Marlon Byrd is entering the final year of his contract and will earn $6.5 million in 2012. He's been a very good producer for the Cubs relative to what he's been paid. He's contributed 6.4 fWAR so far. 4.4 of that came in his first season in a Cubs uniform and last year he was worth 2 fWAR. It's worth noting that he's been worth 4.2 rWAR over those same two years (2.5 in 2011 and 1.7 last year). The difference between the two is explained by defense. Total Zone has him about average and UZR has him at +12 over those two seasons. The remaining difference is partly in the different replacement levels used and the difference in which the two are calculated. Let's split the difference and say he's been worth 5.3 WAR over the first two years of his contract.
The win has been worth $4.5 million each of the last two seasons making Byrd worth $23.85 million. Two offseasons ago he was signed to a 3-year, $15 million contract so he's already provided well more value than the contract is worth. Regardless of what Byrd does this season, the Cubs received more value from Byrd than they paid him. But he does get another year to add to his value. Before we look at that, let's take a look at last season.
Overall last year Byrd hit .276/.324/.395 (.315 wOBA, 93 wRC+). His wRC+ the previous year was 107 so his offense wasn't quite as good as a year ago. However, Byrd did suffer the type of injury that one can't help but think is very difficult to recover quickly from. If that video doesn't make you cringe there is something wrong with you. Seek help immediately.
Prior to getting injured on May 21st, Byrd was hitting .308/.346/.419. In 2010 Byrd hit .293/.346/.429 in his first year with the Cubs. Considering the decline in league average offense, through May 21, 2011 he was hitting much better than he was a year earlier. Things changed when he came back.
He returned to action on July 2nd and through the rest of the season his batting dropped to .255/.311/.380. There's no way to know if this is directly the result of being hit in the face, but it's hard to believe that it didn't have some negative impact on his ability to hit.
There's also no way to know whether or not we should expect them to be different in 2012. Getting hit by a fastball in your face isn't something you quickly forget. Byrd will probably think about that the rest of his life. He came this close to dying. If you want my opinion, my guess is that whatever negative impact this had last year will still be present in 2012. The good news is that Brett Jackson will be waiting in AAA in case Byrd is struggling. Below are the projections.
| Projection | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| CAIRO | 468 | 115 | 10 | 27 | 78 | .270 | .324 | .409 | .322 |
| Guru | 433 | 103 | 11 | 27 | 69 | .262 | .320 | .400 | .317 |
| ZiPS | 516 | 133 | 12 | 28 | 82 | .273 | .324 | .414 | .317 |
| PECOTA | 570 | 151 | 12 | 33 | 98 | .281 | .332 | .416 | .323 |
| Oliver | 623 | 157 | 12 | 31 | 93 | .274 | .323 | .408 | .321 |
| Bill James | 592 | 153 | 13 | 36 | 103 | .275 | .329 | .412 | .321 |
| RotoChamp | 495 | 133 | 10 | 27 | 82 | .284 | .337 | .415 | .330 |
| Dav-Marcel | 570 | 146 | 13 | 32 | 94 | .271 | .324 | .406 | .315 |
| Steamer | 597 | 147 | 13 | 35 | 100 | .269 | .325 | .408 | .332 |
| Marcel | 504 | 126 | 11 | 27 | 85 | .272 | .322 | .495 | .320 |
| Average | 537 | 136 | 12 | 30 | 88 | .273 | .326 | .418 | .322 |
| 2011 Proj | 548 | 152 | 14 | 35 | 95 | .283 | .336 | .430 | .335 |
| 2011 Actual | 482 | 123 | 9 | 25 | 78 | .276 | .324 | .395 | .315 |
I've included Byrd's 2011 projection and actual production. Keep in mind that offense was down last year and the projections estimated a higher base line. Overall last year we projected Byrd to be worth 1.8 WAR based on these projections and our 548 plate appearance estimate. We used wOBA so we'd want to compare to fWAR and as already mentioned, Byrd was worth 2.0 fWAR so he out-produced his projections last year despite missing time and being hit in the face with a fastball.
The .322 wOBA projection with 537 PA makes Byrd worth a projected 1.7 WAR in 2012. Add that to what he's done so far and he'd end his Cubs career with 7 WAR. He'd have provided $32.3 million in value while being paid only $15. Say what you want about Byrd. He doesn't have excellent patience. He swing at shit he shouldn't. He's still provided excellent value compared to what he's been paid and that's all you ask. If Byrd has another season like 2010 he'll more than likely pass Mark DeRosa as having been worth the most over the value he was paid. And why do I get the feeling he won't be nearly as well liked as DeRosa? Even if he only reaches his projection, he'll be right after DeRosa and if he has the type of season we're projection the fans will hate him. Explain that to me. It can't be as simple as one being white and one being black, right? Is it really that simple? I sure hope not.
Comments
By the way, I had no interest in watching that video again. None.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Seconded
MishQuote Reply
I have it well engrained in my mind and thus did not need to hit “play”. Byrd decided to get rid of the protective cheek flap this spring though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I was wondering if the cheek armor wasn’t part of it. They mentioned it on a broadcast, where it is a constant reminder. But more than that, you’ve spent 28 or whatever years hitting without that flap, then the flap is there — that’s an extra thing in your field of vision, and I could see it throwing him off just a little. I like Marlon Byrd as much as Mark Derosa, personally. Being out last year kind of cooled fans on him, but he was very well liked his first year, from what I remember. If he can return to form at the plate and deliver some of his trademark diving plays in Center, I could see him finishing in as high regard as DeRo. The only edge DeRo has is the two postseason appearances, which he really helped with. Sure, he and everyone else waffled in the postseason, but that itself gives him a boost. So, I’m going with that over racism, so that I can retain some shred of respect for mankind. Please, don’t show that racist Mississippi video again. That’s worse than Marlon getting hit in the face.
joshQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
My life in a nutshell
BerseliusQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
Bubbles is so happy about Brandon Marshall.
Back to the beach
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Bill Wennington was at the ‘Hawks game last night on “Shoot The Puck”… little thing they do during the intermission. I’m not sure if his gorilla cock joined him.
WaLiQuote Reply
There’s now an image button for the comments.
mb21Quote Reply
delete
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
It’s kind of funny because all I had to do was add 3 stupid fucking character to the javascript file of the plugin. ‘img’ That was it. I contacted the plugin creator this morning to learn that simple piece of information. I hate javascript files so I don’t like editing them unless I know what I’m supposed to do. I need to learn that stuff.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Admin only? I don’t see it. But I’m at work so it may be on my end.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
This account has the same user group as you and I can see it.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
Not seeing it either.
joshQuote Reply
Now I see it. I just had to reload.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I don’t understand that then. I saw it no problem when I logged in with the account that has the same group as you guys. You should see it on the buttons by b i link img quote. If it’s not there you can try to clear your cache. What browser are you guys using? Try a different browser.
mb21Quote Reply
First result for google image search “DeRosa” I guess it’s a bike, too, not just a baseball hero?
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Just had to reload. Sorry about that.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Ah, there’s my problem. I don’t see the b i link img buttons either (dying laughing). I just see a gray bar above the comment area where I’m assuming they are. IE7 FTL.
WaLiQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
May your day be truly irrational.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Are you forced to use IE at work?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Yeah… and I choose to at home for some reason…
Also, since the site change to wordpress I’ve learned enough html to get by so don’t worry about adding IE functionality (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I wouldn’t even know how to begin. If I tried to do that I’d probably break it in Firefox, Safari, Opera and all the other modern browsers. Some website designers have even given up on developing sites that are compatible with IE because it’s so damn hard.
mb21Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’ve noticed a few WordPress templates that are IE compatible basically require a code at the beginning that launches a whole separate css style just for IE. What a pain in the ass.
joshQuote Reply
I’m not sure how many of you have seen these, but the Mariners commercials are pretty good:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=27159014&c_id=sea
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
That’s how the joomla site was. It had separate css files for IE. It was a huge pain in the ass. Editing the files is easy enough, but having to edit two sucks. Forgetting which one you edited is even worse. I don’t have IE so I don’t have any way to test the site in it.
In this case I think it’s going to require a shitload of javascript that tells the browser what to do based on what browser it is. There’s already enough java running on the site so that would only slow it up. Last I checked, only a few of our users use IE so I’m not too concerned about it.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m looking at it in IE right now, but only because I’m at work. I figure not seeing whatever the hell you guys are talking about is my penance for getting paid to read a baseball blog.
UrkQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Don’t presume to tell our browsers what to do.
Aisle424Quote Reply
palm —-> face
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/daily-facepalm-3-14-12.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
We must know different Cubs fans. I just hear about love for Byrd. I think that due to his over optimistic attitude and charisma, he won’t be hated by the majority of fans. Just one idiot’s opinion.
jherkyQuote Reply