On Ryan Braun’s overturned suspension

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick89154 Comments

I’m not here to exonerate Ryan Braun or declare that he’s definitely clean. I have no idea if he used steroids or not, just like I have no idea if Roy Halladay has used steroids or whether Dee Gordon has used steroids. – Dave Cameron, Fangraphs

This is nonsense. Let me first say that I am not even close to one of the loud, angry fans that Cameron mentions. I couldn't care less when he tested positive because I don't care who uses steroids and who doesn't. If PED usage was dwindled down to 1 or 2 players in professional baseball I might feel differently, but a large enough group of players continue to take these drugs so I wouldn't have enough rage in me to be outraged every time someone is caught. Then again, I may not even care if only 1 or 2 were using. It's a meaningless baseball game that collects meaningless statistics. I'm as much a fan of those same statistics as many are, but they are meaningless.

That being said, it's nonsense to think we know as much about Ryan Braun when it comes to PED usage as we do Roy Halladay. Ryan Braun has tested positive for synthetic testosterone and Halladay, to my knowledge, has not. This is information because the false positive rate, while higher than some may think, tells us that there is a damn good chance that Ryan Braun took the drug. We have no such piece of information when it comes to Halladay. We can be damn sure there is a much, much higher chance that Braun used steroids than there is that Halladay did.

In reality, the only thing we can ascertain from the information we have is that Bruan may or may not have used, and there’s no real way for us to actually know.

He's right that there's no real way for us to know just as there is no real way for us to know if Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens used. For that matter, there's no real way for us to know if Andy Pettitte was even being honest when he came clean. It's entirely possible he admitted to something he didn't do so the media would stop hounding him. People confess to things they didn't do all the time for one reason or another.

Cameron is absolutely wrong when he says the only thing we can ascertain is that Braun may or may not have used. We can calculate the probability that Braun used based solely on the false positive rate. We already know the only reason the suspension was overturned is because of some technicality. I'm glad it was overturned because the rules weren't followed. Braun deserved to have his suspension overturned because of it. If we factored in other pieces of information I think we could even be more certain that Braun used. If you'd like to factor in the off chance that his sample was actually misplaced or tainted or what have you because of the technicality, do so, but it's not going to make much of a difference when determining the probability of him having used steroids.

Every human not named OJ Simpson believes that OJ Simpson is guilty of murder. There's more than enough evidence to reach that conclusion even though a court of law did not find him guilty. Remember, they did not find him innocent. It's not the court's job to find a person innocent. It's to determine whether or not there is enough evidence to find them guilty.

Cameron continues by saying the only fair thing we can say is "I don't know" when it comes to whether he used or not. We know he tested positive. We know that positive result triggered a second and more reliable test. He tested positive again. We know MLB overturned the suspension only on a technicality. We know as much about Braun's likely usage today as we did yesterday. That information doesn't lead one to believe the only fair thing to say is "I don't know."

I guess I don't know if he used, but I have reason to believe that the probability he used is probably higher than 95%. So if the only fair thing to say when you have a probability that high is "I don't know" then I guess for every person convicted of murder that's all we can say too. Unless there are multiple eye witnesses and the person confesses, it's unlikely any murderer can be said to have a 95% probability of having committed the crime.

In reality, the only fair thing to say is that MLB screwed up and they were punished for it even though Braun more than likely used. If MLB insists on punishing those who break the rules then MLB should also be punished when they fail to follow them.

I wrote all of the above before checking out a thread on The Book Blog and MGL nails it.

Braun won his appeal fair and square and probably for good reason. It had (almost) nothing to do with his actual guilt or not, but so what?

Chain of custody rules are in place NOT because when they are typically broken it significantly affects the chances that a player is guilty or that the results will get tainted. They are in place so that an egregious or intentional breach that WOULD affect a result does not occur.

It is like when the police illegally break into a person’s house without a warrant and find all kinds of contraband. Just because they broke into the house unlawfully. that does not mean that they guy isn’t guilty. But the judge throws out the arrest because if he didn’t police would ignore the Constitution and break into people’s houses all the time.

It is the exact same thing with this. If the arbitrator let’s the ban stand regardless of the chain of custody issue, because he doesn’t think that it affected Braun’s innocence or guilt (which it likely didn’t), then that would open the door to the chain of custody rules being broken all the time and more egregiously and it would open the door to someone tampering with someone’s sample.

I couldn't agree more. Braun should definitely have had his suspension overturned, but he more than likely used the drug.

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  1. josh

    Every human not named OJ Simpson believes that OJ Simpson is guilty of murder.

    False.

    Private Investigator William Dear wrote a book titled O.J. is Guilty, But Not of Murder in which he proposes a theory that Jason Simpson (OJ’s son) was the murderer (he was obsessed with Nicole, I guess) and that OJ’s crime was an accomplice to covering the crime up, which is why his DNA was present at the scene and so forth. A bit kookie, but mildly interesting.

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  2. josh

    So, why don’t they just retest him? I suppose the answer has to do with the MLBPA, but surely if he’s dirty he’ll get caught the next time they are able to test, right? I admit I don’t know much about how steroid testing works.

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  3. josh

    oh okay. And presumably he’ll have learned his lesson and not used again for fear of getting caught. So perhaps it will have had the intended effect (deterrence). Or not. Or whatever.

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  4. Berselius

    @ josh:

    Josh, steroids go through your system relatively quickly. That’s why the players are tested so often. IIRC when players are cycling it’s just a few days until they’re back to normal.

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  5. josh

    @ Steve Swisher:
    I was simply refuting the statement that no one believes he’s innocent. William Dear believes OJ is innocent. Normally, I wouldn’t nitpick, but I’ve had a few and I’m keyed up and a little sick.

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  6. josh

    @ Berselius:
    So really, they have to get lucky to actually catch someone anyway, which implies it’s more of a deterrent. I’m surprised anyone can do it, then. I’d be paranoid even if I’d never touched the stuff in my life. But then again, professional athletes are a different breed of cat.

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  7. DamageControlFreak

    I’m pretty confused of what happened during the Buran testing. Usually a PED drug test consists of 2 samples taken and tested, just to make sure. Is this also the case with MLB?

    And mb, your idea that the probability of false positives is the same as the probability of him being guilty is very wrong.
    Imagine somehting like an AIDS test. This test has a reliability of 99%, meaning that 1% of test results are false positives. So when you test 100,000 random people, a full 1,000 will come up with false positives.
    However the probabilty of them actually being infected depends on another factor: The actual frequency of AIDS among 100,000 random people. If one in 500 people is infected, this means it’s 200 people in a group of 100,000.
    So all combined, this translate into 200 correct alarms of the AIDS test plus 1000 false postives. In the group of people having tested positive, the probabilty of them being infected is approx. 17%. Obviuosly, this number is nowhere near the 99% reliabilty of the test.
    Coming back to MLB and Ryan Braun, as long as we hqve no idea of how common or uncommon PEDs are in MLB, we cannot judge the probabilty of Brauns test being wrong.

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  8. mb21

    Braun tested positive in both the T/E test and CIR test. The T/E test isn’t the most reliable test, but it’s the cheapest. If a person has unusual markers it triggers the second test, which is quite reliable. Braun had a second urine test done on his own that was negative, but how much can we really trust that? First, the sample from him was months after the positive test so it’s mostly useless. Second, can we really trust whoever tested that sample?

    @ DamageControlFreak:
    Excellent points that I hadn’t considered.

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  9. Eddie

    Yeah I found this to be one of Cameron’s more aggravating pieces. Braun’s urine sample was stuffed with synthetic testosterone somehow. Occam’s Razor tells us it’s probably because he ingested it.

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  10. Mercurial Outfielder

    Ockham’s Razor =! the simplest explanation

    It’s a principle of parsimony, not an exhortation for simplicity. Descartes’ explanation of how blood flows through the body is quite simple. And also quite wrong. Ockham’s Razor simply states that one should not multiply entities where it is unnecessary to do so. But that doesn’t mean one should not multiply entities. Sometimes complex explanations are required, and nowhere in Ockham’s corpus does he forward the notion that one should always seek the simplest explanation.

    /pedantic twit

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  11. fang2415

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Yeah, yeah, I know. But Occam’s Razor abuse is widespread in the population.

    Personally, I think the Cartesian theory of blood flow has been the best argument for Braun’s innocence all along. (dying laughing)

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  12. Aisle424

    Clevenger on beating Campana in bunt contest:

    “I think it separates the good bunters from the guys that are fast that think they can bunt”

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  13. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:

    (dying laughing)

    I’m also of the mind that the fact that this contest came down to a 3rd string catcher and a 5th OF says everything that needs to be said about this contest.

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  14. Aisle424

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    I’m also of the mind that the fact that this contest came down to a 3rd string catcher and a 5th OF says everything that needs to be said about this contest.

    No, no, no. Clevenger beat Campana in the FIRST ROUND.

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  15. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:

    It has ROUNDS? This is right up there with the College of Coaches, the priest in the dugout and the towel drill in the Pantheon of Stupid Things the Cubs Have Done

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  16. Mish

    fang2415 wrote:

    But Occam’s Razor abuse is widespread in the population.

    Throw it in with “ironic” and “begging the question.”

    BTW, being a pedantic twat is one of my favoritest hobbies. That and fucking twat.

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  17. ACT

    Mish wrote:

    Throw it in with “ironic” and “begging the question.”

    I really hate the second one. It just begs the question of why people use that phrase if they don’t know what it means.

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  18. fang2415

    @ ACT:
    The thing about misusing ironic is that that itself is usually ironic. It’s win-win, even for idiots.

    Anyway, to avoid these pitfalls, I never use “begging the question”, and I always use “ironical”.

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  19. ACT

    “Begging the question” has use, I suppose, in philosophical discourse, but little use in casual conversation. It’s a case of laymen trying to sound smart by using a technical term without understanding it. Of course, it’s become common enough by now that a lot of people use it without knowing where it came from.

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  20. fang2415

    @ ACT:
    I disagree that the phrase doesn’t have much use in casual conversation. After all, it’s frequently useful in conversations, many of them casual.

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  21. mb21

    @ Eddie:
    I think the fact two separate samples tested positives tells us more than enough. I think it really boils down to one of two things: Braun took steroids or someone intentionally tampered with his pee. I believe there’s a very small possibility of tampering. Braun took steroids. I don’t really think there’s any question of that. I also don’t care. Not one bit.

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  22. Pezcore

    Looks like the hobbit has found his precious

    The idea of Campana bragging about being the gods gift to bunting is pretty funny. I still want to see the Wood/Sveum matchup.

    Gollum wrote:

    Did Campana mind being booed by his teammates?

    “It was fine,” he said. “(Alfonso Soriano) always told me ‘They don’t boo nobodies.’”

    I wonder if this quote was manufactured by the midget political machine? Is he suggesting a Soriano/Campana alliance? I have well wishes for the kid with the vaguely latin-sounding name now. Jet forever out of the box, Fat Tony.

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  23. mb21

    The bunt tourney is just for fun, but it tells us nothing about a person’s ability to bunt. Geovany Soto could win the tourney, but nobody on this planet would say he’s a better bunter than Campana. Campana’s bunts don’t have to be perfect. It’s a waste of his time trying to perfect it.

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  24. Suburban kid

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    towel

    The priest in the dugout thing was just silly. What was dumb was doing it right before game time with national TV cameras right there to capture it.

    The College of Coaches was flat-out stupid (self nitpick – I hate “flat-out”)

    I have no problem with the towel drill.

    But one thing I would definitely add to the pantheon of stupid things is the Bullpen Test.

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  25. Suburban kid

    The bunt tournament sounds like fun. Maybe they could also have a hitting it the opposite way tournament, a hit and run tournament, and a not-making-an-error tournament. We do drills similar to that with our rec league team and it makes doing reps more fun.

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  26. Aisle424

    I liked the bunt tournament idea. Fans always want these guys to practice shit like this constantly, but as MB said, there are usually higher priorities, so maybe they usually go through the motions with their bunting drills and it doesn’t do a damn lick of good.

    But by adding an element of competition to it, it probably makes guys take it a bit more seriously because they don’t want to lose. So then maybe they actually improve by a hair when it counts. Maybe not, but I bet there aren’t that many guys who would want to lose in the first round and get made fun of by teammates, so they try and work to improve instead of laying down a few bunts where they don’t care at all where they go.

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  27. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Pezcore:
    I doubt Campana is even the intended target in that piece. More meant to make Soriano look arrogant, to my mind.

    Also, MB and I have both caught Sullivan getting creative with quotes. He’s not above it. The Scott Templeton of Chicago sportswriting.

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  28. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:

    the vast majority of the guys in this competition, will not lay down a single bunt the entire year. This contest is a monkey fucking a football. So much wasted time. Like SK said, you want to make a worthwhile competition, you do the same sort of thing down the foul lines and make guys work on hitting to the opposite field. Something they might actually have to do. A bunt competition is the phony hustle of practice routines.

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  29. Mercurial Outfielder

    The worst thing about the bunt competition is that the lazy scribes will point to it every time something remotely good happens as the result of a bunt.

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  30. Mish

    Speaking of the Red Sox clubhouse,. I am in dire need of fried chicken in East Lakeview. Anyone know any spots other than Popeye’s?

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  31. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Mish:
    What’s wrong with Popeye’s?

    Try Crisp on Broadway by Oakdale. It’s Korean style fried chicken, and it’s quite good.

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  32. Mish

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    No, East Lakeview is different. It’s south of Edgewater.

    And Popeye’s is awesome. But Mish has no vehicle so it has to be somewhat close so I can walk or transit to it. That’s why I said East Lakeview, because something in my part of Lakeview makes sense.

    Stop being a pedantic twat, MO. (dying laughing)

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  33. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Suburban kid:
    Technically, Edgewater is on the other side of Uptown from Lakeview, so yes. But when I was growing up in Uptown, most people took Uptown to end at Sheridan. East of Sheridan to the lake and North of Addison until you get to Devon-ish (East Rogers Park) was Edgewater. But I have no idea how people draw the lines now. My city neighborhoods map says I’m wrong, as well, so maybe this just confirms what everyone already thought: that people from Uptown are fucking odd and poor.

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  34. Aisle424

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    Yeah, more is going to be made of it than it is worth, but this team isn’t going to hit for power, so get ready to put a blindfold on since 2012 could very well end up being the Year of the Bunt.

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  35. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Aisle424:
    If they’re relying on bunts, we’re all going to need a blindfold.

    Bob Brenly, OTOH, will just need a lot of tissue paper and hand lotion.

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  36. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    I agree. I actually like the idea. No reason not to stress fundamentals and if you can do it while having fun, great. I was more making a point about how perfecting the bunt isn’t something Campana needs to spend a shitload of time doing. It doesn’t surprise me that he was beaten in the 1st round, but have a bunt hit contest and Campana wins easily. I’d rather Campana work on something like getting on base, which is how he’ll stick around the league for awhile.

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  37. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I think it’s a waste of time in the sense that it’s not going to make the Cubs one bit better, but spring training is too long anyway. If the players are having fun then I think it’s a great idea. You’re going to get better production out of these guys if you let them have fun than you would if Sveum came in and acted like a drill sergeant. How many runs will it add to the team? Through bunting alone I expect 0 runs to be added, but wouldn’t be surprised if the contest improved the Cubs by about 5 to 10 runs overall because the players got to have a lot of fun doing it. Sveum has to earn their respect and this is a way for him to do that. He gets to stress fundamentals while also creating a competition. These guys are competitors. Sveum could have had a shit contest and they’d have fun. May as well have one about something that is relatively important.

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  38. GBTS

    Aren’t people who say they live in “East Lakeview” just people who don’t want to admit they live in Boystown? (dying laughing)

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  39. Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    So it’s not a handedness platoon, but rather a pitching matchup based platoon. I assume you’d have to scout the opposing pitching staff pretty well to know their pitch tendencies then, but I kind of like that idea.

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  40. Berselius

    Zimmerman ————–> 6/100 extension with the Nationals. My gut reaction says the Nationals got a great deal.

    It didn’t replace his current deal, so they actually have him for 8/126

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  41. ACT

    @ mb21:
    I think Campana could work on his bunts more. It’s not as though his bunts were spectacularly successful last year. Of course, the infield was playing him ridiculously shallow all the time.

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  42. mb21

    ACT wrote:

    I think Campana could work on his bunts more. It’s not as though his bunts were spectacularly successful last year. Of course, the infield was playing him ridiculously shallow all the time.

    I guess what I’m saying is that any improvement he makes on bunting is going to be minimal. He doesn’t have to be perfect with his bunts because of his speed.

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  43. Smokestack Lightning

    @ Berselius:

    Not sure I agree. They’ve got Anthony Rendon on the way and given Zimmerman’s injury history, seems to me it would have been smarter to wait a little longer before extending him. But perhaps they plan on moving Rendon to another position.

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  44. WaLi

    @ Suburban kid:
    I like Kayak, but that doesn’t get the real small airlines. What I find I have to do is go to the airport(s) you are traveling to and see what airlines fly into there and then check those airlines individually.

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  45. WaLi

    @ Mish:
    Yeah, but you live in Chicago so you have more options. All the flights on Kayak for me have to go through Atlanta (Delta) or Charlotte/O’hare (American Airlines) for me, so I need to look at the smaller airlines (Allegiant, Direct Air, etc) to see if there is a direct flight. Also Southwest doesn’t show up on Kayak for some reason.

    Also, finally caught up to Season 4 of Parks and Rec and when “Batman Ben” came on I literally figuratively was (dying laughing) and thought “This could be Mish”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0LQV_OQ_Sc

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  46. GBTS

    mb21 wrote:

    GBTS wrote:
    If LeBron, Tebow, Kate Upton, and Dave Matthews played Survivor at the SEC Championship, and Tebow tried reaaaaally hard, would bubbles die at the height of orgasm?

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  47. WaLi

    @ Mish:
    Damn. I just showed my wife the original trilogy a few weeks (unfortunately with all the changes) but I didn’t show her the prequels. I wish I saw this ahead of time. I guess if I want to show her the prequels I’ll just pretend Episode I never existed and show her II and III.

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  48. Mish

    @ WaLi:
    I have an infinite number of gripes with the prequels, but one of them is that the first one is almost completely unnecessary. The plot was basically the same in the first two movies (Palpatine creating a controversy to consolidate power), two of the worst aspects of the mythos (which are not mentioned again) are brought up in TPM (the immaculate conception and midichlorians), and of course Jar-Jar’s prominence.

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  49. GBTS

    @ Mish:

    She found herself sim­i­larly both­ered by R2D2 having a jetpack in the pre­quels but not the other films, and all I could tell her was “yeah, it bugs me too.”

    (dying laughing). God the prequels suck.

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  50. Mish

    I could probably spend the rest of my life writing one post a day on how awful the Star Wars prequels are and I’d probably die before I get all my thoughts out.

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