Patrick Newman and The Japan Times on NPB posting fees

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick8935 Comments

The Japan Times published an article yesterday about how the new posting system agreement puts Rakuten (Masahiro Tanaka's team) in an unfavorable position

The Eagles were widely expected to post Tanaka this offseason, but the newly agreed upon system, complete with a $20 million cap on posting fees, seems to have the team rethinking things.

“First of all, discuss it with him,” Rakuten president Yozo Tachibana was quoted as saying by AP from MLB’s winter meetings in Orlando. “I don’t know if he wants to do it.” Tachibana has said his priority is to convince Tanaka to remain with Rakuten.

Under the auspices of the old agreement, the Eagles were virtually guaranteed a financial windfall. Now they won’t even recoup market value whether Tanaka is posted or leaves as a free agent two seasons from now.

Ironically, the system hurriedly pieced together to facilitate Tanaka’s move could keep him in Japan.

If nothing else, Rakuten’s newfound hesitance can’t bode well for future superstars as things currently stand.

I'm not sure there's anything in the article that we haven't already figured out, but it's a good read anyway. In the end, this concerns so few players that it's not going to have a big impact. Only Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa and Yu Darvish have had posting fees exceed $20 million. 

Patrick Newman has a disucssion with his brain on NPB Tracker that is also a good read. 

People seem particularly annoyed by the $51m fee that Boston paid to Seibu for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and it’s understandable given his performance, but what gets overlooked is that it’s not unusual MLB teams transfer money to one another. No one batted an eye at Detroit including $30m in the recent Prince FielderIan Kinsler trade. No one cared that Texas agreed to send the Yankees $67m to help them undo their A-Rod mistake either.

So this is really about one guy then.

Yeah, probably. If Masahiro Tanaka wasn’t perfectly positioned to command another $50m+ posting fee, I doubt anyone would be having this discussion, at least not right now. There’s no one else in NPB that immediately commands to mind as being that hot a commodity; the other elite players are a few years away. So this is really about preventing his price from getting out of hand. The smarter thing might have been for MLB to try to push this kind of change through last year, when there were no postings from NPB. Hyun-Jin Ryu was posted from KBO, but I have to assume that it would have been easier to sell KBO on a $20m limit.

I'd have been against the max bid even if it was set last year, but when the reason for doing so this year is so obvious, it's even more frustrating. The "small-market" complaints about spending should fall on deaf ears when 1) acquiring Japanese players is cheaper than MLB free agents and 2) they're basically fucking the NPB while complaining poor. 

I don't believe there should be anything to save MLB teams from themselves when it comes to spending. If they want to spend, spend. If they don't, don't. I'll quote GW from yesterday:

on some level, i admit that i hope they don’t post him. MLB seems to think that they can continually artificially depress the price of talent, without suffering any ill effects.

Yep. I'm hoping the same thing at this point. 

I wonder, how much would an MLB team accept to trade one of it's biggest stars to Japan? The Cubs got $950,000 for Bryan Fucking LaHair. How much would the Angels accept for Mike Trout? If you think it would be anything less than $200 million, you're dreaming. 

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  1. Edwin

    I just hate the way that fans/media seem to think that the NPB should only exist to supply MLB with cheap labor.

    The labor situation for pro sports always interests me. The best player in baseball over the past two years makes less than some middle relief pitchers. I wonder what would happen if mike trout flat out refused to play unless he got a new deal.

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  2. Lukas

    Edwin wrote:

    I wonder what would happen if mike trout flat out refused to play unless he got a new deal.

    He’d be despised by the fans and be turned into a villian by the media for being selfish.

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  3. Author
    dmick89

    @ Lukas:
    I’d especially like to see what happens between the young players and veterans. The veterans would hate them for taking their money if it worked out as I expect it would.

    The best way to fix all of this is to just make everyone a free agent at the end of the season. Trout would easily be the highest paid player that way.

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  4. Author
    dmick89

    I should add that I don’t hate the current system. I don’t like the 6-year service time thing. That’s a long time and usually takes a player past his prime. Considering that more and more teams are unwilling to give those contracts out to guys past that time, I’d like to see it reduced to 4 years.

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  5. GW

    @ dmick89:

    I would like to see the club control years be made negotiable on an individual basis, with a max of six years, or something like that. Probably not much would change, but the top level talent would have some leverage to reduce the number of years.

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  6. Author
    dmick89

    @ GW:
    I’d be fine with that. Your top draft prospects would negotiate the smallest number of years and those picked after the 1st or 2nd round would probably end up with 6. That’s OK.

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  7. GW

    @ dmick89:

    it would be interesting to see how it shakes out, as well. if you are kris bryant, would you rather have a $7 million bonus with 6 years of club control or $100k with four years? budget-conscious teams might offer $1k bonuses with 4 years of control throughout their draft. something like that.

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  8. Author
    dmick89

    @ GW:
    We’d also have to see them get rid of the silly rule about no MLB contracts for draft picks. That might be the dumbest thing they’ve ever done. I’d also like to see option years be negotiable.

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  9. Author
    dmick89

    @ SVB:

    “One of the things Nowinski brought up, we’re keeping track of pitch counts, can we keep track of how many guys are hit on the head?” Clark Vargas said, according to the newspaper, referring to Chris Nowinski, the co-founder and executive director at the Sports Legacy Institute.

    This.

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  10. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Jerry Jones: “I was firm for one night at that time and that doesn’t call for me having to be firm every morning I get up,” Jones said, via Carlos Mendez of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “So I was real firm then, so take that to the bank. Just take that to the bank. I’m not going to sit here and every time I see you guys, ask whether I’m firm or not. We can all play that game.”

    like you care is going to have a field day with that one

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  11. Nate

    @ SVB:

    freedoms just another word for nothing left to lose. nothing, and its nothing honey if it aint me.. feeling good was easy lord, when he sang the blues. feeling good was good enough for me, good enough for me and my casey mcgehee

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  12. Like You Care

    Mucker wrote:

    @ Like You Care:
    Ryno, what’s your background? Are you a coach or something?

    I coached a few of my kids’ teams, but that’s about it. I played CB in high school and QB in intramural football. Normally, I would never reference intramurals as experience, but it did give me a lot of perspective on playing QB (passing lanes, pressure, the importance of mechanics, etc.).

    Mucker wrote:

    Because you do know your shit and 90% of the time you are spot on.

    That percentage is generous.

    Mucker wrote:

    your analysis on football related stuff is pretty impressive.

    I appreciate that. I’ve always been really interested in the intricacies of sports (remember when I used to care about baseball, dmick?). Following the draft for so long taught me the most about positions and responsibilities because it forces you to key in on one person throughout a game. After a while, it becomes easy to see why certain people are successful.

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  13. Mucker

    You’re welcome. What’s most impressive to me is your knowledge of late round players. A lot of people can be knowledgeable about the first round and even second and third round picks but you know a lot about the late round guys. You should take Kiper’s job.

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  14. Like You Care

    As usual, this is based on current draft order and nfldraftscout rankings:

    1. HOU: Bridgewater, though I’m much less certain about it.
    2. ATL (via STL via WAS): Clowney.
    3. OAK: Derek Carr – Sooner or later, they’ll need a decent QB option.
    4. JAX: Johnny Manziel – This makes so much sense to me.
    5. CLE: Anthony Barr – QB-needy teams make better talent drop.
    6. STL (via ATL): Jake Matthews – Falls right into their lap.
    7. TB: Greg Robinson – Glennon deserves a shot.
    8. MIN: Sammy Watkins – I could play QB with the skill positions there.
    9. BUF: Cameron Erving
    10. TEN: Mike Evans
    18. GB: Stephon Tuitt – GB needs disruption up front to be more successful on defense.
    21. CHI: Defensive BPA – I think it’s that simple at this point. They need impact players on defense and it doesn’t really matter where. DLine would be preferable.
    27. SF: Kelvin Benjamin – This team’s biggest need at the moment is a deep-threat WR that will require safety help.

    The draft is still very fluid right now. Decisions from several players will shape its outlook over the next few weeks, but team needs seem pretty set now.

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  15. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    My hair’s not good enough.

    It’s really all about luck. There are so many variables that no one could really claim to be good at it.

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  16. SVB

    @ Nate:
    (dying laughing). But I bring Casey McGehee up not because
    I wish we hadn’t let him slip away near Salinas,
    or because I’m longing for a single yesterday,
    but because I’m looking at the pool of potential 3B candidates for the Cubs next season
    and he might be good enough for me (since no one else appears any better).

    Or perhaps this belabors the analogy.

    What’s the song about the guy or gal who surveys a lot of uninteresting options and then ambivalently picks one because he/she has nothing better to do that night?

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  17. SVB

    @ Like You Care:
    Regarding Taj Boyd getting knocked off his game….

    He seems to take a hit to me just fine. Physicallly he holds up. I don’t think that’s the issue.

    More of the issue is that when defenses frustrate him, he gets out of whack and can’t recover. That is even worse if the frustration includes an INT. When he makes his own mistakes, he can’t seem to shake them off and move on. He can live with a few failed series if they don’t include an INT, but after awhile he’ll start to force things and cause unforced errors.

    Clemson isn’t a good come-from-behind team because they don’t have a QB who can lead the charge, brush off the past, and wait for something to happen. Both losses are good examples, Clemson went down early, Boyd tried to force things and failed, which resulted in a downward spiral where his decision-making and accuracy got worse.

    Is that coachable?

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  18. Berselius

    That Packers-Cowboys game was pretty fun yesterday. Let’s pretend I didn’t find something better to do at halftime before wandering back over halfway through the third quarter.

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  19. Like You Care

    @ SVB:

    That’s a tough call. It can be fixed, but I’d have to look at these specific examples. Losing accuracy is typically attributed to mechanical changes. A good QB coach can fix that. If it’s a mental issue, that’ll come out in interviews (which we obviously won’t see).

    I don’t worry too much about stuff like that, as most of these guys are fixable from those standpoints. If it’s a physical issue (mechanics), that’s easily fixed. If it’s mental, change of scenery can be the remedy. To me, Boyd has shown everything he needs to be shaped into an NFL QB. It’s just a matter of how much prep he needs, imo.

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