Shortstop is the last infield position we have to look at it and it's without a doubt the most exciting position. If you look at Starlin Castro's fWAR you can't help but be impressed, but if you look at his rWAR he looks much less impressive. Whereas UZR sees Castro as a well below average fielder, Total Zone sees him as just plain terrible. His career rWAR is only 2.8 while his fWAR is double that.
For the projections I've been ignoring defense. I don't trust UZR and Total Zone well enough. While I'm certain Castro is at best a well below average fielder right now, I'm not at all certain how many runs below average he's been. I'm less certain either are all that useful in considering for 2012 projections. You can add or subtract based on what you think he's worth defensively.
| Projection | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| CAIRO | 631 | 168 | 9 | 42 | 87 | .287 | .340 | .412 | .332 |
| Guru | 628 | 166 | 6 | 39 | 83 | .287 | .333 | .409 | .326 |
| ZiPS | 673 | 191 | 9 | 39 | 85 | .301 | .343 | .432 | .339 |
| PECOTA | 695 | 197 | 8 | 33 | 95 | .298 | .332 | .410 | .325 |
| Oliver | 658 | 185 | 6 | 33 | 79 | .304 | .340 | .420 | .333 |
| Bill James | 669 | 197 | 8 | 38 | 82 | .312 | .354 | .441 | .347 |
| RotoChamp | 665 | 191 | 9 | 37 | 86 | .304 | .346 | .430 | .339 |
| Dav-Marcel | 684 | 184 | 7 | 37 | 87 | .284 | .327 | .396 | .316 |
| Steamer | 677 | 187 | 9 | 40 | 83 | .299 | .342 | .433 | .350 |
| Average | 664 | 185 | 8 | 38 | 85 | .297 | .340 | .420 | .334 |
The Dav-Marcel and Clay Davenport's Marcel projections. You may notice that I have a .350 wOBA for Steamer while Fangraphs has him at .337. I'm not entirely sure what the difference is. I've used the basic wOBA formula so I imagine that inflates the numbers I've posted above a little bit. If you estimate his wOBA based on the OBP and SLG you get .338. Steamer includes HBP and ROE projections, which I have included. That increases the wOBA. Most of the other projections don't include either one. I don't believe any of them include ROE, but Bill James I think includes HBP. When you have 9 projections it's not going to make much of a difference overall. If I drop the Steamer projection to match Fangraphs .337 I get an average projection of .333 rather than .334. No big deal.
If I estimate 650 plate apppearances and use a .325 league wOBA that makes Castro worth 3.1 offensive WAR next year. Darwin Barney would be the back-up to SS, but will hopefully play sparingly. Estimating Barney's projected value at SS over 50 or so plate appearances just isn't worth it.
2012 is Castro's final year making league minimum. The time to consider signing him to a long-term extension is getting closer. He'll have 4 years of arbitration eligibility. Using +.5 WAR improvement for someone Castro's age we get something like this over the next 5 years.
| Year | WAR | per win | Value | Salary |
| 2012 | 3.1 | $5 | $15.50 | $0.40 |
| 2013 | 3.6 | $5.25 | $18.90 | $7.56 |
| 2014 | 4.1 | $5.51 | $22.60 | $9.04 |
| 2015 | 4.6 | $5.79 | $26.63 | $15.98 |
| 2016 | 4.6 | $6.08 | $27.96 | $22.37 |
| Total | $55.34 |
That's what we would estimate Castro to be paid over the next 5 seasons. Obviously you'd want a discount if you're going to take the risk of signing him to a long-term extension. Contracts longer than 3 years already get a 10% discount. That takes it down to just under $50 million. I figure the Cubs should pay no more than 70% of his projected value over the next 5 years if they were to sign him long-term. That's 5-years and $35 million.
That's the maximum I'd consider paying Castro at this point. I'd probably shoot for something closer to 5-years and $28 million. I might try to buy one or two more years too. The Cubs may want to wait awhile considering the potential legal issues surrounding Castro at the moment.
Comments
Huh.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
BJ’s panglossian predictions perpetually perplex me.
ACTQuote Reply
I like how the thumbs up and thumbs down counters are separate now. Good job!
WaLiQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Bill James just has a higher league average. Whereas most of the other projections have a league wOBA around .325, James is often about .340. To get more accurate results for an average projection I’d have to consider the league average, but it’s not going to make enough of a difference that I’m going to bother with hit.
mb21Quote Reply
How come you always leave out projected RBIs? How are we supposed to know if he’ll earn his money or not?
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
He didn’t. It’s the same as his home runs.
GBTSQuote Reply
You should include a column to reflect the “gritty hustle” multiplier.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Looks like you had fun on your trip to Toronto, Mish.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLOps4qA5rM
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I figured his RBI total was assumed. All whites have projected RBI totals over 100 while all non-whites are projected to drive in 3/5 of that total.
mb21Quote Reply
That Batman video is hysterical. I love how he keeps repeating his parents are dead.
MuckerQuote Reply
Starlin Castro. Pretty much the only hope for an entertaining season.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Castro, Jackson, Garza. Rizzo too if he takes over at some point.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mucker:
You think I was joking about my parents being murdered?
MishQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m not expecting to see a lot of Jackson or Rizzo for the first part of the season. Garza will be good, but only every five days or so. At least for the first half, I expect Castro to be the main reason to tune in every day.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I used to think so. But now I’m not so sure.
MuckerQuote Reply
You’re forgetting that the Cubs will trade for Hanley Ramirez to back up Castro. As we learned from Aramis in 2009, you need to make sure your best player has a good backup.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
And leave out his runs? That’s only half of the vital R+RBI statistic. That’s like talking about catcher defense using only CERA and not taking finger tape into account.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah, without Castro there really is no reason to watch. As exciting as he is, he’s also not the type of player that’s going to hit 30 home runs so there’s a limited amount of excitement about him. At least for me anyway.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m not expecting to see Rizzo before September unless LaHair sucks and Rizzo is wOBAing something like .450 in Iowa. Thoyer knows that they might as well not burn options/service time unless they have to.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Similar with Jackson. I agree Castro’s excitement is somewhat tempered. If guys can get on base ahead of him, he might drive in some runs and turn a few losses into wins. Maybe he’ll make a run at Dimaggio’s record or something fun.
joshQuote Reply
My MLB audio account just renewed. Let the games begin.
joshQuote Reply
No Kate Upton video this thread??!??!? Negative faget point.
I think I almost McNutted in my pants when I watched it.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Micks dig the long ball.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I thought Rizzo has “nothing more to prove” at AAA.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
He needs to show the Ham Fighters what he’s made of. They’ve only seen tapes so far.
joshQuote Reply
New Fpaaclem
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/daily-facepalm-2-29-12.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
If LaHair is having a really good season I imagine he’ll play 1st most of the year. He could be someone who has a little trade value at the deadline. If Rizzo is playing well at that point I don’t think they’ll hesitate to bring him up. Hoyer didn’t do it last season so I don’t think it will stop him this year either. As for Jackson, I don’t know how long the Cubs can justify leaving their best outfielder in the minor leagues. The union will not approve. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply