Three games doesn’t tell us anything, but they were three predictable games. The offense struggled, which they’re going to do all season long. That’s especially true against right-handed pitchers. The defense let the team down late in Sunday’s game. Rather than a tie, a defensive mistake allowed the Pirates to take the lead. The pitching staff was solid, which they mostly will be this season. The Cubs made at least one mistake on the bases and nearly one or two others. That’s going to happen a lot this season too.
I didn’t single any player out because I don’t think it’s important. People say it’s a team game and it is even though we can measure the individual contributions of each player. Three games in there’s no reason to single anyone out for mistakes. The point I’m making is that the Cubs played about as well as we can expect them to play this season. At least in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. Strength: pitching. Weakness: everything else. That’s how it was this weekend and that’s how it will be much of the season.
Starlin Castro is fun to watch. I’d forgotten just how much fun. It’s obviously more fun when he collects 8 hits in 3 games as well as a walk. He showed more power in spring training and he’s shown the ability to drive the ball a bit more so far this season. Don’t go expecting 25 home runs like And Counting is or you’re likely to find yourself booing him at some point. If he does hit 25 I’ll pretend I agreed with AC about the 25 home run prediction. It will make me seem smarter that way.
He’s not a finished player, but he’s still the youngest player in the game.
The top three starters for the Cubs lost two of three games vs the top three of the Pirates. That’s probably not a good sign, but it’s also not exactly their fault. When you score 7 runs in the two losses combined, you can’t expect to win too many ballgames. You’re certainly going to lose more than you win.
How many more times do we have to hear about Carlos Pena saving errors? Is he the only 1st baseman who scoops balls out of the dirt? Isn’t that kind of important for 1st basemen? I’m betting that the ones who struggle at picking it out of the dirt are the ones who find themselves in AAA for a long time. It’s part of the job. Maybe Pena is better than the average player. I can buy that, but this talk about him saving X number of errors is irrelevant unless you’re going to tell me how many errors the average 1st baseman saves.
I’m all for Darwin Barney playing 2nd base. May as well see what he has. Play him every day. I’m not expecting much. In fact, I expect he’ll be sent to AAA by the end of May. Play Colvin every day too. That’s what I’d do. However, if the Cubs want to win games, you platoon Tyler Colvin and Alfonso Soriano, not Fukudome and Colvin. You platoon Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker, not Baker and Barney.
Marlon Byrd batting 3rd doesn’t bother me. That’s the least important spot in the top 5 spots in the lineup according to the extensive research in The Book. That seems a good spot for him. Speaking of Marlon Byrd, he’s been awful since the middle of last season.
It’s nice to see Alfonso Soriano come through. I always like that because I fear he’s going to get booed out of the stadium if he doesn’t. And when he doesn’t, he usually is booed out of the ballpark.
Carlos Zambrano left with cramps on Saturday. It’s a problem he’s had throughout his career. It seems to me that Z has something that’s causing that. Even if it isn’t, big deal. He was ready to come out of the game anyway so it doesn’t really matter.
Matt Garza allowed 12 hits, struckout 12 and walked nobody in 7 innings. If that’s happened before, it hasn’t happened often. Most of the hits were seeing eye grounders. Overall, he had a really good first start and it was easily the best of the three so far.
I’m glad Kerry Wood is wearing a Cubs uniform again. I just wish he’d be wearing the Cubs uniform while playing for the Yankees or Red Sox. I’d like to see Wood win a championship and I’m afraid that’s not happening for him with the Cubs.
Carlos Marmol remains the up and down pitcher we’re used to seeing. One day he looks like he’s literally the best relief pitcher not named Mariano Rivera. The next day is a different story.
The Cubs play 3 at home vs the Diamondbacks before hitting the road. They have Randy Wells pitching tomorrow afternoon followed by Andrew Cashner and Ryan Dempster. I’m excited to watch Cashner pitch in the rotation. A quick look at the probables shows the Cubs probably have the pitching advantage in at least 2 of those games (Wells and Dempster). No idea as far as Tuesday’s game goes.
Comments
The X number of errors stuff is dumb, but I think Pena has looked noticeably good at 1b anyway. Lee has a rep as a good defensive 1b but IIRC he’s only been average the past few years.
BerseliusQuote Reply
My conversations with Mish suggest that the #3 guy is supposed to have good SLG, which Byrd doesn’t really display…who else would be a good candidate for #3 spot?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Whoa, I love this ADR table they added on fangraphs
BerseliusQuote Reply
Is Byrd the 5th best hitter in the lineup vs RHP? I think Soriano is proably still better.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Slugging has more value at 3, and discipline is slightly less valuable. So Colvin or Soriano would be the ideal candidates.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Slugging has more value at 3, and discipline is slightly less valuable. So Colvin or Soriano would be the ideal candidates.[/quote]
SOME discipline would be nice though (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]SOME discipline would be nice though (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
Some average speed on display here: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13446801
GBTSQuote Reply
I think it’s funny how this series could be a microcosm of what we expected this season: a team that has some talent, but has enough black holes such that things must go perfectly for them to win consistently. We’re back to the Lighting in a Bottle Era of 1998-2002.
mvainQuote Reply
[quote name=mvain]I think it’s funny how this series could be a microcosm of what we expected this season: a team that has some talent, but has enough black holes such that things must go perfectly for them to win consistently. We’re back to the Lighting in a Bottle Era of 1998-2002.[/quote]
This team has more talent than those teams. I mean, we make fun of Reed Johnson and such, but the 2000 team had 5 guys who made 175 plate appearances or more who had negative WAR – Jose Nieves, Glenallen Hill, Henry Rodriguez, Gary Matthews Jr. and Shane Andrews. Then there are 3 more who were at less than 1 WAR – Jeff Reed, Willie Greene, and Damon Buford. Buford got over 500 plate appearances. That is just awful.
But yes, they are not consistently good enough to overcome mistakes and they make many, many mistakes.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Don’t forget Farnsworth’s stellar -1.2 WAR in just 77 innings.
GBTSQuote Reply
Man, Damon Buford had a hard time as a Cub. That just did not go well at all.
AndCountingQuote Reply
There was really no excuse for not winning the game today. The Pirates handed it to us. First of all, how do you let Reed Johnson bat vs a RHP when you have Fukudome chilling on your bench? That’s just obnoxious.
Secondly,Darwin Barney hitting second, really?
Third, 1st and 3rd with one out and a struggling Marlon Byrd up to bat, how do you not have him bunt? The dude is and always has been a GB machine. He also isn’t a power guy, so he’s not likely to hit one deep enough that Castro scores.
Fourth, Castro at least gets a lead if he starts at third and runs on the bunt, from the OF he has to start touching the base and it’s fairly well documented he’s got good top speed but isn’t a fast starter (hence his average time from Home to 1B but great time from 1B to 3B).
It just makes no sense, the one time it makes sense to bunt we don’t. That’s ridiculous.
As for Marmol, he didn’t pitch nearly as bad today as this makes it sound. He was bad on the first hitter, but after that, eh, he was pretty good. A weak as hell line drive over the 2″ tall Barney. Then a bunch of weak crap in the IF. He got screwed over more by luck than by himself today.
DoogolasQuote Reply
See also, Matt Garza.
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Cubs lost the game but I don’t really feel that bad about it. Disappointed, sure, but I ended up feeling generally better about the team afterwords.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Disappointed, sure, but I ended up feeling generally better about the team afterwords.[/quote]What words were those?
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]What words were those?[/quote]
(dying laughing). I guess it’s better than feeling better after setting up a security perimeter around my house
/lame pun
BerseliusQuote Reply
I have to disagree with having Byrd bunt with a runner at third and less than two outs. I don’t think it is asking too much to have a veteran player go up and hit a ball into the outfield somehow. Generally that means finding a pitch to hit in the air, and that usually means not swinging at the first pitch.
I haven’t gone back to watch the last pitch location, but if it was elevated and Byrd just didn’t get a good swing on the ball, then chalk it up to poor execution. If he swung at a low pitch intended to induce a groundball, then he needs to know better. But either way, he shouldn’t be handing the Pirates an out by bunting.
Aisle424Quote Reply
BTW, I like the changing W and L flags. I assume MB did that.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I have to disagree with having Byrd bunt with a runner at third and less than two outs. I don’t think it is asking too much to have a veteran player go up and hit a ball into the outfield somehow. Generally that means finding a pitch to hit in the air, and that usually means not swinging at the first pitch.
I haven’t gone back to watch the last pitch location, but if it was elevated and Byrd just didn’t get a good swing on the ball, then chalk it up to poor execution. If he swung at a low pitch intended to induce a groundball, then he needs to know better. But either way, he shouldn’t be handing the Pirates an out by bunting.[/quote]
But it really is asking a lot from Byrd. He’s just not a fly ball hitter. Look at his career numbers, and he’d have to have hit it at least pretty deep, it’s not like Castro is Jose Reyes.
Secondly, asking him to hit a FB is simply far less likely than him getting down a safety squeeze, I mean, I get that everybody loves sabermetrics, I do too, but there is a FAR more likely chance Byrd goes up and gets down a successful safety squeeze than him hitting a pretty deep flyball to to the outfield. That’s just not his thing. He’s not a FB hitter, he is a groundball hitter.
Sometimes, handing an out isn’t stupid. You have a limited amount, but the odds were in the Pirates favor that he’d put one on the ground. There is a 50% chance Byrd puts the ball into the dirt if he puts it in play, I believe grounders are hits about 24% of the time, which means the chances of him giving them a decent shot at a DP were 38% and only 12% that he gets a hit if he put the ball in play.
That’s a pretty damn high number and not the guy you want trying to put one into the outfield in that situation. You’re giving up an out there, but you’re tying the game and ensuring yourself a chance at more innings, plus giving the heart of your order a chance to win the game with a single.
His FB/LD% is about 50% as well then. Breaking it up it’s about 18 and 32, FB’s are I think .120 for hits and LD’s are about .72, so 13% chance he gets a line drive that falls for a hit, any that doesn’t I would say isn’t going to score the runner because they’re generally very quick and it allows the fielder to react before the baserunner, plus it likely won’t be deep at all.
Now to fly balls, there’s about a 3% chance he hits a fly ball that lands for a hit. So now we can add that. Then let’s say half of the other fly balls would score the runner from third, I think that’s a pretty reasonable estimate, so that’s 17.5% both ways.
From that, it’s reasonable to guess that Byrd had about about a 44.5% chance of putting a ball in play and scoring the runner from third base.
I’d be willing to bet a bunt has a far higher likelihood of scoring the runner than 44.5%. And that’s assuming he puts it in play at all. A 7% better chance that he scores the runner than ends the game isn’t one I like, that’s one of the very few times where you most definitely do your best to make sure a run scores any way you can get it. He does K about 17% of the time.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I would be fine with it, as long as it didn’t set up Castro to have Barney and then Byrd right after him.
Also, Bobby Valentine is an idiot.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]But it really is asking a lot from Byrd. He’s just not a fly ball hitter. Look at his career numbers, and he’d have to have hit it at least pretty deep, it’s not like Castro is Jose Reyes.
Secondly, asking him to hit a FB is simply far less likely than him getting down a safety squeeze, I mean, I get that everybody loves sabermetrics, I do too, but there is a FAR more likely chance Byrd goes up and gets down a successful safety squeeze than him hitting a pretty deep flyball to to the outfield. That’s just not his thing. He’s not a FB hitter, he is a groundball hitter.
Sometimes, handing an out isn’t stupid. You have a limited amount, but the odds were in the Pirates favor that he’d put one on the ground. There is a 50% chance Byrd puts the ball into the dirt if he puts it in play, I believe grounders are hits about 24% of the time, which means the chances of him giving them a decent shot at a DP were 38% if he put the ball in play.
That’s a pretty damn high number and not the guy you want trying to put one into the outfield in that situation. You’re giving up an out there, but you’re tying the game and ensuring yourself a chance at more innings, plus giving the heart of your order a chance to win the game with a single.[/quote]
FWIW, if Byrd is batting third he IS the heart of the order. I also think it’s a lot easier for a player to simply hit a fly ball than it is for a player to try to get a hit.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Does anyone have an idea if Byrd is worth anything as a bunter?
BerseliusQuote Reply
If Byrd is such a double play risk, then it’s on Quade to maybe get a hit-and-run going. The fact that Byrd hacked at the first pitch doesn’t allow for much gamesmanship between the managers, but bunting wasn’t the only way to stay out of the double-play.
I don’t know the numbers, but I would need to be pretty fucking sure a bunt would get the run home and based on what I see over time from baseball players bunting, I’m never that sure about a bunt going down well.
Byrd could have popped up a bunt or bunted it right back to the pitcher for a double play (or at least a force play that keeps the runner at third). If the odds of getting a runner home from third with less than two outs could be most effectively accomplished by bunting, I have to assume we’d see it happen a heck of a lot more than we do. But I don’t have the numbers, so that is just my opinion.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]FWIW, if Byrd is batting third he IS the heart of the order. I also think it’s a lot easier for a player to simply hit a fly ball than it is for a player to try to get a hit.[/quote][quote name=Berselius]Does anyone have an idea if Byrd is worth anything as a bunter?[/quote]
It might be, but Byrd just isn’t a candidate. Vs RHP for his career his GB% is 49.9% and was 55.7% last year.
he has 12 sac bunts in his career.
DoogolasQuote Reply
I missed the game today. Enjoyed the nice spring air instead, so my opinions are just from the recaps/box score and following gamecast/twitter on my phone.
Understanding DIPS makes a game like today so much easier to take. If Garza pitches like he did today, the Cubs will win 9 times out of 10. Well, maybe not that much because the offense is so putrid, but you all get the idea.
It sounds like even Marmol didn’t really pitch that bad either.
I completely agree that this first series played out almost exactly as expected. The only thing that has bothered me is that Quade has had more head-scratching moves than I would like out of the gate. Otherwise, I love how well Castro is hitting the ball, and Pena and Ramirez look like they are seeing the ball well and might have bounceback seasons.
Still only good for fourth place probably. But, we already knew that.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]If Byrd is such a double play risk, then it’s on Quade to maybe get a hit-and-run going. The fact that Byrd hacked at the first pitch doesn’t allow for much gamesmanship between the managers, but bunting wasn’t the only way to stay out of the double-play.
I don’t know the numbers, but I would need to be pretty fucking sure a bunt would get the run home and based on what I see over time from baseball players bunting, I’m never that sure about a bunt going down well.
Byrd could have popped up a bunt or bunted it right back to the pitcher for a double play (or at least a force play that keeps the runner at third). If the odds of getting a runner home from third with less than two outs could be most effectively accomplished by bunting, I have to assume we’d see it happen a heck of a lot more than we do. But I don’t have the numbers, so that is just my opinion.[/quote]
If the odds of the bunt getting down scoring the runner are 50% it was the smart move. I’d be stunned if those weren’t solid odds.
Furthermore, Fukudome was still chilling in the dugout doing nothing.
And if you’re giving Byrd the go ahead to swing at the first pitch, you should indeed hit and run immediately. That was another thing that annoyed me about this game.
I also felt Barney should have attempted to get to 2B, even with the late break because it would have been a really long throw and I would be stunned if Castro wouldn’t have made it home if they chose to throw to 2B to try to get Barney.
There were a lot of very stupid things going on. But I know damn well Fukudome can get down a bunt, and I’d be very surprised if Byrd couldn’t do it at least 50% of the time. And if he didn’t, there’s probably no more than a good 10% chance it’s a double play. Bunts work a lot more than you’d think. But letting Byrd swing away there is begging for a double play, he is a ground ball hitter.
DoogolasQuote Reply
FWIW, Fukudome’s career GB rate is 48.7%, Marlon Byrd’s is 47.8%. Though at least Kosuke would have the platoon advantage.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]FWIW, Fukudome’s career GB rate is 48.7%, Marlon Byrd’s is 47.8%. Though at least Kosuke would have the platoon advantage.[/quote]That was what I was going for, the platoon advantage, and the knowledge that I know Kosuke can bunt.
DoogolasQuote Reply
It looks like Byrd has only 28 bunts in his 8+ year career.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Kosuke should have been up to lead off the inning anyway (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Kosuke should have been up to lead off the inning anyway (dying laughing)[/quote]
Yeah, as soon as they surrendered the lead there was no reason to not use Fukudome, although someone did say that Kosuke was 0-for-6 against the pitcher at the time.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah, as soon as they surrendered the lead there was no reason to not use Fukudome, although someone did say that Kosuke was 0-for-6 against the pitcher at the time.[/quote]
The curse of Ari Kaplan strikes again
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m just disappointed Starlin didn’t hit a homer. The road to 25 starts with 1, kid.
Also, the Pirates showed all day that it pays to hit the ball off the end of the bat, off the hands, break a bat, or anything like that. It’s all these hard hit ground balls that end up as double plays.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Kosuke should have been up to lead off the inning anyway (dying laughing)[/quote]
God yes. Reed Johnon should never hit vs a RHP ever. Let alone one that throws 100MPH.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I’m just disappointed Starlin didn’t hit a homer. The road to 25 starts with 1, kid.
Also, the Pirates showed all day that it pays to hit the ball off the end of the bat, off the hands, break a bat, or anything like that. It’s all these hard hit ground balls that end up as double plays.[/quote]It was pretty obnoxious how lucky they were today. They didn’t earn a single run. Even against Marmol, none of the balls were hit hard, the line drive looked like a bloody nerf ball floating to RF. And every other hit was a nubber. Uggggh.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Where’s the win expectancy chart on the internet? I kind of want to know how often a team is expected to win a game with a one-run lead in the ninth inning and no outs. Is there an interactive thingy that will allow me to plug in a situation and it’ll spit out a percentage?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Where’s the win expectancy chart on the internet? I kind of want to know how often a team is expected to win a game with a one-run lead in the ninth inning and no outs. Is there an interactive thingy that will allow me to plug in a situation and it’ll spit out a percentage?[/quote]edit: nevermind, the excerpt from the book online is just the 6th inning
BerseliusQuote Reply
According to fangraphs the Cubs had a 24.1% chance to win
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]According to fagetgraphs the Cubs had a 24.1% chance to win[/quote]
Fixed.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Where’s the win expectancy chart on the internet? I kind of want to know how often a team is expected to win a game with a one-run lead in the ninth inning and no outs. Is there an interactive thingy that will allow me to plug in a situation and it’ll spit out a percentage?[/quote]
When Marmol took the mound in the 9th, the Cubs had a 82.8% chance of winning. Does that mean that in the past X years that they were calculating and tabulating this stuff, if an NL team is winning at home in the 9th inning by one run, they have a 82.8% chance of winning the game?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]When Marmol took the mound in the 9th, the Cubs had a 82.8% chance of winning. Does that mean that in the past X years that they were calculating and tabulating this stuff, if an NL team is winning at home in the 9th inning by one run, they have a 82.8% chance of winning the game?[/quote]
It means that it happens 82.8% of the time.
Though it’s also possible that at the start of any given inning a tam has a 17.2% chance of scoring a run plus the small bonus for being the home team.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]It means that it happens 82.8% of the time.
Though it’s also possible that at the start of any given inning a tam has a 17.2% chance of scoring a run plus the small bonus for being the home team.[/quote]
So in this case the win expectancy is context-neutral and it doesn’t matter of it’s Marmol or some AAA reject on the mound?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]So in this case the win expectancy is context-neutral and it doesn’t matter of it’s Marmol or some AAA reject on the mound?[/quote]
Yeah, it’s context neutral.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]BTW, I like the changing W and L flags. I assume MB did that.[/quote]I figured it was as good an idea as any. At least until the Cubs are out of contention and I stop caring about the games anyway. I have to find a different L flag to use. I had to edit that one by expanding the width, but not the height so it’s a little distorted.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t think Marmol pitched poorly yesterday, but he put himself in a shitty situation by walking the leadoff guy. He’s gotten a little lucky over the years and has gotten away with that stuff because of his unsustainable home run per fly ball rate. Sooner or later it’s going to bite him in the ass.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]When Marmol took the mound in the 9th, the Cubs had a 82.8% chance of winning. Does that mean that in the past X years that they were calculating and tabulating this stuff, if an NL team is winning at home in the 9th inning by one run, they have a 82.8% chance of winning the game?[/quote]Yes. In those situations over the last X years (not sure how many Fangraphs uses), the home team leading by 1 entering the 9th won 82.8% of the time.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]It looks like Byrd has only 28 bunts in his 8+ year career.[/quote]I don’t know that the number of bunts in a game really tells us that much. I’m not arguing for or against a bunt. As far as the skill of the hitter in terms of bunting, I feel better leaving that to the manager. These guys work on bunts every single day so he’s going to spot ones who are particularly good or bad at it.
mb21Quote Reply
Why does Castro have to start the season so awesomely every year? I fear the let down.
I looked over at BCB this morning (truly, indeed, a sad life, I must lead), and they’ve got him batting third and calling him the team’s best hitter. Amazingly, none of them (including Al) even mentioned the rookie mistake that put the Pirates ahead. Why get so high on someone you’re going to be booing as soon as he has a slump? Why expect a young player to be the best on the team because of a good first series?
Al dumping all over Marmol seemed a little pointless, too. But then what did I expect?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Is this Prof involved at all with the Statfag community on the inter-tubes? The article tells shit all about his methodology.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2011/0402/It-s-in-the-stats-Red-Sox-will-win-101-games
cdwQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I figured it was as good an idea as any. At least until the Cubs are out of contention and I stop caring about the games anyway.[/quote]So be thinking of other ideas. We’ve got about a week or two.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]So be thinking of other ideas. We’ve got about a week or two.[/quote]Don’t tell him what to do.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Don’t tell him what to do.[/quote](dying laughing), that was more a general statement to everyone. I need to stop telling everyone what to do. But am I allowed to presume to tell you how to be a fan?
AndCountingQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/4/4/2089385/top-10-baseball-commercials-of-all-time
MishQuote Reply
On the Cubs: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/know-hope/
MishQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
New: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/previews/series-preview-arizona-diamondbacks-1-1-at-chicago-cubs-1-2.html
BerseliusQuote Reply