Yesterday the Cubs traded Marlon Byrd to the Red Sox for Michael Bowden and a player to be named later. Bowden was drafted in the 1st round (47th overall) in 2005. He was the last of the 5 draft picks the Red Sox had in the 1st round that year.
In 2006 Bowden established himself as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. In 112.2 innings he allowed 100 hits, walked 32 and struckout 121. The right hander was the 83rd ranked prospect in baseball entering the 2007 season. Over 146 innings in 2007 his strikeouts dropped a bit, but was still a very good 8.1 per 9. He showed very good control (2.6 BB/9). He was still the 94th ranked prospect entering 2008. This was his best season as he struckout 8.1 per 9, walked under 2 per 9 and allowed only 7 hits per 9 over 144 innings. He did this at the age of 21 in AA and AAA. He was again the 83rd ranked prospect after the season. Then things started to fall apart.
In 2009 he struckout 6.5 per 9. His walks jumped to 3.3 per 9. He reached the big leagues that year, which is pretty impressive for someone his age, but things didn't go too well in his 16 innings of work. He was no longer ranked in the top 100 and the following year he managed to strikeout and walk the same number of people. The idea of him being a strikeout pitcher had passed at this point.
He converted full time to the bullpen in 2011 and he struckout over 10 batters per 9 innings. He's thrown a total of 59.1 big league innings and has a 5.61 ERA and 4.58 FIP. He's thrown just 3 innings this year and is out of options so he'll have to remain on the Cubs roster.
He throws a 4-seamer that has averaged about 92.9 mph over his career. He also throws a slider and a changeup and every once in awhile he may throw a curve. His average fastball velocity so far this year is 92.6. If you scroll down on this link and check out the similar pitchers you'll notice a familiar name. The most similar pitcher is Heath Rollins. Logan Ondrusek is next and he's followed by Kerry Wood.
The Cubs have been looking for bullpen help for awhile now and Bowden will get every chance to prove it should be him. It would be really nice if last season's conversion to the bullpen is what he's capable of, but it was his 4th trip through AAA and it was also a very small sample.
The projections don't think much of him, but that's for obvious reasons. Keep in mind that these were projections for the Red Sox. You can improve the numbers slightly because of the move to the National League. I used the ones available on Fangraphs and included CAIRO and PECOTA too.
| Type | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP |
| RotoChamp | 52 | 54 | 7 | 19 | 40 | 4.34 | 4.41 |
| Bill James | 30 | 30 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 4.20 | 4.36 |
| Marcel | 37 | 37 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 4.38 | 3.95 |
| ZiPS | 69 | 70 | 9 | 30 | 54 | 4.52 | 4.58 |
| CAIRO | 53 | 62 | 7 | 22 | 35 | 5.03 | 4.67 |
| PECOTA | 58 | 63 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 4.71 | 4.29 |
| Average | 50 | 53 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 4.53 | 4.38 |
Not terrible, but not very good either. Below are the percentile forecasts based on the average above.
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR | TBF | BABIP |
| 80% | 44 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 55 | 50 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 48 | 4.26 | 3.68 | 3.14 | 0.8 | 231 | 0.282 |
| 65% | 42 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 52 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 42 | 4.75 | 4.13 | 3.76 | 0.3 | 227 | 0.287 |
| Baseline | 40 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 53 | 29 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 37 | 5.24 | 4.59 | 4.37 | -0.1 | 223 | 0.293 |
| 35% | 32 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 45 | 25 | 22 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 27 | 5.72 | 5.04 | 4.99 | -0.4 | 183 | 0.297 |
| 20% | 24 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 36 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 6.21 | 5.50 | 5.61 | -0.5 | 141 | 0.302 |
You'll notice the RA/ERA/FIP are slightly off what they are in the first table. That's because of rounding. The percentiles are obviously based on the mean so if the mean is wrong the percentiles are too. Since this is the year of the transformation in Chicago we can't really be sure what the mean is. If the Cubs get the 80th percentile this is a great trade for the Cubs. If they get the mean it's probably a pretty bad one. Especially when you consider the Cubs are paying almost all of Byrd's remaining salary. We still don't know who the player to be named later is, but those usually aren't guys who change our opinions about whether or not it was a good, OK or bad trade.
Comments
I hope Bowden works out. Seems like he’d have potential as a former 1st rounder/sup. rounder. Byrd wasn’t gonna bring back much anyway.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Speaking of command…
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/roy-halladay-walks-three-straight-first-time-10-075556753.html
Roy had a bad day.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Roy’s velo and K-rate are down, too. Can we say he’s finished, or do we have to wait till May to do that?
ACTQuote Reply
I think the trade was partly about giving Byrd a chance to play for a good team, since he’s already earned his contract and then some, and a way to give Campana and Mather some playing team, while freeing up a spot for BJax down the road. I know Campana and Mather aren’t much to talk about, but it gives the outfield a new look and that’s something to keep fans interested.
joshQuote Reply
Speedy is hitting no. 2 today. Oy.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Is that the time of transformation?
Speaking of Boston:
All Theo’s fault. And Cherington too. Bastards.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
At least, LaHair is no longer hitting 7th. Baby steps.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Has he pitched 13 innings yet?
mb21Quote Reply
MD- the update is saved for when you need it.
dylanjQuote Reply
@ mb21:
He’s leading the league with 30.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Then we know it’s real. That’s almost 3 times as large a sample as required.
mb21Quote Reply
Big storm in the East, couple games already postponed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-binnys-beverage-depot.html
mb21Quote Reply
“He’s thrown just 3 innings this year and is out of options so he’ll have to remain on the Cubs roster.”
And yet, it says on cubs.com that he’s on the 40-man roster but not on the 25-man roster. What am I missing here?
JLQuote Reply
Mike went to high school with my daughter in aurora illinois.he’s a great kid he’s back home I think he will do great.
You need to give him a chance.
pamQuote Reply
Bowden made his career very well deserved to be the best prospect for this. I remember how he recovered and come very strong after his painful accident. He is definitely a great player.
Allen VanessaQuote Reply
Mike Bowden is a rising star and immensely talented player.He has fought hard during his low period and conquered all the hurdles to come back to the top that has made him today the player in demand by the reputed clubs.
Green AustinQuote Reply
I admire Mike Bowden for his talent and courage. I admire him very much. As rightly mentioned by Green Austin, he is a rising star. He has overcome a lot of hardships and deserves the place he is in now. He is truly a hero in real life also.
Allen HannahQuote Reply
I think we all should learn a lot from Mike Bowden. He has so much courage. I am much older than him, but when I face any difficulty I totally fall down. mind I lose all courage and find it unable to face the difficulty. But now I have made up my mind to face any trouble. Hats off to him.
SamanthaQuote Reply
I love these comments. Truly Mike Bowden is lord of all he surveys, the last action hero. Godspeed, Mike Bowden, may the world know your terrible great fastball (terrible in the good sense).
MylesQuote Reply
My heart wrenched reading about Mike Bowden’s debilitating injuries, tragedic long period of recovery and the emotional rollercoaster ride he had in his life.But as one says’the talent and the preowess can never diminish’,Bowden is the real-life example of it by proving himself worth again.
Alyssa électriquesQuote Reply
I was one of those few lucky who had witnessed Mikey’s best showing when he broke the record of most wide pitches in April 2012.I have followed him since he was with Portland Sea Dogs in 2007 till today.His present team Boston Red Sox is emerging since his participation in the club.He is a player of great calibre and has a great future ahead.
Luke einshadeQuote Reply
I was shaken knowing the history of Miky Bowden and had goosebumps all over me.But I also feel proud and inspired as today he has emerged like a phoenix from ashes.Red Sox is my favourite team after Mikey’s involvement into it.I am sure he has many more years of glory to come
Ariana momaymaQuote Reply
I too was shocked reading this article. Michael Bowden is a hero in a true sense. He has overcome so many challenges in his life. I salute him for his spirit. Red Sox is my favorite team too . He sure has a successful life ahead.
Thompson EvelynQuote Reply
Mike Bowden is a very talented player. I never knew he has so many problems. He is really a true hero. He has overcome so many problems and yet managed to play well and prove his talent. I pray to God that he has showered is more blessings form now on.
Jones DiegoQuote Reply
I came across this article by accident and appreciate this different yet quite appealing subject of this article.The demand of different players by the clubs vary according to their performance status.I am delighted to see that ,my favourite Mikey Bowden is riding on such a high fame and has proved himself a trump card from time to time.It is quite warm to see a good response in the form of comments following it.
Vanessa ampsydQuote Reply
My heartiest congratulations to Bowden for being the player in highest demand.He deserve to be the most coveted player of this generation.The credit goes to his diligent efforts and sincere contribution to the sport.He is also very modest in real which makes his personality more and more vibrant.
Jose devicQuote Reply