We haven't looked at any of the pitcher projections yet, so we might as well start with the longest tenured starter on the squad. Last year, Dempster looked utterly awful in the first month of the season. He had some terrible BABIP and HR luck but was generally being hit hard. However, after his first 6-8 starts or so he settled down and pitched right in line with his projections going into the season. It wasn't enough to undo the awful first month but it's a glimmer of hope going forward. By fWAR he was worth 2.8 WAR, worth a little less than what he was paid. Of course, fWAR kind of stinks since FIP is more of a predictive stat rather than a descriptive one. rWAR only had his season at 0.9 WAR.
Dempster is on the last year of his contract after exercising his player option last October and hinted that he'd love to stay around. As far as I remember there has been utter silence on this topic from the Hall of Justice, but the Superfriends may be able to leverage his desire to stick around into a discount. Of course, a large portion of the reason he wants to stick around could be his daughter's health, and if so that would be kind of a dick move for Thoyer to use that against him.
What can we expect from next year? Here are Ryan Dempster's numbers from various projection systems.
| Projection | IP | BB | HBP | SO | HR | ERA | FIP |
| Steamer | 189 | 69 | 6 | 164 | 20 | 3.93 | 3.87 |
| Bill James | 203 | 80 | 7 | 185 | 21 | 3.95 | 3.85 |
| RotoChamp | 200 | 79 | 6.33 | 188 | 22 | 4.01 | 3.87 |
| Tango Marcel | 183 | 69 | 6 | 164 | 20 | 4.18 | 3.90 |
| ZiPS | 174 | 67 | 6 | 153 | 21 | 4.24 | 4.11 |
| CAIRO | 200 | 76 | 7 | 184 | 22 | 3.99 | 3.88 |
| PECOTA | 186 | 65 | 6.33 | 153 | 19 | 3.92 | 3.87 |
| Oliver | 195 | 73 | 6.33 | 172 | 22 | 4.42 | 3.96 |
| DavMarcel | 183.3 | 71 | 6.33 | 165 | 18 | 4.03 | 3.78 |
| Guru | 167.7 | 65 | 6 | 145 | 19 | 4.19 | 4.05 |
| Average | 188.1 | 71.4 | 6.33 | 167.3 | 20.4 | 4.09 | 3.92 |
The FIP values are computed based only on BB, HBP, SO, and HR, and is rescaled to the league ERA based on the past two seasons. Last year was an incredibly pitcher-friendly year in the NL, and it will be interesting to see if that continues this season. Since only half the systems provided HBP data I just used the average of the systems that did provide that data. I'm also being sloppy and simply averaging numbers that have different denominators, but eh.
Based on this run environment, Dempster will provide 23.04 Runs Above Replacement, or 2.36 WAR. Dempster will be paid $14m next season (as well as $3m in deferred money that allowed the Cubs to sign the one-armed bandit, Xavier Nady. Let us never speak of this again). Given an estimate of $5m / win, the Cubs are overpaying Dempster by just over two million dollars. Of course, the Cubs made up that amount in spades earlier in the contract. That's just the way back-loading works.
Comments
Hmm. How do you project HBP? I thought they kind of just happened at random.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
You project HBP the same way you project other numbers: past performance and regression toward the mean.
ACTQuote Reply
Marmol has hit 44 batters in 459 1/3 career innings. Cliff Lee has hit 45 batters in 1641 2/3 innings.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
OK, I didn’t know you could do that reliably like you would with BB and K.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Urk wrote:
(dying laughing)
There was no documentary. I just never liked sci fi and fantasy stuff. If everyone in the room wants to put on the LOTR DVD, I’m probably going to go find something non-fiction to watch, but probably just as geeky.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
That’s just the way contracts work.
Imaginary Player
2012: 3.5 WAR
2013: 3.0
2014: 2.5
2015: 2.0
He’s paid $14.5 million annually.
2012: $17.5 $WAR
2013: 15.75 $WAR
2014: 13.78 $WAR
2015: 11.58 $WAR
It’s a perfect contract yet in the final years he’s being paid more than he’s worth. That’s precisely because he was paid less in the first two years.
I know you know this, but I thought I’d point it out anyway. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Headline I recently enjoyed:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Am I the only one who didn’t know “extreme DUI” was a thing?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/06/alex-white-may-be-charged-with-extreme-dui/
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
No.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Spring Training Hagiography Part 4,932,349,121 from BMiles
This is important, because so many baseball players do it wrong.
Unlike most players, who usually fail to see the play coming and don’t know where to position themselves.
It was during a slow inning in Pittsburg when he realized he should probably move out of his parents house before things got too weird.
But the Cubs probably won’t need any of those 8 players to play second base this year, seeing as they probably play the game the wrong way, are usually in the wrong spot at the wrong time, and make horrible decisions on the field.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
One time LaMahieu decided to get a tattoo on his ankle during seventh-inning warmups. That’s not the Cubs Way.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Yeah, just ask Ryan Dunn.
EDIT: That was terrible, and I hate myself now.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Once Marwin Gonzales saw the runner on first base break for second, and he ran to back up the catcher.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
That actually sounds plausible.
In that I believe it could have happened, not that it was a good idea.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I don’t know, but I’m lucky Iowa didn’t have one.
mb21Quote Reply
I would like someone to define the right way. Just one of these people who say it. Many do. Surely one has thought about it enough that they could provide a broad definition. I need that because I want to tear it to shreds.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
“plays the game the right way.” ———-> sucks but tries hard.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Your compulsion toward violence is troubling.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I have not been reading the beat writers this spring, but this morning I saw that one and Gordo’s piece on Campana that called him the “belle of the ball” in the headline (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) and it forced a reaction.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I wish I could photoshop the right way.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Lineup today
DeJesus RF
Byrd CF
DeWitt 2B
Adolfo DH
Stewart 3B
Lake SS
Rizzo 1B
Castillo C
Jackson LF
P Garza
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
You didn’t post the lineup the right way.
mb21Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I know that’s what it actually means, but I’d like someone who believes this shit to define it. I have no idea what they’d say. Apparently it’s what Bruce Miles said, which is just fucking retarded.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Oh, I don’t think HBP projections are anywhere near as accurate for one year as strikeouts or walks. But some pitchers clearly hit more batters than others.
ACTQuote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
But… Dexter Fowler!
ACTQuote Reply
@ mb21:
This was a Twitter-bombing I recently enjoyed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Brett from BN shared this on Facebook:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0a9kLDdAot4
Wish I had a PS3…”The Show” is probably the only game I’d play on it though, plus Blu-Ray.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Are people comparing him to Dexter Fowler or something? Fowler’s BB% has remained the same, but it’s been considerably better than Barney’s. People expecting Barney to increase his walk rate are dreaming. They don’t understand why players are walked. I know everyone here knows because it’s obvious, but Bonds was walked more because the pitchers weren’t going to challenge him. They tried to get him out outside the zone, which led to lots of balls and walks.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t follow Miles, but saw the quotes in SK’s comment that had to be addressed. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I recall Mark McGwire almost never swung at a 3-0 pitch, and I don’t even remember the last time a pitcher decided to press his luck and challenge Bonds on 3-0. Usually by 3-0 Bonds was starting to take off that ginormous elbow/forearm sleeve thing he always wore.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
No. I was just looking at BB% leaders and trying to dig up the best counterexample I could find (of someone who’s not an intimidating hitter who walks a lot).
ACTQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
He only ended 16 career AB’s with a 3-0 count (as opposed to 320 walks). http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mcgwima01&year=Career&t=b#count::none
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
There aren’t many, are there?
mb21Quote Reply
By the way, all projections posted here from this point forward will be as simple as possible.
Does he play the game the right way?
If yes, we project him to be worth 6 WAR. If no, we project 0 WAR.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
That would certainly save you a lot of time and work.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Not really. There’s so much to consider about whether or not he plays the game the right way. Is he in the right position? We’ll have to look at video for hundreds of plays to determine this. Does he make good decisions? We’ll have to watch every player every game to determine this one. It will take thousands of hours. Sounds like a simple yes/no, but it’s far from that. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/44999/smacketology-day-two-on-mouzone-mofos-and-matchups
How the hell did Cutty beat Chris? Fixed.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Ah, so you’ll still have to calculate his xSCRAP and wGRINDY+.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Nope. And Fowler’s a unique beast. He has no power and strikes out a lot, and lives off his walk rate and insanely high BABIP.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
We’re going to invent all kinds of metrics to answer that yes/no question. I probably won’t be around for a year.
mb21Quote Reply
If any PS3-folks are getting “The Show” today, could you let me know how it plays? I am unfortunately stuck with the 2k series. Damn exclusivity.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
We should start calling DeJesus DeDeRosa. I don’t know why I just thought of that.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Why do you play 2k? Do you have a PS3? The Show is the best sports game out there. Better than Madden, 1,000 times better than 2k. The only sports game that I think comes close is FIFA. The Show is so good it’s worth buying a PS3 just for that game IMHO.
MuckerQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
False.
Is he white?
Yes ——> plays game the right way
No
V
V
Does he make a lot of money?
No ———> plays the game the right way
Yes ——–> clubhouse cancer
Aisle424Quote Reply
We may have to add the question “Is he having fun out there?” into that matrix, but it’s still pretty simple.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Mucker:
I do not have a PS3. I will have to go many nights without dinner before I can afford one. And I am painfully aware that 2k sucks, but bad baseball > no baseball…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Great point. I’m glad I didn’t get started on this elaborate system. After a year I’d have thought of the player’s whiteness and it would have answered the question itself.
mb21Quote Reply
I have to pass on purchasing this year’s “The Show” as I just blew a whole lot of money on the Game of Thrones Blu Ray and 4 seasons of the Simpsons that complete Seasons 1-9 for me.
MishQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
I see. Have you ever played the Show? Not only is the gameplay far and away better than 2k, but the Road to the Show mode is pure awesome. If you are not in love with your Xbox, maybe see about a trade? PS3 to me is the better value because it’s also a Blu-Ray player.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I like my Xbox for the exclusive games like Halo and GOW, but I have played the Show a few times while at the demo station at Best Buy and I really enjoy it. I think I’ll get a PS3 (or whatever) in a year or so and play The Show 2014 (hopefully they don’t mess it up)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
That’s when you surf with a Blood Mountain Dew Content over the legal limit.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah I hear ya. I’ve had PS3 since launch but none of my friends have a PS3 so I got an Xbox for my main gaming console and for online play for GoW and CoD and shit like that and use the PS3 for the blu-ray and the Show.
MuckerQuote Reply
I wish they’d put out more sports games for PC. All this PC power, and I can’t make the Cubs win. Now I know how Superman felt when his dad died.
I think the people saying “Playing the right way” would define it as 1) hustles even on routine outs, 2) doesn’t intentionally try to hurt anyone, but sticks up for his team mates when required (i.e., plunks a guy, or slides hard on a double play), 3) no show-boating in any way.
It’s hard, damn hard, though, not to read racism into though, right? Like everything Newt Gingrich says. The automatic algebra your mind does works out just too perfectly.
joshQuote Reply
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
(dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
“Playing the right way” just means the writer likes the guy but can find no objective measure that indicates the player is anything but average or worse, so the writer then resorts to cliches and nebulous evaluative language.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
We need to start a campaign to take back the term “playing the right way”. It should mean “being good at baseball”. If you’re not good at baseball, you’re definitely not playing the right way.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Carlos Silva —-> broken
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Interetsing, RC. I’d like to subscribe to your newsletter.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Don’t you already?
(gotta make Theo’s hat less polygonal in the next iteration)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BTW, did Bruce Miles ever answer the tweets?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is a great commercial for MLB The Show: The Cubs winning the World Series
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=JVGAfA15U1I
MishQuote Reply
http://www.lakesareasports.com/newsarticle.php?yid=1112&nid=53371
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Yeah that commercial’s great. Kinda sad though seeing as that’s the only way we’ll be celebrating a Cubs World Series win. (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I love the clear shots of Weiner Circle and Sluggers amongst other things. Probably not too different from how it’d go (with the exception that it will never happen). (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
They forgot to show all the riots.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
But with Cubs stuff and a baseball bat instead.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
No chocolate milk shakes at Weiner’s Circle, thankfully. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
That’s some sound analysis.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ josh:
I did not know Mercurial Outfielder was a girl.
Interesting.
Chris KingsburyQuote Reply
@ Chris Kingsbury:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’d take one for a WS ring. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
“Why play for this money, not enough to incent him.”
Every article should have at least one neologism.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Did you know the writer considers himself a doctor? Have a problem? Just ask Dr. Dan! He’ll tell you what you don’t and won’t achieve.
WaLiQuote Reply
We’re going to need someone to photoshop Alvin o his iPhone into this picture:
Aisle424Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/games/spring-training-game-3-rockies-cubs.html
mb21Quote Reply