In this episode Jeff and Myles discuss
- Montero's DFA and the state of the clubhouse.
- The Kris Bryant injury and revised win predictions.
- Should the Cubs sell a few pieces?
- Predicting Jake Arrieta's contract.
- Being surprised by the Cubs relatively okay home run hitting/preventing capabilities.
- Guess today's lineup, 2009 edition.
There are multiple references to a podcast that Sitrick and Berselius recorded on Sunday, which was scrapped due to technical problems.
Enjoy. Or don't. I can't tell you what to do.
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Comments
Ryno,
I don’t know. I think Rizzo The Rat mentioned awhile back that the last WS Champion to reach the playoffs was the Phillies so maybe there’s something to it. Then again, the champions since then have been the Giants (3 times), Yankees, Royals and I think the cardinals.
I don’t think they should deviate from their plan. I just think that selling has to be something the team considers, but I’m not talking about selling valuable assets like Bryant or Rizzo. I’m only talking about selling assets that won’t be around either after this season or much longer. Guys like Arrieta, Lackey, Zobrist (the Cubs just don’t need him at this point), Davis, Uehara and possibly Rondon and maybe some others I’m not thinking of. Off limits (unless the offer was ridiculous) would be Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, Almora, Baez, Lester and top prospects. That’s basically been their plan all along.
It just might be that they have to keep to that plan in a year they thought they’d be really good. Shit happens and I think with all the injuries it’s fairly easy to see why this team has underperformed.
Wade Davis is the big one. The Cubs, even if they reach the postseason, just aren’t all that good this year and a good closer can bring a whole in return. Whatever the Cubs can get for Davis is more valuable than the 15 or so innings he might pitch in the postseason if everything went smoothly. If things do go smoothly, it will probably be because the offense finally started to hit and the pitchers stopped giving up 425 foot fly balls. Davis will probably have only a small role in any success.
dmick89Quote Reply
I swear you guys wait until I comment to post new shit…
RynoQuote Reply
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/880418159542632449
Wow.
RynoQuote Reply
dmick89,
I think the last WS champion to make the playoffs was the 2012 Cardinals (as a Wild Card), which is pretty surprising. The Phillies were the last WS Champion to get back to the WS the following year (2008-9). There have been a couple other instances of the WS loser making the WS the following year, though (2014-15 Royals, 2010-11 Rangers).
I’m not sure what the “hangover effect” of winning the WS is, though I can’t imagine there’s a huge difference between winning and losing it in terms of next season performance since the teams would have played about the same number of games. But I could be totally missing something.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
That’s kind of what I think too. Seems like some regression should have been expected. Not this much, though, so use this opportunity (as you said) to sell off a few valuable chips you maybe didn’t think you’d want to sell. Like what the Yankees did last year (albeit without having a Chapman or Miller).
RynoQuote Reply
Perkins,
I think of it as a focus issue. After 2015, the Cubs as a team likely felt they were really close to winning it all and prepared without much distraction.
I imagine this offseason was MUCH different from the previous year’s, and that slight difference in preparation and focus can make a huge difference in performance.
RynoQuote Reply
In the Cubs’ case, I assume the pitching decline is related to both the volume and stress of the innings the past two years. The NLCS run in 2015 was preceded by an extremely tight race for the Central and the Wild Card. Arrieta threw a ton of innings, and Joe basically had to manage to win every game that year.
Even with the effort to manage workload last year, the extra (and presumably high stress) innings in the postseason likely added to the fatigue. Arrieta threw about 470 innings between 2015 and 2016 (including the postseasons), so it probably shouldn’t be surprising that he’s gassed.
What I’d be curious to see (and may research) is how much DL time players had on a season following a World Series championship. A lot of the Cubs’ offensive (and possibly defensive) woes appear to be related to injuries, though losing Fowler’s production has also hurt.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ryno,
That’s certainly fair. I imagine that winning a World Series with the Cubs is one of those “where do you go now?” moments for baseball people. To his credit, it seems like Heyward didn’t let that go to his head, but that’s probably because his 2016 was so awful.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Enjoyed this episode.
MylesQuote Reply
Perkins,
Exactly. Guys like Rizzo and Bryant contributed heavily to the Cubs winning the World Series. I mean, that’s kind of the ultimate in sports. As you said, Heyward was terrible and didn’t contribute as much, so I can see guys like him still having some motivation.
RynoQuote Reply
In other news, John Lackey leads the league in HR, but not the good kind like you want.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Was in the podcast!
MylesQuote Reply
I did not read every word. No dinner for me.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I can’t remember if the plugin has an automatic method to create a transcript of the podcast or not, but if it does I wouldn’t mind one. It’s not a big deal. I’m probably the only one who would prefer a transcript so if it’s too much work at all, ignore me.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’ll check it out tonight.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m watching you.
MylesQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron:
Jay (LF)
Happ (RF)
Rizzo
Contreras
Russell
Candelario
Almora
Baez
Lester
PerkinsQuote Reply
false
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I hope Lester can keep Turner off base.
dmick89Quote Reply
I just checked it out and it’s not possible. The transcript thing I saw with the plugin was a way to upload the transcript so people could download the written version.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think I said they were the last world champion team to win the division the next year. I also don’t believe there’s a causal relationship; things just happen.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant is saying he expects to avoid the DL. That would be pretty great.
I still agree that the Cubs should trade Davis.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I agree. I’m guessing it’s just that some of the teams to win the world series haven’t been all that impressive (Giants, Royals).
dmick89Quote Reply
If it’s anything like Heyward and Zobrist, Bryant will spend 10 days day to day and unavailable before the team puts him on the DL. The Cubs like to play shorthanded these days.
dmick89Quote Reply
Davis has been as effective as Chapman for as long as Miller has though. I don’t think that they can get what amounted to Starlin Castro and Gleyber Torres, but they might be able to come close if the Nats come calling.
If I were to choose the top five relievers in the league, Davis is in the group. Chapman, Miller, Davis, Jansen, and Kimbrel. Injury made him fall off last year at the deadline, but he looks good this year without any lingering issues. Even after his recent terrible outing that raised his ERA by almost a run but actually lowered his FIP a tick (dying laughing).
My brother-in-law who is a White Sox fan was raving about how good Davis was during the 2014 season, lamenting that nobody knew of him because he played in KC (in addition to having to see the Sox get dominated). He dominated the postseason twice. Seriously: 0.76 FIP in 2014 and 0.60 FIP in 2015 (25 combined innings). Make this deal with the Nationals already.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo! Contreras!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I have a good feeling about today. Cubs will win.
EdwinQuote Reply
I’ll take Victor Robles and Erick Fedde for Wade Davis, please.
MylesQuote Reply
Welp.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh, Lester is getting squeezed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I haven’t had a good feeling about this team since they couldn’t hit Josh Tomlin in the World Series.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
They scored six runs in seven innings against him in the WS (the sequencing was unfortunate, but that’s mostly random).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Seconded. But I don’t think the Nats would do it. Maybe Uehara could sweeten the deal. He has also been great for the past many years.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Contreras!
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
God damn it, they had him dead to rights there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
When this team scores in the top of the first it’s like piling dirt on top of the spot where you’re about to dig a hole.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I don’t like Lester getting squeezed like this.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
How bad can things get? raises a very dark question:
Suppose a team’s plane crashes in the middle of the season. No survivors. Whole MLB roster and coaching staff, gone. How long before another game is played in the league and by the team?
My guess is that it would be the same as after 9/11 for the league, but would probably be a couple weeks for the team. I can imagine a special draft for rule-5 eligible players for the misfortunate team and then the #1 overall and sandwich pick in addition to the normal draft picks plus extra cash in the foreign market.
The team would still have to pay out the contracts I believe, but I am guessing that they would not count against the luxury tax.
I wonder if the commissioner has planned for such a possibility.
ceruleanQuote Reply
You know what I’m sick of? Hits by opposing pitchers.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
uncle dave,
I disagree. It’s more like a Holiday Hole.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cubs lead the league in HBP Against.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Welp again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This *clap* team *clap* sucks
MylesQuote Reply
Maybe baseball should just come up with some designated survivors. Maybe they could call Kiefer.
In all seriousness, I’m guessing the team would call up the entire roster of the AAA team or maybe most of those guys and then some guys from AA. There would probably be a week off before play resumed and the team that lost all their players would probably be given the #1 overall pick for the next 3-5 seasons plus guaranteed picks in the top 10 after that. I’m guessing it would be a nice package. Some team wanting to rebuild quickly might try sabotaging the team plane.
dmick89Quote Reply
Seems close, probably. There might even be an expansion draft, where each team has to expose 3 or so contracts on the 40-man and that team could take them if they wanted.
MylesQuote Reply
Whew.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lester got out of that jam. Maybe this team isn’t that bad.
Just kidding.
MylesQuote Reply
Yeah, that would probably happen too. As far as immediate play goes, baseball kind of already has a built in system in case a disaster happens. They’d just call up guys from the minor leagues. The rookie league level may have to forfeit the season or something, but whatever.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s almost like the Cubs are in a contest with another team to see which offense can make outs as quickly as possible.
dmick89Quote Reply
I suspect that they’d change the waiver rules to move the team to the front of the line as well. You could fill up a (bad) 25-man roster pretty quickly if that was allowed, I think.
uncle daveQuote Reply
0 flyouts this game so far.
MylesQuote Reply
Gameday says Ross is getting seriously squeezed. Is this accurate?
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I wonder what the most ground ball outs recorded by a starting pitcher in one game is. Basically, what the Kerry Wood Game of Groundballs (or KWGOG) would be.
EdwinQuote Reply
uncle dave,
That would almost certainly happen. Good point.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
The umpire hasn’t called the low strike on either pitcher.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lester has a chance to save the season with one swing…
EdwinQuote Reply
dmick89,
You should see the spread they get on those charter flights, tho.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89,
This is the scenario I almost always start with when I play baseball sims, btw.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Are the Cubs odds of winning this game greater or less than 5%? I want to say it’s greater than, but I think the odds are really 0% so I’m going less than.
dmick89Quote Reply
Willson!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This is shaping up to be the Contreras game in both good and bad ways.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Lester doesn’t seem as bad at controlling the running game as people think.
EdwinQuote Reply
He’s pretty quick to the plate, and Willson (and Ross before) is quick to first and second. He gets a lot of press for having the yips to first, but he does well enough overall.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Edwin,
It was bad in 2015. He allowed 44 steals. But he’s gotten better, and I actually think Contreras is an improvement over Ross.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Perkins,
I’ve heard he does a good job mixing up his delivery, or just holding the ball, so runners don’t get a good jump.
EdwinQuote Reply
Man, the ump is not giving that low zone at all today.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
He gave Ross high and wide strikes this inning, though.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I do think something like this could happen, but with the team mandated to choose one of those three from every team. And the choices can’t all be on the DL. And from the 40-man as of the day of the disaster to prevent shenanigans—I’m lookin’ at you, Preller.
ceruleanQuote Reply
FFS.
uncle daveQuote Reply
This brings me back to 2014. Rizzo was the only good hitter in the Cubs lineup then, too.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Candelario!
PerkinsQuote Reply
Somehow it feels like Zagunis has been in the Cubs system for a decade.
berseliusQuote Reply
Now CJ is getting squeezed on the low strike.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Edwards got screwed.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maddux would have trouble with this strike zone. What hope does Edwards have?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Crap.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
God damnit.
PerkinsQuote Reply
That was predictable.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs will lose this one by two touchdowns.
dmick89Quote Reply
+1 on the transcript
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Good god.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Oh good. Another injury.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow. He’s staying in the game. Having a short bench sucks.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maybe next time we’ll skip the podcast and do a live chat (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
#o9r
uncle daveQuote Reply
What happened to the Nats bullpen being a dumpster fire?
berseliusQuote Reply
Jay!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
I stand corrected
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m sorry, we’re you saying something? (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Big if true (dying laughing).
uncle daveQuote Reply
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Nats failpen to the rescue!
PerkinsQuote Reply
(dying laughing) (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
I was going to offer to transcribe the podcasts, but then I remembered I really don’t want to.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs sure love playing catchers in left field.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
It’s like the fetish Dusty has with low OBP guys leading off.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Or the fabled all-2B lineup.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
I’m surprised he hasn’t traded Harper for a 2nd baseman. Maybe the Nats would take Zobrist.
dmick89Quote Reply
uncle dave,
I always associated that more with Hendry
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Combination of the two probably.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ll take a split on the road against the Nats any day.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
I just associate it with NEIFI!
uncle daveQuote Reply
Inverted M
berseliusQuote Reply
Jesus. I have no idea how the Cubs walked away with two wins in this series.
uncle daveQuote Reply
+1 LSA rec’d turn it green NAMBLA
berseliusQuote Reply
Davis is worth Robles and Fedde. Take note Mike Rizzo. The Cubs had to do it last year. This is your chance.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
You quoted it before I had a chance to fix my typo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hey guys, let’s generate some karma for the Reds to beat the Brewers before they lay down for the Cubs this weekend.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wade Davis showed the Nats exactly what they’re missibg. Here’s hoping the Cubs get them to pay far out the ass to acquire him.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Welp, that’s not gonna happen when Homer Bailey keeps giving up homers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I just bought a yearly subscription to Mlb.tv for $10 (flash sale). With all the blackout restrictions I have to put up with, I’d say that’s about the right price.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
His parents should have named him Nohomer Bailey smh
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
They must have thought he’d grow up to be a position player.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Parents, they’ll fuck you up.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That’s about how much Cubs season tickets are worth at this point.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
$6.50 after student discount (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
So, that pitch by Strop broke Trea Turner’s wrist. That sucks. (Candelario only had a contusion.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
$5.50 for elderly students.
dmick89Quote Reply
I know Strop can be a bit wild, but it seems rather unbelievable that he hit both Turner and Candelario with the same pitch.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They should allow students to watch for free and double the price for the elderly. That way, they get the good demographic while making money off the old folks who don’t buy anything.
Elderly students, though—I think they should make it free and then double the price.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Candelario was playing in.
dmick89Quote Reply
You’re not kidding. I’m taking a beating on resales this year. I’d expected demand to be through the roof, but the combination of colder than usual weather, increased prices, and an underperforming team have made it brutal.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I’d buy some off ya but my disposable income isn’t as disposable as I’d like.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Observation: Kershaw is good.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
My VPN works on my laptop to get the White Sox. I just saw Dustin Fowler destroy his knee in his first big league inning. You know how there are some movements that just aren’t right—like they are not human—he had that movement about him, like Gus Fring straightening his tie one last time.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Why didn’t they put him in CF? That was an ugly injury that wouldn’t have happened if he was playing his natural position.
dmick89Quote Reply
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
He has accomplished less at the MLB level than Adam Greenberg.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cubs seem to have a knack for putting players from other teams on the DL.
EdwinQuote Reply
That’s an insult to their best customers smh
berseliusQuote Reply
That’s The Cubs Way®
That’s Cub™
ceruleanQuote Reply
For the record, feline cubs are more popular in an image search than ursine cubs. This team should update its branding. Bears are so 20th century.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
It’s a way of life
berseliusQuote Reply
cerulean,
I would have guessed wolf cubs would be #1
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
You mean canidae cubs?
EdwinQuote Reply
berselius,
Are you secretly British or something?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Edwin,
The proper adjectival form is canine. Plebeian.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Jay RF
Happ 2B
Rizzo 1B
Contreras LF
Russell SS
Caratini C
Baez 3B
Almora CF
Montgomery SP
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
These are not the same Cubs from last year.
dmick89Quote Reply
That lineup doesn’t look great, but it should be enough to beat the Reds.
EdwinQuote Reply
dmick89,
That is a blatantly slanderous portrayal of the most eloquent and stately man to ever grace the White House. Luke Skywalker is now working for the evil empire.
Dare I quote His Eminence in Chief?
His hands, so strong and virile, are the only thing keeping this once great nation together.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I don’t love anything as much as Cubs hitters love double play balls.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Runner: I’m going with the pitch!
Batter: I’ll hit it right to second so they can turn two anyway!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Billy Hamilton is an idiot.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh. This might as well be an eight-run deficit for this lineup.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That’s Cub™
ceruleanQuote Reply
This lineup isn’t good enough to beat the worst team in AA.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m constantly amazed at how quickly Cubs fandom reverted to 2011-style pessimism.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That’s the third hit that looked playable.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Bad luck for Montgomery. BABIP gods feeling vengeful.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I know that everyone is injured, but Scott Feldman? Is this that Scott Feldman?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Cubs Waste Pack.
Carry your trash with you.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs should never have traded such an elite pitcher.
Who knows even who they got for him.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Question:
Is the UNFCCC an acronym?
Because unfuck the world is a pretty good mission statement.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Pessimism? I think it’s optimistic that this offense is good enough to beat the worst team in AA.
dmick89Quote Reply
Spellcheck was right. Fire Theo.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Schwarber hit two home runs today. And he only struck out once. Progress.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think there’s about a 75% chance the Cubs get swept by the fucking Reds.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bryant—–>lineup
That was unexpected.
PerkinsQuote Reply
should i “live” “blog” this game? that’s seems unlikely. what’s the over under on number of batters or innings i last?
SKQuote Reply
ha ha JD “Slugger” Gennet yeah good one.
SKQuote Reply
we’re aparently celebrating the 4th of july on the 1st of july in the river city
SKQuote Reply
I am drinking something called a Coalface Black IPA. I don’t drink much but it is tasty.
SKQuote Reply
I knew Jay was gonna stroke out on a high fastball
SKQuote Reply
If they didn’t have the “stars” trim I’d like both of these unis very much. Cubs’ looks like 70s road jerseys. Reds have a dark logo patch. is that black in the middle?
Nice hit Rizz
SKQuote Reply
and of course the unknown rookie shuts down the cubs in the first
SKQuote Reply
Of course Billy Hamilton leads off with a hit.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Eddie!!!!!
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Another man on.
Eddie 😐
ceruleanQuote Reply
That’s pretty much a guaranteed six shutout innings every time.
dmick89Quote Reply
I hate over patriotic stuff like stars all over the uniform for no reason
but I do like the american flag socks some of the guys are wearing
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
Cubs will win today 10–5. But don’t worry, they will lose tomorrow.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Jesus, Javy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was dumb.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
At least the Cubs are getting more creative with their double plays.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jay!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
JON JAY IS SO PATRIOTIC
SKQuote Reply
This is exciting. They scored at least one more run today than I was expecting.
dmick89Quote Reply
Willson!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Here’s hoping ace Butler can preserve this lead for Davis.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Javy and Almora are so bad against righties.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Can Davis pitch 6 innings?
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He came up as a starter!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This is fine. I wasn’t too attached to that lead, anyway.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I knew it wouldn’t last long.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think you have to throw strikes here, Eddie.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
jeez butler
SKQuote Reply
Of course. #ThatsCub
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
SKQuote Reply
(dying laughing) this team is awful.
dmick89Quote Reply
😐
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs should have given Davis a shot at a 6-inning save. Only chance they had.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bad news. I just found out that if the Cubs get swept by the Reds, they have to forfeit their World Series title. It seems a little unfair, but rules are rules.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s hard to come back from a deficit when there’s a relief pitcher leading off the inning, but whatever.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It seems like the lack of low strike calls has really hurt the Cubs recently.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ugh 😐
ceruleanQuote Reply
DP will do. Nice recovery Russell.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Nice play by Baez.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Those patriotic eye black stickers won’t do a damn bit of good reducing glare.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Schwarber hit two more home runs today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Any chance they can count for today’s Cubs game because I think that’s their only chance of winning.
dmick89Quote Reply
Happ might be the best player on this team.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sounds like schwarber has been seriously abusing some baseballs in iowa. Heyward is starting a rehab assignment. If those two come back strong, I can see this offense really start to gel in the second half.
That’s said, I still think I want to see the team be sellers. The pitching staff just looks totally lost. I think I’d be pretty pissed if they traded eloy for a rental pitcher, which I kind of think is what’s going to happen.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Hahaha I was just thinking the same thing. Totally pointless.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Wild Jake has arrived. Is a wild pitch coming?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Someone besides Happ drove in a run!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Helluva slide by Contreras.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Still was ruled out. Huh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Throw strikes, CJ.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Thank you.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
$M^{-1}$
berseliusQuote Reply
He’s obviously not the best player on the team, but I’m thrilled that he’s come up and played so well. I was worried the team would trade him at the deadline and now I don’t think there’s any chance of that. Now I’m more worried they’ll trade Eloy, which I don’t think is going to happen. It didn’t sound like Theo had any intention of trading for players based on how the team has played so far, which I was glad to hear.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
If Eloy is traded, it’ll be for a long term pitcher like Sonny Gray or someone else, probably from an AL team.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Who here had Davis as the only all star?
dmick89Quote Reply
DJ Lemahieu again? #FireTheo
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Anybody planning on seeing the total eclipse next month?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Of my heart?
MylesQuote Reply
Went to the South Bend Cubs game yesterday. It was a pretty fun time, rain delay notwithstanding.
MylesQuote Reply
Vimael Machin crushed a 3-R HR in the first inning and had another good AB, but he also had a really ugly looking AB. Also, Bo Bichette looked like the real deal for Lansing (Toronto’s affiliate). He’s going to play in the majors one day.
MylesQuote Reply
Bichette went 0-5 yesterday and was the most impressive hitter on the field (and Jason Heyward was rehabbing). Crushed the ball to left-center twice (good play by the CF both times), worked good counts, was also strong at SS.
MylesQuote Reply
Montero + Cash -> Toronto
Cash or PTBNL -> Cubes
MylesQuote Reply
Cubes. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Is this the first eclipse of your heart that others can safely view in the contiguous US without protection in forty years?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Am I wrong?
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
The Cubs trade Montero and cash for cash? Sounds like money laundering.
RynoQuote Reply
Myles,
They’re back to .500, so I guess that just makes them beveled hexahedra.
berseliusQuote Reply
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-americans-order-their-steak/
I feel like a stranger in my own country
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
37.5 percent of Americans should order hamburgers instead.
RynoQuote Reply
That’s what makes you feel like a stranger here!? (dying laughing)
However, I think the food and diet industrial complex are more responsible for this than the abundant lack of American taste, which is astonishing in tackiness—I mean, McMansions, Reality TV, and Donald Trump. The shitty quality of American meat combined with fear of food poisoning really pushes people to choose burnt and consistent (think Starbucks) over bloody and variable. I can’t really blame them—for that, at least.
I used to work in a restaurant where the owner was the cook, and the tirade he would go on when people would ask for well done. He didn’t want their business. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ryno,
Ground beef is a big part of the problem.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
So are Americans.
RynoQuote Reply
My South American friends would specify that norteamericanos are the problem.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Canadians say your rong.
RynoQuote Reply
Lurch says, “You rang.”
ceruleanQuote Reply
A caratini sounds like a Bloody Mary for people who don’t like tomatoes.
RynoQuote Reply
What does the fox say?
EdwinQuote Reply
If they trade for Archer before tomorrow’s game, they have a small chance of winning the game.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I didn’t read this article, but if it’s about preferred temperature, I’ve always assumed there are three main reasons why someone orders it the way they do. Older people like things more done. I think this is partly because of how they were raised (cook meats more thoroughly and a lot of older people think some pink means medium or less than). People also tend to order meats how their parents did. They’re first exposed to this when going out to dinner and so when they do it later in life, they tend to order it the same way. The third reason is that it’s more regional. I almost never got an order for a well done steak when I lived outside of the Midwest, but it wasn’t at all uncommon in this part of the country.
Anyway, the best piece of steak is no steak. I’m not so much a vegetarian these days, but steak makes me sick. Literally, it makes me sick. The sight of cooked red meat almost makes me want to throw up. The smell of it too. I think it’s as disgusting as rat shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
I like a good steak now and then, but I find it’s normally over priced. Pork Tenderloin is one of my favorite meats to grill. Versatile, tender, and costs a fraction of it’s beef equivalent.
EdwinQuote Reply
Good point from the article about buying a meat/cooking thermometer. Cook to temperature, not time. Having a solid instant read thermometer has really helped me step up my grilling/roasting/cooking game.
EdwinQuote Reply
Beef ribs are secretly the best meat imo and I’d get it over steak in 99% of circumstances.
MylesQuote Reply
Cubs apparently asked about Verlander. I guess he wouldn’t cost anything, but why? What’s the point?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The 2006 Cardinals.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
And apparently the Tigers want a big return without eating salary.
In other news, I would like billions of dollars and some Manhattan real estate.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Current status: making cole slaw.
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing) nice throw by Lester
dmick89Quote Reply
This Ian Happ kid might be okay
berseliusQuote Reply
Heyward! I missed the DL activation.
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubes lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
He has a ridiculous .313 ISO.
dmick89Quote Reply
I hate fireworks. They scare the shit out of dogs and they smell really bad.
dmick89Quote Reply
Gah, Jeff Garlin just crashed the radio booth.
berseliusQuote Reply
The starters love giving up home runs. Can’t help themselves.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m really tired of the Cubs leaving huge holes in the infield when there’s a pitcher in a bunt situation.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You’re out of here. That was the worst thing every done on this site.
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
This is where Javy strikes out trying to hit it 5000 feet.
dmick89Quote Reply
At least it’s nice having Zobrist and Heyward back.
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo got screwed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Sliding into first is dumb.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cmon Zo
berseliusQuote Reply
At least the Cubs offense has improved enough to give us teaser rallies. #progress
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubes win! Cubes win!
Too bad the Cubs lost.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Got one you recommend? I’ve been meaning to pick one up.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I heard that they were looking for a massive return because they weren’t expecting salary relief?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I’m not a fan of meat thermometers, but if you’re going to get one, just buy one of the cheaper ones and make sure it’s reading 32 degrees in a glass of ice water. As long as it’s doing that, you’re good to go and it’s a hell of a lot cheaper than some of the more expensive meat thermometers.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t conditionally tell me what to do.
berseliusQuote Reply
The one I use is from Weber. I think I got it for around $20. If you want the best, Thermapen is the brand to go with. Maverick DT-09GG is another good for just $20, and if you buy it on Amazon you can get it bundled with a really nice refrigerator magnet from Amazingribs.com which shows cooking temps for all types of meats. I highly recommend that Amazingribs site in general. They have a lot of great techniques, and reviews of grills, smokers, accessories, and kitchen gadgets.
EdwinQuote Reply
There’s a digital one at academy that works great. I leave the probe in the flat of a brisket, close my smoker and stick the reader to the door (there’s a magnet on it). I think it cost $20.
RynoQuote Reply
Instead of digital I prefer my thermometers to use goddamned steam.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
I disembowel a bird and read its entrails to get a sense of when my steaks are done.
berseliusQuote Reply
Haruspicy is a perfectly cromulent method of gauging temperature.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubes lose again.
dmick89Quote Reply
Lackey should probably stop giving up so many hits.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
it’s kind of amazing he hasn’t given up a couple home runs yet.
dmick89Quote Reply
Tight zone today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I confuse Blake Snell with Ian Snell.
EdwinQuote Reply
I don’t like Happ swinging at that 3-0 pitch.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This team sucks.
dmick89Quote Reply
Glad to see that whole clubhouse shakeup thing has worked out.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I don’t know if the runner is out, but that’s a hell of a tag either way.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
uncle dave,
One cannot expect to get away with criticizing a number four or five starter like Jake Arrieta.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not sure what is more infuriating, these line drives right at fielders or the warning track fly balls.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jay!!!!!!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Happ!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hard to believe they pitched to Happ.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m more surprised they left a sidewinding southpaw in to face all those righties.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It made some sense to pitch to Happ there, since he strikes out a lot.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Uehara!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I assumed they’d put Happ on, bring in a righty and face Almora. I’m not sure how important Happ as a runner is there. By the time he’d come around to score you’d already have a very small chance of coming back at 5-3. I’d have put Happ on and brought in a righty.
dmick89Quote Reply
As you said yesterday, Almora sucks against RHP.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Not good baserunning there, but at least they screwed the closer.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow, Dellin Betances is walking nearly a batter per inning.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
And somehow still has a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs —> Even Steven.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
#WeAreAverage
dmick89Quote Reply
I feel like I already know what the Cubs will do tomorrow.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
They’ll give up 3 in the first.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
They’ll get some baserunners via the base on balls, and then they’ll eliminate them with double plays.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The-answer-to-the-ultimate-question-of-life-the universe-and-everything wins and the-answer-to-the-ultimate-question-of-life-the universe-and-everything losses. Who knew the answer was a zero-sum game?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
EdwinQuote Reply
Lackey——>10 day DL
War Bear——>Cubs
PerkinsQuote Reply
Victor Caratini totally knew he would generate 300+ comments even on a fringe Cubs blog.
SKQuote Reply
Just on the off chance that you might ask, the answer is that answers are not the answer, in fact, more often than not, they’re the problem.
SKQuote Reply
Perkins,
Now that’s some creative use of the new 10-day DL.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
In all honesty, I wonder how many starting pitchers are going on the DL in the few days leading up to the All-Star break.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They should change the name from the Disabled List to the Reserve List. The DL could be just the 60-day with 40-man roster implications. Let teams place guys on the Reserve List regardless of “injury”.
ceruleanQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
CF Jay
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
2B Happ
LF Schwarber
C Contreras
RF Heyward
SS Baez
P Monty
berseliusQuote Reply
Don’t. Walk. Villar.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Welp.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nothing to worry about. Just the normal 1 run the Cubs spot each opposing team.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
It happens when you walk the speedy leadoff man.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The pitching has been considerably better than expected so far.
dmick89Quote Reply
If you were truly the optimist around here, you would have predicted only two runs.
berseliusQuote Reply
I feel like someone should have told the Cubs they’d probably have a better chance of winning games if they didn’t dig themselves so many holes early in the game. I thought this stuff was taught at AAA.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
Even the most optimistic person (me) can look pessimistic every once in awhile. It’s rare, but you’re a math guy. You know it’s possible.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs sure are trying to make this one tough on themselves.
EdwinQuote Reply
YOU IDIOT, GET BACK IN THERE AND SELL, SELL!
uncle daveQuote Reply
I just noticed Schwarber struck out in his first PA back, because of course.
EdwinQuote Reply
brb gonna go find some Sox fans and start a “CUBS SUCK” chant
uncle daveQuote Reply
Gameday thinks every pitch Leathersich throws is a changeup.
EdwinQuote Reply
This fucking game. Gah.
EdwinQuote Reply
We stinks.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
That’s incorrect. Every pitch he throws is a ball.
uncle daveQuote Reply
This outing by Leathersich is one of the worst RP outings I’ve seen in quite a while.
EdwinQuote Reply
He’s actually throwing to some decent locations per Gameday, but he’s getting no calls on any of his borderline pitches.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
That’s weird. He throws fairly hard.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
you moneyball assholes are blind to the fact that players always play better when they are in a hole. it’s called motivation/grit/scrappiness and it’s an excellent strategy.
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Welcome to the bigs, Jack Leathersich (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubs load the bases with no outs and Bryant and Rizzo coming up and only score one run.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Still wrong. Every pitch he throws scores a run.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Brewers have a better record than the Cubs.
The Brewers lead the Cubs by almost 5 games and it’s not even the all star break.
The Brewers are actually a better and more talented team than the Cubs.
I expected none of those sentences to be true this decade. Each of them is true and the Cubs won the World Series last year and were supposed to be the best team in the division for a long time.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s actually a good thing the Cubs have pretty much eliminated themselves this early. It’s reminiscent of all the other years I’ve been a fan and who doesn’t like reminiscing? It also gives me the rest of the summer off and I don’t have to worry at all about baseball until 2018 at the earliest.
dmick89Quote Reply
I guess it’s not a big deal that a RP gets a PA in a blowout like this, but it’s still strange to see.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
yeah, if you’re going to do it, do it in a game like this. Joe just likes letting relievers bat. I don’t get it.
dmick89Quote Reply
yeah but neither of these ^^^ things were supposed to be true either so it’s a wash
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
*stares across office at World Series Champions banner*
berseliusQuote Reply
Jon Jay got a swinging strike on a pitch under 60 mph.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I thought the Cubs would come back to win this one.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That’s probably the highlight of the year for this version of the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
At least we can pencil the Cubs in for a win tomorrow.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Is Butler starting or something? (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I know I’m not the math guy, or the optimist, but the Cubs have a clearly established W-L-W-L thing going on. I don’t want to be pattern guy though, I prefer not to be boxed in to one specific role.
EdwinQuote Reply
There’s no way the Cubs trade for Verlander, right? He’s owed too much money, he’s not good anymore, I don’t feel like I even need to list a third thing.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
That just means it’s time for a losing streak. Winning streaks and hitting with runners in scoring position is out of the question this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Well, I saw Dylan Cease. It was probably his worst outing of the year. He didn’t miss as many bats as I would have hoped in addition to pissing off the BABIP gods. But hey, if the Cubs aren’t disappointing this year, what are they?
ceruleanQuote Reply
I was thinking that these SB Cubs were a bit too much like their major league counterpart, but scoring an 8-spot in the sixth is decidedly un-Cubs-like. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Make that 10.
ceruleanQuote Reply
They have the third-highest winning percentage of any Cubs team this decade.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I have alternate facts that state otherwise.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Maybe they can top it after another five year rebuilding plan.
dmick89Quote Reply
Crazy that I got to see both Cease and Paulino. The later looked good, the former looked mediocre. In other words, the opposite of what they have done this year. Both pitchers got a ton of ground balls, but neither missed many bats…so, they will fit right in.
ceruleanQuote Reply
So that 10-spot they put up—not a single extra-base hit. Singles and walks and groundouts. Strange game.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs should totally sell Davis and maybe Almora Jr for Robles and Fedde and then some. Let Uehara and Edwards Jr and Strop finish games. 2015 was a surprise good year—this is a surprise bad year. Take the lumps and shore up the outfield defense and rotation for the future.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
The Royals need starting pitching so they should call them about Arrieta and/or Lackey.
dmick89Quote Reply
you’re now boxed in as the guy that prefers not to be boxed in to one specific role.
yes please. i would be fine with an every-other-year policy. considerably better than an every-108-years policy.
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
He’s the not a pattern guy and prefers not to be boxed into one role guy. He’s in two boxes and that seems life threatening.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think the Cubs will be good next year, but it’s going to require the team spend some money to fix their holes and by holes, I mean the majority of their rotation. They’d also be wise to deal Almora because you can’t really afford to have two guys who suck against righties (Baez and Almora).
dmick89Quote Reply
Are we still in the Dawn of the Victor Caratini era, or is it more like the Mid-Morning of the Victor Caratini era by now?
EdwinQuote Reply
Maybe my role is failed standup comedy guy.
EdwinQuote Reply
This new Spider-Man movie looks pretty good and I find Marvel’s movies about as boring as watching 50 episodes of CSI or spending a weekend watching rom-coms. Only thing is, I’m afraid they’ll reboot the franchise by the time I leave the theater. That and I lost interest in Spider-Man after the second one all the way back in the year 2004. Since then they completed the trilogy, rebooted it and made a couple movies and are rebooting it now. The pace of rebooting seems to be increasing so there’s a 50/50 chance if I go to it that I leave the theater to breaking news of Spider-Man being rebooted.
dmick89Quote Reply
Edwin,
Could go either way.
dmick89Quote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Zobrist
Bryant
Rizzo
Happ
Warm Beer
Heyward
Caratini
Russell
Butler
berseliusQuote Reply
With how little sleep I’ve had lately, it feels like dawn at every moment of the day.
berseliusQuote Reply
Life-threatening, like a magician is gonna saw him in half or something?
uncle daveQuote Reply
This is a relief. I was worried they got their butts kicked improperly, but that appears not to be the case.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Yeah, I don’t think there is any safe way to put a live human in two boxes. I think I’d rather they just put me in one.
dmick89Quote Reply
you are dangerously close to being in three boxes now.
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
the dawn of the victor caratini era apparently coincides with the dawn of the john jay cy young campaign
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
This is a waste of a replay review.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I wonder if La Stella is taking the ninth today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Just put the 2 on the board and be done with it already.
uncle daveQuote Reply
KenricoPallazzo,
The only thing worse than being in three boxes is being in four. He’s playing a dangerous game.
dmick89Quote Reply
That was literally right down the middle.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jesus.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I'm looking forward to seeing how the Cubs pull off another double play here.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Just missed!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubes lose
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
We’ve opted for the slower, dumber zero this time.
uncle daveQuote Reply
What if they were little boxes? Little boxes on the hillside, little boxes made of ticky tacky?
EdwinQuote Reply
Facepalm.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Goddamn you, that is going to be stuck in my head all weekend now.
berseliusQuote Reply
Whew!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Edwin,
A green one and a pink one?
dmick89Quote Reply
No runs in the first two innings? Looks like the Cubs have a new Ace, my frents.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
It’s stuck in my head all the time. No song is in my head more than that one. I’ve surrendered to it.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I for one welcome our new TV show theme song overlords.
berseliusQuote Reply
Lo(dying laughing)o(dying laughing)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Pirates are testing a theory. How many errors can they make before the Cubs score?
dmick89Quote Reply
If they Cubes it up here, these two teams might as well go for the combined LOB record (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
This is once of the uglier minor league games I’ve seen.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
If it’s still 0-0 after nine innings, they should break the tie with a dizzy bat race.
berseliusQuote Reply
Fuck it, I’m rooting for them to leave guys on base at this point.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89,
Like the old joke where the Cardinals walk off the field and the Cubs score two batters later, right?
uncle daveQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
There it is. Ron Santo wouldn’t deserve to watch this, but we deserve hearing him call it.
uncle daveQuote Reply
This reminds me of one of the mailbag questions on EW this week – if you had a closer who had a RA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 3.00, how long would he last in the role?
berseliusQuote Reply
I feel like we’re heading towards having a position player pitch in a 0-0 game.
uncle daveQuote Reply
AddyTag!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
OK, so we know the Cubs aren’t good, but it might be time to consider the possibility that they could be bad. I had just assumed for the last few weeks they were about average, but I’m starting to think I gave them too much credit.
dmick89Quote Reply
That’s a reliever Joe would pinch hit for.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think Williams and Butler made a pre-game bet. First to 80 pitches wins. Butler is going to have to kick it up a notch if he wants a free dinner tonight.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
(dying laughing)
uncle daveQuote Reply
I’m surprised Schwarber wasn’t left in Iowa longer.
dmick89Quote Reply
This team is terrible.
dmick89Quote Reply
Truly exploring the boundaries of what’s possible this afternoon.
uncle daveQuote Reply
What the hell was that?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
i don’t know, how long did it take Good Carlos Marmol (RA 0.00, WHIP 3.00) to turn into Bad Carlos Marmol (RA 214.0, WHIP 3.00)?
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I keep checking for score updates, and there are no runs. What is going on?
EdwinQuote Reply
KenricoPallazzo,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Edwin,
The Pirates are having a bad offensive day. Usual shit for the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m seriously starting to think that Montero was holding this team together.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bad pitching and defense beat bad hitting.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Butler is trying to see how much success he can have if he never throws a strike. So far, not much.
dmick89Quote Reply
I know that was a good pitch to hit, but I’m not sure why Mercer didn’t just take. I’d have had the take on for the next two pitches.
dmick89Quote Reply
hey you can’t argue with the box score
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Jaso is so bad in left.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I mean, what kind of team puts an ex-catcher in left field? Smdh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cazart! I walk away from my desk for like a minute…
uncle daveQuote Reply
Productive WAG alert!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Ugh. More terrible defense.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’m happy for the Cubs win. Guess they’ll lose tomorrow though.
EdwinQuote Reply
Given Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, we don’t know which of the next two games they will lose, but we do know that they will lose one of them with a high degree of certainty.
#misapplicationOfQuantumMechanics
ceruleanQuote Reply
The stupid Brewers are doing it again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I don’t think they’re going away. If the Cubs end up winning the division, they’ll have to play above their talent level for an extended period.
dmick89Quote Reply
What if this is the Brewer’s version of 2015? Looking at their roster, it’s not entirely impossible that the Brewers really are this good. Shaw, Thames, Santana, and Braun are all solid hitters. Arcia and Broxton aren’t great hitters but both play solid enough defense to be valuable. Some of their bench players are likely over performing, but they also have some nice young prospects that could come up and give the team a boost. Pitching is obviously the team’s biggest hurdle, but Jimmy Nelson has actually been pitching like an ace, and before his injury Chase Anderson was doing well. Josh Hader looks like an above average future MLB starter and could be an impact bullpen arm this year. Brewers have the farm system to add a piece at the deadline too.
Also, while I don’t normally subscribed much to the mental state of a team’s lockerroom, the Brewers have to be feeling pretty great right now. In a season where nobody expected them to compete, they’re sitting in first, and just crushed the Cubs at home and went into Yankee Stadium and took a game against the Yankees on the road.
I’m more worried now than I was a couple weeks ago.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Another advantage the Brewers will have is that they’re likely to make improvements by the end of the month. They have the farm system to add an impact player and then some. Theo has pretty much said the Cubs only improvements will come from within the clubhouse (them figuring their shit out). So the Brewers team that leads the Cubs by almost 5 games is going to get better while the Cubs won’t.
What if the Brewers really are this good? I think they’re pretty close and by the end of the month will be even better than they’ve played so far. What if the Cubs really are this average? I think in terms of talent level they should probably be about where the Brewers are. It’s a huge step down from the last couple seasons and they don’t have the greatest farm system. Whatever talent they have down there they kind of need to keep. The Brewers are going to be good and cheap and the Cubs are going to have to spend a lot of money to keep pace. Reminds me of the Cubs after 2008 (this year being similar to 2009). The years after 2009 did not go well.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I was just thinking this season felt a lot like that 2009 season. High expectations going into the year, and then everyone shit the bed.
On paper I still like the Cubs over the Brewers, but at this point the Brewers are playing well enough that with a little luck and a few trades they could reach 90 wins. That spells trouble for the Cubs.
EdwinQuote Reply
The other wildcard factor is the Cardinals. They’re 6.5 back in the division, but they might look at Wainwright and Molina and decide that they really only have this year and 2018 with that window. They could try and go after someone like Josh Donaldson, or some other player to try and give them a decent shot for 2017 and 2018. It’d be another decent team for the Cubs to worry about.
EdwinQuote Reply
if, come november/december, i look back on a season where:
– the cubs gave up no prospects
– the cubs in fact gained a decent prospect or two by traading wade davis/others
– the cubs finish at .500, thus missing the playoffs by 4 games
– the cubs FO has stated the ability/desire to go out and acquire off-season talent
…then i will consider the sum of the 2016/2017 seasons to have been more wildly successful than i ever thought possible for this franchise and be extremely optimistic for the 2018 team.
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
disagree. i vaguely recall 2009 being such a colossal letdown because it was obvious that there were some dark days ahead and thus there was an added sense of dread/hysteria when the team played below expectations. maybe i’m just still feeling zen from the WS title, but i do not feel that dread at all with this team (or maybe more importantly this FO).
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
KenricoPallazzo,
There are definitely some differences. That team was much older, but the Cubs could still have continued to contend by spending money. This group’s core is younger, but they need more talent around them as we’ve seen from this season and that means more money will need to be spent. If the Cubs want to continue to contend after this year while making no trades for prospects the payroll is going to get higher and higher from this point forward. I’d much rather be where this team is than where the 2009 team was, but there are definitely some similarities, especially financially.
dmick89Quote Reply
The average age of the Cubs hitters in 2008/2009 was 30. The average age of Cubs hitters in 2016/2017 is 27.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Edwin,
The Cardinals also always seem to end up doing better than everyone expects so I still think they’ll get hot and finish at least at .500 or so. If, as you say, they go for it this year, they can definitely catch the Brewers and the Cubs job for this year and next got a lot harder.
dmick89Quote Reply
Knebel just gave up a walk off 3 run home run.
dmick89Quote Reply
Brewers lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think they might be the youngest team in baseball, still.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
I’ll still take the Cubs’ second-half records in recent years.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Maybe the youngest offense, but I’m not sure that’s true either. Their pitching is not young.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs rank in average team age is 21. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rosters/_/sort/average_age/order/true
dmick89Quote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Zobrist
Bryant
Rizzo
Happ
Warm Beer
Contreras
Heyward
Baez
Arrieta
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Jake’s stuff looked pretty good that inning.
berseliusQuote Reply
Damn, Cutch.
berseliusQuote Reply
Throw strikes.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Pretty sure that is just the average age of the roster and so not weighted by innings played. The older players have not gotten a lot of playing time.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’m sure that would help out, but the point is that this team is older than most people have acknowledged. They were young a couple years ago, but I think if them as more about average this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Of course Nova struck out Zobrist.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jesus Christ, Jake.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Happ! Schwarber!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Warm beer!
berseliusQuote Reply
Man, do I love the classic MLB clips they sometimes show during commercial breaks on MLB.tv
berseliusQuote Reply
Nova strikes out the side. Of course.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Sigh. I hate Josh Bell so much.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Sigh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Terrible throw by Javy there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
There is speculation on the radio broadcast that Chad Kuhl is starting this game instead of Taillon.
berselius is too lazy to write a new postQuote Reply
So Kuhl
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Still relevant.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think maybe I hate baseball.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It saddens me that Jon Lester has become bad at sports.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Oy vey.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing), this is just comical at this point
berselius is too lazy to write a new postQuote Reply
Jesus Christ.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Only four runs were earned though!! (dying laughing)
berselius is too lazy to write a new postQuote Reply
berselius is too lazy to write a new post,
Most came with two outs after the Bryant error.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That first inning was a play about pieces of feces
berselius is too lazy to write a new postQuote Reply
This looks like a good game I’ll go ahead and skip.
dmick89Quote Reply
Krustywhatthehellwasthat.gif
PerkinsQuote Reply
We got ourselves a game here fellas!!!!!
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Umm, wtf is going on? Gameday thinks the Cubs gave up 10 runs in the first
EdwinQuote Reply
You just cannot hit into double plays when you’re down by nine runs.
PerkinsQuote Reply
10 runs in the first.
That’s binary, right?
(Yes. The two options are BAD and AWFUL.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Cubs should trade him so they could get some value from him. He obviously hasn’t worked out.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That sounds like a challenge that this team is up to taking on.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Down by 11 now, so it’s all good.
To be a fly on the wall in the clubhouse after today’s game.
PerkinsQuote Reply
For a moment I was thinking that you wouldn’t last for very long—but then I realized that this team hasn’t been that great batting flies.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Perkins,
Theo said the other day that whatever improvements this team gets at the deadline are going to come from within the clubhouse. Maybe he meant they’ll be more motivated, but he also could have meant that there’s a lot of shit going on in the clubhouse. I’m guessing it’s a combination of the two.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Winning creates team chemistry. So yes.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Long time lurker, first time poster. Love this site. Just came to complain about one of your favorite topics – Maddon letting the pitcher hit with the bases loaded down 11 runs. He’s got all week to rest the pen, why not give Javy a crack at the lefty there. Instead a double play ends the inning and the Cubs don’t score.
North Side PatQuote Reply
Dear Theo,
Please sell Wade Davis to the Nationals. He’s obviously a clubhouse cancer.
Sincerely,
There’s Always Next Year
ceruleanQuote Reply
North Side Pat,
Yeah, the Cubs probably aren’t winning this one, but their best chance to make this a game was right there. Out of all the time Joe has let the pitcher hit, that’s probably one of the least costly times since even a grand slam means they’re still down 7, but it’s still stupid. I also get the impression that even they were down 7 he probably does the same thing even though a grand slam makes it a 3 run game. Joe does some things really well, but he also does a lot of things poorly.
dmick89Quote Reply
North Side Pat,
He didn’t want to put anybody in a position that they could succeed. It sets the wrong precedent.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What were the odds at the start of the season that the team Davis was traded from would be in a better shot to reach the postseason?
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
The Cubes Way
dmick89Quote Reply
-15%, I believe.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Following the breaking of a 108 year championship drought with a colossal bed shitting…
That’s Cub.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
What really sucks is that it’s impossible for this awful season to not take away something from how awesome last year was. It’s basically the same exact team. One that was apparently a lot luckier than I thought. I was thinking they were probably a legit 95-97 win team a year ago (true talent level), but based on performance this year I’ve dropped that to about 92-93.
They still won the WS and that’s all that matters, but it would be a lot more enjoyable if that, along with 2015 was the start of being among the best for many years.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I know there’s basically no chance even if they do score, if just pissed me off. Unfortunately I’m at the game today. Now it feels like a Spring Training game. Anyway, love the site and I’m coming around to the “the Cubs should sell” way of thinking. I think today’s top of the first convinced me that this team isn’t going anywhere.
North Side PatQuote Reply
what the fuck is everyone so negative about? Doesn’t anyone remember last year? They had a terrible stretch going into ASB and they ended up winning the WS. This year, they have a super terrible stretch going into the ASB, therefore they will end up winning the Super WS (which is so cool that it hasnt even been invented yet). Have a little faith.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I could see trading Russell or Baez, but I’d rather not do either and I’m not particularly high on either of them. Anything else would be dumb.
dmick89Quote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
The last two years, the Cubs have won 50 games after the break. It’s possible that happens again and they finish 93–69. But this malaise makes that all the more unlikely. And the homers given up—it’s like the Cubs had been using the non-juiced balls when pitching in 2015–2016, but this year, they have switched it with the offense.
So sell Davis and Uehara. They are good, and unlike mediocre teams, playoff teams need bullpen help. Trade some prospects for a controlled starting pitcher. Give some younger pitchers a shot at the rotation when rosters expand. If they win 50, it’ll have been a year earlier than expected.
Also, recognize that God is punishing the Ricketts for their support of Donald Trump—and punishing the rest of us for apostasy.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Caratini, Almora, Candelario. Who else?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Remember when the Cubs were 6–3? Those were good good times.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
What are those guys worth? I don’t see Candelario or Caratini being worth much at all. The wild card is Almora. Maybe some team thinks he’s an every day player. It’s worth a shot since I think he’s a well below average player if he plays every day. I wouldn’t mind having him around as a defensive replacement, but that’s about it. I doubt he has much value, but it’s worth looking into. I don’t think the Cubs get a cost-controlled starter for a young position player unless it’s Russell or maybe Baez or Schwarber. Bryant and Rizzo aren’t going anywhere (nor should they be) and the rest of the young talent hasn’t played like you’d hope this year. I also don’t see Contreras going anywhere.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d rather the Cubs sell some pieces they don’t need and they won’t really need if they’re going to get really hot and win a whole lot anyway. The Yankees traded Miller and Chapman last year and were just as good after that. If the Cubs starters wake up and the offense performs better, they can still win without Uehara and Davis. They could also still win without Lackey. They might need Arrieta, but only if they think he rebounds and it’s been a long ass time since he’s been any good (more than a year).
dmick89Quote Reply
Whelp, we’re boned.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Yeah, I think the Cubs have a better chance of finishing in 4th in the division than they do 1st.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I don’t see it as diminishing anything from the last two years, even though it’s frustrating and infuriating. To me, this is the “glass half full” version of 2009. Especially since the Cubs sealed the deal last year instead of crashing in the NLDS.
They’ve had nontrivial injuries to Zobrist, Heyward, Russell, and Hendricks, and the Brett Anderson experiment was a predictable and spectacular failure. Rondon, if not injured, has been a shell of himself since his injury last year.
It was also probably unreasonable to expect Schwarber to adjust as quickly or as well as Bryant did once the league figured him out. Even Rizzo struggled in 2013. It happens. I’m still bullish on Schwarber in the long term, and the Cubs’ middle of the order is both younger and better than was the case in 2008-9.
While I’m expecting a trade for Sonny Gray, I am disappointed the front office didn’t do more to address the rotation in the offseason. I don’t think anyone predicted that both Lackey and Arrieta would fall off a cliff so dramatically, but the rotation should have been a concern with all the innings the starters logged in 2015-16 (and good fortune with health).
Overall, I can’t get too pissed off, and I’m expecting better days ahead. Probably not in 2017, though. Sell off Davis and Uehara, and maybe one of Lackey and Arrieta. Get Sonny Gray. Maybe make the postseason anyway, but maybe not. Focus on the process and getting healthy. Maybe the Cubs will be the new even year magic team. Maybe not. It could go either way.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
By cost-controlled, I mean under contract for the next few years. Maybe Verlander or Samardzija or someone else (I had hoped Greinke would be available) whose contract is a potential albatross that this team could absorb. I am less fond of this if the Cubs were going to push for Harper. (And if that is the case, put Heyward in center.)
The Cubs also have depth below AAA that teams may want—not just those three I named—that may land a really good and cheap starter: Cease and Jimenez come to mind, but Clifton and Albertos and others may be worth considering. I am not saying to sell the farm, but they can get the likes of Gray or even Archer using only minor leaguers if they really wanted to. I don’t like what it would take, but they could.
I would try to trade Davis, Uehara, Jay, Almora, and Candelario. The first three to the Nats for Robles and Fedde. Trade the other two plus some of Zagunis or Clifton or de la Cruz or someone else—maybe even Albertos or Cease—to Oakland for Gray and Doolittle. There is risk there, but the payroll implications are low, which leaves the door open to go after Harper.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I don't think it's diminished the accomplishments of the individual seasons, but my perception of how good those teams were has changed. Consider a player who has hit 40 home runs in three consecutive seasons. We might say his true talent in home runs for the following year is 40. We'd have to do some regression and all that, but thereabouts. Now let's say the player, healthy, hits 10 home runs each of the next few seasons. Now we can go back and figure out what his true talent in home runs was. It was not 40. We now have additional information. It was probably something like 25. That's what I'm talking about. The true talent of a player is really something like the previous three seasons plus the following three seasons. Considering that the Cubs roster is pretty much the same, those two teams weren't quite as good as I thought they were. They still won the world series and all that. Kris Bryant still won the MVP. Nothing is going to change how awesome the seasons were, but maybe the Cubs, as a team, weren't quite as good as we thought they were. They were still great teams in both of those seasons, but not as great as I thought. That's what disappoints me.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think they should have re-signed Fowler too. The money was probably more than he’s worth, but they just won the World Series and I’m just not sure how they thought Almora was going to work out on an every day basis.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
If they re-signed Fowler, I would have wanted to trade Almora. His lack of emergence is instructive in hindsight, but only in hindsight. Defense doesn’t slump, they say, but he looks slower than last year and no metrics like him in the field. It’s weird though not entirely unexpected that he wouldn’t perform, however, I like that they have given him the opportunity to fail.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
It’s not as big a deal if several others were performing as expected so it’s unfair to lay any blame on him. That said, I never saw the upside that some of the scouts did. I figured defensive replacement/fourth outfielder was his future. I haven’t looked lately, but he was walking way more than I ever expected so I guess there’s that.
dmick89Quote Reply
Crazy that Ian Happ has been such a revelation yet this team is sub-.500—though the fact that he has already graduated from prospect lists says something about the team’s underperformance. I still see .500 as the floor for these Cubs, even if they sell Davis and Uehara.
(Note to self: Remember to submit your comment after writing it.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
The high-floor of his defense is what I wanted to see. His bat right now is good for a Heyward-type glove. I still think that he could be a valuable everyday player, but on a rebuilding team where he can get an opportunity to find his groove, if he has one. His value to the club is probably more as a trade asset than a player, though that alone diminishes his value in a trade.
Also, I don’t blame Almora for his middling bat. I did not expect a team-wide slump.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
At least in the case of the starting pitchers we have objective evidence (i.e., velocity readings) that their talent has declined. I think some of the offensive underperformance may be due to injury as well (Zobrist, perhaps Russell).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That said, it sure is a shame that Heyward probably isn’t the hitter we thought we were getting a year and a half ago (though I still hold out hope that he’s better than we’ve seen).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(I also think it’s weir that Heyward has been mostly used as a corner outfielder when he’s their best fielder, but whatever.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
*weird
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Adbert Alzolay struck out 10 in 5 innings of work, in AA. The Cubs might actually have a legit pitching prospect at a decent level. Holy shit.
EdwinQuote Reply
When I wrote that article about selling, I would never have envisioned selling someone like Russell or Baez. It only makes sense to trade people who aren’t going to be on the 2018 Cubs + Ben Zobrist (salary and declining skillset, perhaps even rapidly declining).
mylesQuote Reply
He and Oscar De La Cruz are basically the entire second division of Cubs’ pitching prospects that I’m excited about. I’d like to hold on those two + Cease and anyone else can just be sweetener in any deal the Cubs make for pitching in the future.
mylesQuote Reply
myles,
I’d prefer to keep both, but if one of them can get the Cubs a front line starter, it’s kind of nice that they have two major league shortstops on their roster. I wouldn’t trade either without the Cubs clearly winning the trade, but the emergence of Happ makes me more than willing to trade one of them for the right price. Happ isn’t as good as he’s played, but I think he’s probably the best 2nd baseman on the team. I wouldn’t mind moving Baez to CF.
dmick89Quote Reply
They aren’t immovable (no one is), but I wouldn’t be looking to move either. If DET says “we can’t give you Fulmer without getting Russell back” I obviously will drive Russell to the airport, assuming he isn’t in one of his hurty moods.
mylesQuote Reply
is trevor clifton no longer someone that i should be pinning all of my hopes and dreams onto? i thought he had been putting up some pretty great numbers but i admittedly haven’t been paying much attention lately.
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Clifton hasn’t been as good at AA. His K-rate fell and his BB-rate rose and his miniscule HR/FB-rate doubled to still be good, but he is a flyball pitcher. There are very few Max Scherzers who are so good they can still have success as a flyball pitcher with this bouncy, seamless ball they call juiced. Most have gone the way of the Lackey.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think we need a new thread titled ALL IS LOST—no content necessary—we all know what we did.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Edwin,
He has really turned it on. But he is also a flyball pitching prospect waiting to break or become ineffective.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Seeing the successes of both Hendricks and Uehara, low-velo pitchers who are effective at inducing weak contact, I am intrigued by Tseng. But not enough to get my hopes up.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I see Clifton as a bullpen guy at this point, but you could make the case that he belongs in that group as well (and they could all end up there).
mylesQuote Reply
dmick89,
Happ has been good in center. Baez is too valuable in the infield.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I agree that he’s more valuable in the infield, but I don’t see Baez as an everyday player. I guess there could be some sort of platoon where Happ plays CF when Baez starts against the lefties, but I don’t see that happening. Baez has a career 72 wRC+ against righties with a 3.5% walk rate and a 30% strikeout rate. He’s useless against RHP, great defense or not.
dmick89Quote Reply
Baez’s wRC+ against righties this year is 77.
dmick89Quote Reply
Agreed. And he’s nothing particularly special against LHP either. Not forgetting either the increasing groundball lean with his batted ball profile across the board. High strikeouts, low walks, a few too many groundballs when he does make contact. Ick. The defense is snazzy, but I’d rather get somebody out there who can hit the ball in the air a bit. And I’m getting a little tired waiting on Baez to become this player he’s never been and probably never will be.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Good point. 104 wRC+ this year and 112 in his career. Better than average, but overall he’s pretty bad at hitting.
dmick89Quote Reply
Aaron Judge is strong.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Aaron Judge is okay.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Aaron Judge is weak.
EdwinQuote Reply
Aaron Judge is a rock.
EdwinQuote Reply
Aaron Judge is an Island.
EdwinQuote Reply
I don’t even know why you’re all talking about Aaron Judge. Guy can’t even slug .700.
dmick89Quote Reply
So what’s best case scenario for this team in the second half? Pitching staff about a run per 9 better would be my guess. I expect they’ll hit better with RISP just because there’s no reason they wouldn’t. Is that enough to make up the ground they need to in order to win the division?
Or is best case scenario more like the Brewers collapsing? I’d say it’s slightly better pitching and the Brewers go back to being the Brewers.
dmick89Quote Reply
yeah but his r+rbi is good
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
John Lackey has a really high R + RBI total too.
mylesQuote Reply
Maybe the Yankees would be interested in a Lackey/Judge swap.
dmick89Quote Reply
So Aaron Judge is very strong. And the ball might be very juiced.
Also, one hopes that new content will grace this discredited blog soon so I don’t have to scroll through 500 comments (dying laughing)
Rice in limboQuote Reply
As I’m working from home today, I’m watching World Series game 7 again, and I’m once again infuriated by the bad ball/strike calls in the 5th and Joe’s bullpen management.
I really hope the Cubs win this game. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Here’s the current issue I see for the Cubs. Right now they’re 43-45, with 74 games remaining. Even if you thought that going into the season they were a 98 win team, and that in the 2nd half they’ll play like a 98 win team, that would leave them at maybe 88 wins total. To match that the Brewers would need to play at an 86 win season pace.
Let’s assume the Cubs are a true talent 94 win team. You could even argue that would be high, but they certainly have the ability to play like a 94 win team for a half. If they play like a 94 win team, they end up with 86 wins. To match that, the Brewers need to play at a .500 clip.
Finally, let’s say you’re pessamistic, and think that the Cubs are only a true talent 90 win team. If they play like a 90 win team the rest of the way, they end up with about 84 wins. To match that the Brewers need to play at a 78 win pace.
Anything can happen over the next 70 games, but the Brewers can put a lot of pressure on the Cubs simply by being an average team. If the Brewers pull off some nice trades and play like an above average team, the Cubs have little shot at the division.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Their best shot is that the Brewers collapse IMO. Even then I think it’s still going to be a fight between all of the division minus the Reds.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I still think the Cubs wind up taking the division. But it’s gotten a lot tougher.
EdwinQuote Reply
Sounds like it could go either way.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I also think that. I do think it comes down to the final week, though, and I think 85-88 wins is about the best we can expect.
The Cubs have a slightly easier strength of schedule in the second half (MIL plays WAS 6 times and LAD 3 times, though the Cubs have AZ 6 times and WAS 3 times – they both play PIT, CIN, and STL a lot, and the Cubs get four against CWS).
They also probably still have a higher true talent level than the Brewers, and Chase Anderson is out with an oblique strain at the moment. The Cubs haven’t done themselves any favors by banking so many losses.
If MIL gets someone like Quintana, though, and the Cubs stand fast, that assessment changes pretty quickly.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Edwin,
538 has the Cubs finishing the season at 83-79, which is the equivalent of about an 87-88 win team over 162. They have them with a 3% chance of reaching the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus thinks they go 42-32 the rest of the way and with what they have for the Brewers, the Cubs would win the division by 1 game. BPro has the Brewers with almost a 50% chance of winning the division (Cubs at about 37%).
The Cubs might win it, but the Brewers are the favored team at this point. The Cubs are going to have to get their shit together soon if they want to have any chance. Lose another game to the Brewers and they’ve got no shot. There is no margin for error from this point forward.
From what I’ve seen of this team so far, the odds of them playing near perfect baseball for almost half a season is pretty much non-existent. They have trouble playing flawlessly for one inning.
dmick89Quote Reply
538 has them at 83 and BPro has them at 85 so I think 83-85 on the high end.
dmick89Quote Reply
Time for a fire sale.
Though my prediction is more “back of the napkin” and based on the assumption that the Cubs get Sonny Gray or someone similar, and that Eddie Butler stops getting starts. Also that one of Lackey or Montgomery stops getting starts. I agree that 88 is probably high.
PerkinsQuote Reply
The trade deadline could change the math by adding as many as a few wins for one of the teams. As someone said, if the Brewers are active and the Cubs aren’t, the Cubs may actually find themselves in the unthinkable position of no longer having the highest true talent in the division. Here’s to hoping if that happens that the Brewers waste a bunch of prospects on rentals.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Fangraphs is still a bit more bullish on the Cubs as they stand now, but I think their model weights pre-season projections much more heavily than in-season performance. They’re still only projecting the Cubs for 86 wins at this point, but they have the Brewers at ~82.
PerkinsQuote Reply
or braun gets caught using steroids again and actually gets a punishment this time around.
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Best scenario, the Cubs go 74–0, breaking the all-time wins record.
Realistic best case scenario, everybody clicks like they have the last two years, winning 50 games and the division with 93 wins. I think that this team is more likely than the 2015 team to win 50 after the break, which I would put at about 5%. The 2015 team was more like 3%.
Their current record was my preseason worst case scenario. It can absolutely get worse, but I doubt it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Yadi!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Let’s hope Davis gets his hiccups out now when it doesn’t count.
BVSQuote Reply
I figured the Cub would be the one to lose this game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I miss the years when the NL was the dominant league.
dmick89Quote Reply
tfw fangraphs goes down in the middle of writing the first new shit in weeks
berseliusQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/where-we-stand-now-2/
berseliusQuote Reply