Pondering Pitching

In Facepalm by Rice Cube112 Comments

To preface this, and for those of you who listened to the latest Dreamcast, we sort of remarked on it too:

Now it’s easy to blame David Ross for a lot, but I imagine a lot of the directives to use guys in certain spots of the lineup probably aren’t his decision, although he does use substitutions (pinch-hitting, pitching changes) sometimes mysteriously. To his credit, and to the credit of the puppeteers holding his strings, Ross hasn’t let Nick Madrigal lead off as much, and Eric Hosmer, he of the Gold Gloves, hasn’t been allowed to play first base now that Matt Mervis is up (and looking good on defense too, given the fear that he’d be a statue there), so I think he’s learning. For the series finale loss to the Astros that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, I guess I would have done things differently, but looking at who is on the active roster now, there’s not much else he could have done. Sometimes, just as it was when Dale Sveum or Rick Renteria or even Joe Maddon was the manager, the players just have to perform, and they’re not doing that right now.

If the Planβ„’ is to be successful, then that means the pitching and defense cannot make many egregious mistakes. This allows the offense, which may eventually include a healthy Nico Hoerner, a resurgent Cody Bellinger, and a host of hitters who will eventually find their groove in Seiya Suzuki, Matt Mervis, and Christopher Morel, to gradually round into form and give that pitching the run support they need. As we saw, the rotation has collectively slumped through their last turn (except for Drew Smyly, who got robbed of a victory because the guys after him decided they didn’t want to win anymore), and as many would tell you, as I did in the parenthetical, the bullpen has not found the kind of consistency at any leverage that the Planβ„’ needs to work. I think the offense will eventually take care of itself as soon as the Cubs decide they’ve had enough of certain folks that we need not name right now, but they have to do something about that pitching. I’ll be relying almost exclusively on FanGraphs to try to walk through this.

As of right now, here are notes on the pitchers on the Cubs active roster:

Starters (4)

  • Marcus Stroman – Still a groundball machine, still controls contact, nibbles a bit too much, gets walks in very inconvenient counts (probably a luck or RC confirmation bias) and occasionally gets shelled; still obviously a mainstay in the rotation
  • Justin Steele – Has accumulated the most fWAR of all Cubs pitchers so far, has been solid up until his flu start against Houston, doesn’t strike out too many guys but seems to miss the barrel more often than not, so he’s sticking around because duh
  • Drew Smyly – Striking out batters at about the same rate as Stroman, with fewer walks, and even without his perfect game attempt, has been arguably their best starter not named Steele, kind of glad the Cubs decided to re-sign him
  • Jameson Taillon – Slow start, small hiccup due to the groin injury and now ramping back up, I think he’s got the same syndrome that plagued Jon Lester and more recently Marcus Stroman in their first years of their contracts before they figured it out, so the track record suggests he’ll eventually be OK considering the obscene bad luck he seems to have had with balls in play and plays that should have been made

Can’t include Hayden Wesneski here for now as he was optioned out to Iowa, allegedly not because he’s been inconsistent and sporadically bad, but because they needed bullpen, and that’s partially because of the aforementioned bad turn in the rotation that led to several abbreviated starts in a row. The Cubs are likely going without a fifth start for about a week before they’ll have to figure this out. That’s possible Javier Assad, but we will see because Assad has had his own set of issues, particularly with the longball.

Relievers (9)

  • Adbert Alzolay – Adbert has been pretty solid in his role as the long reliever, has some bad luck with stranding guys on base but otherwise has limited the walks and continues to sport mid-90s stuff that moves
  • Nick Burdi – Just called up, pitched the one inning, hitting high-90s is kinda cool so let’s see where this goes
  • Jeremiah Estrada – Now this guy has some upper-90s stuff and I think he might have hit triple digits a couple times (wasn’t paying attention, sorry) which has led to striking out over 39% of batters faced, but the command issues in his 5-ish innings of work has led to a bunch of walks which won’t work once his LOB% normalizes, and as you might guess with both looking at the numbers and watching the games with your own eyes, this command and competitive pitch theme tracks for a few of these pitchers
  • Michael Fulmer – OK, so I think in a vacuum you can see that many of his pitches have the nastiness and he is capable of the good stuff, being a former Rookie of the Year and having served as a solid reliever the past couple seasons before he came to the Cubs to vex us. He’s fallen from the David Ross trust tree so I doubt he closes (like he did not on Wednesday, after he gave up the eventual winning homer in the first game) anytime soon unless Ross is desperate
  • Brandon Hughes – Occasionally injured, sporadically ineffective especially against righties so far this year, but in the 7ish innings he has worked so far, at least has limited the walks but as you know, walks by relievers are amplified especially when they’re in high leverage situations, so that kinda sucks for him
  • Mark Leiter Jr – Is probably better than Hughes against lefties at this point, and has struck out an absurd 37.8% of batters faced. Did give up a couple runs against literally the defending World Series champions on Wednesday but has actually looked quite good and shut me right up when I was wondering why they bothered keeping him around
  • Julian Merryweather – Throws upper-90s, doesn’t have a lot of movement, which is why a lot of his pitches get stung even though he has racked up the Ks
  • Michael Rucker – I thought of him as the designated mop-up guy early in the season, and unfortunately he hasn’t done too well when asked to work in stressful situations
  • Keegan Thompson – Keegan is a mystery, he’s walked a boatload of people, can’t seem to locate his pitches well, and has generally not looked nearly as good as when he got us all hot and bothered last season

They did throw Brad Boxberger on the IL, and like Fulmer, Boxberger was a capable reliever the past couple seasons, but he hasn’t shown the part so far, which is another alarm bell going off in my head about my fear that the Cubs Pitch Lab is breaking otherwise good pitchers, and that can’t be the case, right?

The best news is that the four starters listed above have good track records and aren’t going anywhere, and we presume will be solid going forward once they go without dinner for a couple nights. The could-be-good news is that Kyle Hendricks, who has looked good in his rehab starts with Iowa, might be ready to rejoin the rotation so he could be the fifth starter once they need one. For the bullpen, I started looking at the Smokies and I-Cubs rosters to see who could potentially make an impact, and I can list some guys who might get a sniff but for the most part, suffice it to say they all have something they need to work on, mostly the command issue because some of these walk rates (small sample size caveats apply) are scary.

Tennessee – Keeping in mind that these are going to be stretches and they would have to really impress to jump AAA all the way to Chicago…

  • DJ Herz – I like the strikeouts, I really do! But a walk rate approaching 20% is not going to fly
  • Ryan Jensen – Jensen was protected in the Rule 5 draft so he’s already on the roster, but like Herz has a command issue that needs to be dealt with, I guess he was a scouting thing because last year we already had a BB% over 15% and this year so far, it’s worse
  • Luke Little – In the 8 or so innings he’s pitched so far, Little has punched out half of the batters faced, which is ludicrous, and even that elevated BB% is probably just the small sample talking because his career rate across A-level is a few ticks lower and he was at 9.5% at South Bend before he got the promotion, and this is probably the most realistic potential promotion of this group, and it helps that he’s a lefty who can apparently throw triple digit heat
  • Jordan Wicks – I only list him because he’s one of the more recent first round picks (2021) and he’s got at least a middle of the rotation pedigree as a lefty. He’s got good command and has swing-and-miss to his game, and FanGraphs suggests he’s Rule 5 eligible for the 2024 offseason so more realistically he comes up next year, but there’s a lot of season left for him to impress. He’s not an immediate call-up by any stretch of the imagination, but certainly someone to keep an eye on.

Iowa – More likely to be immediate reinforcements

The guys already on the roster include:

  • Ben Brown – Just got called up from Tennessee, had a couple good starts but got shelled in the other. Pretty good strikeout numbers, not so lucky so far in the homer department but he’s only made the three starts so give him a couple months and he might be knocking on the door
  • Caleb Kilian – This guy is hard to figure out, he obviously has good stuff but has a weird version of the yips where he refuses to throw strikes anymore, and when he does throw the occasional strike he’s been so wild that he pretty much has to force it in so then he gets hammered. I really hope they help him figure it out, because he’s likely the first non-Assad/non-Wesneski guy called up to help the rotation when that does happen!
  • EDIT Amazingly I had Codi Heuer on the brain and totally forgot to mention him in the first pass but I’ll let that slide because we mentioned him in the Dreamcast so technically I covered it.

The guys not yet on the 40-man:

  • Bailey Horn – Lefty, appears to have excellent command in his brief time after being called up from Tennessee as well, and since he’s not on the roster, something probably has to go seriously wrong or seriously right for the Cubs to consider him at this time
  • And of course you know former Cubs relievers who have seen action at the MLB level like Manny Rodriguez and Rowan Wick, and you already know their issues, but if they can get right, especially Wick who had been splendid in the past, then that helps the team out a lot

I think the current setup makes it so that Hendricks and Wesneski are options 1A and 1B, while Assad is option 2 for the fifth starter in what should still be a strong rotation. As for the bullpen, I don’t see many internal options being imminently ready at this time, so once again I will implore the Cubs to figure this out quickly before the season slips away. These are the guys they have, and hopefully a majority of them will remember that they’re supposed to be good and pitch that way.

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  2. berselius

    Rice did an impressive job editing around all of my dog’s interruptions. She had a lot to say about the cubs, with probably more insight than my rambling.

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  3. BVS

    11:13 pm. Pelicans holding on to a 1 run lead in B7 after being down 7-0 in 3rd. I’m here with a total of about 50 other fans, (dying laughing). 90 min rain delay will do that.

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  4. BVS

    As for the bullpen, I don’t see many internal options being imminently ready at this time, so once again I will implore the Cubs to figure this out quickly

    Which is why I think a guy like Luis Cessa is in the near future. Decent RP converted to not good SP recently cut by the ghost of Marge Schott.

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  5. BVS

    Re Liam Hendricks…

    Amazing he’s nearly back. But hard to believe that he still isn’t really fatigued by the aftereffects of chemo, though I know not all chemos are created equal.

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  7. Author
    Rice Cube

    Somehow I was keeping Codi Heuer in my brain and even mentioned him in our Dreamcast episode but didn’t put him in the article (dying laughing)

    Unsure how long he will take to rehab but the high heat is pretty nice to see

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  9. BVS

    If Tucker Barnhardt get badly crossed up on a pitch from Julian Merryweather, will the next Podcast be titled Gro’in Pains?

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  13. Author
    Rice Cube

    BVS,

    Well see if it hits him there he most likely is in a crouch and that seems low given Barnhart’s height so probably not a strike even though he got struck, so I dunno…

    Hopefully by next Tuesday we have something more positive to speak of than Barnhart getting Hans Moleman’d

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  14. Author
    Rice Cube

    Here’s the Jomboy breakdown of the situation that made MLB clarify the rule so they won’t be able to do this anymore, but that was decent gamesmanship though the rules clarification wasn’t covered by Jomboy here

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  17. BVS

    Rice Cube,

    Nevada has all the leverage here because they know that if Oakland doesn’t pony up, Vegas is pretty high on the list of expansion cities. Sure, MLB could get mad that Nevada wouldn’t pony up and threaten to keep Vegas off the list, but you know the money from the location will overcome that. Vegas would have to be one of the top out-of-town markets in MLB. (Hey–let’s go see the Cubs play in Vegas!)

    That said, the state should probably pony up a little bit for infrastructure investments, like highway upgrades, etc. so that game time isn’t an aortic aneurysm waiting to happen, but they can probably get some of that covered by Pete Buttigieg.

    Of course, Fisher can keep being an A and then go back to Oakland, but Oakland would have even more leverage at that point, because of the revenue sharing time bomb in the CBA. Gotta believe that clause was unanimously (but one) approved by the owners and players because Oakland is holding up the expansion PAYDAY that everyone else has been waiting for. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if multiple clubs are put up for sale within two years of the next round of expansion, assuming the owners’ shares of expansion fees are disbursed by then.

    If the A’s do relocate, I hope they keep the font for their A, but adopt the Ace of Clubs in their branding. After all, we have ballclubs. Football, hockey, and basketball have teams but not clubs. Soccer has football clubs but there’s no MLS team there (yet) and the women’s team is Atomic City and uses an explosion. Can’t use diamonds (which, obvs!) because the WNBA Aces uses that iconography.

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  18. Author
    Rice Cube

    BVS,

    I think the NV/Vegas legislature drops them to below $200MM of taxpayer money and I’m sure the owner has enough money to make up the difference anyway, at some point enough communities have to draw the line and say “Hey, we like your sport and all but we’re not an ATM machine”…I like the idea about a playing card, maybe dress up Stomper in a blackjack dealer’s tuxedo or something

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  20. Author
    Rice Cube

    Our long Hosmer nightmare is over

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  25. BVS

    andcounting:
    All these names flying off the roster and none of them is Nick Madrigal.

    I’m always confused if comments like these get a thumbs up, because we agree with the comment, or a thumbs down because it describes something bad.

    Internet etiquette is soooo hard.

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  41. Author
    Rice Cube

    Oh it’s Nola pitching today, methinks he’s better than his line suggests so this could be a frustrating afternoon or the Cubs could just hang ten again, it could go either way.

    Blessed Lady of Prodigious Offense, please back up Jameson Taillon so he feels more comfortable throwing actual strikes that don’t suck, prithee forsooth amen

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  44. Author
    Rice Cube

    I don’t want to be the one who panics but there’s a nonzero chance Taillon is the phantom IL guy to let Hendricks give it a go next time through the order

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  48. Author
    Rice Cube

    I do wonder if they should start Taillon’s pregame prep earlier so he can get all the shitty pitches out of the way first before he gets to that first inning

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  49. Author
    Rice Cube

    Christopher Morel having pitch clock issues is a mystery considering he should have known how to deal with it when the Cubs sent him to Iowa for seasoning or whatever

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  53. andcounting

    You could count on Jon Lester to have 1-2 stinkbomb stsrts every season. Taillon has been much more consistent.

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  57. Author
    Rice Cube

    The good news, friends, is that the Cubs will avoid a shutout yet again. It is a beautiful day outside at least for me so enjoy yours, or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

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  59. Author
    Rice Cube

    Rice Cube:
    Start making your picks for which position player tosses today

    I hope they give Mastrobuoni a chance to lower his ERA

    No position guys today, wanted to see if Barnhart could air it out too

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  61. Perkins

    I was thinking Taillon would hit the IL once Hendricks returns and then I remembered Wesneski got sent down and they only have four starters right now.

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  67. Author
    Rice Cube

    The Cubs may score today but so far this appears the kind of game that will unnecessarily frustrate me so I’ll catch up to the Flash as he runs towards the series finale instead

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  74. Author
    Rice Cube

    Ok at this point I have to wonder if the Cubs just suck at sequencing or something because every mistake is getting destroyed and there are a bit too many mistakes

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  75. andcounting

    It’s a ti
    Rice Cube,

    The balls getting clobbered are pretty much right down the middle, so that’s my theory for what ain’t working from a pitching perspective. Madrigal is still hitless as a PH, so that’s shocking.

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  78. Author
    Rice Cube

    Bad execution, bad pitch calling, bad offense, everything is bad, but I suppose there’s still time to figure stuff out before we just shrug emoji for the rest of the season πŸ€·πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ

    At least they won’t be shut out (dying laughing)

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  85. andcounting

    Rice Cube:
    A Madrigal go-ahead homer would be hilarious

    You’ve gotta stop saying this. It’s like saying it would be hilarious if a two year old took cocaine and learned to fly. No, it wouldn’t be hilarious, it would be unbelievable and serve only to encourage more terrible decisions.

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  86. andcounting

    andcounting: You’ve gotta stop saying this. It’s like saying it would be hilarious if a two year old took cocaine and learned to fly. No, it wouldn’t be hilarious, it would be unbelievable and serve only to encourage more terrible decisions.

    Scratch that, I can’t tell you what to do. But I beg you.

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  90. Author
    Rice Cube

    Although if the rest of the lineup keeps staring at strike 3 and keeps stranding runners and committing TOOTBLAN crimes, then it really doesn’t matter if they’re stuck using Madrigal in a dumb situation, not to mention the rather imperfect bullpen we are being subjected to

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  93. Author
    Rice Cube

    https://theathletic.com/4539672/2023/05/21/cubs-season-spiraling/?source=emp_shared_article&access_token=1287&redirected=1

    Taillon is using his cutter against lefties this season 34.7 percent of the time and they’re hitting .435 against it with a .652 slugging percentage. Last season, the usage of his cutter against lefties was at 13 percent, the year before that was 8 percent. Taillon likes to go four-seam fastball up against lefties and then bury his curve β€” like he was trying to do against Kyle Schwarber on Saturday before he hung one that was drilled for a grand slam.

    The problem is, Taillon has had struggles with the four-seam against lefties, as well β€” .500 batting average against with a 1.200 slugging percentage. Instead of sticking with it, the catchers are going to other stuff. That makes sense in certain situations, but there’s a belief that Taillon just needs to keep going with what he knows works and he’ll eventually get right.

    Stay the course…a thousand points of light…
    /Dana Carvey Bush’d

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  94. Author
    Rice Cube

    Didn’t realize it was that big of a deal, but I have seen a couple guys get knocked in the head or hurt a shoulder running into the infielder on a steal attempt so maybe Cutch has a point

    https://theathletic.com/4539018/2023/05/22/andrew-mccutchen-base-blocking-steals-mlb-rules/?source=emp_shared_article

    β€œIt’s inevitable that someone is going to get hurt,” McCutchen told The Athletic. β€œThe only thing we can do is slide cleats-first and possibly injure (the fielder) or injure both of us. If MLB is all about preventing injuries, like they do at the plate with the catcher, why isn’t there a rule that says, β€˜If you’re receiving the ball on a steal attempt, you can’t block the base?’”

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  95. Author
    Rice Cube

    No idea if berselius had time to do a preview but the Mets are of course one of those “they could get right thanks to the Cubs” teams so I hope they get swept

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  96. berselius

    Rice Cube,

    Thought I would have time after softball last night bit hitting a double really took the wind out of me and I hit the sack not long after getting home (dying laughing).

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  100. Author
    Rice Cube

    There’s your fifth starter

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  111. berselius

    Cubs win, but more importantly, I win for cooking wagyu beef on a river stone at dinner (dying laughing)

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