OV Hall of Fame Voting Results – Class of 2014

In Commentary And Analysis by aisle424111 Comments

The votes have been cast and if OV was in charge of the Hall of Fame, there would be four (FOUR!) new inductees this summer. Congratulations, Greg Maddux (98.8% of the vote), Frank Thomas (79.8%), Tom Glavine (78.6%), and Mike Piazza (75.0%)!

Voting Results

HOF votes2

Some quick notes:

  • Last year, we elected Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, and Barry Bonds, but only Piazza managed to retain enough of his votes with the additions of Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent etc.
  • Only Craig Biggio's percentage of votes received went up between this year and last year, and his only went up one tenth of a percent so that doesn't even really count.
  • Larry Walker dropped 26.8 percentage points from last year and Curt Schilling dropped 26.5 points as the biggest "losers" over the last year. Sosa and Palmeiro also dropped more than 20 percentage points each.
  • Of 1st time candidates, only Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent would appear on next year's ballot. Luis Gonzalez (1 vote), Eric Gagne, Moises Alou and the rest (0 votes) failed to receive the required 5% to stay on the ballot.

  • We had to discard a number of empty ballots because they were mostly duplicates and/or incomplete. There were 5 empty ballots that I counted that could have plausibly been real, and if so, Glavine and Piazza would have failed to reach 75%.
  • We also discarded a few ballots that had as many as 16 yes votes because the maximum was 10.
  • Greg Maddux was missing from only one valid ballot.
  • The average ballot had 8.7 votes submitted, up slightly from last year's 8.5 per ballot. The BBWAA averaged 6.6 on their ballot last year and that was a record high in the 21st century.
  • 50 of our 84 ballots had the maximum 10 votes.

Based on these results and taking a look at how the BBWAA voted last year, I think Maddux will get in for real.  He won't get the 98.8% he got here because there actually will be a couple of blank ballots from the BBWAA like there always is and because I think some strategic voting may occur where some writers will figure Maddux gets in easily, so they'll use a vote that would normally have gone to Maddux to vote for somebody they fear may fall off the ballot, like Sosa or Palmeiro.

After Maddux, I don't know if Glavine and Thomas get in just because of the vote shortage, nd I would bet a significant amount of money that Piazza doesn't. Keep in mind that the BBWAA voted for almost 2 fewer candidates per ballot last year, and in our model, that's over 160 votes that would disappear.  Where do they come from? If Thomas loses 5 votes and Glavine 4 votes in that new model, they don't get in. Piazza can not lose a single vote and still get in. Also, the BBWAA votes for guys like Lee Smith. Last year we gave Smith 25% and the BBWAA gave him 47.8%.  He went down to 14.3% this year in our vote, but I bet he still gets around 20% from the BBWAA.

We hate Jack Morris. He got 8.3% this year after 13.8% last year. The BBWAA had him at 67.7% and this is his 15th and last year to appear on the ballot, so he's going to get a few sympathy votes.  I don't think he gets in, but I also think Morris sucks up a lot of votes away from Thomas, Glavine, Piazza, and Biggio.

Some candidates to fall off the BBWAA ballot are Sosa (12.5% last year from BBWAA – Went from 53.8% to 32.1% ON A CUBS BLOG), McGwire (16.9% BBWAA, 36.3% OV2013, 17.9% OV2014), and Mattingly (13.2% BBWAA, 10% OV2013, 6% OV2014).

I also wonder how it would have come out if we had removed Piazza, Bonds, and Raines from our ballot since they would have been elected last year by us. That would have freed up 168 more votes to spread around.  Maybe Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou get a little more love.  Maybe Biggio gets in this time.

Thanks to everyone who participated and congratulations again to Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, and Piazza. Your OV Certificates of Classiness are in the mail.

Share this Post

Comments

  1. Like You Care

    @ Berselius22:

    Of all the names I’ve seen recently, I think:

    Most likely: James Franklin. Youth, energy and desire to promote his program. Mike Gundy is an option here too.
    My unrealistic wish: Art Briles. Perfect fit, but why would he leave? Baylor gives him whatever he wants and there’s virtually no pressure.
    My realistic wish: Gus Malzahn. What he’s doing offensively at Auburn is like what Stanford/the 49ers do on steroids. His recent extension is the only reason he’s not the “Most likely” shoice.
    Get the fuck out: Jim Harbaugh. Just back off, Texas.

    Everyone in the Big 12 is praying their dicks off that Texas doesn’t lure Briles from Baylor. It would be game over for everyone else in that conference.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  2. Nate

    @ Like You Care:

    I’m really curious to see if Malzahn/Auburn can run on FSU. I assume they can based of what I saw from them against Bama and Missouri. That stuff is fun to watch, though FSU is loaded. Don’t think they’ve matched up against anything Auburn-level this year though.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  3. dmick89

    Sosa (12.5% last year from BBWAA – Went from 53.8% to 32.1% ON A CUBS BLOG)

    There were just so many better players eligible. I voted for him last year, but not this year. I couldn’t justify it, which is too bad because he’s probably one of my top two favorite players (Maddux).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  4. Like You Care

    @ Nate:

    Mizzou’s DLine is pretty stacked, though. Should be a good matchup.

    If Auburn OT Greg Robinson stays in school until next year, I bet he and Winston are the first picks of next year’s draft. A good game could boost Robinson into this year’s top 5 or so.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  5. Author
    Aisle424

    @ dmick89:

    Yep. Too many worthy players. I went Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Piazza, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Raines, Schilling, Sosa. If I was true to my brain, I would have gone Bagwell over Sosa.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  6. Author
    Aisle424

    Taken together the story of officials Rakuten headquarters, temporary in the organization is opinion that “should not send the Tanaka” spread that was (spread). However, the probing such a situation, it’s began to dispel the concern one by one over a period of time that was the same owner at the top of the organization.

     In addition, thought be in the team to aim the second consecutive next season Pacific League, and allowed to remain Tanaka which is lower the motivation of not a good idea for both Tanaka and team also seems to have a significant impact.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. JimL

    @ dmick89:

    There were just so many better players eligible.

    I think this is going to be a problem. There are so many quality candidates right now that they are splitting votes which is preventing deserving candidates from getting the necessary 75%.

    Even though there are a few candidates I wouldn’t vote for and don’t think truly belong, I wouldn’t consider it a travesty if anybody on that list above Mattingly actually got in.

    Even if one excludes Bonds, McGuire, Sosa, and Palmeiro I think there are at least 10 other players on that list that I could make a reasonable argument for getting in. Maybe not an argument that I completely believe in, but reasonable enough.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  8. Author
    Aisle424

    JimL wrote:

    I think this is going to be a problem. There are so many quality candidates right now that they are splitting votes which is preventing deserving candidates from getting the necessary 75%.

    Yep. Based on the support I’m seeing, I may have overstated the impact it would have on Maddux (but I’m now guessing ~90% from BBWAA), but I wrote about this last year after nobody got in.

    http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/even-greg-maddux-may-have-trouble-getting-into-the-hall-of-fame-next-year.html

    If only Maddux gets in, it will get worse next year: Randy, Pedro, Smoltz and Sheffield join the ballot.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  9. SVB

    By the way, I love the bunt. Probably because bunt, hbp, and BB were the only things I could do adequately in little league.

    I got my mind set to bunt
    I got my mind set to bunt
    I got my mind set to bunt
    I got my mind set to bunt
    But it’s gonna take a shift
    A right defensive shift
    A shortstop in right field shift
    For MO to do it to do it to do it to do it yeah.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  10. Sad WaLi

    Fuck Ray Rice for kneeling the ball instead of scoring a TD. Sonofabitch. Now Dancing Bear Down won’t be going to the super bowl 🙁

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. Like You Care

    @ JimL:

    I subtly told my boss the other day that coaching the University of Texas football team was my dream job. Just waiting on the raise…

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. Like You Care

    @ SVB:

    I think it’s still technically possible, but unlikely. Apparently Saban was interested in the job until he saw the bullshit he’d have to deal with (Longhorn Network appearances, university factions, etc.).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  13. Myles

    Oh, and in my dream scenario…

    CHI over SF
    DAL over NO
    DAL over SEA ((dying laughing))
    CHI over CAR
    CHI over DAL

    SD over CIN
    KC over IND
    SD over DEN ((dying laughing))
    KC over NE ((dying laughing))
    SD over KC

    CHI over SD

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  14. Myles

    I think one of the surest signs that the NCAA is corrupt as fuck is that there could even be rumors that a coach in the NFL would bolt for a fucking college football program. Could you imagine seeing Ned Yost quit to take the Vanderbilt coaching job? Or to see Lloyd McClendon quit Seattle so he can coach the Indianapolis Indians (winners of 3 consecutive division titles!)?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  15. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    If Rodgers comes back for that game, I don’t see how the Bears win. They have the firepower on offense to keep pace but I just don’t see how the defense stops the Packers. But if the Bears do beat the Packers with Rodgers to decide the division then that will build so much confidence for the Bears.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. Berselius

    @ Mucker:

    The Packers defense kind of sucks too, that Bears offense should carve right through it. Though I guess we’ll see how much better they are when they’re not on the field for 75% of the game due to Rodgers being back. Should be an exciting game, take the over.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. Like You Care

    The rumor is that Texas’ coach list four:

    Jimbo Fisher – Not bad
    Gus Malzahn – Top choice
    Jim Harbaugh – Best option, but back off, Texas
    Urban Meyer – No

    Still hoping for Briles, but Malzahn would be tops.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  18. Like You Care

    @ Berselius:

    Good team. Transcendent QB. Weak conference. Texas was good with really good QBs too.

    He’d be an upgrade, but I think he’ll be exposed when vetted.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  19. Like You Care

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000299913/article/brandt-five-coaching-candidates-texas-should-consider?campaign=Twitter_nfl_cb

    I like Gil Brandt, but this is ridiculous:

    Sad part is, I don’t think the University of Texas ever really fully appreciated what he [Mack Brown] did for the school. And Mack’s too much of a gentleman — a throwback to college football’s classier times — to remind them.

    The best we he could have reminded us would have been winning more games. He built the program up, for sure, but complacency and being “too much of a gentleman” let the rest of the conference catch up.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  20. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    The SF coaching staff would have them in the Super Bowl this year. Adding accountability and Jim Harbaugh teaching Matt Stafford how to be a QB…

    [img]http://thedroidyourelookingfor.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/brasco_forgetaboutit.gif?w=500&h=207[/img]

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  21. uncle dave

    dmick89 wrote:

    @ Berselius:
    That could be interesting, but I doubt the team would be re-investing the money and it would largely go to the owners instead. Probably better off seeking trades.

    Well, you’d have buyers and sellers, just like you do now. There’s ample precedent for how this system would work (i.e. international soccer), and it would likely reinforce the gulf between big revenue and small revenue teams. Big teams would spend more than they’d take in by selling, and small teams would take in more by selling than they’d spend, instead focusing on developing younger players. The most notable result would be that almost nobody would ever make it to the end of their contract, because why let a guy walk away who would otherwise have value? It’s similar to how the league is working right now, but I feel like putting an actual dollar amount on a player would change behavior somewhat.

    The system that you see in Europe isn’t all that different than what we have in MLB, really. There’s club control through age 24, and trading a player contingent on the execution of an extension is basically how the transfer system works. The only real difference is you’re getting cash instead of players in return.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. uncle dave

    @ dmick89:
    For some reason, the only things I can remember from the film are the backstage montage that plays over “Young Lust” and the smiling 7-Up billboard with Mike Schmidt on it during the riot scene at the very beginning.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. dmick89

    @ uncle dave:
    I remember it quite well as I’ve seen it at least a dozen times. I doubt I ever saw it sober and probably saw it once while only under the influence of marijuana or alcohol. Still, I remember it because I’ve seen it so many times.

    I had two or three friends that had a copy of it and for some reason “it was cool” to have on while tripping. I didn’t think so, but I didn’t really care either.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. dmick89

    @ uncle dave:
    No doubt. The more I think about that movie, I’m beginning to realize I’ve seen it a lot more than I first thought. I could probably give you a fairly accurate scene by scene in writing. I’m not going to do it as I think it would be as brutal as I think that movie ultimately is. Apparently I’m not the target audience according to Ebert, but I don’t think there was an audience in mind when Waters was doing that. I doubt he even had a very good idea what was going on (with himself and with the movie). I think Waters has gone on to do some great things not involving music (and I love a lot of his music), but that movie isn’t one of them.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  25. dmick89

    I’d liken that movie to this one college basketball game I was watching with a friend in Iowa City on some Saturday afternoon on acid. It was Iowa/Michigan and the score kept saying that Iowa was leading by 20 or so points. It was a blowout. The game was over, but the teams kept playing. It was very confusing at the time and bewildering by the time Michigan is calling timeouts with 90 seconds left like they have a shot to win the game. I was on acid and knew that Michigan had no chance of winning yet there they are, playing basketball like it matters. Very strange. Most confusing game I ever watched. (dying laughing)

    That and the football game in which Iowa was called off-sides because of their shadow.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  26. Like You Care

    @ uncle dave:

    You clearly don’t know who you’re talking to, so let me clue you in. I am not diabetic, Skyler. I am diabetes. A guy opens his door and buys cookies, and you think that of me? No! I am the one who bakes!

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. dmick89

    Seems like you’re paying him based either on one year or his ERA. Walk rate 13%-ish from 2010-2012 is a bit worrisome. Better last year, but pretty small sample. Don’t have time to write about this until Thursday so that will have to do for my analysis.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  28. SVB

    Mucker wrote:

    @ Like You Care:
    I agree. I’d hate to see how good the Lions could be with a competent HC.

    Never fear. The Lions have proven over and over they cannot hire a competent HC. Since 2000:
    Bobby Ross
    Gary Moeller
    Marty Mornhinweg
    Steve Mariucci
    Dick Jauron
    Rod Marinelli
    Jim Schwartz

    I guess you could argue that Mooch was competent.

    dmick89 wrote:

    I could probably give you a fairly accurate scene by scene in writing. I’m not going to do it

    THANK YOU.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  29. uncle dave

    @ SVB:
    I’d forgotten about Moeller. He was the coach at Illinois when I went to my very first live football game, a stunning 0-0 draw with Northwestern. Fortunately, I was 5 and did not remember much of anything that was going on. Reliable sources tell me it was absurd even by Illinois standards.

    How that guy got consistent head coaching gigs is beyond me. I guess it pays to be one of Bo’s boys.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  30. uncle dave

    @ dmick89:
    Well, he’s making $4MM, or about the going rate for half of a win. That’s consistent with the value he’s provided over the past several years.

    This isn’t exactly the signature move we’ve been clamoring for, but he’s likely to be a decent cog in the pen, with a bit of upside (i.e. he could be as good as he was last year) and good prognosis for a trade later on. Tough to argue with it.

    The commentary around Axford’s decision to sign with Cleveland (aside from the ‘oh, thank God’ coming from the fans of every other team in the league) makes me wonder if the Cubs will struggle to sign guys on short contracts without taking major risk or overpaying. I can’t say I’d blame guys for not wanting to sign with a team knowing in advance that they were likely to be flipped mid-season. It also makes me wonder what kind of premium they’ll have to pay to get a major signing to hop on board prior to the arrival of young core talent.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  31. JimL

    @ uncle dave:

    I can’t say I’d blame guys for not wanting to sign with a team knowing in advance that they were likely to be flipped mid-season.

    Actually I would think of it as a benefit. Sign a one year deal with the Cubs and know that for the second half of the season you will be playing for a contender.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  32. Rice Cube

    @ JimL:
    @ uncle dave:

    Guy also has to deal with the possibility that the Cubs will want Mike Trout in the trade return #hyperbole

    (someone tweeted earlier that the Cubs wanted Jason Heyward from the Braves in a F7 trade, so I’m just running with the gag)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  33. Author
    Aisle424

    JimL wrote:

    Actually I would think of it as a benefit. Sign a one year deal with the Cubs and know that for the second half of the season you will be playing for a contender.

    Yep. It’s worked out well for Feldman, Maholm, and DeJesus. Schierholtz will probably benefit this year, and maybe Baker.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  34. Edwin

    @ Aisle424:

    Plus if they are traded mid year they don’t have to be tied to a qualifying offer. I guess that probably doesn’t apply to relievers, but it might make a difference to some players.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  35. Andrew J

    @ JimL:

    There’s also more to life than winning baseball games. It may seem silly given how much these players make but taking a job in a different city with the expectation that youre going to move in less than a year I could see as a nuisance. These are real men with real families in many cases after all.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  36. dmick89

    @ uncle dave:
    It’s a small enough amount of money it’s probably not worth arguing about. I think it was an overpay, but relievers are typically getting more than they should. I’d gripe about nearly all of them being signed to what they get, but I wouldn’t spend more than a couple minutes arguing about. I figure anything under $10 million annually, assuming it’s not an unusually long deal, isn’t worth arguing about. Considering the uncertainty in our expectations, any deal that’s 3 years and 30 million or less is probably justifiable. Probably.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  37. Myles

    I just started watching Breaking Bad, and I’m 2 episodes into Season 2. Good so far, but I hope it gets better because this isn’t the incredible phenomenon that I’ve been led to believe.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  38. Like You Care

    Everyone wrote:

    I just started watching Breaking Bad, and I’m 2 episodes into Season 2. Good so far, but I hope it gets better because this isn’t the incredible phenomenon that I’ve been led to believe.

    Don’t confuse a deliberate pace with a slow one.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  39. Like You Care

    @ Rice Cube:

    I hate to oversell, but I thought Seasons 3-5 was the best thing to ever appear on a screen. There were moments in each of those seasons that blew me away. Cinematically, some of the best shit ever.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  40. dmick89

    @ Like You Care:
    What about Beverly Hills, 90210?

    Seriously though, I don’t disagree. I’d even go further and say that season 5b eps 5-7 were the best 2+ hours ever.

    I completely agree with you regarding “tidy.” I was reading Greenwald’s top 10 for the year and he mentioned that.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  41. dmick89

    @ Like You Care:
    How could they match the character development in 90210? You could go from completely clean to drug addict out of control to completely clean and life looking rosy in a span of 3 hours. Breaking Bad just never had that kind of intensity or pace.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  42. Rice Cube

    @ Like You Care:
    I don’t think I am giving away too many spoilers when I say how amused yet strangely disappointed I am in the questionable decisions Walt keeps making. Then again, that’s pretty obvious when you resort to cooking crystal meth.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  43. Suburban kid

    It was over 35 years since I bought me some dumbass steer slappin’, tequila guzzling ZZ Top music. Until today.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  44. uncle dave

    @ Suburban kid:
    I picked up “Their Complete Studio Albums” box set for like thirty bucks a couple of months ago. An absolute steal. Billy Gibbons doesn’t get anywhere near the respect he deserves.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment