Weekend Roster Moves of note
- Darnell McDonald —-> AAA
- Chang-Yong Lim —-> Korea
- Tsuyoshi Wada —–> released
- Tsuyoshi Wada —–> re-signed to a minor league deal
- Neil Ramirez —–> AAA
- Javier Baez —–> AAA
- Jonathan Sanchez —-> AAA
- Casper Wells —-> AAA
- Blake Parker —–> AAA
No real surprises here, except maybe Blake Parker, who was pretty decent last year in 46 innings and change for the big league club.
Starlin Castro working his way back
Castro has played in a minor league game or two and should be back for opening day. Hopefully they'll take it easy on his hamstring in the cold weather next week, though Aisley said on twitter this morning that the extended forecast for the Cubs home opener is 62 degrees, for what little it's worth.
BPro scouting notes on various prospects
Jason Parks and his BP friends saw a bunch of Cubs players yesterday ($). Parks had great things to say about Almora's fielding, especially in Arizona's troublesome sun. Not much new on Javier Baez – big league pitchers with changeups are going to own him until he adjusts. Parks also had lots of things to say about Junior Lake, including that he still has the ceiling of a 30-30 guy but right now he's pretty much a 'fastball in the middle of the plate' guy. The tools are there. Lots of nice things to say about Christian Villanueva too, especially about his bat's future.
BPro NL Central preview
Ken Funck and OV Executive Overseer-in-Chief Harry Pavlidis preview the Cubs competition ($), answering five questions about each team. My favorite thing from this piece was suddenly realizing that Ryan Braun will be playing in RF, i.e. the sun field at Wrigley. Bonifacio is a switch hitter, and if he makes the team I wouldn't be surprised to see an inside the parker at some point. Billy Hamilton might hit 5 or 6 against them (dying laughing). They're also kidding themselves to even consider that Ryan Braun could win another MVP award from the BBWAA. They also seem pretty conviced that Shark (obviously) and Travis Wood (surprisingly) will be dealt. I don't really see it with Wood, *someone* has to pitch those innings for the Cubs for the next few years.
Re: Last weekend
It's a strange feeling to see a Wisconsin basketball team down double digits and not be too worried. Not to mention these newfangled things like dunking and alley-oops, and scoring more than 50 points in a game. What team is this?
Of course, they'll go 2-19 on 3-pointers and lose by 25 to Baylor on Thursday because that's how this tournament works.
TEX has angered the gods. Profar, Soto and the entire starting rotation are injured. Tanner Scheppers (yes, the reliever) will start Opening Day.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I still like Tsuyoshi Wada and would be very happy if he stayed in the org as a depth starter.
Rotations!
MLB: Shark/Wood/Jackson/Hammel/Villanueva
AAA: Hendricks/Wada/Rusin/Ramirez/Jokisch (Negrin) (Loux)
AA: Edwards/Johnson/Pineyro/Black/Wells (Loosen)
A+: Maples/Scott/Skulina/Paniagua/Zastryzny (Peralta)
A: Blackburn/Underwood/Pugliese/Torrez/Hoffner
A-: Leal/Masek/Frazier/Wang/Tseng
Really, that’s not a bad looking group of pitchers (except for the major leagues). That AA rotation is really great, the A+ rotation is at least intriguing, and AAA/A/A- are all solid.
Typing it out, it looks like there isn’t really room for Wada at AAA. I’d rather give an extended look to Barret Loux, who is almost a non-prospect but not assuredly. Negrin isn’t really an obstacle and might be ticketed the bullpen (which doesn’t make sense, given that Negrin is durable and has basically a dozen pitches).
MylesQuote Reply
Like You Care wrote:
And to think I picked them to make the ALCS
MylesQuote Reply
if both shark and wood get dealt, it will be absolutely hilarious to see this piece of shit team play. i could see a team ERA of >5.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Not quite that bad, but yeah. I’m wondering if Wood isn’t a great trade candidate; a cursory glance at his line last year shows that his good season was almost primarily a result of a flukily low HR rate.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
His HR rate was in line with his previous seasons. It looks like 2012 was the outlier.
Maybe he’s just one of those pitchers who gets hitters off balance so they can’t get much power behind it?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
A slightly more nuanced approach reveals a slider that broke harder last season, and he got the differential between fastball/sliderl up 1mph, but all of his pitches were slightly slower in 2013. He also had an appreciable change in the vertical drop of his offspeed pitches, and he threw EVERYTHING from a higher arm angle last season. Arm angle is one of probably very few changes that seem more-or-less sustainable.
He also worked the lower portion of the plate in general, especially the right-handed side of the plate. Funnily enough, it DIDN’T translate to a higher GB rate: it basically stayed the same. I was also wrong considering the HR-rate, it was atypically HIGH in 2012 and it went back down to his normal level. Two crazy things; his BABIP was .248 last season, but his career rate is .264. Also, his strand rate went sky-high; 77.4% from a league average of 73.0% (and his rate is usually 71%). That rate would be 18th best in the league last year; almost no one in the Top 20 has a profile that even resembles Wood’s. Wood is a flyball pitcher (33.2% rate), and the average rate of the other 19 is around 45%. It doesn’t seem that Wood can sustain such a high strand rate, and I’d be surprised if he did.
MylesQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
Yeah, that was my bad. Wood does seems to have better than average HR rates especially considering his batted-ball profile.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles seems rather optimistic about this team. Not 70 win optimism, but something more. I doubt they win 65.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
I think there’s a somewhat decent chance Travis Wood ends the season with an ERA over 5. I doubt he does, but I think the odds of that are better than him doing anything close to what he did last year.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Like You Care wrote:
Like You CareQuote Reply
dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:
I think there’s a 10% chance they win 78 games.
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
Steamer has him at 4.31. That seems about right to me.
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Everytime I think of this Cubs team I think of the construction worker from Major League saying “they don’t look too fuckin good”.
MuckerQuote Reply
Mock draft day. I’m using the sim site again because it’s too much work to freestyle weekly. I’ll do one final mock the week before the draft.
CHI
14 DT AARON DONALD PITTSBURGH
51 DE DEMARCUS LAWRENCE BOISE STATE – Scheme-diverse edge player jumps out on film. “Draft media” doesn’t like him as much as I do, but he fits what CHI is doing on defense.
82 ILB YAWIN SMALLWOOD UCONN – Athletic ILB that can play the run and cover TEs.
117 S DION BAILEY USC – Underrated S prospect. If you want a plug-and-play safety, you probably have to take him in the top 40 picks.
156 CB WALT AIKENS LIBERTY – Small-school press CB has the ability to start from Day 1.
Like You CareQuote Reply
GB
21 DT RA’SHEDE HAGEMAN MINNESOTA – BEAST instantly improves the defense.
53 S JIMMIE WARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS – Ideal Cover-1 S.
85 WR JARVIS LANDRY LSU – If GB is committed to a more physical offense, this Anquan Boldin clone is a good fit.
98 C MARCUS MARTIN USC – Ah, the sim already added comp picks. Please replace EDS.
121 CB PHILLIP GAINES RICE – GB has a type for CBs. Gaines is it.
161 TE XAVIER GRIMBLE USC – Need at least one TE to do what they want on offense.
176 QB TAJH BOYD CLEMSON – They really need to address their QB situation. Boyd fits what they like.
Like You CareQuote Reply
SF’s up next. Let me know if you want another team.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ GW:
Same here. Wood’s nickname should be “perfectly adequate”
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
If the Bears have opportunity to draft Ward in 2nd and don’t, I’m going to be extremely pissed.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
EDS is already gone, thank goodness.
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah, that’s about right where I think he’ll end the season, but 5 isn’t a stretch. Neither is 3.9, but I doubt it.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Travis “Sure. Why Not.” Wood
MylesQuote Reply
SF
30 DT RA’SHEDE HAGEMAN MINNESOTA – BEAST. Doubt he lasts this long, but he would be an all-pro in SF.
56 WR DONTE MONCRIEF MISSISSIPPI – My favorite WR in this draft, all things considered.
61 S TERRENCE BROOKS FLORIDA STATE – I think he’ll be the starting FS next season if he’s available here.
77 WR ALLEN ROBINSON PENN STATE – Kind of a luxury, but good value here. Quintessential SF WR.
94 Traded for a 2015 2nd rounder. SF has six of the top 100 picks and about five roster spots. They’ll move up or trade picks for 2015 picks.
100 CB TERRANCE MITCHELL OREGON – Dime CB next season and then moves outside the following year.
129 QB LOGAN THOMAS VIRGINIA TECH – This is happening…
170 C GABE IKARD OKLAHOMA – Athletic C stood out in combine drills. Interior OL depth.
Barring some crazy shit, I don’t think I could be happier with the first four rounds.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
He was gone in the sim I ran. Decent chance he’s gone IRL too.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
And the GB fans said:
[img]http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/yes_napoleon_dynamite.gif[/img]
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
Crush that news into powder, divided it into some lines and GB fans are like:
[img]http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/originals/e8/c2/47/e8c2476bcef3abae477133d5ae0b8f87.jpg[/img]
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Myles:
For 2010-2013, among players with at least 450 innings pitched, exactly two players have a HR/FB% under 7, and one of them is Clayton Kershaw. So I’m not writing off Travis Wood’s 2012. For his career, he’s at 8.3%. I’d probably project him at about 9% going forward.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
Are you telling me Clayton Kershaw and Travis Wood don’t have similar skillsets? Aren’t they both lefties?
MylesQuote Reply
GW wrote:
I also tried to guess who the other person was before I looked it up. My guess was Doug Fister, but he was 5th. I still feel like that’s a pretty great guess. Had no idea just how good Bills was at avoiding the longball.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I would have guessed Matt Cain; Fister’s a good one, too. There’s definitely a ballpark effect there. Lots of Miami, San Francisco, Oakland, both LA’s… But, yeah. Did not expect to see Billingsley up there. He was really good pre-injury, but I never thought of him as a homerun- suppressor.
GWQuote Reply
Alexander Guerrero – > minors
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
And they’re both white
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
They’re both good hitters, too! Really, they’re practically the same person.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Clayton’s only been a good hitter the last 3 years though. His first 3 years were terrible.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Padres are such a forgettable franchise. Have they had a good position player other than Headley in the past 10 years? I just remembered Adrian Gonzalez played there. Anyone else? I can hardly name any starting pitcher they’ve had since Peavy, other than Cashner. Yet, this no-name franchise has regularly been way better than the Cubs.
jQuote Reply
@ j:
(dying laughing)
I wasn’t sure where you were going with that, then the punchline came.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
ESPN wrote:
At least he’s improving.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Jared Allen —> Bears
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
I thought he signed with the Seahawks? Or did he sign with both teams, and there’s some type of time share thing going on?
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Really looking forward to MO rooting for him (dying laughing)
Berselius22Quote Reply
@ Edwin:
SEA has so many pass rushers that they’re starting to sublet them.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Speaking of SEA, I really think CHI is going to roll out a 4-3 Under look on defense this season based on their personnel.
[img]http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2606939/4-3_Under.jpg[/img]
Leo – Allen
3T – Ratliff
NT – Paea
5T – Houston
SAM – McLellin
Like You CareQuote Reply
And I’d say CHI is probably targeting Donald, Clinton-Dix, Jernigan and Mosley in the first round. Maybe Dennard and Gilbert if they place a premium on CBs and Louis Nix if they do on NTs.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
No more Ealy?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
What would a Nickel or dime package look like?
EdwinQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I suppose it’s possible, but them signing Allen/Houston/Young and not Melton tells me they’re not confident in this year’s DE class.
Also, Donald is nearly a luxury at this point. Clinton-Dix might be their pick with the dearth of safeties.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
They’d pull the NT and move the SAM down to LDE in a nickel and then pull the weaker coverage ILB in a dime.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I was always a fan of Brian Giles.
LukasQuote Reply
@ j:
Adrian Gonzalez
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
@ Lukas:
That was a reply to j.
I guess I don’t remember if he was on the Padres within the last 10 years though!
LukasQuote Reply
Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko FTW!
JonKneeVQuote Reply
The Peavy/Chris Young combo was devastating for at least one year.
GWQuote Reply
Coming soon to a Cub team near you, Randy Wolf and Joe Blanton as org depth? (Wolf refused a major league assignment with the Mariners because he wouldn’t sign a 45-day out clause.) They’ll be as good as Scott Baker and James McRonald.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/quick-hits-royals-wolf-astros-phillies.html
Just plain BVSQuote Reply
Donnie Murphy ——> Rangers
GWQuote Reply
George Kottaras —–> Released
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
That sure does clear up the IF situation.
1B Rizzo
2B Barney
3B Olt
SS Castro
Bench Bonafacio
Bench Valbuena
Can’t think of really any other configuration that makes sense besides Valbuena and bonafacio starting instead of Barney
AndrewQuote Reply
GW wrote:
I thought he signed with the Seahawks?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ GW:
Cubs are just trying to get out from under all those big market contracts handed out in previous offseasons.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Cubs are moving to a 6-4 cover 1, methinks.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
*shakes head* another Young Player they let get away. Epstink is terrible.
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
I’m surprised that they released Kottaras, though I guess backup catcher isn’t really a big impact position.
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect wrote:
I’m definitely surprised.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
He must suck at catching
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
I was under the impression that he was a horrific defensive catcher physically, but that he called a decent game. I can live with that if it’s attached to a big stick, and maybe the Cubs had reason to believe that wasn’t going to happen.
MylesQuote Reply
The Murphy trade really, really smooths out the roster.
LF Sweeney
CF Lake
RF Schierholtz
4O Ruggiano
5O Kalish
1B Rizzo
2B Valbuena
SS Castro
3B Olt
UTIL Bonifacio
UTIL Barney
C Castillo
C Baker
#1 Shark
#2 Wood
#3 Jackson
#4 Hammel
#5 Villanueva
CL Veras
SU Strop
RP Russell
RP Wright
RP Rondon
RP Cabrera
RP Grimm
MylesQuote Reply
DT Metrics: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46653/349/peshek-dt-metrics-10
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ GW:
Looks more like a Cover-3 with a 1-4 front.
Like You CareQuote Reply
What’s the over/under for Mike Olt PA’s this year?
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
4-3.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Like You Care wrote:
Sweet article, and the QB one is great too.
MylesQuote Reply
GW wrote:
425.
MylesQuote Reply
What happened to Arrieta?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Myles:
The CB ones are what put me on the Kyle Fuller bandwagon.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’d put it at 200 and I’d take the under. What do you think?
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ Myles:
If he bats that many times, I could see 200 strikeouts. (dying laughing)
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
He’s going to miss the first couple starts with arm issues. When he’s healthy, he’ll bump Villanueva, who will in turn bump Grimm to the minors.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I thought we just read that Barney was going to be the starting 2nd baseman and on this roster I’m not sure he shouldn’t be.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
Based on the Cubs’ need to get a look at him, I would tend to side with Myles (~400). But I could easily see him hacking his way into half that many, a la Brett Jackson. That’s why I’m curious as to what others think.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I think he’ll be okay, though the probability of a BJax outcome is certainly nontrivial.
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10677763/northwestern-wildcats-football-players-win-bid-unionize
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIRjHfdcBgw
alfQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
Hope you have a lot of popcorn. Gonna take forever to get this settled.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
Good for them. Funny that Northwestern was the target, although I understand they have to go after private schools because NLRB doesn’t have jurisdiction over govt workers. I don’t know if they are really employees or not, but the NCAA is total BS.
Just plain BVSQuote Reply
Berselius, looks like your vacation plans just got a little more complicated:
Just plain BVSQuote Reply
Just plain BVS wrote:
I don’t know if they are or not, but the changes some hope for are never going to happen and they probably shouldn’t. I think all people on athletic scholarship will be given a stipend larger than the $2000 per year that has been proposed, but the idea that these guys make considerably more just isn’t happening.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Apparently Manziel wore pads and a helmet for his pro day. That’s pretty cool.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Ryno, we squeaked one out last weekend. 21-20. It was 0-0 at the half and they scored first in the second half and then we matched them. They scored again and we matched them again. They scored with about 5 mins left and we blocked the extra point. We got to their 30 yard line and 1st and 10 turned into 4th and 21 after two straight sacks. We converted the 4th down and then three plays later scored with 45 seconds left. They get a bullshit PI penalty and get the ball at our 27. They take a couple of plays to try and get closer but we hold them. They go for the 44 yard FG with 2 seconds left but he’s short and left. Great game and we were lucky to get out of there with a W. They outplayed us but we made the plays when we needed to.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Sounds like a fun game. Are you on the FG block team?
Like You CareQuote Reply
Kinda sick of the same old mock drafts. Over the next few days, I’m going to do something new: I’ll go over my favorite prospects I haven’t mentioned much yet. Because of the audience, I’ll stick to guys that fit CHI and GB.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
We’re pretty familiar with 1st round guys, fill us in on some sleepers or some guys that will be available later because of position?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Dakota Dozier, OL, Furman/Joel Bitonio, OL, Nevada: I’m combining these guys because they’re similar enough, imo. Athletic OTs that are likely interior OL in the NFL. Looked good pulling at the combine. Look like 3rd rounders. Fit for GB and CHI, imo.
Will Clarke, DE, WV: Long, lean and athletic, just the way GB likes their 5Ts. Would be a good pick in the late 3rd if GB misses out on the earlier DL.
Charles Sims, RB, WV: Matt Forte clone. Perfect for CHI’s offense. 3rd-4th rounder.
Lache Seastrunk, RB, Oregon: GB needs a complement to Lacy, and I think Seastrunk is it in the 3rd-4th. Better runner between the tackles than many think.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
That’s what I’m going for. I’ll stick to people I haven’t mentioned before that I think are underrated by draft media.
Like You CareQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/better-know-a-cub-mike-olt.html
1800 words on Mike Olt.
MylesQuote Reply
Better yet, I’ll go by position. Only players I haven’t discussed before that are fits for GB and CHI.
Like You CareQuote Reply
NSUed
Like You CareQuote Reply