Thanks to Smokestack for pointing us to the best possible title for this one. RC, BVS, and Berselius hang out to talk about whatever this team is right now and how we hope for some good fortune in 2023 with spring training around the corner. Among our topics:
- Recent additions Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini and their proposed usage
- Lineup tinkering
- How the defense might be a market inefficiency
- Those damn projections
- Trade speculation
We also told jokes about a corn cob dress but decided not to include it to protect the not-so-innocent.
Please rate and review us on Apple Podcasts and share us with your friends. Dmick or B, if you guys are amenable, I can send you an embed code for the Podbean player (it shows the last ten episodes) and you can test to see if it’ll work in OV’s sidebar. Thanks for listening!
You should be able to see the embedded player from both this WordPress and our Podbean embedded player for this episode below:
Comments
Stay to the end for surprise news
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nice job, guys. Sorry I couldn’t join in.
andcountingQuote Reply
Even if the Cardinals live up to their projections, I still don’t think they’ll avoid the wild card round, and there’s still a better chance of the Cubs winning the division than nabbing a wild card spot. The top of the NL is just too deep.
andcountingQuote Reply
And I’m going to go ahead and dub the Cubs 1-2 spots in the lineup Hoernsby. That’s just the way it is.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Ah, but don’t you believe them.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hmmm, in an effort to run with the portmanteau, I considered that the Hoernsby has the range…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That’s a good idea on embedding the recent podcasts on the sidebar, RC. Go ahead and send the code. Do you have my email? It’s my username @ gmail dot com.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d guess the Cubs win 72-77 games, but with a little luck (a lot of luck?) they could win in the high 80s and probably find themselves in the playoffs. As likely to lose 100 games as winning 90?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
We suggested that based on ZiPS and the fact that this team, as unbelievable as it seems, is probably better than last year, the baseline we should expect is .500 or so. The ZiPS WAR number is around 35 so that should put them around 84 wins.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I think this is going to be a more frustrating team to play than it will be an exciting one to watch.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
If you are a fan of great defense and pitching duels, this might be fun and exciting on that side of the ball.
If you expect them to score seven runs a game, then you’re going to be super disappointed (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It beats being an relaxing team to play that’s not exciting to watch at least (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
Extend him already
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
Message sent, m’lord
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did the Cubs just get Arson Judge’d?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I assume the dad in the intro song works from home.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
Or he’s on the night shift
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Weekends also exist, unless SK lives in a Capitalist paradise
berseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
More believable as a memory of days gone by tbf
SKQuote Reply
berselius,
Kid goes to school on weekends?
SKQuote Reply
SK,
He might also be one of the fans that Lee Elia ranted about (dying laughing)
I can ask Rich later as I think this is at least semi-autobiographical
Rice CubeQuote Reply
SK,
Sunday school if they’re God-fearing folk…
Mr. Mick has thrown the embeddable podcast player on the sidebar for anyone who is interested, it should list the last ten episodes, some of which are from years ago because this thing took quite the hiatus.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh duh we did actually talk about Rich’s song once upon a time when this was more regular, you can listen to that episode –> https://worldseriesdreaming.podbean.com/e/dreamcast-9-it-was-more-than-just-a-game/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
New critters mentioned at the end
Haircuts pending (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Very good doggos
Rice CubeQuote Reply
berselius,
Important pupdate
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Somewhere Ron Santo is smiling, laughing, and kicking his heels over the news that you got those two wonders and all the Mets got was Tommy Pham.
andcountingQuote Reply
berselius,
Oooh, I hope there isn’t anything wrong with left puppy’s eye
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Very cute dogs, b.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
It’s just a cherry eye from roughhousing with this litter mates – he’ll get it fixed when he gets, uh, fixed.
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Hey, doc, can you take a look at my eye? Yeah, just a little dust up with my bros, you know? You shoulda seen the other guy, (dying laughing).
Hey, doc, my eyes are up here, pal. (dying laughing). Why are you shaving me there? Seems a little extra for an eye doctor (dying laughing).
Dude, what the fuck? My eye! I’m here for you to take a look AT MY GODDAMN EYE! WHAT THE EVERLOVING ACTUAL FUCK, DOC?!?!1 NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooo……….
andcountingQuote Reply
This was kind of interesting! I guess the balanced schedule won’t hurt anyone too badly all told
https://www.mlb.com/news/how-2023-mlb-balanced-schedule-could-affect-playoff-races?partnerId=zh-20230120-807552-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20230120-807552-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=gKU4vFmYuFTVFKMd3iqxuSCxVYARiQg%2Fh5Pa5WTtzpJR8spdH9386Kq2X3BukDkt&bt_ts=1674226782669
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
I do not like the cone of shame…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think BVS was right –> https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/cubs-designate-anthony-kay-for-assignment.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
It hurts (according to their calculations) no one in the AL too badly. In the NL East, it hurts everyone, especially Atlanta for some reason. Outside of the NL East, it hurts the Cubs the worst? What it doesn’t show is how difficulty of schedule actually plays out in wins and losses. Atlanta’s opponent win percentage increases by .04 which means their average opponent would be ~6.5 wins better than what last year’s schedule would have given them. That’s the most extreme swing (for some reason Miami, Washington, and Atlanta’s strength of schedule increase ~twice as much as New York and Philly’s, which doesn’t make a ton of sense to me).
All in all, I’m not sure I trust the methodology they used here, and it’s definitely incomplete.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
My other question was whether Szymborski used the new schedule format in his 2023 ZiPS stuff but I probably missed that part because I skimmed and also poor reading comprehension (dying laughing)
I guess a drop of 6 wins would potentially take them out of a bye, but since the NLC also dropped and the Cardinals weren’t anywhere near where the top 2 were it probably evens out if we assume status quo, which obviously is not guaranteed, but also ATL is still good even if the Mets just spent a truckload of money and the Dodgers are too.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
There’s just so much missing from that article. Even the links (to a Google doc) don’t show the full numbers. The graph shows change in strength of schedule but nothing I can see actually ranking SoS or indicating how the range of difficulty may have narrowed (or widened, which would be weird if it happened). Since the point of balancing the schedule is to make strength of schedule as uniform as possible, what I’d like to know is how great the disparity was last season and how much we expect that to change. Did Atlanta’s change so much because they had the easiest schedule by far last year? Tell me, MLB.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I don’t have the answers to your very good questions, I think if we use ATL as the example then they’d play the NL West and NL Central the same amount so that isn’t the issue, I think it’s more exposure to the AL, particularly the AL East, that would cause that much of a shift. The NL East was obviously a very top-heavy division, at least last season, and I don’t think that’s going to change this coming season either, so that might mitigate some of the losses in their win column, which is a weird sentence as I type it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This. So the Cubs opponents’ SOS is 1% harder, but does it make the actual SOS go from . 490 to . 500 or . 560 to . 570? I assume the former but let’s see the numbers.
BVSQuote Reply
Hey guys, the links on the main page and the recent comments that would tkae you the thread instead take me to the podcast. When I manually deleted podcast from the url link, I finally here.
BVSQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Hunh. How about that! Even a year divisible by 4 occasionally doesn’t have a leap day.
Assume Rucker is the next to go if they bring the Sheriff back or sign Moore.
BVSQuote Reply
andcounting,
(dying laughing) (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing)ol
berseliusQuote Reply
Listening to the Athletic podcast, today’s the one with Keith Law and he’s kind of boring to listen to but he is talking a bit about the Cubs offseason so here are the salient points:
1. Law thinks as currently constructed (and he liked the pickups this offseason including Swanson and Mancini) the Cubs can be a contender for the division but not so much for the wild card due to the things we also said re: the other divisions in the league
2. Law doesn’t think Steele is actually a #2 starter, more back end but he’s definitely a big league starter
3. Law thinks even if the Cubs don’t make the playoffs they’ll likely get to the 84 win mark
4. Likes the prospects, including PCA and thinks there are more on the way
5. Lots of these one-ish year deals are good roll-of-the-dice moves, including Bellinger and Mancini
6. Re: Morel, has some value as a utility guy but will likely always have the strikeout issues, good guy to have on the bench but probably shouldn’t play every day, Cubs are in a position to keep him on the bench though
7. Still don’t have a frontline guy but Taillon and Stroman up top should still keep the rotation strong, pitching staff is at least deep, thinks Wesneski is decent, both he and DVR like Alzolay as a reliever, but need more guys to get lefties out
8. Thinks Cubs would want to see what the prospects do for another year at least before they start trading them away for impact talent
9. Thinks Cubs weren’t in the right spot to blow all the money on Verlander etc even though they did make a run on some of the other guys, but definitely heading in the right direction
If you guys want to listen it is in the final 10 minutes of their latest podcast episode.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dang, guess the Cubs won’t be getting Pablo Lopez
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/marlins-trade-pablo-lopez-twins-luis-arraez.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hmm, I guess “downtown” starts a couple blocks south of Madison if this is the case, but also I guess it works because Sox is 3500 south and Cubs is 3600 north
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Obviously a fun deal for Cutch and Pirates fans but boy is this a masterclass in PR spin
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Sorry, I didn’t see this. I’m not sure I understand. Are we talking the links the sidebar? The recent comments? And clicking on one takes you to the podcast (here on OV or elsewhere)? Sorry for the questions. Thanks.
dmick89Quote Reply
#TeamMeteor
https://wgntv.com/news/what-would-happen-if-a-space-rock-crashed-into-your-town-find-out-with-this-simulator/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
This is fascinating. If a giant asteroid hit my house, apparently it would cause a massive tsunami, among other things. This is unexpected as I live in Indiana, but I guess it’s due to my proximity to Lake Michigan? The waves would allegedly be over 2,000 feet high, which would be problematic, honestly.
andcountingQuote Reply
I was just dropping in to express my excitement over the late-January news leak that the Colorado Rockies are not expected to complete any more major moves. Earth-shaking stuff. I’ll keep my eyes open for the tsunami.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
There was supposed to be an earth-shattering kaboom!
-Marvin the Martian, probably
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
The original article was kind of amusing, I thought WGN was doing a bit but it turns out they’re just sharing a story from a St Louis station.
I did bomb several places in Florida just to see what would happen, rather cathartic.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
On Android mobile, when I click the title of the post it opens my podcast app without loading the page. Same if I click “54 comments” or whatever number, next to the post date or “recent comments” at bottom. To get to the thread, I either have to click-and-hold to “open in a new tab” or delete “podcast” between the //s in the url.
BVSQuote Reply
Start at the beginning to discover I’ve escaped the cave where I previously recorded from
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
I’ll try to look into the podcast settings. Anyone else with Android notice this? What about Windows (desktop)?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I use Android but didn’t see this at all, but I wonder if my settings are biased or whatever because I wrote the post and did the podcast setup so the cache and cookies etc already recognize me, he said as if he knew anything about computers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New shifty shit for your consideration –> http://www.obstructedview.net/the-shifting-narrative/
Rice CubeQuote Reply