One Last Roster Prediction Attempt Before the Official Announcement (UPDATES)

In Commentary And Analysis by Rice Cube47 Comments

The Cubs have completed the official Cactus League slate, with two more random exhibitions against the White Sox (allegedly still at Sloan Park per the ticket buying thingy on the Cubs dot com website) as the final tuneup before Opening Day on Thursday. I think most of the decisions have been made by now, and while rosters aren’t due in until Thursday morning, I feel like we will know who’s going to Chicago. Consider this the last attempt to nail the 26-man roster (minus Seiya Suzuki, who will start the season on the backdated injured list) before we get more clarification or an official announcement sometime Monday or Tuesday, most likely.

Pitchers

Now that it is officially official, we can nail down the starting rotation:

  1. Marcus Stroman
  2. Jameson Taillon
  3. Justin Steele
  4. Drew Smyly
  5. Hayden Wesneski

I wouldn’t say any of them was a true “ace,” but they all seem to have their share of deception, generating tons of ground balls, and mostly appearing competent, which with the defense can go a long way, so I’m probably happiest with this part of the team.

Here’s the bullpen situations, with my notes:

  • Adbert Alzolay – no options remaining (all contractual quirks courtesy of Arizona Phil), but he’s been solid all spring, so this seems a no-brainer for the multi-inning guy
  • Javier Assad – had an excellent spring and WBC, also likely a multi-inning guy UPDATE: he’s in!
  • Brad Boxberger – they gave him actual multimillions (like, two million and change, but still), so here’s your setup guy and backup closer to start the season
  • Michael Fulmer – another guy who got not-smallish money, and the de facto closer for now
  • Julian Merryweather – no options remaining but has been solid in spring as well so they’ll probably let him go a bit to justify the claim
  • Token lefty – if Brandon Hughes is healthy, I think he gets this spot, otherwise they’re probably going to carry Anthony Kay (who would need a roster spot, see below), because even if some of these guys are split-neutral, having no lefties in the bullpen seems kind of weird
  • Keegan Thompson – he had been experiencing a drop in velocity but recently jumped a couple mph and also did a multi-inning stint after mostly single inning appearances, so this seems a good bet
  • One more guy – now that Adrian Sampson has been optioned, this spot falls to Michael Rucker (UPDATE: yup) or Rowan Wick, probably Wick for the fact that he holds the higher salary unless they just elect to cut him and eat the money (or only a portion of it per the non-guaranteed contract rules for arbitration guys); the other one is Mark Leiter Jr., but he would need someone else to get bumped from the 40-man roster first, and there’s a non-zero chance that is Wick…and if they also carry Kay, then they’d need two spots and at that point I’m not sure who they DFA, but I have some ideas (see below).

Position Players

The catchers are pretty simple:

  • Tucker Barnhart
  • Yan Gomes

I’m leaning towards this now for the remaining non-catcher guys, especially to appease BVS who has a vendetta against a guy…

  • Nico Hoerner (2B, SS)
  • Dansby Swanson (SS)
  • Trey Mancini (1B, RF, DH)
  • Cody Bellinger (CF)
  • Ian Happ (LF)
  • Eric Hosmer (1B) – at least until they feel they have to get rid of him
  • Patrick Wisdom (3B, 1B, LF, RF, maybe CF in an emergency, DH of course) – especially because he’s hit the snot out of the ball despite the swing-and-miss, and he plays decent defense
  • Edwin Rios (3B, 1B, DH) – also hits the snot out of the ball despite swing-and-miss, happens to be left-handed
  • Nick Madrigal (3B, 2B, DH) – has appeared competent at 3B, should probably hit better to justify this spot but a contact bat can play if he stops hitting it right at people
  • Christopher Morel (2B, SS, OF, basically wherever David Ross tells him to stand) – he has swing and miss in his game too, but he’s so versatile that he seems like the ideal utility guy, and he would be the easiest one to ship to Iowa for consistent playing time when Seiya Suzuki returns after his rehab assignment or whatever in Arizona or elsewhere (UPDATE: replace with Luis Torrens – see comment below for official announcement – and we’ll sort out the other 40-man moves later when we know)
  • Miles Mastrobuoni (basically a utility guy) – he’s done everything he can to be noticed and also be markedly better in the opportunities he’s had than Zach McKinstry, who at this point seems like a good bet to be outrighted or DFA to make room for another reliever as stated above (UPDATE: or traded, see comments later)

The rapid recovery time by Seiya makes it less likely for nonroster guys like Mike Tauchman to eat up a roster spot for a short period of time, especially if that roster spot is probably going to be prioritized for a reliever (UPDATE: he’s out). And if anyone of the position player group is getting bounced, it’s probably McKinstry because he has no options remaining and he unfortunately has stunk up the joint all spring, so let’s see if they attempt to outright him (I didn’t see him in the notes on AZ Phil’s page, so I don’t think he can refuse an outright, and I also doubt anyone claims him off waivers at this point).

Again, this will likely be finalized by the time the jabronis record the next Dreamcast, barring any technical difficulties or wrath of God, but whenever that information is known, I’ll post in the comments and update this main post whenever I have time.

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Comments

  2. Author
    Rice Cube

    So MLB.com did a thing and this is their take on the Cubs Opening Day lineup –> https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/2023-opening-day-projected-lineups

    Cubs:

    Nico Hoerner, 2B
    Dansby Swanson, SS
    Ian Happ, LF
    Cody Bellinger, CF
    Trey Mancini RF
    Edwin Ríos DH
    Patrick Wisdom, 3B
    Eric Hosmer, 1B
    Tucker Barnhart, C
    SP: Marcus Stroman, RHP
    CL: Michael Fulmer, RHP

    This version of the revamped Cubs’ nine features six free agents reeled in over a busy winter, while the bullpen will be anchored by veteran free-agent additions Fulmer and Brad Boxberger without the “closer” label officially applied to either. — Jordan Bastian

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  5. Author
    Rice Cube

    Sahadev says Torrens might be likely as a bench guy, and Assad has officially made the team in the bullpen but that’s about it for now –> https://theathletic.com/4350018/2023/03/27/cubs-roster-opening-day/

    Elsewhere in the Cubs transaction news, Tauchman was assigned to minor league camp so he’s out.

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  6. andcounting

    This year is going to be pretty interesting. It’s almost annoying that what they’ve done might work. It’s almost like they have determined that consistent pitching and solid defense could be the underrated market inefficiency or whatever.

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  7. Author
    Rice Cube

    Digging this up for fun

    andcounting: The reason I asked about the narrative with Drury is that the Cubs are a half dozen narratives away from a great season. Did Contreras really hurt the pitching staff? Could Hendricks rebound with a proficient receiver behind the plate? Can Bellinger find his swing? Will Mervis be a legit MLB power hitter? Will the defense up the middle be a difference maker? Will the Cubs proliferation of nonpower pitchers exploit the pitch clock? Are the Cubs a year ahead of the curve on strategic base stealing? Did Dansby Swanson’s mental health struggles cause him to be underrated and could his progress lead to better-than-expected improvements at the plate? Will Morel have a sophomore slump or surge? Is there a prospect we aren’t considering who will click in ‘23? Is Wesneski as good as he looked last year? Will Suzuki be as effective as it seems like his skill set suggests he should be?

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  8. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    Stealing a run here or there on offense through running like madmen whenever they’re lucky enough to get on + taking away extra runs due to pitching and defense = lots of stolen wins, we hope

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  9. berselius

    I’m still convinced that Julian Merryweather is some sort of elaborate performance art piece orchestrated by the Cubs FO and various stat sites to see if they could insert the baseball equivalent of a Madden-generated name into the baseball ecosphere without anyone noticing.

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  10. berselius

    andcounting:
    This year is going to be pretty interesting. It’s almost annoying that what they’ve done might work. It’s almost like they have determined that consistent pitching and solid defense could be the underrated market inefficiency or whatever.

    Mediocre and Interesting would be a step up from some Cubs baseball we’ve recently enjoyed (dying laughing).

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  17. Author
    Rice Cube

    Sounds like Morel is going to Iowa so that helps us figure stuff out some, I’d update the post but waiting to take kid to get his driver’s license if he doesn’t destroy the car during the exam

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  30. Author
    Rice Cube

    So Nico got $2.5ish million for this year’s arb, that contract extension buys out the final two arb years and one free agent year, suggesting they figure he’s probably not much better with the bat going forward but rewarding the elite defense, guess they had to have been on the same page because he didn’t hold out for more, hmm…

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/cubs-nico-hoerner-in-advanced-discussion-talks.html

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  31. Author
    Rice Cube

    Seems like such a sweet dude, so glad he played for the hometown club

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  32. Author
    Rice Cube

    Based on the news trickling out over the past 48 hours or so…

    Rotation:
    – Stroman
    – Taillon
    – Steele
    – Smyly
    – Wesneski

    Bullpen:
    – Alzolay
    – Thompson
    – Assad
    – Boxberger
    – Fulmer
    – Merryweather
    – Rucker
    – Mark Leiter Jr?

    Position guys:
    – Barnhart
    – Gomes
    – Nico
    – Swanson
    – Hosmer
    – Mancini
    – Happ
    – Bellinger
    – Mastrobuoni
    – Wisdom
    – Rios
    – Torrens
    – Madrigal

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  33. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    There’s always a trade off for getting more money now as opposed to deferring the FA payoff. Extending just one year into free agency pays off for the Cubs if Nico plateaus but it pays off for Nico if he has a launch year late in the contract. I don’t think it necessarily signals they agree on his ceiling, it’s still a decent size payday considering his production so far.

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  34. Author
    Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    I think it’s a good balance of making sure he’s set for life while the team locks in a friendlier term for the time being whether he’s the Nico we see now or takes a step forward, kind of win-win, just thought it would be closer to $40 or $50 million and possibly an extra year but that’s life changing money for sure

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  35. Author
    Rice Cube

    As a fan of MLB who has the responsibility of feeding and sheltering a family, not being able to watch MLB games because they make you sign up for all kinds of weird subscriptions is very off-putting

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  36. Author
    Rice Cube

    Today’s final Spring Training lineup, looks like Madrigal, Barnhart, and Smyly drew the short straw and have to take the late flight to Chicago (assuming they don’t option Madrigal)

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  38. berselius

    Rice Cube:
    As a fan of MLB who has the responsibility of feeding and sheltering a family, not being able to watch MLB games because they make you sign up for all kinds of weird subscriptions is very off-putting

    I guess this is a fruit-out?

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  44. Author
    Rice Cube

    Gonna go to their site and check this for myself, thought the roster was full but I guess I forgot to account for the outrights and stuff

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