Brett on Bleacher Nation has done a fantastic job rounding up the Theo rumors over the past week. It’s been one of the few sites I even bother to check for info. It’s something that would drive most people mad seeing as how conflicting the reports are. The only quibble I have with any of the reporting has been how the Chicago media and their fans have tried to pin the delay on the Sox.
When the negotiating began we expected the Red Sox to ask for Starlin Castro and Wrigley Field. Instead, it appears they only asked for Matt Garza, which was a hell of a lot less than I thought they would. We expected the Cubs to offer someone like Matt Camp. Instead, they seemed to have offered cash, which is considerably more than I expected. That’s how negotiations work. You offer as little as possible and move toward the center.
From the Cubs perspective, there’s no reason whatsoever to pay a penny more than you have. As a result, you offer the least amount possible when the negotiation begins. You then begin to offer more and eventually settle on something more reasonable.
It’s the exact opposite for the Red Sox perspective. They’re asking for billions in value and will come down to something more reasonable.
Factor in that there is discussion about who Theo can and can’t take with him from the Red Sox organization, and how it may even be part of the compensation discussion, you can see how it would take a lot of time.
People seem to be under the illusion that the two sides are in constant contact with one another. I get the impression some think there are 187 phone calls per day going back and forth, but when you consider the number of people you’d need to consult with, it’s quite likely there is only 1 call each day between the owners. My guess is that it is a very civil discussion and they exchange some names and work toward getting a deal done. They hang up and Tom calls his guys. His guys call their guys and their guys call them back and Tom’s guys call Tom back and we’re at dinner time. Tom thinks it over, maybe calls one back and they get back to one another at 10 pm before bed. The same thing happens in Boston.
There’s still no reason to think the deal will fall through. What are the Red Sox going to do with Theo if this deal doesn’t go through? They’ve already appointed a GM and even if they get a take-back, it would be the second time it’s happened to Cherrington. He’d be none too pleased and may even walk out the door. The Red Sox can’t risk that. Are they going to employ a GM who doesn’t even want to be there? Some have said they could just demote him to some irrelevant role, but are we even sure they can do that? Theo and the Sox do have a contract with one another. That contract states that Theo Epstein is the General Manager of the Red Sox. I’m sure these guys who sign these contracts are smart enough to put some kind of clause in there that does not allow for them to be demoted. It’s probably why it has never happened as far as I know.
So the Red Sox may very well be left with the option of firing him. If they do that, he’s available to the Cubs for no compensation other than the salary Theo would get.
This is why I don’t buy that the Red Sox have all the leverage. They certainly do have some leverage. Theo is their employee so they obviously have some leverage, but this has gone so far that there is no turning back. Taking Theo back as GM would undoubtedly piss some front office people off. Some of them would certainly leave their job. Some guys already promised promotions aren’t going to accept a demotion without a fight. Some will leave. Maybe even the guy they have pegged as the future GM. The team has spent a lot of time trying to make sure that their front office is taken care of if Theo leaves and this is about the worst thing they could do to ensure that.
There’s no way the Red Sox are going to allow that to happen. They may very well be in violation of the contract if they demote Theo in some way leaving Theo to sign with the Cubs for no compensation.
Not to mention, both teams stand to lose a considerable amount if this falls through. Tom Ricketts is going to be the guy who couldn’t get a deal done for the best GM in the game. It was right there and the difference between Theo in Chicago and elsewhere was some measly prospect who may or may not be any good. John Henry has already taken a beating and there’s so much more to harp on there, but seeing several front office people leave with Theo back would be yet another disaster. There would be no way Theo would re-sign beyond the one year remaining on his contract. The Red Sox will be seen as the team that stood in the way of a person’s professional advancement. Others won’t be eager to work for the Sox because of that.
Both sides have leverage here. The Cubs want to pay as little as possible to the Sox to get Theo and the Sox want as much as possible. There are a lot of little things to work out. This kind of transaction doesn’t happen quickly and there’s no reason to rush into it. If Ricketts had rushed into this he’d have given the Red Sox Matt Garza. By taking his time that is out of the question and so apparently is Brett Jackson. Now Ricketts is trying to make it out of the question that they get Trey McNutt. Maybe he succeeds. Maybe not. Either way, it’s exactly what you want to see here.
Give this some time. I’d like it to be done so we can move on to more important business, but I don’t want the Cubs to pay any more than they have to. It’s difficult to believe any announcement would come today. Tom Ricketts would presumably like to introduce Theo at Wrigley Field and all reports still have Theo in Boston. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which a deal gets done quickly today and Theo flies to Chicago to be introduced as the new GM. I don’t know how much of an issue Selig would have with the Cubs announcing it tomorrow afternoon prior to the start of the World Series. That’s more likely than today, but if Selig doesn’t want it then it’s probably not going to be finalized until after the World Series. My guess is that it won’t be finalized until after the World Series. It’s not that big of a deal. What pressing business matters do the Cubs have that can’t wait 10 days?
Comments
Good post sir.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do.
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLiQuote Reply
Did Al Davis come back from the dead to make this Carson Palmer trade?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Did Al Davis come back from the dead to make this Carson Palmer trade?[/quote]2 first rounders? For what exactly??
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]2 first rounders? For what exactly??[/quote]
Seriously. If they wanted to get an overrated QB and still miss the playoffs, they could have just signed Garrard and kept the picks.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Seriously. If they wanted to get an overrated QB and still miss the playoffs, they could have just signed Garrard and kept the picks.[/quote]Although the deal is still as officially official as Theo –> Cubs right?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Seriously. If they wanted to get an overrated QB and still miss the playoffs, they could have just signed Garrard and kept the picks.[/quote]
garrard is having back surgery this week
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]garrard is having back surgery this week[/quote]
(dying laughing), that would make him an even more perfect Raiders signing
BerseliusQuote Reply
Zack Greinke’s wife is disproportionately hot.
http://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/zack-greinkes-wife-was-not-happy-with-her-nlcs-seats-in-st-louis/92913
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]2 first rounders? For what exactly??[/quote]This puts pressure on the Cubs to get the Theo deal done fast. If Carson Palmer is worth two #1 draft picks, Theo is certainly worth a whole lot of McNutts.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Zack Greinke’s wife is disproportionately hot.
http://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/zack-greinkes-wife-was-not-happy-with-her-nlcs-seats-in-st-louis/92913%5B/quote%5D$$$
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Here’s Bojan’s study on catcher blocking: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/
Apparently, Soto had a good year behind the plate.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Zack Greinke’s wife is disproportionately hot.
http://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/zack-greinkes-wife-was-not-happy-with-her-nlcs-seats-in-st-louis/92913%5B/quote%5DThat's very surprising. I expected an average looking chick. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Here’s Bojan’s study on catcher blocking: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/
Apparently, Soto had a good year behind the plate.[/quote]Despite a “down” year Soto was still worth about 2 WAR which kind of surprised me when I looked it up. Seems dWAR didn’t like Koyie Hill very much.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t find it surprising; he’s a catcher who hits for power, after all.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]This puts pressure on the Cubs to get the Theo deal done fast. If Carson Palmer is worth two #1 draft picks, Theo is certainly worth a whole lot of McNutts.[/quote]The Cubs could sign the Hawkyes Marvin McNutt and then trade both their McNutts for Epstein.
mb21Quote Reply
Why are people so surprised about Greinke’s wife? He’s a multimillionaire Cy Young winner.
ACTQuote Reply
Marvin McNutt is a lefty
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Why are people so surprised about Greinke’s wife? He’s a multimillionaire Cy Young winner.[/quote]I don’t think anybody is surprised.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Why are people so surprised about Greinke’s wife? He’s a multimillionaire Cy Young winner.[/quote]He was also probably really good at baseball back in the day as this is supposedly his high school sweetheart.
Looking at those catcher rankings for blocking pitches, it’s kind of amusing to find one Molina brother at the top while two Molina brothers are towards the bottom.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Marvin McNutt is a lefty[/quote]That makes much more sense. I think people are generally much more inclined to give their lefty McNutts for stuff.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]That makes much more sense. I think people are generally much more inclined to give their lefty McNutts for stuff.[/quote]I think the left one usually hangs lower and so is riper for the picking.
/anatomy’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Are you saying that super hot females are attracted to guys with a lot of athletic ability/achievement?
Damn, that explains a lot…
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://hotchickswithdouchebags.com/
Though I have no idea whether Zack Greinke is a douchebag.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
The Raiders don’t have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 7th round pick in the 2012 draft.
GBTSQuote Reply
I honestly think the Raiders could have gotten Tony Romo for that price.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://hotchickswithdouchebags.com/
Though I have no idea whether Zack Greinke is a douchebag.[/quote]He’s always struck me as a nice enough guy. It’s impossible to get an accurate impression from TV spots an interviews, though.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]He’s always struck me as a nice enough guy. It’s impossible to get an accurate impression from TV spots an interviews, though.[/quote]Joe Posnanski usually speaks favorably of Greinke so I think I would trust Joe’s judgment.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t think Jay Cutler likes Mike Martz:
http://espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/7116204/chicago-bears-mike-martz-experiment-end
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That’s just good, thorough reporting.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think Jay Cutler likes Mike Martz:
http://espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/7116204/chicago-bears-mike-martz-experiment-end%5B/quote%5D
GBTSQuote Reply
Does Martz coach on the sidelines with Lovie or up in the coordinator booth? If he’s on the sidelines maybe Cutler can lead a receiver that-a-way and take out Martz in a well-orchestrated “accident”…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Does Martz coach on the sidelines with Lovie or up in the coordinator booth? If he’s on the sidelines maybe Cutler can lead a receiver that-a-way and take out Martz in a well-orchestrated “accident”…[/quote]For good or for ill, you don’t want anyone’s life hanging on a Bears receiver’s route running ability.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]For good or for ill, you don’t want anyone’s life hanging on a Bears receiver’s route running ability.[/quote]It’s funny you say that, as I was thinking that the receiver doesn’t even have to catch the ball to make this plan work… (dying laughing) But I guess that point is moot if the receiver doesn’t run to the right spot anyway.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Seems to me you ask for permission to talk to the guy first, then find out whether the guy is even interested, and then you set up the compensation if applicable. Cubs did this one right.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]2 first rounders? For what exactly??[/quote]
I guess they don’t have faith in their ability to find decent value at QB with two first round picks. (dying laughing)
Tannehill? Griffin? Tyler Wilson? Maybe Bray or Murray?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]I guess they don’t have faith in their ability to find decent value at QB with two first round picks. (dying laughing)
Tannehill? Griffin? Tyler Wilson? Maybe Bray or Murray?[/quote]The Bears gave up 2 1st rounders, a 3rd, and Neckbeard for a 5th and Cutler, but Cutler was 25 and in his prime. Palmer is what, 32? And he hasn’t had a good season (>85 qb rating) in 6 years and only had 3 seasons with rating >85 out of 9. Really a stupid move in my, and it seems like everyone’s, opinion.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]The Bears gave up 2 1st rounders, a 3rd, and Neckbeard for a 5th and Cutler, but Cutler was 25 and in his prime. Palmer is what, 32? And he hasn’t had a good season (>85 qb rating) in 6 years and only had 3 seasons with rating >85 out of 9. Really a stupid move in my, and it seems like everyone’s, opinion.[/quote]
I know I’m higher on Vince Young than most people, but I think he would have been perfect in OAK. And he probably would have only cost a third.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]I know I’m higher on Vince Young than most people, but I think he would have been perfect in OAK. And he probably would have only cost a third.[/quote]They had Campbell running the show and have a winning record. The don’t exactly have to get a stud (which Palmer isn’t, although they paid the price for one) to get replacement level value for Campbell.
WaLiQuote Reply
Cubs, Epstein eyeing Padres GM Hoyer for role
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/10/18/heyman.hoyer/
WaLiQuote Reply
I don’t like the idea of Epstein as president and Byrnes/Hoyer as GM. If that’s what they want, just hire Byrnes and keep the prospect and save some money. I don’t want Theo in a role he’s unfamiliar with. If they’re paying him to be the GM and slap some title on that he hasn’t had before, fine, but that should be it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t like the idea of Epstein as president and Byrnes/Hoyer as GM. If that’s what they want, just hire Byrnes and keep the prospect and save some money. I don’t want Theo in a role he’s unfamiliar with. If they’re paying him to be the GM and slap some title on that he hasn’t had before, fine, but that should be it.[/quote]
Agreed. Though FWIW the same title logic would apply. It doesn’t matter if Byrnes or whoever has the GM title if the role is the same as the assistant GM would have had. Keep the responsibilities the same and bump everyone up a slot.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t like the idea of Epstein as president and Byrnes/Hoyer as GM. If that’s what they want, just hire Byrnes and keep the prospect and save some money. I don’t want Theo in a role he’s unfamiliar with. If they’re paying him to be the GM and slap some title on that he hasn’t had before, fine, but that should be it.[/quote]It all depends on how they define the roles. It could be that Theo intends to do exactly what he’s been trying to do in Boston but perhaps being restricted somewhat by the leadership in place. If he has a well thought out idea of how to build a winning baseball organization, I really don’t care what his title is.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t like the idea of Epstein as president and Byrnes/Hoyer as GM. If that’s what they want, just hire Byrnes and keep the prospect and save some money. I don’t want Theo in a role he’s unfamiliar with. If they’re paying him to be the GM and slap some title on that he hasn’t had before, fine, but that should be it.[/quote]I have fallen in love with the idea of Theo overhauling the Cubs like he did the Red Sox. I think a lot of what he did in Boston falls under a President’s role, like creating Carmine and creating a Red Sox Way of development that permeated through the organizational structure.
The entire Cubs organization needs an overhaul and the only way that happens anytime soon is if Theo frees up his time by not having to do the nickel and dime contract negotiations and networking with other GMs as they try to improve the team. If the Cubs are this sold on Theo as a visionary, they have to be trustful of whoever he chooses to do the everyday nittgy gritty stuff that he won’t have time for.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I have fallen in love with the idea of Theo overhauling the Cubs like he did the Red Sox. I think a lot of what he did in Boston falls under a President’s role, like creating Carmine and creating a Red Sox Way of development that permeated through the organizational structure.
The entire Cubs organization needs an overhaul and the only way that happens anytime soon is if Theo frees up his time by not having to do the nickel and dime contract negotiations and networking with other GMs as they try to improve the team. If the Cubs are this sold on Theo as a visionary, they have to be trustful of whoever he chooses to do the everyday nittgy gritty stuff that he won’t have time for.[/quote]
Agreed. Could also very well be that he’s thinking Lucchino’s job is the one to have if you really want to get shit done your way. It’s not like Hoyer or Byrnes would be able to do anything without Theo’s approval.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I have fallen in love with the idea of Theo overhauling the Cubs like he did the Red Sox. I think a lot of what he did in Boston falls under a President’s role, like creating Carmine and creating a Red Sox Way of development that permeated through the organizational structure.
The entire Cubs organization needs an overhaul and the only way that happens anytime soon is if Theo frees up his time by not having to do the nickel and dime contract negotiations and networking with other GMs as they try to improve the team. If the Cubs are this sold on Theo as a visionary, they have to be trustful of whoever he chooses to do the everyday nittgy gritty stuff that he won’t have time for.[/quote]Yeah, I agree with this. Whether his title is GM or president or what-have-you, he’s going to be the key figure for defining and shaping the Cubs of the future. Just because Byrnes, e.g., is the one making the deal doesn’t mean it’s not Theo giving him the okay to do so. I see a major restructuring coming.
binkyQuote Reply
The last two guys the Cubs brought into Theo’s supposed President level were Dallas Green and Andy MacPhail.
Green got shit done and pissed everybody off in the process, so when it started to go bad at the major league level, the suits forced him out. Green essentially failed because he was such an asshole that nobody wanted to deal with him unless the Cubs were winning every year. Theo doesn’t have that problem. By all accounts he is a very charming guy and a very good boss that people like working for. If that wasn’t true, he wouldn’t have anybody to bring with him from the Red Sox and these negotiations would probably be simpler.
MacPhail was brought in to keep an eye on the budget. He was wrapped in a “money doesn’t win championships, smart money does” cloud of bullshit, but he didn’t do anything terribly innovative to improve how the Cubs evaluate talent in their system or as free agents. He was always at the mercy of the Trib beancounters and his near-religious need to prove that money wasn’t a factor in winning. Combined with an unproven Ed Lynch doing his GM work, that was never going to work.
Aisle424Quote Reply
So…would we have to compensate the Padres for Hoyer?
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]So…would we have to compensate the Padres for Hoyer?[/quote]He’s under contract until 2013 so probably. They can have Chris Carpenter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]So…would we have to compensate the Padres for Hoyer?[/quote]Do we have any McNutts left?
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]So…would we have to compensate the Padres for Hoyer?[/quote]Carrie Muskat thinks so:
.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Is Theo the one requesting those GMs to work with?
binkyQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]
[/quote]McNutt joke!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Yeah, I agree with this. Whether his title is GM or president or what-have-you, he’s going to be the key figure for defining and shaping the Cubs of the future. Just because Byrnes, e.g., is the one making the deal doesn’t mean it’s not Theo giving him the okay to do so. I see a major restructuring coming.[/quote]If they wanted an assistant GM they would’ve hired Josh Byrnes whose contract isn’t actually known (at least not to me) but since he’s an assistant it’s not like he can’t be easily plucked. Seems to me that want a younger, smart baseball president (Theo) which is why they didn’t hire Pat Gillick despite the rumors a couple months back, then have some young hotshots with some success under Theo as GM. Is that about right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
You guys convinced me I’m wrong.
mb21Quote Reply
Here’s a question from the dickhead-move department…if Theo is being hired as a club president rather than a GM, what’s to prevent him from quitting the Red Sox so that they get nothing in compensation? Would the contract really prevent him from doing this? Or perhaps the guys he wants to bring over from Boston are that awesome and he doesn’t want to risk burning any more bridges than have been destroyed already…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You guys convinced me I’m gay.[/quote].
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Here’s a question from the dickhead-move department…if Theo is being hired as a club president rather than a GM, what’s to prevent him from quitting the Red Sox so that they get nothing in compensation? Would the contract really prevent him from doing this? Or perhaps the guys he wants to bring over from Boston are that awesome and he doesn’t want to risk burning any more bridges than have been destroyed already…[/quote]If he’s under contract he can’t quit and work somewhere else. If the Red Sox fire him or violate his contract then he can.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If he’s under contract he can’t quit and work somewhere else. If the Red Sox fire him or violate his contract then he can.[/quote]Ah. I guess MLB jobs aren’t like college football jobs then (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
At this point I’m wondering if the Cubs are just waiting the Red Sox out. There’s no way Theo is a GM for the Sox again. I would think he’s smart enough to include something in his contract about the Sox letting him out of his contract if they give him far less responsibility.
mb21Quote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/offseason-roundtable-part-1.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
(dying laughing) if it takes you more than one guess to figure out who that was written by you haven’t been paying attention.
mb21Quote Reply