By the time this publishes the Cubs might decide to finally designate Jason Heyward for assignment, but for now he’s safe on the 40-man roster, which will likely also be updated soon:
Per the prior status check, the roster should be at 36, but for some reason I’m counting 37, and if we remove Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young as the announcement claims, then we are at 35, not 34:
So we can wait for the transaction log to reconcile, but before Tuesday’s deadline, I think the following players will be removed so they can protect Rule 5 eligible prospects:
- Alfonso Rivas — He unfortunately didn’t take advantage of his playing time and generally just sucked even though he seems like a nice guy
- Jason Heyward — The Cubs have been open about eating the last year of his contract
- Rafael Ortega — I just don’t think he has a spot on an allegedly competitive 2023 Cubs team
- Nelson Velázquez — Same as Rivas, just didn’t take full advantage of any opportunities David Ross actually gave him
The next are maybes, because there are a lot more prospects that folks are fearing may be Rule 5 Draft casualties without protection, so to clear out any extra space:
- Alexander Vizcaíno — was on the restricted list because apparently he hates baseball now (or has other things he needs to do/would rather do, more power to him and best of luck) so I’m unsure if he will be retained even if he decides he wants to still play
- Manuel Rodríguez — Manny did return late in the season but there seemed to be major command issues and a noticeable velocity drop so I think even if they dumped him off the roster, he’s not going anywhere (AZ Phil says he’s not eligible for minor league free agency yet)
- Mark Leiter Jr — Out of option years and while it would be nice to have a multi-inning guy, I feel like the Cubs could easily replace his utility with someone else
- Ethan Roberts — I think this is a last resort thing but I only put him here because he had so little MLB playing time despite showing flashes of solid play before he hurt his arm, that the Cubs might be able to retain him even if he got waived and outrighted and/or DFA, but AZ Phil did note that he has the right to refuse an outright so this is really just a “maybe” type listing
All told we are looking at an additional 4 to 8 spots cleared up before Rule 5, free agent additions, trades, etc. I do think the Cubs want to keep a couple spots open for drafting Rule 5 guys if they are available and signing early free agents, but they do have to protect some guys for sure. And because AZ Phil is awesome, he did update the Rule 5 eligibles list. So let’s start listing guys to protect, assuming at most 32 spots on the roster and 8 spots available:
No-Brainers
- Brennen Davis
- Kevin Alcantara
Most Likely
- Ben Brown
Toss-up due to their lack of higher level experience, but could potentially be drafted anyway
- Luis Devers
- Yohendrick Pinango
- Cam Sanders
Obviously the rules are meant to make sure minor leaguers don’t wallow in the minors forever, and the negotiations for a collectively bargained MiLB contract are underway to hopefully offer them better protections even accounting for that lapse in Rule 5 Drafts. So some guys on AZ Phil’s list are likely to remain unprotected and the front office will leave their fates up to the baseball transaction gods. I don’t envy Jed Hoyer and friends here, and it is very unlikely that trades are used now to resolve this so close to Tuesday’s deadline.
So we will take a wait-and-see approach.
Comments
As if by kismet, Callis thinks Kohl Franklin will also be a tough call
https://www.mlb.com/news/toughest-rule-5-draft-decisions-for-each-team?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Could the counting issue be one where the Cubs are already counting Heyward off the roster even if they haven’t completed the paperwork yet?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
A lot of other blogs plus Sahadev Sharma said even if they assume Heyward is gone it would be at 33 so there’s a transaction that I think either I missed or they forgot to report
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Thanks, RC. Veterans Day was a pretty dark and ambivalent time for me for a few years, and this year’s has felt a bit better.
PerkinsQuote Reply
The foundation for the “we were in on all the big shortstops” alibi has been laid.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Apparently a couple of bounceback candidate CFs too
I hope if the Cubs fuck this up that the fans hold them accountable during the Convention all the way through Spring Training and into Opening Day #HeadsOnPikes
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Happy birthday to Cubs legend Sammy Sosa and his hop. Sammy had his issues but remains the main reason I even cheer for this ludicrous team.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I believe this is the main reason so many Cubs fans resent him. (dying laughing)
andcountingQuote Reply
WGN is the only reason I ever become a Cubs fan. Home sick one day, nothing on tv so I turned it to a Cubs game. I already was a big baseball fan. I played it as much as I could and had for as long as I can remember because of my brother and as soon as I watched a few Cubs games, I was hooked. Sammy came along over a decade after that and for a time he was without a doubt the only reason to watch this team unless you lucked into catching them when Kerry Wood wasn’t injured. He became my favorite player and probably still is.
dmick89Quote Reply
We are probably fucked in two years but I think we should all thank a kid for temporarily saving democracy
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
Same, except WGN played a bigger role in making me love baseball when I was 6/7. Preempted Underdog and Tennessee Tuxedo, but I got over it.
andcountingQuote Reply
I’m in GenX but I work with Millennials and GenZ all the time. While some of the negative stereotypes of Millennials drive me nuts, overall I trust them far more than I do GenX and the remains of the Boomers. That’s particularly true of GenZ, whose social conscience I admire. Not sure they can manage money though.
Divorce and Reagan really messed up GenX.
BVSQuote Reply
Atlanta has been pretty good at extending their young players but I’ve never heard any rumors of them trying to extend him before this fall. It’s not hard for me to imagine him falling into the category of “good defensive middle infielder who had 1-2 yr of decent offense and is now way overpaid” in 2024.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
We talking about Dansby?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Yes
BVSQuote Reply
No Giants go away https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/giants-interested-in-kodai-senga.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Start fantasizing about what pitchers the Cubs may snag while fearing what the Rays might steal in return
https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1591996088525164544?t=HA0V_Gl3eHj6_E9O0_M3hg&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rookie of the Year winners announced tonight, methinks guys like Morel and Seiya will receive down ballot votes but probably not too many more (maybe one of the pitchers)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Bryan at BN had a few more names for consideration for Rule 5 consideration, which mostly match what I’ve thrown against the wall, so I guess I’m not a complete idiot
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/14/2022-cubs-rule-5-protection-decisions-ten-more-cubs-prospects-to-think-about/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I do have an irrational dislike of the Miami baseball club for probably quite obvious reasons, but their org is about to be headed by two women so I hope the cheapskate owners give them what they actually need to be successful
https://twitter.com/Marlins/status/1592171544452943874?t=AGXTcdVce7bZUNftZbY5jA&s=19
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs are playing every team in 2023 so here’s to counting down until Spring Training in late February…
https://www.mlb.com/cubs/schedule/2023-02
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I forgot how slow baseball news was this time of year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jason Heyward has free time now.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I probably would be a terrible MLB player, not just because I suck, but because I’d probably just sit and watch TV while soaking up the $22MM or whatever I was owed even if I wasn’t playing
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
Ken Rosenthal on the Athletic podcast suggested a trade deadline during the Winter Meetings to at least spur some action
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
That’s a really great idea.
dmick89Quote Reply
Kyle Hendricks is apparently doing the Driveline thing to try to increase velocity, which seems dumb to me given his recent injury history and his age, but I’m also not an expert nor am I that kind of doctor
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
It kind of makes sense on the surface because since it coincides with the rostering and tender deadlines, it allows the bulk of the roster to be set before they even have to consider free agents, and it also lets the bulk of players know where they have to be for Opening Day so they don’t have to stress. Since MLBPA probably would never go for a free agency deadline, getting most of the ducks in a row would allow the front offices to have more focus on where to throw all that money.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m gonna say that if a team like Texas can spend an assload of money on Simien and Seager last season, the Cubs can outcompete for their target shortstop if they actually wanted to, despite all this doomsday talk on what remains of Twitter re: potentially being cheap.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I don’t think there’s any doubt the Cubs can outspend most other teams. If they want to. I’d doubt they would, but at some point you’ve got the stop the bleeding of the tv audience, don’t you?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Being a mere peasant, I have no idea how large chunks of business money works, I just assume they’ll declare bankruptcy and sell to some other rich bastard
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I assume we will have a lot of DFAs tomorrow prior to adds for protecting prospects but amazing how many teams are still full up to the gills
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Julio Rodriguez and Michael Harris II win AL & NL ROY respectively. No Cubs downballot but they can’t really vote for more than their top 3 choices so that made sense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, the big question to me is if they’ll spend to get better or spend to look better. I’m assuming they’ll attempt to do the first, but they’re going to at least go through the motions. I think the Stroman signing was more of a PR move than a baseball move. The lockout last winter imposed that false deadline and the Cubs were feeling it. They had to look like they were trying. And I’m sure that’s why they pursued Suzuki so hard and Senga this offseason. Those signings bring in new audiences and new markets. I’m getting the sense Jed’s job is to make sure the flashy, face-saving moves they make to appease the masses are at least tenable from a baseball perspective.
andcountingQuote Reply
The Mariners have committed to the innuendo
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
I wish the bulk of Cubs fans were as not-dumb* as us, but unfortunately they’ll probably be able to get away with doing the sleight of wallet trick
*I don’t think I’m that smart but I can kind of see when someone is trying to pull a fast one, see?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So yeah, teams are just gonna wait till the last goddamn minute (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Royals broke the ice
Rice CubeQuote Reply
And as the beginning of the end, Willson will reject the QO and is likely gone https://twitter.com/JesseRogersESPN/status/1592563020407967745
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess part of the silence on the roster front is because the Cubs are trying to do a trade(s):
https://twitter.com/maddie_m_lee/status/1592587057968590849
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think the Cubs might have traded for this guy
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mastro000mil
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Trade is official, I do not object
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Qualifying offer decisions in since the deadline was like 10 minutes ago:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rizzo beat the QO and then some so good for him
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rizzo could have the best year in awhile next season. Whatever analytics might say about the shift being inconsequential, it has killed him.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Yankee Stadium is pretty nice for him too
berseliusQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
He’s an ultra-utility guy, looks like. SS/2B/3B/LF/CF/RF.
andcountingQuote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing), I just tweeted that. It’s a perfect spot for him, especially if Judge stays and he’s in the scary part of that lineup.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Dude can hit, it seems
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
If/when Willson does sign elsewhere, Kyle Hendricks will be the last man standing from 2016
https://twitter.com/M_Montemurro/status/1592634072576438272
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Meghan broke it first per my feed, guess I was only sorta right
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New shit now that the Cubs said stuff –> http://www.obstructedview.net/roster-check-in-advance-of-rule-5-and-free-agent-additions-if-any/
Rice CubeQuote Reply