter yet, but I think his odds for the Cubs winning the series have dropped all the way to 80%

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  206. Millertime,

    I thought Fangio did a good job in SF, though he did have a lot of talent to work with.

    Looking at CHI’s roster, it looks like they need help at every level of the defense. They should be in a position to draft BPA and land an impact player early.

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  207. JonKneeV,

    I’d say that’s a pretty good assessment of the NFL.

    The best analogy I’ve heard about playing QB is that it’s like doing math problems while you’re in a barfight. It’s rare to have a player who’s capable of handling the mental AND physical aspects of the position.

    What SF did offensively in 2012 was unique, imo. They used their power-running/play-action offense when Alex Smith was in and then switched to a heavy pistol/read-option approach when they started Kap. Even the WR routes were different conceptually.

    You can tailor an offense to fit a limited QB, but it will limit the offense. What SF did with Kap in 2012 worked great. It didn’t work quite as well in 2013 and it was pretty bad in 2014. Kap didn’t develop and defenses learned his tendencies.

    So the short answer is that teams don’t typically tailor their offenses because it’s only a short-term solution, imo.

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  210. I’m not going to panic. I’m sure Myles will re-run his numbers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs odds somehow increased, or something.

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  211. dmick89,

    I might be going out on a limb here, but it could be due to a night with a frustrating strike zone, a million defensive miscues, and Daniel Murphy turning into Barry Bonds.

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  213. Millertime:
    I’m not going to panic.I’m sure Myles will re-run his numbers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs odds somehow increased, or something.

    I, too, refuse to panic, and will (not-so) helpfully point out that if the Cubs find a way to win tonight, they actually have a puncher’s chance at taking the next two after. Lester vs. Harvey at home should be a slight tilt in the Cubs’ favor. As human as Lester has been at times he is more than capable of shutting down any lineup on a given night. And if Arrieta can summon that Cy magic one last time, might be able to do just enough against Syndergaard to take game 6.

    Game 7 is a shitshow on paper, but at that point it’s all hands on deck and you’d have to imagine even Lester would be available for a couple of innings. Hope for chaos, hope panic has paralyzed New York by then, keep it close, and they fumble it away late.

    Not gonna happen, of course, but the idea of it should be enough so I don’t mope around all day and it gives a little more meaning to a Cubs win tonight, even though any win at this point is almost certainly just a temporary stay of execution.

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  214. Fangraphs has the Cubs’ odds at between 7 and 8% of winning the NLCS, so they have a better than 50% chance in at least a couple of the games.

    That said, it’s pretty likely today is the last day of the 2015 Cubs season. I can’t get too pissed off about the result…they won 97 games and thoroughly beat the Pirates and Cardinals in the playoffs. It’s been a hell of a ride.

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  215. All I know is if I’m Joe and Theo, I’m making the Cubs watch ’04 Sox-Yankees all fucking day. Fuck batting practice. Fuck…whatever else it is they do before games, I dunno, running around, and make ’em watch games 4-7.

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  216. berselius,

    If anyone could, it would be him. Even as a 49ers fan, I have to say I don’t think anyone has ever played that position as well as he does. He might be the best ever.

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  220. Cubs have had 9 winning streaks of 4 or more games.
    Steven Matz has appeared in 6 games in his major league career. Tonight will be his 7th.
    In his SSS of MLB work, Matz has a K%, BB%, and FIP very similar to 2015 Kyle Hendricks.
    Matz had 90 innings in AAA this year. He had a 27% K%, but also a 8.6% BB%.
    Between AAA and MLB, his 2015 FIP puts him somewhere between Lance Lynn and Jason Hammel.
    His 45% groundball rate in the MLB puts him close to Michael Wacha.
    Matz hasn’t pitched into the 7th inning since July.

    In short, I like our chances on offense tonight.

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  221. So, I get that the “playing with house money” thing is a little empty. We certainly can’t depend on any near future team doing as well as or better than this one. But I do think its heartening that this team has (1) a core of talented (mostly very) young players, and (2) increasing rather than decreasing financial flexibility, and (3) a rationally-minded front office that pays attention to resources and data and understands the crapshoot nature of the playoffs and the way that making it there successively increases the chances of getting through them. Does any of this offer any guarantee? Absolutely not. But I’m not sure what else I’d really wish the team to be armed with if I wanted to maximize its chances going forward, short of moving into a different division or just printing their own money like the Dodgers. Rocket launchers maybe? I do think that we are virtually guranteed of having a team worth watching for the near future, and that they have a better chance of ending up in the playoffs again during that time than any team from this organization has had in the last decade or so. That’s pretty satisfying.

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  222. soft rain began to fall in the late innings of Tuesday’s NLCS Game 3 Cubs 5-2 loss to the Mets, coming down harder as Jorge Soler took a called strike three to end the game.

    If that doesn’t epitomize everything you’ve ever been through as a Cubs fan, I don’t know what does

    Al Yellon!

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