Every now and again, we here at Obstructed View like to get together in a chat room and discuss our favorite Star Wars characters and how George Lucas is ruining them, but we also sometimes talk about baseball and the Cubs.
In this portion of our latest discussion, we talked about Theo, Carlos Zambrano, and Andrew Cashner.
mb21 : I was thinking about what you guys think was most surprising this year (positive or negative)?
berselius : Can we include this week’s events?
mb21 : most surprising thing, player, event, place, fan, whatever…
mb21 : If we include this week’s events, we’ll all say the same thing.
Aisle 424 : Ryan Theriot getting to the World Series?
berselius : Mine is tangentially related
AndCounting : Biggest surprise to me was probably Hendry being fired almost a month before anybody knew about it. I thought he was gone, but I never would have guessed they’d keep it a secret in a million years.
berselius : and this Theo stuff isn’t that big of a surprise looking back
mb21 : To me, it would have to be Carlos Zambrano. I knew the guy had issues and I knew that teammates weren’t especially fond of him, but that shit just got weird.
Aisle 424 : I think one of the biggest surprises was how much I do like Matt Garza.
berselius : the biggest surprise to me was seeing MO and 424 saying complimentary things about Tom Ricketts
Aisle 424 : Nobody is more shocked than I am about that. The question I now have is did he “learn” or was this all part of the plan?
mb21 : Pretty impressive that Ricketts could keep the secrets he has so far.
Aisle 424 : That and he actually seems to be backing up his talk about building up the Cubs system in the development areas. Between his spending on the draft, his spending in the Dominican on a facility there, and now his near-hiring of Theo Epstein, I have far less problems with his wearing Harry Caray glasses or walking around the stands signing autographs.
berselius : Yeah, agreed on the Z stuff
mb21 : If MO gives a compliment to Lance Berkman I’ll be surprised.
berselius : If MO gives a compliment to TLR I’ll be surprised.
AndCounting : Yeah, Z being run out of town was something we all saw coming more or less. The way it happened was truly unique and surprising.
berselius : I’d never have guessed that it happened the way it happened, but then again I’d never have guessed what could have been the spark anyway.
mb21 : Exactly, AC. Really, the only question was how it was going to happen and it never occurred to me it could happen that way. The end of a very strange and very good career.
mb21 : What was the spark? I don’t even remember.
berselius : Unless he was spotted eating dinner with Ozzie again
mb21 : Can the Cubs trade Z?
AndCounting : A pitch that sailed behind Chipper Jones.
Aisle 424 : …and his cleaning out his locker.
berselius : Z got hammered, was left in, arguably deliberately threw at Chipper (twice) to get ejected, then left the clubhouse early
mb21 : Ryan Theriot almost went deep.
berselius : threats of retirement, etc. etc.
berselius : They can trade Z, but the market is pretty much Miami
Aisle 424 : I think the market could be larger if the Cubs eat just about all of his salary. If Z was a free agent, I bet someone, somewhere would sign him for $1 million hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and if he doesn’t work out, he can be released.
AndCounting : Any chance Theo keeps Zambrano around?
mb21 : I forgot about hitting Chipper. That was cheap. Z had been frustrated all season and some of it rightfully so.
berselius : They’ll have to eat a lot of the contract, but probably a little less from FLA
Aisle 424 : I just looked him up on B-Ref and he was worth .7 WAR with only 145 innings pitched. I don’t think it is a stretch that someone could think they get 1 WAR out of him at the end of a rotation for dirt cheap. So there could be a market, just not a bidding war.
mb21 : If there’s anybody that would keep Z around, it’s Theo. I think it depends on who they hire as manager. I still say it’s not likely.
Aisle 424 : Exactly. Theo is probably not going to give much of a damn about the shennanigans. He is not that far removed from dealing with Manny on a regular basis, so this is not unfamiliar territory for him.
berselius : It’s more likely now than it was a month ago but not that much more likely
mb21 : I agree with that, b.
Aisle 424 : Me too, the other thing to consider is whether Zambrano even wants to stay at this point. He may be saying the right things to the press, but his agent may be talking a different story behind closed doors.
mb21 : What about Andrew Cashner’s future?
berselius : Actually, maybe even less
berselius : The big posthoc knock on Theo this year was clubhouse chemistry
AndCounting : Good point, b.
mb21 : The clubhouse chemistry issue that was supposedly a big deal in Boston probably does make it less likely.
Aisle 424: I think that all depends on how much of an issue Theo actually thought it was. The only reason any of this was a problem was because they lost 20 games in September. If it was the Cubs, we’d hear about how day games kill the Cubs chances.
berselius : I don’t give a damn about it. As many pointed out, if the Red Sox had won more games everyone would be pointing to the guys hanging out and playing video games as a sign of great chemistry.
Aisle 424 : Yep.
berselius : But that’s an easy knife for NDB at all to keep sharp
AndCounting : I don’t understand how Cashner can get enough innings as a starter. How durable can he be over the course of a season? Has he ever pitched a full season as a starter at any level?
berselius : Have they made a decision about him yet? IIRC he’s starting in the AFL but that could just be to give him more innings
berselius : I guess the Cashner decision is going to be re-evaluated by Theo anyway. The chances of Cashner —–> SP are MUCH greater than they were earlier this year
Aisle 424 : I don’t know about that. From what I’ve been reading about Theo, he seems to think that the latest market inefficiency is in the health of players. I don’t fully understand, but I think he’s more willing to take a risk on injury-prone guys and taking more extreme (and costly) measures to keep them healthy.
mb21 : No, Cashner has never pitched a full season. I don’t see how he can get the innings to be a starter either. Not without seriously risking injury.
berselius : They can try to baby him next year
berselius : Didn’t the sox do that with Bucholz?
mb21 : I think most starts in the AFL are for about 3 innings.
AndCounting : I could see him becoming a closer, unless Epstein toys with that “we don’t need a closer” philosophy again.
Aisle 424 : All the different ways that Theo can toss away the standard rulebook for operating a baseball team is staggering, if he is allowed to run the team without meddling from Tom and Crane when things might get a little controversial.
mb21 : I guess my question is this: can you get more value out of Cashner in the bullpen or babying him for the next year or two as a starter? Common sense says starting, but are we even sure he can do it? I’m not.
Aisle 424 : Yeah, I think he has to decide how realistic on a risk/reward level it would be to keep Cashner healthy as a starter vs. how much help he would be to the team as a reliever. And also whether he could have a medical training team intact soon enough to fulfill his vision of increasing the health of the players.
berselius : Eh, they have Marmol and Marshall. I don’t think they’ll move both of them
mb21 : If they moved one, I could see Cashner being the 8th inning guy. Part of me would like to see him earn a spot in the rotation and I’m just not certain he has yet.
berselius : I don’t even remember what his injury was. He’s hitting 100 in the AFL so I’m not that worried. Not like what happened with Randy Wells this year.
mb21 : He had a shoulder injury.
AndCounting : I think he’s healed fully, but I can see whatever caused the injury in the first place reprising itself if he comes back as a starter. But I’d still take the gamble and just bring him along slowly.
berselius : yeah, I agree with Adam. Have him start, but limit him to 100 innings or so and make sure they skip starts when they can.
mb21 : I guess if they do it slowly I don’t have an issue, but I think you’re looking at no more than 120 innings next year and probably no more than 160 the year after.
mb21 : That being said, I can completely understand if they make the decision to leave him in the bullpen.
Aisle 424 : I would rather they start stretching out Marshall if they really need an extra starter that badly. I think he’d stretch out a lot faster and has never had injury issues.
berselius : Of course, the other thing we’re not mentioning is that he hasn’t really established whether he can be an effective starter, health aside.
Aisle 424 : And that is the problem with Marshall as well, except for the health part.
AndCounting : True. I guess there’s no better time than next year to try to prove he can.
berselius : He looked great in his first MLB start, and has been injured. Still a lot of uncertainty even without the health stuff.
mb21 : That’s my point, b. I really don’t know if he’s earned it. My guess is that if he’s a starter next year it’s because the Cubs have nobody else.
berselius : Yeah. There better be a good reason if F7 gets a rotation spot before him
Aisle 424 : I think I would need Theo to personally show me his calculations if that comes to pass.
mb21 : I just worry about injury. He was never really stretched out. Not since being drafted after 2 years in the bullpen.
mb21 : Cashner has basically had a reliever’s workload now for 4 to 5 years.
Comments
(dying laughing) if it takes you more than one guess to figure out who that was written by you haven’t been paying attention.
mb21Quote Reply
This.
I hated the trade when it happened, but it ended up being worth it. If HJ Lee goes on to become a star (not likely) then it won’t be, but to get a guy like Garza you have to trade some talent. Garza is a good pitcher and I really liked watching him pitch.
mb21Quote Reply
Z’s bat was also worth .7 WAR.
ACTQuote Reply
Z’s bat was also worth 1.0 fWAR, but his arm was only worth 0.9. Maybe he’s in the wrong line of work.
ACTQuote Reply
So which one of you was Ki-Adi Mundi? I vote for AC because he’s never around anymore.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BWARP only values Z at 0.4, because it includes defense (FRAA says it was lousy).
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]So which one of you was Ki-Adi Mundi? I vote for AC because he’s never around anymore.[/quote]If you read it closely you can tell. If you don’t want to do that, it was 424.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Z’s bat was also worth .7 WAR.[/quote]I would assume any team trading for him would be an NL team. He’s not of much value to an AL team, but with his bat, if he can play a full season, he could be worth a decent amount in the NL.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If you read it closely you can tell. If you don’t want to do that, it was 424.[/quote]That picture was appropriate to this post on a number of levels. That number was two.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]So which one of you was Ki-Adi Mundi? I vote for AC because he’s never around anymore.[/quote]Is that his name? I just refer to him as the Conehead Jedi. In later versions, Lucas will digitally make him declare that someone narfle the garthok.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Is that his name? I just refer to him as the Conehead Jedi. In later versions, Lucas will digitally make him declare that someone narfle the garthok.[/quote]I believe that is his name. He sensed the clone troopers had turned on him in Episode III and then was gunned down.
If we are taking this literally, that means one of you had to be whiny bitch Anakin. Which seems rather self-deprecating.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Why isn’t this on the front page?
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Why isn’t this on the front page?[/quote]It was below the last thread. I moved it to the top.
mb21Quote Reply
This post is about motherfucking Star Wars.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]This post is about motherfucking Star Wars.[/quote]
GBTSQuote Reply
I don’t know if the topic has been broached yet, but I wonder who Theo & Crew have in mind for coaches…I would hypothesize that a better pitching coach, for example, would be able to help Marmol fix his mechanics and also figure out how to make Dempster, Z and Wells suck less. Although at the same time, the new pitching coaches were able to make Matt Garza into a better pitcher, so maybe that doesn’t really matter and the pitchers just suck (dying laughing)
I’m aware that there have been articles written about how Demp and Wells aren’t actually broken, but from what I saw with my own lying eyes, they kinda did suck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t remember what conclusion I came to when looking at Wells, but he shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence as Dempster. Wells decline isn’t too surprising. Dempster’s decline is and it’s largely the result of stuff he didn’t control. Doesn’t change the fact he sucked in 2011, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to have that much bad luck again next year.
I would say Wells is at best a number 5 starter. Dempster is still a number 2 or 3 at worst.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t remember what conclusion I came to when looking at Wells, but he shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence as Dempster. Wells decline isn’t too surprising. Dempster’s decline is and it’s largely the result of stuff he didn’t control. Doesn’t change the fact he sucked in 2011, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to have that much bad luck again next year.
I would say Wells is at best a number 5 starter. Dempster is still a number 2 or 3 at worst.[/quote]I recall the luck/variance thing playing a huge part in your articles. Here’s hoping Dempster bounces back then. This sort of leads into the discussion about Z…if he has one year left (sunk costs aside) wouldn’t it make sense to ride it out instead of sending tons of money for him to pitch elsewhere while also splurging for CJ Wilson or trying to outbid the Yankees or whoever for CC?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It might make sense, RC, but I think Z wore out his welcome.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It might make sense, RC, but I think Z wore out his welcome.[/quote]So even if Theo and his calculator/slide-rule say that Z is the most sensible solution (not saying he is) the fan base would probably freak out if Z was the #3 starter? That’s too bad. Wonder what the Marlins will give back for $10MM.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]So even if Theo and his calculator/slide-rule say that Z is the most sensible solution (not saying he is) the fan base would probably freak out if Z was the #3 starter? That’s too bad. Wonder what the Marlins will give back for $10MM.[/quote]There may be unmendable fences in the clubhouse. It may be something where Ricketts has just had enough and wants to move on. I’d bet my life that Zambrano has probably already been discussed and both Theo and Tom know where the other is coming from in regards to how they will deal with it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) if it takes you more than one guess to figure out who that was written by you haven’t been paying attention.[/quote]That article was terrible, even by his shitty standards. The premise doesn’t even make sense: “announce something soon, or else your legacy will be tarnished, even though I have no idea what’s holding things up and there might be good reasons why you’re not announcing anything and even though you’re the owner and have a lifetime to make your legacy, if you don’t announce something by the time I demand it, you suck and deserve my stupid-ass ire.”
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Demp was 7th in the league in strikeouts and 10th in K/9. His control could be pretty rough, but as long as the K’s keep coming, I’m not worried. His BABIP should normalize, especially if the Cubs’ defense improves.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]That article was terrible, even by his shitty standards. The premise doesn’t even make sense: “announce something soon, or else your legacy will be tarnished, even though I have no idea what’s holding things up and there might be good reasons why you’re not announcing anything and even though you’re the owner and have a lifetime to make your legacy, if you don’t announce something by the time I demand it, you suck and deserve my stupid-ass ire.”[/quote](dying laughing) what a fucktard
Suburban kidQuote Reply
It took him this long to figure out that Ricketts was an easy target, so now h’es going to keep swinging away until all his stupid little jokes run out.
He is Exhibit A when showing journalists who only write what they think their readers want to hear. Forget about reporting facts, or providing analysis from a position of greater access than 99.99999% of fans, we’re just going to write whatever schlock we think people are already thinking.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]That article was terrible, even by his shitty standards. [/quote]
[quote name=Aisle424]
He is Exhibit A when showing journalists who only write what they think their readers want to hear. Forget about reporting facts, or providing analysis from a position of greater access than 99.99999% of fans, we’re just going to write whatever schlock we think people are already thinking.[/quote]
The difference between journalism and literature is that one is unreadable and the other isn’t read.
/TheWildeMan
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]There may be unmendable fences in the clubhouse. It may be something where Ricketts has just had enough and wants to move on. I’d bet my life that Zambrano has probably already been discussed and both Theo and Tom know where the other is coming from in regards to how they will deal with it.[/quote]That’s really too bad. I really wanted to see him eject another umpire while in a Cub uniform. Oh well, happy memories…
FOX is making enough money and doesn’t really care about the ratings, by the way:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/18/fox-we-have-no-complaints-about-the-world-series-ratings/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It took him this long to figure out that Ricketts was an easy target, so now h’es going to keep swinging away until all his stupid little jokes run out.
He is Exhibit A when showing journalists who only write what they think their readers want to hear. Forget about reporting facts, or providing analysis from a position of greater access than 99.99999% of fans, we’re just going to write whatever schlock we think people are already thinking.[/quote]Maybe he’s really really impatient. Or slightly miffed that Ricketts isn’t telling anybody anything. It’s annoying, but with this kind of media in the city, I don’t blame the Cubs for keeping mum.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Z might have worn out his welcome, and he may be persona non grata in the clubhouse, but won’t it be a new clubhouse with entirely new management? Hendry’s gone, Quade has got to be gone, that bad apple Aramis is almost definitely gone too. Clubhouse leaders Wood, Dempster, Pena and Soriano could all potentially be gone.
Unless Ricketts really feels strongly about it, I could see Z being given another chance knowing that it’s his last year.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
That’s a good point, SK. Then again, if they’re going to move that many guys, why wouldn’t they move Zambrano?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Z might have worn out his welcome, and he may be persona non grata in the clubhouse, but won’t it be a new clubhouse with entirely new management? Hendry’s gone, Quade has got to be gone, that bad apple Aramis is almost definitely gone too. Clubhouse leaders Wood, Dempster, Pena and Soriano could all potentially be gone.
Unless Ricketts really feels strongly about it, I could see Z being given another chance knowing that it’s his last year.[/quote]With this much change, I don’t think we can definitively say that anything is off the table. But I seem to remember Ricketts saying Z would be gone without actually saying it. Something like he had a hard time envisioning a scenario where Z would be back. Maybe this is the scenario, though.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Yeah, that’s exactly what he said, 424.
mb21Quote Reply
I forgot Reed Johnson. He’s probably gone too. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I forgot Reed Johnson. He’s probably gone too. (dying laughing)[/quote]No way, Reed is a gamer.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Saying that left open a tiny possibility. It’s possible he couldn’t envision a scenario where Theo Fucking Epstein would be his Uber GM. And, if Epstein thinks keeping Z is the right move, would Ricketts veto him this quickly?
I don’t know, could be the Z train has left the station and Theo doesn’t give a shit. Just sayin’ is all.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]Saying that left open a tiny possibility. It’s possible he couldn’t envision a scenario where Theo Fucking Epstein would be his Uber GM. And, if Epstein thinks keeping Z is the right move, would Ricketts veto him this quickly?
I don’t know, could be the Z train has left the station and Theo doesn’t give a shit. Just sayin’ is all.[/quote]At this point I would pose the question…
Which is less likely:
1. Carlos Zambrano wearing a Cub uniform next year
2. Theo Epstein is not the new Cubs GM/President/whatever
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If Theo wants Zambrano, he’s a Cub. You don’t hire Theo and then tell him how to run the show. That’s a good point, SK.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]At this point I would pose the question…
Which is less likely:
1. Carlos Zambrano wearing a Cub uniform next year
2. Theo Epstein is not the new Cubs GM/President/whatever[/quote]After a certain amount of grunting and straining, I’m going to have to take Number 2.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]After a certain amount of grunting and straining, I’m going to have to take Number 2.[/quote]Isn’t technology wonderful? You can answer hypothetical questions while on the crapper!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/talks-at-a-stalemate-theo-as-president-only.html
mb21Quote Reply