OV 2012 Predictions: An Attempt at Unrediscreditation

In Commentary And Analysis by aisle42489 Comments

What kind of a discredited blog would we be if we didn't occasionally put our collective butts on the line by making wild and highly improbable predictions about a 162 game season? We'll see which one of us is most scarily accurate and which of us is most hilariously wrong.  The winner gets their OV salary doubled.  The loser, of course, will have to go without dinner until next season.


MLB Predictions

Who will be the NL Division Champions?

  Prediction
And Counting Phillies, Cardinals, Giants
Aisle 424 Marlins, Brewers, Diamondbacks
MB21 Braves, Reds, Giants
Berselius Phillies, Reds, Giants

Who wIll be the AL Division Champions?

  Prediction
And Counting Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers
Aisle 424 Yankees, Tigers, Angels
MB21 Yankees, Tigers, Rangers
Berselius Rays, Tigers, Angels

Who will be the NL Wildcards?

  Prediction
And Counting Brewers & Marlins
Aisle 424 Reds & Phillies
MB21 Phillies & Cardinals
Berselius Marlins & Braves

Who will be the AL Wildcards?

  Prediction
And Counting Yankees & Indians
Aisle 424 Rays & Rangers
MB21 Red Sox & Angels
Berselius Yankees & Rangers

Who will play in the World Series, and who wins?

  Prediction
And Counting Marlins defeat Yankees
Aisle 424 Phillies defeat Angels
MB21 Yankees defeat Reds
Berselius Angels defeat Phillies

Who will win the NL MVP?

  Prediction
And Counting Jose Reyes
Aisle 424 Joey Votto
MB21 Joey Votto
Berselius Matt Kemp

Who will win the AL MVP?

  Prediction
And Counting Prince Fielder
Aisle 424 Evan Longoria
MB21 Jose Bautista
Berselius Albert Pujols

Who will win the NL Cy Young Award?

  Prediction
And Counting Chris Carpenter
Aisle 424 Tim Lincecum
MB21 Jeff Samardzija
Berselius Zack Greinke

Who will win the AL Cy Young Award?

  Prediction
And Counting Felix Hernandez
Aisle 424 Felix Hernandez
MB21 Justin Verlander
Berselius Justin Verlander

Who will win the NL Rookie of the Year?

  Prediction
And Counting Yonder Alonso
Aisle 424 Devin Mesoraco
MB21 Brett Jackson
Berselius Edinson Volquez (seriously, Bryce Harper)

Who will win the AL Rookie of the Year?

  Prediction
And Counting Yoenis Cespedes
Aisle 424 Matt Moore
MB21 Mike Trout
Berselius Yu Darvish

Cubs Predictions

How many games will the Cubs win?

  Prediction
And Counting 75
Aisle 424 62
MB21 68
Berselius 74

Which Cub position player will end the year with the highest WAR?

  Prediction
And Counting Starlin Castro
Aisle 424 Geovany Soto
MB21 Starlin Castro
Berselius Geovany Soto

Which Cub pitcher will end the year with the highest WAR?

  Prediction
And Counting Ryan Dempster
Aisle 424 Matt Garza
MB21 Jeff Samardzija
Berselius Matt Garza

Will Ryan Dempster end the season as a Cub?

  Prediction
And Counting Yes
Aisle 424 No
MB21 Yes
Berselius Yes

Will Geovany Soto end the season as a Cub?

  Prediction
And Counting Yes
Aisle 424 Yes
MB21 Yes
Berselius Yes

Will Marlon Byrd end the season as a Cub?

  Prediction
And Counting No
Aisle 424 No
MB21 No
Berselius No

Will Alfonso Soriano end the season as a Cub?

  Prediction
And Counting No
Aisle 424 Yes
MB21 Yes
Berselius No

How many starts will Jeff Samardzija get before going back to the bullpen?

  Prediction
And Counting 25
Aisle 424 6
MB21 36
Berselius 6

When will Joe Mather be released?

  Prediction
And Counting 2019
Aisle 424 June 27
MB21 May 20
Berselius June 1

When will Brett Jackson get called up?

  Prediction
And Counting Cinco de Mayo
Aisle 424 May 3
MB21 May 20
Berselius June 1

When will Anthony Rizzo get called up?

  Prediction
And Counting September 1
Aisle 424 June 27
MB21 June 10
Berselius September 1

What will be the Cubs' total attendance?

  Prediction
And Counting 3,000,300
Aisle 424 2,750,001
MB21 2,875,000
Berselius 2,500,000

 

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Comments

  1. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    I hate that argument. There’s no downside in moving Soriano to CF. According to the metrics and even some observers he was better in the field last year. The funny thing is that one year of fielding is more predictive than 42 freaking innings. There’s no downside in the Cubs doing almost anything. Or moving the better relief pitcher, Marmol, to the rotation.

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  2. Author
    Aisle424

    Berselius wrote:

    Quasi-papal projector posted his ZiPS NL standings. Anyone with insider?

    The Central looks much like it did in 2012, minus a couple of superstar first basemen. The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals both made some moves to soften some of the blow of losing Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds — one of the more disappointing teams in 2011 — cashed in some of their prospects for Mat Latos. The divisional race is tight enough that it may come down to which team’s the healthiest.

    The Chicago Cubs have figured out the best way to avoid failing to meet expectations is to enter the season without any. I mean that in the best possible way. Theo Epstein was the biggest non-player acquisition in baseball for some time and has a clean slate to build the Cubs into serious contenders. But not in 2012. The Pittsburgh Pirates made some noise for a month or so last season, but while the team has a direction for the first time in decades, they’re not yet at their destination.

    The Houston Astros will play 162 games of baseball this year. They’ll win some of them.

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  3. Rice in limbo

    You guys are really high on the Marlins. To be honest I hope they make it, I kind of want to see Z get a ring.

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  4. dylanj

    so the Red Sox want to re-open the Theo talks because Carpenter got hurt? Can we politely tell those guys to fuck off once and for all?

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  5. josh

    @ jtsunami:
    I don’t know if that’s such a good move. Is that going to mean Bob Brenly quits? If not, then he stays and bitches about it for the next three years. Not worth it.

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  6. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ dylanj:
    Fuck politely. Tell Lucchino to return to the sodding anus that shat his worthless carcass onto the planet.

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  7. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    I don’t blame the Red Sox. I wonder if the Cubs knew about his injury beforehand. The guy only threw a few times in spring training. Either he did something throwing those pitches, tore the shit out of his elbow eating a steak or was already injured. It’s entirely possible the injury just happened. It’s not at all likely it happened eating food unless he was at TGIF.

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  8. Berselius

    @ mb21:

    He could have already been injured and he/the Cubs had not known about it anyway, and he’s a dude with an injury history anyway (though this might not be related). When Carpenter went over to the Sox I was surprised at how little seemed to be written about his injury history.

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  9. Rice Cube

    I’m fairly sure that both teams performed physical exams on Carpenter before the trade was okay’d. Sometimes shit happens. Or else both teams have shitty doctors.

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  10. josh

    @ josh:
    Or just years of use, not even abuse, really. He might have been feeling a twinge and they told him the ligaments are healthy, so he figured it was one of those things.

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  11. WaLi

    @ Rice Cube:
    Yeah both teams definitely performed a physical exam. I can’t blame the Sox for being pissed, but there’s nothing that can be done. What would be in it for Carpenter to lie about it anyways?

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  12. Author
    Aisle424

    WaLi wrote:

    What would be in it for Carpenter to lie about it anyways?

    Getting to go from a shitty organization to a perennial contender

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  13. WaLi

    @ Aisle424:
    (dying laughing) true.
    Carpenter: Fuck, I got hurt pitching today.
    Theo: Hmm. Well obviously you are going to need surgery. I got a proposition. hold off saying you got hurt so I can trade you.
    Carpenter: Trade? I don’t want to be traded! Who are you trading me for?
    Theo: For someone worth a lot more than you. None other than myself. Don’t you want to say the Cubs traded you for Theo fucking Epstein?
    Carpenter: Wait, does this mean I can leave the Cubs and play for an actual good team?
    Theo: Uh… Yeah.
    Carpenter: Deal.

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  14. mb21

    @ josh:
    It will be interesting to see what MLB does about this. If it is bone spurs then the Sox and Cubs surely had to know. Both of them. If that’s true, the Sox should be shit out of luck.

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  15. josh

    @ mb21:
    Maybe they don’t do full imaging scans for these physicals? If he was not reporting discomfort, then it might have been difficult to tell without a scan. I assumed that MRIs were standard, especially for a pitcher, but maybe not.

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  16. GW

    We don’t have a lot of on-base percentage guys…We’ll evaluate a little bit more on productivity. Hopefully the on-base percentage can happen without maneuvering the lineup because of it, because we don’t have any proven guys besides DeJesus that’s had any (history of a high OBP). Other than that, we really don’t have those guys right now.

    Sveum on the opening day lineup. Not really sure what he’s talking about wrt maneuvering the lineup.

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  17. jtsunami

    Anyone else hear about this new AMC drama in the works about football? I’ve always been interested in a sports drama but they all seem to suck. If anyone can pull it off, it’s AMC.

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  18. mb21

    search phrase of the day: open hot dog bun

    I’d really like to know what this person was searching for. Open the bag? Couldn’t be. too simple? Open the bun? No way. right?

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  19. Rice Cube

    @ GW:
    I think he means that Barney will hopefully sustain a high BABIP so he won’t have to shuffle the lineup around too much because the guy can’t take a walk.

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  20. Mish

    Rice Cube wrote:

    There should be an acceptable acronym for a stat that tracks when someone does something stupid on the basepaths even if it doesn’t result in an out.

    Should Of Run, Idled Apathetically, No Out (though).

    A SORIANO.

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  21. Berselius

    mb21 wrote:

    search phrase of the day: open hot dog bun

    I’d really like to know what this person was searching for. Open the bag? Couldn’t be. too simple? Open the bun? No way. right?

    I’ve seen it multiple times in the past week or so. I think it’s coming from an image search. Hopefully not someone with a very specific fetish.

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