It looked for a short time like the Cubs might have somehow pulled their 8th straight win out of their ass, but then they finally remembered they were the Cubs.
Among many plays that the Cubs probably wish they could have back, was the slip and fall of Marlon Byrd that turned a fairly routine out into a double for Joey Votto. Of course, this is not entirely Byrd’s fault as you can see from the photo:
The miraculous comeback finish resumes again tonight against the Washington Nationals (assuming, of course, that they can stay on their feet).
Comments
[quote name=JMan]So essentially Jackson is Soriano but with a little less power, better defense and the ability to take a walk.[/quote]
You can’t do that. Comps must be the same race.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
This is to make up for the earlier Byrd “double” that Drew Stubbs flubbed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Stupid Byrd.
binkyQuote Reply
Here are some screencaps of that Campana slide I was bitching about yesterday
BerseliusQuote Reply
Pablo Sandoval did the same thing to Jimmy Rollins yesterday. Jimmy just jumped over him.
binkyQuote Reply
He slid a bit late, but he stayed down, and wasn’t obviously not even attempting to reach the base. Plus he didn’t spike or elbow the fielder, so I don’t put this in the Holliday category.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]He slid a bit late, but he stayed down, and wasn’t obviously not even attempting to reach the base. Plus he didn’t spike or elbow the fielder, so I don’t put this in the Holliday category.[/quote]
I don’t either, but it annoys me that plays like this are considered “clean”. When the umpire was emphatically signaling an out I thought it was because they were giving the Reds the double play due to interference.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Plus, why is he just standing there, waiting to get hit? Castro was gliding away from the base when Holliday went after him. This dude is just plopped on the base like he owns it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I don’t have a problem with a good hard clean slide that is meant to disrupt a play. Holliday was trying to injure Castro. There is a big difference.
Aisle424Quote Reply
BTW, B, feel free to put up the Preview whenever. I just didn’t want to not put up a Pic for yesterday’s game.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Does anyone have a video of castros homer yesterday?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Does anyone have a video of castros homer yesterday?[/quote]
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17754041&c_id=chc
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17754041&c_id=chc[/quote]Thanks B
looked for it today and couldnt find it., I really think he will hit 15 or 20 homers one year
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
CarrieMuskat Carrie Muskat
Congrats to #Cubs Starlin Castro, named NL Player of the Week after hitting .515 last week
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
I hope Aroldis Chapman gets tried as a starter someday. I’d rather see him get a chance to become the next Randy Johnson than the next Billy Wagner (not that there’s anything wrong with Wagner).
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]CarrieMuskat Carrie Muskat
Congrats to #Cubs Starlin Castro, named NL Player of the Week after hitting .515 last week[/quote]
I can’t believe it. He went 1-5 on Thursday. Unbelievable.
/KG
BerseliusQuote Reply
Player of the Week is kind of silly (small sample sizes and such), but I’m happy for him, anyway.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t have a problem with a good hard clean slide that is meant to disrupt a play. Holliday was trying to injure Castro. There is a big difference.[/quote]
When a man confronts you, he is the enemy.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
It just occurred to me that Cassie’s PoW doesn’t even include yesterday’s 2-5 with a HR (though he hit a homer last week, too).
ACTQuote Reply
Player orf the week is silly. I jsut really like castro. He makes bubbles smile
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I hope Aroldis Chapman gets tried as a starter someday. I’d rather see him get a chance to become the next Randy Johnson than the next Billy Wagner (not that there’s anything wrong with Wagner).[/quote]I agree. I thought this was the plan all along. Seems like a waste of his talent to just use him as a closer.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I agree. I thought this was the plan all along. Seems like a waste of his talent to just use him as a closer.[/quote]Agreed. As hard as that guy throws, they better take their time doing it. Hate to see him blow his elbow out.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Here are some screencaps of that Campana slide I was bitching about yesterday
Wow, he was almost perpendicular to the basepath. That’s a pretty good take-out slide for a midget.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
For one of you stat fags whow many WAR would castro be worth this year with even mildly solid defense.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]For one of you stat fags whow many WAR would castro be worth this year with even mildly solid defense.[/quote]His defense was 5 pts better last year and his WAR was 2.1. This year it’s 2.4 with a -7 compared to a -2
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]For one of you stat fags whow many WAR would castro be worth this year with even mildly solid defense.[/quote]
Just go to fangraphs or b-ref and subtract off however many fielding runs they’re crediting him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Does anyone have a video of castros homer yesterday?[/quote]
Cubs.com does.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17754041&c_id=chc
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t have a problem with a good hard clean slide that is meant to disrupt a play. Holliday was trying to injure Castro. There is a big difference.[/quote]
I don’t think he was trying to injure Castro but he went down way late and thus made the play look a lot dirtier (I’m not really an expert on dirtiness though). I note that both Campana and Holliday seem to have overslid the bag. Holliday with the wider wingspan would’ve been able to slide further out and still reach the bag. Campana stayed pretty much within the basepaths. I would consider it a judgment call, but regardless I think that was a pretty sweet slide by Campana. I also think Holliday could’ve done without the elbow to the chest and the spikes up, but I felt like that was a function of him being taller than Campana and also sliding late. It’s not like he railroaded Castro like that Albert Belle incident (I forgot who the unfortunate MIF was on that play).
I’m almost certain that if Holliday had been the Cub and Castro had been the Cardinal, Holliday would’ve been cheered by Cubs fans for a good hard slide while the Cards would’ve cried bloody murder.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think he was trying to injure Castro but he went down way late and thus made the play look a lot dirtier (I’m not really an expert on dirtiness though). I note that both Campana and Holliday seem to have overslid the bag. Holliday with the wider wingspan would’ve been able to slide further out and still reach the bag. Campana stayed pretty much within the basepaths. I would consider it a judgment call, but regardless I think that was a pretty sweet slide by Campana. I also think Holliday could’ve done without the elbow to the chest and the spikes up, but I felt like that was a function of him being taller than Campana and also sliding late. It’s not like he railroaded Castro like that Albert Belle incident (I forgot who the unfortunate MIF was on that play).
I’m almost certain that if Holliday had been the Cub and Castro had been the Cardinal, Holliday would’ve been cheered by Cubs fans for a good hard slide while the Cards would’ve cried bloody murder.[/quote]And he would have been plunked by TLR.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]And he would have been plunked by TLR.[/quote]
Correct.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Literally, La Russa would have thrown the pitch himself.
binkyQuote Reply
Yall have any thoughts on if Sean marshall should start?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]
I’m almost certain that if Holliday had been the Cub and Castro had been the Cardinal, Holliday would’ve been cheered by Cubs fans for a good hard slide while the Cards would’ve cried bloody murder.[/quote]
I’m sure that is true. However, without being able to know exactly what was in Holliday’s mind at the time, his actions were those of someone seeming to go out of his way to injure someone as a means to stop the pivot.
Campana went over the top of the bag for Christ’s sake. The guy just stood there. Of course he got hit.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]For one of you stat fags whow many WAR would castro be worth this year with even mildly solid defense.[/quote]Here’s what you do:
1. Start with an existing WAR table: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS#value
2, Substitute whatever number you like in the defensive runs catagory.
3. Get RAR by adding up the previous 5 columns
4. Divide by ~9.5 to convert to WAR.
So, if Castro were average at defense, his fWAR would be 3.2, that is (7.3+1.0+0+16.8+5.1)/9.5
ACTQuote Reply
b-ref’s WAR is similar: add up the columns before RAR and divide by some factor (changes every year) to get WAR.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Yall have any thoughts on if Sean marshall should start?[/quote]I’ve wondered why they haven’t at least tried this. I know a late inning guy is important, but why burn a decent starter to get it?
binkyQuote Reply
Last year it made sense, as Marshall was the least impressive starter behind several good candidates, but this year it makes no sense to keep him as a late inning guy, I don’t think.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Campana went over the top of the bag for Christ’s sake. The guy just stood there. Of course he got hit.[/quote]
Yeah, I wasn’t talking about you specifically. I am pretty sure there were plays similar to Campana’s and Holliday’s where the MIF actually got seriously injured and they were still considered “clean”. I’m not sure if the slide that injured Nishioka was considered clean or not but the guy was out for a couple months with a broken leg.
Sometimes it seems to me that “clean” is if the player is upended but not seriously injured, but “dirty” pretty much describes any play where someone breaks something even if it looks similar to a play that would otherwise be “clean”.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Last year it made sense, as Marshall was the least impressive starter behind several good candidates, but this year it makes no sense to keep him as a late inning guy, I don’t think.[/quote]
They might as well give it a shot, but it seems to me that the Cubs are looking to add more starter pitching after this season so Marshall might not get that shot.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Marhall below average as a starter. He had a huge spike in his velocity and his strikeout rate after being moved to relief. I’d be interested in whether he’d be able to retain that improvement as a starter, however.
ACTQuote Reply
The word missing in the first sentence is “was.”
ACTQuote Reply
I jsugt dont see why not to try it
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah, I wasn’t talking about you specifically. I am pretty sure there were plays similar to Campana’s and Holliday’s where the MIF actually got seriously injured and they were still considered “clean”. I’m not sure if the slide that injured Nishioka was considered clean or not but the guy was out for a couple months with a broken leg.
Sometimes it seems to me that “clean” is if the player is upended but not seriously injured, but “dirty” pretty much describes any play where someone breaks something even if it looks similar to a play that would otherwise be “clean”.[/quote]Nishioka, similar to (whoever that Reds player is), didn’t jump out of the way.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I jsugt dont see why not to try it[/quote]Our bullpen would take a hit, though. Has Samardzija been better lately, or is that just wishful thinking?
binkyQuote Reply
If they can get CC or somebody like that, then Marsh will probably stay in the BP. Is Dempster’s contract up at the end of the year?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I jsugt dont see why not to try it[/quote]
We’re trying to win games here.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I think shark has been alright this year.. I mean he has had some bad games buyt i trust him more than wood right now
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Was he any good as a starter? Assuming he has his command issues under control, he might be someone they consider. It’s not like the free agent starter pool is going to be that great, barring a CC opt out.
binkyQuote Reply
i cant see the yankees not resigning CC..
I know he will opt out but he is worth so much $$ i dont think wee have a chance
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I don’t either, but it annoys me that plays like this are considered “clean”. When the umpire was emphatically signaling an out I thought it was because they were giving the Reds the double play due to interference.[/quote]What’s funny is that I think this play appears to be much worse than Holliday’s, but I didn’t care about Holliday’s play to begin with.
mb21Quote Reply
In response to the earlier conversation about Castro- in defensive WAR, Fangraphs has Ryan Theriot at -8.4 for 2011, with Castro at -7.1 So, obviously there’s a difference of 1.3 WAR there, but that seems really hard to believe for me.
I think we were all pretty amazed how Castro was able to reach balls that Theriot never had a chance in hell at. I know I certainly was. At the risk of this turning into another redundant scouting versus advanced metrics debate, I have an extremely hard time believing Castro was almost as bad as Theriot in the field. It just doesn’t seem believable to me. Obviously this is why we have advanced metrics- to make up for the discrepancies of our eyes, and I can accept my eyes have been wrong previously, but suggesting Castro is THAT bad in the field is very hard for me to believe based on what I’ve seen him do in the field.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Is there something I’m not getting here? A component of UZR I don’t understand? I find a large portion of the time I look at UZR, I find it to be so highly inconsistent and extreme I can hardly accept its validity, and therefore can’t accept the WAR figures based on it. I guess I’m often willing to accept what seems strange if I’m not familiar with the players, but guys like Castro, Theriot, or perhaps Fukudome as well, it just smells funny to me.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Nishioka, similar to (whoever that Reds player is), didn’t jump out of the way.[/quote]
It’s a white-ish guy so I think it was Janish. Campana’s slide was such that Janish had to jump over him because he wouldn’t have been able to sidestep, at least I don’t think so.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]What’s funny is that I think this play appears to be much worse than Holliday’s, but I didn’t care about Holliday’s play to begin with.[/quote]
How so?
Aisle424Quote Reply
Not only that, but I think if Ryan Theriot was the shortstop Cubs fans, on average, would have cared less about it.
My question is this: how often have players been seriously injured after such plays? I see these guys slide hard and try their best to take the infielder out all the time and I honestly can’t even remember one of them having to leave the game. I’d say it has less of a chance of injury than there is of a collision at 1st base where the baserunner is running as fast as he can and serious injury could happen quite easily.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]What’s funny is that I think this play appears to be much worse than Holliday’s, but I didn’t care about Holliday’s play to begin with.[/quote]
berselius ———> vaguely vindicated (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Last year it made sense, as Marshall was the least impressive starter behind several good candidates, but this year it makes no sense to keep him as a late inning guy, I don’t think.[/quote]I’d let him finish the year as a reliever at this point and then stretch him out later. It wouldn’t be the first time a mediocre young starter turned into a lights-out reliever and then went back to the rotation and was much improved. Justin Duchscherer, Ryan Dempster, CJ Wilson….
The WreckardQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]In response to the earlier conversation about Castro- in defensive WAR, Fangraphs has Ryan Theriot at -8.4 for 2011, with Castro at -7.1 So, obviously there’s a difference of 1.3 WAR there, but that seems really hard to believe for me.
I think we were all pretty amazed how Castro was able to reach balls that Theriot never had a chance in hell at. I know I certainly was. At the risk of this turning into another redundant scouting versus advanced metrics debate, I have an extremely hard time believing Castro was almost as bad as Theriot in the field. It just doesn’t seem believable to me. Obviously this is why we have advanced metrics- to make up for the discrepancies of our eyes, and I can accept my eyes have been wrong previously, but suggesting Castro is THAT bad in the field is very hard for me to believe based on what I’ve seen him do in the field.[/quote]
I don’t understand how the ratings are calculated, but I would bet money on the fact that Theriot’s range blew and Castro has a tendency to do ill-advised things with the baseball once he has it.
Theriot tended to make the routine plays. Castro makes the spectacular plays, and has more opportunities to do bad things with the baseball.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]I’d let him finish the year as a reliever at this point and then stretch him out later. It wouldn’t be the first time a mediocre young starter turned into a lights-out reliever and then went back to the rotation and was much improved. Justin Duchscherer, Ryan Dempster, CJ Wilson….[/quote]Kind of what I was thinking as well.
Nishioka is the only guy I can remember getting seriously hurt on a slide. He didn’t jump at all. The guy slid wide and long, something like Campana, and nailed Nishioka in the leg, busting it.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Is there something I’m not getting here? A component of UZR I don’t understand? I find a large portion of the time I look at UZR, I find it to be so highly inconsistent and extreme I can hardly accept its validity, and therefore can’t accept the WAR figures based on it. I guess I’m often willing to accept what seems strange if I’m not familiar with the players, but guys like Castro, Theriot, or perhaps Fukudome as well, it just smells funny to me.[/quote]
I hate UZR or any of those other metrics as a single-season measure. Just about everyone uses single-season numbers when calculating full season WAR but even those are too granular to be reliable. If I were making some sort of historical WAR database like Rally’s I’d use multi-season averages combined with some relatively heavy regression (depending on the sample, and against FSR if available) to estimate defense in a single season. All we can conclude from Castro’s defensive numbers so far is that he’s below average, but who knows by how much.
I’d go more by FSR, or better yet some hypothetical FSR where the people coming up with the numbers are pro scouts.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’d be shocked if some pro org doesn’t have a scout-based system like FSR in place.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Not only that, but I think if Ryan Theriot was the shortstop Cubs fans, on average, would have cared less about it.
[/quote]
Holliday might have even been cheered.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t understand how the ratings are calculated, but I would bet money on the fact that Theriot’s range blew and Castro has a tendency to do ill-advised things with the baseball once he has it.
Theriot tended to make the routine plays. Castro makes the spectacular plays, and has more opportunities to do bad things with the baseball.[/quote]Yeah, most of Castro’s negatives come from errant throws, but he has good range. My hope is that it indicates a mental problem, where as he gains confidence, he’ll just let himself go like he does on the spectacular plays, and end up being good. On the other hand, a guy like Asdrubal Cabrera makes amazing plays, but screws up the easy ones, and he’s been doing it for years.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]How so?[/quote]It’s rare you see a player overslide the bag as much as Campana did there. It’s even rarer when you see a guy go in at that angle. As such, it seems to me that one type of takeout is appreciated or taught over another and Campana chose to do something that isn’t taught. In other words, the rarity of the slide like that leaves more chance for injury because the fielder hasn’t practiced over and over how to avoid it.
But really I don’t have a problem with what he did. I think it’s a fine play as you mentioned earlier. Where we really disagree is that I also think the Holliday slide was a fine play. I don’t have a problem with either and I mentioned to berselius yesterday that it was unlikely I’d find any play around the bag to be dirty. This play is taught to the players. They all do it. The fielders are prepared for it. They work on it. It is actually something they practice just like hitting and fielding. They don’t practice throwing at someone’s head. They don’t practice trying to the knock the ball out of the glove with your hand and they don’t teach trying to fool the baserunner by calling “I got it.” None of those are a part of the game. Taking the runner out is.
I think Holliday could have done it better, but I think Holliday realized at a later point than you’d like that he needs to slide.
mb21Quote Reply
You know, Jeter gets regularly criticized for making easy plays look harder than they needed to be, but maybe treating every play like a spectacular play is how he is able to let his body take over and stop overthinking.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I hate UZR or any of those other metrics as a single-season measure. Just about everyone uses single-season numbers when calculating full season WAR but even those are too granular to be reliable. If I were making some sort of historical WAR database like Rally’s I’d use multi-season averages combined with some relatively heavy regression (depending on the sample, and against FSR if available) to estimate defense in a single season. All we can conclude from Castro’s defensive numbers so far is that he’s below average, but who knows by how much.
I’d go more by FSR, or better yet some hypothetical FSR where the people coming up with the numbers are pro scouts.[/quote]If I wanted a more accurate WAR for Castro I’d look at what his defensive projection was entering the season and use that. I’d probably regress it 50% to league average before I used it because he has so little playing time entering the season.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I don’t understand how the ratings are calculated, but I would bet money on the fact that Theriot’s range blew and Castro has a tendency to do ill-advised things with the baseball once he has it.
Theriot tended to make the routine plays. Castro makes the spectacular plays, and has more opportunities to do bad things with the baseball.[/quote]
Yeah, I think it’s important to note that there are several aspects of fielding. Theriot’s range sucked compared to Castro’s, but Theriot also made the throws. Castro is inconsistent with his. Theriot didn’t have as much of a tendency to boot the easy ones.
in the end my guess is that neither of them are near what their UZR, DRS or whatever else says. They’re probably both closer to their projection. Theriot perhaps a bit worse considering his age and maybe the opposite for Castro.
mb21Quote Reply
MGL has said many times that if you want to use single season UZR you MUST regress it. Take the full season and regress it by 66%.
mb21Quote Reply
Here’s the official rule that should apply to both Campana and Holliday
It basically boils down to a judgement call by the umpire as to what counts as “willful and deliberate” interference. Players are taught to slide that way because the umpires don’t call it. I just wish that they did. It doesn’t get more obvious than those two plays.
BerseliusQuote Reply
When seasonal projections are created, do they incorporate past UZR performance into them? I wouldn’t even know where to start creating a seasonal projection for Castro at this point in his career.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If I wanted a more accurate WAR for Castro I’d look at what his defensive projection was entering the season and use that. I’d probably regress it 50% to league average before I used it because he has so little playing time entering the season.[/quote]Is that a stats way of saying “just guess”?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Here’s the official rule that should apply to both Campana and Holliday
It basically boils down to a judgement call by the umpire as to what counts as “willful and deliberate” interference. Players are taught to slide that way because the umpires don’t call it. I just wish that they did. It doesn’t get more obvious than those two plays.[/quote]
I agree with this. If the umpires always called a double play on these take-out slides, the players wouldn’t do it unless they were total assholes.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]When seasonal projections are created, do they incorporate past UZR performance into them? I wouldn’t even know where to start creating a seasonal projection for Castro at this point in his career.[/quote]
It depends on what forecasting system you’re using, or course. Most projection systems just do offensive numbers. BP includes whatever their current fielding system is. Actually all of the ones I can think of don’t use UZR. Typically it’s something that we tack on to the offensive projections here. I seem to recall using a UZR projection spreadsheet from BtB before the 2010 season.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Is that a stats way of saying “just guess”?[/quote]
That’s stats way of saying “small sample size”
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]That’s stats way of saying “small sample size”[/quote]That’s what she said…?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Here’s the official rule that should apply to both Campana and Holliday
It basically boils down to a judgement call by the umpire as to what counts as “willful and deliberate” interference. Players are taught to slide that way because the umpires don’t call it. I just wish that they did. It doesn’t get more obvious than those two plays.[/quote]I didn’t realize the rule was that explicit. So this is another case of unwritten rules trumping the rule book.
Just let robots call the plays. I’m sick of the unwritten rules.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]In response to the earlier conversation about Castro- in defensive WAR, Fangraphs has Ryan Theriot at -8.4 for 2011, with Castro at -7.1 So, obviously there’s a difference of 1.3 WAR there, but that seems really hard to believe for me.
[/quote]Correction: that’s a difference of 1.3 runs. In terms of WAR, it would be about .14. Theriot also hasn’t had as much playing time as Castro.
ACTQuote Reply
As to the point about defensive metrics being highly variable, look at monthly hitting stats. They go all over the place.
ACTQuote Reply
Here’s Castro’s wRAA (runs above average according to wWOBA) by month:
0.8
-5.1
7.9
2.3
-4.4
5.7
-.1
2.9
-4.9
6.6
ACTQuote Reply
Wow rain and thunder. Methinks tonight’s game might be delayed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Obviously players can be streaky on a monthly basis. I’m more concerned about seasonal WAR totals that incorporate wildly fluctuating defensive metrics. In the course of a season, I think we can both agree that the monthly inconsistencies give way to a more complete picture of a player, as they generally do offensively. The degree to which UZR ratings fluctuate seem to be on a far greater scale, on average, then do offensive ones, also, from year to year.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]The degree to which UZR ratings fluctuate seem to be on a far greater scale, on average, then do offensive ones, also, from year to year.[/quote]
Only four commas. I need to up my game, obviously. (dying laughing)
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
The problem is that 1 year of defense is a much smaller sample size than 1 year of offense. You can’t reason that defensive metrics should be as stable year-to-year as offensive ones.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Wow rain and thunder. Methinks tonight’s game might be delayed.[/quote]
Radar has it projected to be clearing by about 6:30 and gone by about 7:15. Then it comes back around 9:30.
I’m betting it isn’t delayed long, if at all, and it gets delayed around the 7th inning. Then Quade will be ejected.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]The problem is that 1 year of defense is a much smaller sample size than 1 year of offense. You can’t reason that defensive metrics should be as stable year-to-year as offensive ones.[/quote]
I don’t quite follow you here.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]I don’t quite follow you here.[/quote]Over the course of 1 year, a batter has hundreds of plate appearances. A defender has much fewer chances.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Over the course of 1 year, a batter has hundreds of plate appearances. A defender has much fewer chances.[/quote]OK, that’s not quite right (not necessarily). But the chances are different. A shortstop might get lots of chances, but they’re mostly on routine plays. You need much more than 1 year of defensive stats to get data as reliable as 1 year of offensive stats.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Radar has it projected to be clearing by about 6:30 and gone by about 7:15. Then it comes back around 9:30.
I’m betting it isn’t delayed long, if at all, and it gets delayed around the 7th inning. Then Quade will be ejected.[/quote]
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15201747
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Over the course of 1 year, a batter has hundreds of plate appearances. A defender has much fewer chances.[/quote]
Right. I realize that is the case, and that is part of why I don’t trust UZR. I was merely suggesting that offensively numbers are better able to average out over the course of the season, which is why we can better trust yearly offesnive statistics to give us a more complete picture of a player then we can defensive ones.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Right. I realize that is the case, and that is part of why I don’t trust UZR. I was merely suggesting that offensively numbers are better able to average out over the course of the season, which is why we can better trust yearly offesnive statistics to give us a more complete picture of a player then we can defensive ones.[/quote]I think you guys are saying the same thing in a slightly different way.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15201747[/quote]Who was the pitcher? The Cubs have gone through so many, I can’t keep them all straight. Scott Maine? Is that a real person?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I think you guys are saying the same thing in a slightly different way.[/quote]
Yeah, I think so.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Who was the pitcher? The Cubs have gone through so many, I can’t keep them all straight. Scott Maine? Is that a real person?[/quote]
He’s real. He also kind of sucks, which makes him a true Cub.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]He’s real. He also kind of sucks, which makes him a true Cub.[/quote]Remember that one time when the Cubs actually produced good pitchers from their farm system? I miss those days.
binkyQuote Reply
Misleading headlines ftw:
NL’s leading hitter, Starlin sees work pay off
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110807&content_id=22878766¬ebook_id=22879228&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Misleading headlines ftw:
NL’s leading hitter, Starlin sees work pay off
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110807&content_id=22878766¬ebook_id=22879228&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc[/quote]Is it just me, or did Sori call Castro lazy?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Remember that one time when the Cubs actually produced good pitchers from their farm system? I miss those days.[/quote]
When was that?
Aisle424Quote Reply
Sorry, I misread that as “good hitters” for some reason.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Sorry, I misread that as “good hitters” for some reason.[/quote]Right, yeah, I mean Maddox, Wood and Prior are really the only ones I can recall, so it’s not exactly that great any way you look at it.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Is it just me, or did Sori call Castro lazy?[/quote]
I’m sure there are days when guys don’t want to go to the cage before the team BP. I’d be surprised if most players don’t do their own workout in a cage every. Single. Day.
But Soriano apparently does (which is consistent with reports that he is the hardest working guy in the clubhouse) and he’s teaching Castro the importance of getting in your swings.
Of course, most fans and the media don’t want Starlin anywhere near Soriano because he’s such a “bad influence.”
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Right, yeah, I mean Maddox, Wood and Prior are really the only ones I can recall, so it’s not exactly that great any way you look at it.[/quote]Zambrano
ACTQuote Reply
Jon Garland started in the Cubs system, but was traded.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Zambrano[/quote]Who?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m sure there are days when guys don’t want to go to the cage before the team BP. I’d be surprised if most players don’t do their own workout in a cage every. Single. Day.
But Soriano apparently does (which is consistent with reports that he is the hardest working guy in the clubhouse) and he’s teaching Castro the importance of getting in your swings.
Of course, most fans and the media don’t want Starlin anywhere near Soriano because he’s such a “bad influence.”[/quote]No, it’s a good thing. Soriano I think works hard, but his body has started to fail him.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Right, yeah, I mean Maddox, Wood and Prior are really the only ones I can recall, so it’s not exactly that great any way you look at it.[/quote]
Well, Zambrano. Plus Moyer. Trachsel was an average pitcher, who was better than what they are churning out now.
Farnsworth is still around, as is Juan Cruz as useful bullpen guys.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Still not overly impressive.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I didn’t think Farnsworth would last at all, but he’s done all right by himself.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]No, it’s a good thing. Soriano I think works hard, but his body has started to fail him.[/quote]
Yeah, but that’s only because his body is so lazy and selfish.
Aisle424Quote Reply
The Giants and Padres pull a Tim Lincecum out of their asses every other year, it seems.
binkyQuote Reply
Kyle Farnsworth could have been much better if he wasn’t such a fucking pathetic drunk.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Wells’ career got off to a good start and then…
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]The Giants and Padres pull a Tim Lincecum out of their asses every other year, it seems.[/quote]There has to be a better way of wording that…
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Wells’ career got off to a good start and then…[/quote]He just doesn’t miss bats anymore. I don’t what the source of this problem might be, though.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]There has to be a better way of wording that…[/quote]Other teams seem to shit solid prospects.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Right. I realize that is the case, and that is part of why I don’t trust UZR. I was merely suggesting that offensively numbers are better able to average out over the course of the season, which is why we can better trust yearly offesnive statistics to give us a more complete picture of a player then we can defensive ones.[/quote]But if you’re getting into only accepting WAR using stats as reliable as hitting, what about pitchers? One season isn’t quite as reliable as one season of hitting. For a reliever it’s even less reliable than fielding. What about base running?
It sounds to me like you’re wanting to use true talent level, which if that’s the case, using seasonal wOBA or other batting metrics isn’t any good either. Especially for part-time players. The batting runs or wOBA a batter has over a season more than likely doesn’t reflect his true talent level. Reed Johnson isn’t as good a hitter as he’s ten this season.
The question you really want to ask is what type of WAR do you want? Do you want WAR that measures what happened on the field without regard for luck? I prefer that, which is why I’m reluctant now to use FIP in WAR. FIP doesn’t tell us what happened. It only tells us about 3 stats and ignores everything else.
The best way to deal with this, in my opinion, is to just accept that there’s a lot of variance in WAR because of the variance in all of the components used to calculate it. There’s a certain error for base running, defense and even batting. If you like, you can subtract the fielding and base running or just look at the batting runs. I’m pretty sure Fangraphs has that. If they don’t, you can get it by subtracting fielding and base running.
As for pitchers, I don’t know. FIP definitely doesn’t measure what happened. You might prefer rWAR because Rally uses run average and then subtracts team defense. If a team is -10 and some guy was on the mound for 200 innings out of the 1450 they threw, then 13.8% of the fielding is subtracted for that pitcher (that’s the percentage of the total innings the pitcher threw). If you believe defense doesn’t slump, this is the way to go. If you want to incorporate batted balls, you can get rid of FIP and add in tRA or SIERA. Still not a measure of what happened, but it might be better than FIP. I don’t know though.
mb21Quote Reply
I admire the confidence in the guy who’s standing on the side in his friend’s ability to not foul one right at his face.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]There has to be a better way of wording that…[/quote]I blame my frustration-tinged pseuduaphed-head sickness.
binkyQuote Reply
preview up http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/previews/series-preview-washington-nationals-55-59-at-the-untouchables-49-66.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I blame my frustration-tinged pseuduaphed-head sickness.[/quote]I thought the inclusion of the article “a” salvaged the statement. It makes it clear that I’m genericizing Tim Lincecum as a concept of really good pitcher. Plus, maybe it’s just the medicine, but I thought it was funny.
binkyQuote Reply