Yesterday, we heard the strongest whispers yet that Javier Baez was making the Opening Day roster. While not altogether unexpected, it nonetheless helps to shape the roster (and with just 2 weeks left, we’ll be hearing a lot more of these soon, I’d wager). The 5th OF and the 6th (or 7th) reliever aren’t the most pivotal positions on the team, but those are probably the only positions that aren’t already settled. Let’s look at the 25-man now and see what we find.
Locks – Offense
1B – Anthony Rizzo
SS – Starlin Castro
CF- Dexter Fowler
C – Miguel Montero
Clearly, these four will be the starters at their respective positions. No one would argue this. It’s not worth talking about the possibility that this doesn’t happen. It is happening.
Near Locks – Offense
RF – Jorge Soler
LF – Chris Coghlan
C2 – David Ross
2B – Javier Baez
It would be a big surprise if camp didn’t break with these two not in their positions. That being said, we haven’t heard definitively, and Soler IS still a rookie. He does lead all Cubs OF in AB (36), and he’s had a nice spring, and I put the odds for him at over 90%. Coghlan has had less time, and the Cubs have been very quiet about him. That said, there isn’t any real replacement at the moment, and he hasn’t done anything in 2014 or 2015 that would indicate he isn’t worthy of the shot. David Ross is Jon Lester‘s preferred caddy, but the commitment to him is relatively low and it’s conceivable Maddon decides he’d rather have Castillo and 2 total catchers than Ross and 2 total catchers (though it’s very unlikely). Javier Baez is probably the starting 2B, because it doesn’t make sense to keep him up in the majors and then not give him playing time.
Toss-Up, Leaning In – Offense
UTIL – Arismendy Alcantara
UTIL – Tommy La Stella
There’s a scenario in which both of these players make the team. Alcantara can be the utility outfielder who plays some 3rd, and La Stella can be the 2B/3B that relieves Baez for PH opps when they need a ball in play. The problem here is that a 3rd catcher really cuts into the bench, which probably puts one of these people in AAA. In the end, I think it’s smoke, and Maddon will carry 2 catchers.
Toss-Up, Leaning Out – Offense
4OF – Chris Denorfia
4OF – Junior Lake
4OF – Ryan Sweeney
3B – Mike Olt
One of these outfielders, and maybe two, will make the team, but I have no idea which. I’m partial to Junior Lake because of the “upside,” and he’s had roughly a half-dozen more PAs than either of the other two. This is probably the most in-play roster spot. Olt is a true 50/50 proposition, and maybe even a better shot to make the team than Alcantara. It really depends on positional flexibility.
Longshot – Offense
C2 – Welington Castillo
UTIL – Chris Valaika
A 3rd catcher only works if one of the catchers can also play RF or 1B. Castillo could probably play 1B, but Rizzo is playing there 160 games barring an injury. That’s why I believe they won’t carry a 3rd catcher. Valaika will only make the team if the Cubs want Alcantara to be the everyday CF at Iowa or something.
7 of the 8 offensive starters are basically set. I can see the following 13-man offensive roster:
CF Fowler (S)
1B Rizzo (L)
SS Castro (R)
LF Coghlan (L)
RF Soler (R)
C Montero (L)
2B Baez (R)
P Lester
3B Olt (R)/La Stella (L) (platoon)
Olt/La Stella
Lake
Sweeney
Alcantara
Ross
Backup 1B: Olt
Backup 2B: La Stella/Alcantara
Backup SS: Alcantara/Baez
Backup 3B: Olt/La Stella/Alcantara
Backup LF: Lake/Sweeney/Olt
Backup CF: Sweeney/Lake
Backup RF: Olt/Lake
This is a very flexible 5-man bench. Note that you have a backup lefty and righty at every position that isn’t C, RF or 1B (and the backup 1B is the platoon partner for Rizzo).
Locks – Pitching
SP – Jon Lester
SP – Jason Hammel
SP – Jake Arrieta
SP – Kyle Hendricks
CL – Hector Rondon
SU – Neil Ramirez
SR – Justin Grimm
SR – Pedro Strop
Nothing to see here. These guys are all making it.
Near Locks – Pitching
SP – Travis Wood
LG – Phil Coke
MR – Jason Motte
I’d put the odds or Wood and Coke right around 90% each. Motte is a little lower, but still very high. As you can see, there aren’t many pen options in fluxx.
Toss-Up, Leaning Out- Pitching
LR – Felix Doubront
LR – Tsuyoshi Wada
Doubront likely profiles as the long-man in the bullpen that waits for an injury to get a chance to spot start. Wada might also be that guy (though he’s a great phantom DL stint candidate). It’s also possible there is a shocker from the next group of maybes.
Longshots – Pitching
LG – Joe Ortiz
LG – Drake Britton
LG – Zach Rosscup
LR – Brian Schlitter
LR – Blake Parker
LR – Edwin Jackson
It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if Ortiz, Rosscup, or Britton took the LOOGY (Which I’m trying to abbreviate to LG this year) job for Opening Day. It would very much surprise me if Schlitter, Parker, or Edwin Jackson made the team. As stated in our podcast, we here at OV just don’t think he’ll throw a meaningful pitch for the Cubs unless it’s for the other team. The clearest path is an injury to Wood, but even then, Doubront or Wada might be ahead of him at this point.
Best Guess at the 25-man Roster
Miguel Montero
Anthony Rizzo
Javier Baez
Starlin Castro
Mike Olt
Chris Coghlan
Dexter Fowler
Jorge Soler
Tommy La Stella
Arismendy Alcantara
Junior Lake
Ryan Sweeney
David Ross
Jon Lester
Jake Arrieta
Jason Hammel
Kyle Hendricks
Travis Wood
Felix Doubront
Phil Coke
Pedro Strop
Justin Grimm
Jason Motte
Neil Ramirez
Hector Rondon
Let me know where you think I screwed up!