OSS: Not with a bang but a whimper.
Three up:
- The Cubs pitching staff came to play today. Jon Lester got the start and stepped up by allowing just one run in six innings, striking out nine. Joe pinch hit for him in the bottom of the sixth, which was easily the right move, but the Cubs blew their chance in that frame.
- Cole Hamels graded out as the highest WPA pitcher on the day, pitching two shutout innings in extras. Pedro Strop also managed to look like his old self in his return from injury, so extra bummer to see the offense fritter this away.
- Javy Baez was the only hitter who had anything cooking today, hitting a game-tying double in the eighth and actually managing to draw a walk in the eleventh.
Three down:
- Once again the offense was ice cold. Does Chili Davis lose his job? Only the Orioles had more zero or one run games on offense this year, and I think the Cubs would tie them if they included this game. Unlike Hickey, who should also probably be on on the wobbly chair, he isn’t old buddies with Maddon.
- Ben Zobrist was seemingly hitting weak grounders to 2b every inning, and I was shocked to see that he actually managed a hit at some point. He was the Cubs WPA trailer in this one.
- I assumed said WPA trailer would be Rizzo, who GIDP in the Cubs best rally of the day, but he was actually third behind Zobrist and Murphy. It truly was a team effort to score this few runs.
Next up: It should be an interesting offseason – the Cubs should certainly target more pitching. And even if the offense hadn’t shat the bed, the importance of the bullpen in the postseason has only become more apparent. This team still won 95 games, despite everything that fell apart this season.
Comments
People are getting on Gore for striking out? He’s something like 17th on the list of players on this roster that I’d pin this loss on.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah. I mean, if we’re going to pile on somebody it should be someone like Bryant, who was about as automatic an out as Gore.
But I don’t want to pile on him either. He’s obviously still hurt.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
It’s not Gore’s fault he didn’t get a take sign. I don’t think there is any one individual this can be blamed on. They were a really good team, but also quite beatable. You either got 10 runs or nothing. The Cubs were lucky to get to 95 wins. This is on all of them, but probably more so on the offense. The Cubs probably win 100 games or more with a consistent offense.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t blame Chili Davis so much as I blame the hiring of Chili Davis. Obviously I could be way off, but it seems like his philosophy was a big departure from what most of the guys on this offense had been preached. When they followed his method they were super successful, but when they struggled they reverted back to the decayed but still prevalent remnants of their previous approaches. If that is the case, sticking with Davis might be the best move, hopefully ingraining his approach (which worked really well when they followed it) deeper into their psyche.
andcountingQuote Reply
The most surprising thing about the last week or so of Cubs baseball was that they won enough games to tie MIL for the division. And because I came to terms with this outcome a week ago, last night’s game was actually quite fun. Lester and Strop got me fired up a few times and the 8th inning was great.
But no Cubs fan should want to see more of this team. Can you imagine watching MIL beat them three more times?
RynoQuote Reply
So, given that Russell is probably gone, do you sign Machado, or still Harper?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Harper is what this team needs. His upside at the plate outweighs everything Machado brings to the table, imo.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Exactly. This couldn’t end well.
andcountingQuote Reply
https://theathletic.com/563917/2018/10/03/rosenthal-the-cubs-are-out-will-joe-maddon-soon-follow/
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I wish more articles just faded into white like that when they started to get all boring and muddied up the narrative my brain created strictly from the headline.
andcountingQuote Reply
berselius,
I hadn’t even thought about that. Part of me would be really surprised to see the Cubs let Maddon go, but part of me wouldn’t.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’d be really surprised. I think Joe’s value has always been his ability to keep the vibe positive, keep players motivated, etc. Hes not a Theo disciple in a lot of progressive baseball ways, but Theo knew that all along. Joe has done a great job of limiting the extracurricular nonsense of infighting, media rants, that kind of thing. Attitudes have stayed positive even through inconsistent playing time and brief struggles and, well, Al and company. I think Theo values that enough to just talk through baseball differences.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I agree with this. I think Joe is a net positive for this team even though I complain frequently about him. Just look around at the Cubs dugout last night all night long, even when they trailed late and these guys were having a blast. No doubt this hurt when it was over, but there’s something to be said about just having fun and this team does that.
If the MLB investigation of Russell uncovers something about Maddon or another coach covering for Russell then I think I could see Maddon fired. If they are bounced from the playoffs early next year or miss them I could see it, but I think Joe is probably the best option for this team unless something is going on that we haven’t heard about.
I was unable to read that Athletic article since I don’t have a subscription so I don’t know exactly what was said, but a manager and the President/GM not being on the same page isn’t anything new. Usually in those cases if you games the manager keeps his job.
dmick89Quote Reply
Chili Davis left the Red Sox last year, and this year the same players are way, way better. I feel like that has to mean something. I’m not ready to put all the blame on the hitting coach (because that’s lazy), but it’s not a horrible place to start.
You also have to wonder if the Addison Russell situation had something to do with everything. From a clubhouse perspective, it can’t feel great to have one of your 25 kicked off the team like that.
This team needs a couple relievers (as does every team) and at least one bat that can actually show some consistency. The list of players that are untouchable at this point is exactly zero. There isn’t a single player on this team that you have to have to compete for a world series next year.
MylesQuote Reply
Yeah, I’ll take Harper even though there are solid arguments for going after Machado instead. I think Harper’s upside is worth it even if he is a little more inconsistent.
Do you keep Daniel Murphy around? What about Cole Hamels? My guess is they’ll try to re-sign Chavez.
dmick89Quote Reply
So what are the big decisions this winter?
The fates of Maddon, Davis and Hickey.
Hamels’ option.
Middle infield.
Bryce or Manny.
Missing anything?
RynoQuote Reply
Fuck it, why not?
andcountingQuote Reply
dmick89,
Either would be fine, but Harper takes this offense to another level.
No on Murphy and yes on Chavez and Hamels. Just not sure if you let Texas pay for Hamels’ buyout and re-sign him or just pay the $20M next year.
RynoQuote Reply
andcounting,
I bet they could afford it.
RynoQuote Reply
I think Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez are all really good young players. Schwarber has shown flashes, and Contreras has shown great flashes. Happ and Almora are probably great backups or below-average starters long term. Heyward is the same at this point. Caratini will be a career backup. So will Bote. I don’t want to depend on Happ, Almora, Heyward, Bote, or Caratini for anything more than a bench or platoon role, and Schwarber has a .205 OPS difference between lefties and righties. To me, if you find any outfielder or any middle infielder, or obviously any pitcher, you just get him. And I’d spin anyone on the team for the privilege, honestly.
MylesQuote Reply
I’d probably let Murphy walk. I’d decline Hamels option and then try to re-sign him. Not sure what I’d offer, but it would probably take a two year deal. I’d definitely be trying to re-sign Chavez as soon as possible.
dmick89Quote Reply
MylesQuote Reply
I’d be really surprised if the Cubs exercise the option, and I’d be mildly surprised if the Cubs don’t ink him to a 2-year deal.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
How do the Cubs sign Hamels for less than the option, given the way he finished the year? I’d be surprised if the market didn’t demand more than $20 million, even if it’s more than 1 year. Would they really want more than one year of Hamels?
andcountingQuote Reply
I guess what I’m saying is, I’d rather pay $20 million for one year than $25 million for 2.
andcountingQuote Reply
I think 2/$34 million gets it done, because that’s $40 million for Hamels with the option getting declined. Basically, the Cubs have an extra $6 million of bargaining for an extension because Hamels only gets the “extra” $6 mil if the Cubs don’t exercise.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I’d probably discuss a 2/$35 deal with Hamels before declining the option, but I’d be just fine with the 1-year deal. I bet Theoyer would too.
I bet the front office is betting on a bounceback year and will not be overly aggressive because of it. The rotation seems pretty set for the year if Hamels returns, so I could see them going for Bryce/Manny, middle infield depth and a reliever or two. I could also see them trying to get younger in the rotation somehow…
RynoQuote Reply
I think $5 million for 2020 Hamels would probably be a bargain if only just for him being a long-man LOOGY type.
MylesQuote Reply
andcounting,
That’s where I am also. Discuss a two-year deal you like with him and then just pick up the option if he’s opposed.
RynoQuote Reply
Really just depends on what Thoyer thinks they can milk out of him in two years. I’m bullish on it, but I obviously could be blinded by his short tenure here. I think we can all agree that he’s worth a $20 MM spin this year, though.
Hendricks
Quintana
Lester
Darvish
Hamels
is a fine 1-5 to start with. I’d like to find some way to get a young pitcher to slot in when one of those inevitably fails.
MylesQuote Reply
I think I’d seriously consider a 6-man rotation next year.
MylesQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Hi guys.
That game sucked.
Glad to see you don’t wait for Al & co’s tears to dry before talking about the future.
(What — have you no emotion for this 2018 team?)
SKQuote Reply
Alvin Yellon: weather expert.
RynoQuote Reply
I honestly don’t. Couldn’t bring myself to care too much about this team.
MylesQuote Reply
Ryno,
It could go either way
berseliusQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
berselius,
We just don’t know…
RynoQuote Reply
That’s where my head is as well. And you could do a lot worse than Hamels as a #5.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs use Montgomery in a trade package if they’re at all confident Smyly can serve as a swingman.
PerkinsQuote Reply
(dying laughing) “Maybe later.”
“Think about potential Cubs moves? What am I, some kind of internet Chicago Cubs website blogger or something?!”
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Less than 12 hours after the worst thing every to happen? I can’t begin to commit to going on another day.
andcountingQuote Reply
Ryno,
(dying laughing) I swear I did not actually go the bcb and look at that, I just assumed. I have not been to that site or any other fanblog site besides this one in many years.
SKQuote Reply
And of course we have to dive into his season epilogue post…
We made it all the way to the subhead before his comma key started acting up.
If Alvin’s tired after 12 games in 12 days, elite athletes must be exhausted. And other than the 17 hours per day they’re not playing baseball, they get like no time off.
Someone please teach this human how to use punctuation.
What the fuck is “medium-deep left field,” asshole?
Why was it a “hug,” Alvin? Are you suggesting there was more to it? 8=D~
I’d say they all belong on the list. That’s how lists work.
Thank you for clarifying that BAL did NOT lose “eleventy billion” games before I spent all day figuring out how that’s possible.
Of course not. Why would we discuss the Cubs’ off-season on the first day of the Cubs’ off-season?
RynoQuote Reply
Al probably needs a day or two to drown his sorrows in bologna sandwiches.
North Side PatQuote Reply
andcounting,
I really think he thinks it’s something normal people might call “disrespectful” to talk about the 2019 Cubs the day after the 2018 Cubs died.
RynoQuote Reply
SK,
BCB is great. It always reminds me that, despite my emotions about the end of the season, I’m not a BCBer.
RynoQuote Reply
North Side Pat,
Is “drown his sorrows” a euphemism?
RynoQuote Reply
After this year, I’d be ok with going back to one wild card. I’m ok with an exception in the case of the three best records coming out of the same division, but the Cubs were effectively penalized for not being a game worse than the Brewers and then forced to play a team that won 4 fewer games than they did. The only team truly rewarded for their regular season performance won fewer games than any of the other 4 postseason teams.
Brewers, best record in the league. One-game tiebreaker, guaranteed at least a shot at winning one-game wild card game.
Cubs, best record in the league. One-game tiebreaker, guaranteed at least a shot at winning one-game wild card game.
Dodgers, tied for third-best record in the league. One-game playoff, guaranteed at least a shot at winning one-game wild card game.
Rockies, tied for third-best record in the league. One-game playoff, guaranteed at least a shot at winning one-game wild card game.
Braves, 5th worst record in baseball. Full rest, no risk of anything less than a 5-game NLDS entry.
That scenario should never happen.
andcountingQuote Reply
I think one of you guys should reach out to Alvin and try to get him to do an interview for this site.
RynoQuote Reply
andcounting,
I know it’ll never happen, but I’d rather remove divisions and just have the top four teams in each league go to the playoffs. I’d also be good with dropping to a 154-game season and adding another round of playoffs.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I’m ready, when you are.
AlQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Al,
Gross.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I’m watching you.
AlQuote Reply
Al,
Ibid.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I’d like divisionless play. But when the DH becomes universal, I’d like them to experiment with an NFL-style setup where they include a more substantial schedule with one division in each league. If divisional play counts, make it so your record outside of the division makes no attempt to be comparable to other teams. Just blow balance to hell.
andcountingQuote Reply
I’m in favor of eliminating divisions, but I think you have to start by blowing up the American and National Leagues. The only way I can see this getting much support from the players (and let’s face it, this won’t happen no matter what) is you move from AL/NL to East/West.
dmick89Quote Reply
Agreed. They should just seed the teams once the season is over. The Cubs and Brewers would have been 1 and 2 (decide this based on Pythagorean record or run differential or something that’s meaningful). The Braves get the 5th seed and the Rockies and Dodgers get the 3/4 seed (decide by same tiebreaker the Cubs and Brewers used). So the Braves play either the Rockies or Dodgers in the WC game and the winner of that game plays the Cubs or Brewers.
dmick89Quote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
dmick89,
I’m down with everything but the WC game. It’s more arbitrary than some season stats they could use.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I don’t like the WC either, but I think it’s more likely they seed the playoff teams than it is they add a full round in addition to what they currently have (meaning 8 teams per league in the playoffs).
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
I’m surprised some people thought he might not keep it. Do I think the Cubs could hire a better in-game manager than Maddon? Yeah, probably. Could they hire a better overall manager? I don’t know and I doubt Thoyer knows either.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://twitter.com/MDGonzales/status/1047582504805392384
Russell gets 40 games without pay.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I’m glad he gets some punishment, but I don’t really think it means a whole lot for the Cubs since it’s unlikely he’ll ever play another game for them. Not to mention that his trade value was already shot to hell so this doesn’t do much to that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs DFA him in a few weeks to clear some roster space.
dmick89Quote Reply
Russell probably loses a bit over a million dollars in this fine.
MylesQuote Reply
Cubs FA:
Daniel Murphy
Justin Wilson
Jorge De La Rosa
Jesse Chavez
Cole Hamels ($20 MM team option)
Jaime Garcia
Brandon Kintzler ($5 MM player option, $10 team option) (30-50% chance Kintzler will exercise his side of the option)
MylesQuote Reply
Non-tender candidates:
Addison Russell ($3.8 million in Arb 1)*
*Russell has Super-Two status and will have 4 shots through arbitration, and generally arb rate increases 50% from Arb 1 to Arb 2.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Chavez, Hamels and maybe Murphy if the price isn’t too high. I could also see the Cubs targeting one of Wilson or De La Rosa.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs payroll: $215 MM
(assuming a non-tender, non-exercising of Kintzler option, exercising of Hamels/Strop/Quintana options)
Cubs payroll 2018: $239.1 MM
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Bryant will get a big raise. Do the Cubs even have the money to sign Harper?
dmick89Quote Reply
Depth Chart
C
Contreras
Caratini
1B
Rizzo
2B
Zobrist
Happ
SS
Baez
3B
Bryant
Bote
LF
Schwarber
CF
Almora Jr.
Happ
RF
Heyward
UTIL
La Stella
Zack Short
(13 players)
SP
Lester
Hendricks
Quintana
Hamels
Darvish
RP
Strop
Edwards Jr.
Morrow
Cishek
Smyly
Montgomery
Rosario
MylesQuote Reply
My numbers assume Bryant gets a $6 MM raise to $16.85 MM, which is an Arb 2 record. Seems like the Cubs will either need to raise payroll or spin some assets to make room.
MylesQuote Reply
Those numbers assume that everyone besides Russell is tendered, and that arbs follow the 20-40-60-80 model for Super Twos and 40-60-80 otherwise.
MylesQuote Reply
If the Cubs don’t tender Russell, there’s a need for another utility infielder that someone like Mike Freeman or Zack Short would currently fill. I don’t think the Cubs would go into 2019 like that.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Looking at the numbers I don’t think the Cubs re-sign Hamels unless it’s quite a bit less than his current option.
dmick89Quote Reply
If that’s the case, Harper is gettable at the same payroll figure we had this year. You’d probably go into 2019 with a very soft bullpen and bench, but not poor ones. It’s my hope they spin Chatwood for some measure of salary relief. I’m not optimistic.
MylesQuote Reply
I still think Chatwood could be a pretty good reliever, but it’s probably not going to work if the Cubs give him another shot in the rotation. If the Cubs can get some salary relief then by all means trade him.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think David Bote is your utility player.
dmick89Quote Reply
How come Smyly was shut down?
dmick89Quote Reply
I used to like the Wild Card play-in back in, say, 2015. Now, in 2018, I’ve grown to the point where I think it’s a bad idea.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maddon —–> staying put
dmick89Quote Reply
I would not be surprised to see the Cubs blow past the luxury cap this offseason. They played it conservatively the last couple of years; Harper is available; and they made a quick exit from the postseason. Oh, and their TV deal expires after 2019, so they should have fuckloads of money in 2020 and beyond.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Can he play SS?
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
Joe was confident enough to use him there. Would I want him there if Baez was out a couple of months? Probably not, but I think I’m okay going into next season if he’s the backup SS.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bote can play SS as a back up. At least he did in minors.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
And there’s always Mike Freeman, just in case!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
So the only WS combinations where I root for the AL is Oak vs LA or Cle cs LA.
What’s the argument for Harper over Machado? Machado is a more consistent hitter, from what I see. Though if we do sign Harper, I assume Schwarber goes in a trade. (If we could get something of value for Schwarbs, I’d trade him anyway, before he completes his metamorphosis into Rob Deer and starts Phil Collins airband on the kiddie slides.)
Hamels/Smyly/Darvish seem like a good slot in the rotation. I’d assume something like Hamels breaks down in 2nd half and Darvish turns it on by then, if he isn’t out for year. A 6-man rotation just pulls another guy from the bullpen or bench. With the bullpen usage these days, I think having yet another guy thats only going to pitch 4.2 innings is less useful than another guy that can relieve.
I still like the WC format. Also if you seed teams, you have to go to a balanced schedule. I like that in baseball you have to win your division not to have a play in game. Second chance/wildcard teams have to live on the edge, as it should be. All other major sports have too many playoff teams and too much chance of losing/.500 teams making playoffs. I’ve seen some discussion of adding 2 more teams and going to 4 4-team divisions. I hate that. It’ll guarantee losers in playoffs.
At least the Cubs didnt have to start a reliever in their WC game.
BVSQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Or Starlin Castro, (dying laughing).
BVSQuote Reply
(dying laughing), I know pretty much everyone voiced the unfairness of the Pirates’plight in 2015, but 2015 was the very justification of the double wildcard. The only two teams in all of baseball with more than the Cubs’ 97 wins were in their own division. This yeast has exposed the worst case scenario within the setup: the 4 best teams in the league were all penalized and the team five games behind the leaders, 5th overall, was rewarded above the others. The flaw is obvious, biases aside.
Still, (dying laughing).
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Still, it’s a minor issue because it may ne b er occur again in our lifetimes.
There couldbe a 5 way tie for 2 wildcards and a division title, but it’s highly unlikely.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
It’s not a minor issue, it’s essential to the nature of competition and fairness and appropriate reward for success. A five-way tie would be a logistical nightmare but not one fraught with unfair repercussions. It’s a question of what the rules are designed to ensure/prevent. The current setup is designed to ensure exciting pennant races and prevent a stacked division from being underrepresented in the playoffs. It has also been reasonably fun to watch.
This is only the seventh season with two wildcards. The one-game playoff has always been a drawback. This year’s particular set of circumstances shows how big and effectively unfair it can be. Even in the AL it’s unfair. Yeah, at 97 wins the A’s deserve a shot at the playoffs, but the 100-win Yankees didn’t deserve a risk of missing out when the crappy Indians waltz in easily. It’s neither minor nor isolated. It’s a really flawed setup.
andcountingQuote Reply
Judging by Theo’s comments, I’d guess Chili Davis is gone. Statements like “the offense broke,” “the goal is line drives and fly balls,” and “bottom line: we stopped walking and stopped hitting the ball out of the ballpark” aren’t ringing endorsements of the current approach.
PerkinsQuote Reply
andcounting,
So…you are advocating for a set up like soccer? But with a playoff? One league and one division with top 4 seeds going to playoffs?
BVSQuote Reply
Perkins,
They did a good job striking out with men on base though.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
It would certainly be fun if baseball added relegation
berseliusQuote Reply
BVS,
Something like that, yeah. I’m probably advocating most for just changing. I think we’re past the dogmatic days of strict allegiance to tradition to the point where it’s OK to experiment with new formats. I don’t think it has to be perfect, but I do think when the flaws rear their ugly heads and prove to be undesirable, rework it.
andcountingQuote Reply
Perkins,
I hope so.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d go with two leagues (east/west), 15 in each league, top 6 or 8 advance to the playoffs (if you do 6 you have to have some wild card games like the nfl). Also, DH in both leagues. Fans should not have to watch horrible hitters who don’t even really care to be good hit.
I’d also be okay with expanding to 32 teams and then definitely using the top 8 for the playoffs in each league.
dmick89Quote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I think Almora gets dealt for a bullpen arm, Chatwood stays in the bullpen, Zobrist alternates between left field and 2b, Bote does the same, Hamels stays, Darvish returns triumphant, the rotation winds up being really good, Heyward plays everyday center, Schwarber platoons in left, Harper plays right, and people will really, really fucking hate the Cubs like never before.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
That would be delightful.
PerkinsQuote Reply
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24880346/alternate-drew-brees-history-lines-which-never-was-new-orleans-saints-quarterback
RynoQuote Reply
andcounting,
That would be great, but I’ll settle for a team that’s not frustrating to watch.
RynoQuote Reply
With the caveat that it’s not my money so I don’t care, I expect Harper to get a ridiculous contract this offseason. 7 years for $245 million with an opt-out after every year or two seems pretty “reasonable.”
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I think you can count the Cubs off the list of teams that are going to be paying that. I don’t see them going over $200 million and I don’t think they should. As good as Harper can be, he can also be very inconsistent. If I was going to do 7/245, there would not just be an opt out after two years, there would be a club option as well. The Cubs have mostly gotten screwed on every long-term, big dollar deal they’ve given out over the last five years so I think they’re going to be hesitant to give out a huge contract without protecting themselves.
dmick89Quote Reply
A big part of me doesn’t want Harper because he’s a gigantic douche. But from a purely baseball perspective I think it would be awesome.
andcountingQuote Reply
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-arent-a-dynasty-and-thats-okay/
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
andcounting,
Really? You guys want a format where 50% of the teams make the playoffs? I guess since I really like baseball, I might be able to get behind that, because you’d have the chance to add 26 games at the end of the year, if you have a 5 game opening round and all series max, instead of only 20. But I thinks that’s pretty awful in reality. You are basically asking for the interminable NBA finals. Really, who gives a rip about the opening round when the Warriors thump whoever the 8th team in the west is–Utah? Vancouver? That’s no more entertaining than the yearend series between the Reds and the Marlins, or whoever.
The one-game wildcard playoff is excellent entertainment. It stokes engagement in the playoffs right away. I hated the idea at first, but it only took one year for me to like it.
Change for change sake isn’t really worthwhile. I’ve been in the University setting for long enough now that I’ve seen that demonstrated over and over again. Let’s merge departments, lets reorg colleges, lets now split departments, etc etc etc. Without a strong justification that shows a concrete improvement, rearranging deck chairs is a huge waste of time and effort.
That said, the league will certainly expand to 32 teams and probably could do so right now while also fixing messes in Oakland and Tampa. Add/move teams to Montreal, Charlotte, Portland, and Brooklyn. Or take out one of the first 3, tell the Giants to grow up and move Oakland to San Jose.
So whatever realignment you’d like to propose really should be at 32 teams. I’m good with 4 eight-team divisions in two leagues which keep the American/National League names. Then 4 wildcard teams per league. Then top division winner by record gets the lowest seeded playin winner, and 2nd division winner gets the top seeded playin winner. All wildcard teams must have a winning record (not .500). If the 4th place wildcard does not get a winning record, then the top wildcard gets a bye for the playin. No freakin’ loser teams in the playoffs. This isnt the NBA or NFL or NCAA bowl season. This makes 12 out of 32 teams in the playoffs unless some league is totally crap. 38% of the teams make playoffs. Same number of playoff series (except with 2 wildcard playins instead of 1) and games as now.
BVSQuote Reply
My guess is if the Cubs sign either Machado or Harper (if they sign either), then at least one and probably two of Schwarber, Almora, and Happ are gone. Of the three, I don’t have a preference to trade. Each of them frustrate me to no end. Machado would alternately push Bryant or Zobrist to OF, depended where Machado plays that day. With Russell gone, Machado makes more sense to me. I suspect Montgomery will be traded too. He’s shown enough as a starter that he can bring some return in a package with Schwarber or other OF listed above.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
I don’t know who’s advocating for change for change’s sake. I’d like to see change for the sake of getting out of an unfair, ridiculous arrangement. I don’t think the third best team should be kept out of the playoffs, something the current system rightly prevents. But I also don’t think the second best team should be eliminated in one game. It’s nonsense, especially when the 5th best team gets a best of 5. It should definitely be changed.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Ok. I think I misunderstood your comment here.
andcounting,
Both third seed division winners had worse won loss records than the wildcard teams. But I’d argue that at the end of the year the Braves were better than the Cubs and the Indians better than the As. Since none of teams play the same schedule, win percentage has to be interpreted within a range when comparing among teams. Are the Indians as good as the Yankees? No, 9 games is a big difference. But 4.5 games between Atlanta and the Cubs might be in MOE. Which metric is this? Pythagorean or something, no?
But with unbalanced schedule, you have lots of chances to dominate your division to win it. All of the third seeded division winners had better W-L in their division than the WC teams did in theirs. Have the best record within your division and it’s a good chance you’ll be the winner, unless you are Pittsburgh in 2018. Then you won’t.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
You see how your points contradict each other, though, right? The NL East and AL Central were the two worst divisions in baseball, which is why the Braves and Indians had more divisional success…yet their records were still worse than the wildcard teams that played in tougher divisions. So I’d argue the Braves and Indians were decidedly worse than the Cubs and A’s.
What’s more, overall record is what decides the wildcard and divisional seeding. To argue it’s unreliability is to point out yet another flaw in the current system.
andcountingQuote Reply
My point is: change this shit. It’s not good. Try to make it better. If the new version isn’t perfect, change it more. But I’m not advocating changing things just to spice things up. I want a more equitable, true-to-merit system.
andcountingQuote Reply
The argument for the current system is based on entertainment. The arguments most of us have made is based on fairness. Which do you think MLB will choose? Entertaining or fair?
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
They’re not great at accomplishing either, but I’d argue that the best teams playing the most games would be pretty entertaining.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I’d think their goal is to get the most people watching the most entertaining games. Ideally, that’s large-market teams playing in more elimination games. They can’t really control the former (or can they? *dramatic sounder*), but they can sure control the latter.
All biases removed, I’d like to see more MLB teams make the postseason even though I realize it might mean a worse team will advance. While I’m opposed to the 1-game playoff when it screws over my team that tied for the best record in the NL, I was definitely happy with the current set-up three years ago.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Fair enough.
andcountingQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Yeah, those sports books just take random guesses when they set lines and odds. It’s not like they have way more information than basically anyone.
RynoQuote Reply
andcounting,
Don’t tell me the amount of fairness my comment contains!
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
It’s also stupid because it’s not like people are suggesting we use gambling lines to figure that out. After all, the only way to figure out where Harper is going to sign is wait for him to sign. Prove me wrong.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
Have it your way.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Don’t tell me which way to have it!
RynoQuote Reply
dmick89,
BCBer: The Cubs are the favorites to land Bryce Harper.
Alvin: That doesn’t mean it will happen.
BCBer: What do you think will happen?
Alvin: Now is not the appropriate time to ask that question. Maybe later.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I will say that I always thought when the current setup was introduced that it was a steppingstone to more sweeping changes. I don’t think baseball will ever make a giant overhaul of how they do everything. I figured adding a fifth playoff team was an incremental step toward bigger moves like a universal designated hitter, division consolidation or elimination, first-round byes for the top two teams, etc. I’ve never thought that the current set up was a travesty of justice, I just think that it has proven to be not worthy of permanent use.
andcountingQuote Reply
Maybe.
berseliusQuote Reply
Given the choice, I know what the NFL would choose (neither).
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I think they’d be more likely to choose an option based on spite than improving their product. The arrogance of the collective NFL owners is out of control. They and the NCAA are taking what could be an amazing product and trying to see how much they can run it into the ground.
RynoQuote Reply
berselius,
Pretty sure that lack of conviction cost you the deciding vote this year for the Physics Nobel. Either that or overplaying your Strop-Morrow quark.
Maybe next year.
BVSQuote Reply
Cool stuff they do in the minors
BVSQuote Reply
Amusing, but wrong.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m kind of looking forward to when the Dodgers steamroll the Brewers in the NLCS.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I’m sticking with my Brewers/Red Sox prediction in the series. As Uncle Dave has said here or elsewhere, the Brewers are shitting rainbows right now. It also helps they have a fantastic bullpen.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It’s crazy how hot they have been for so long. I expect the NLCS to be entertaining for whoever watches.
andcountingQuote Reply
I didn’t respond much after BVS and AC had the discussion the playoffs since I was mostly busy yesterday. Yeah, I’d prefer to not have 50% of the teams reach the playoffs assuming MLB expanded to 32 teams and 16 teams in the playoffs as I suggested. Maybe because it’s what I remember as a child, but I’m always going to be partial to how it was prior to the Wild Card. Yet I know that we’re never going to revert to that system.
I hate the wild card game. I always have. I’ve hated it even in 2015 though I loved the result. I think that’s two separate things. I think we’d be surprised how many times a 95 win team or better has faced off against a team with wins in the 80s and it’s been a winner take all type of situation. That should not happen. It’s ridiculously unfair and makes me wonder why they even bother playing 162 games if that scenario can play out as frequently as it does.
I don’t want change for the sake of change. I want change. If that change doesn’t work, like AC said, change it again. Keep making it better until you’ve found the perfect system, though I think 16 teams, seeded 1-8 in each league based on record is pretty fair. I’m not sure you’re going to get a fairer playoff system than that.
By eliminating divisions you remove the scheduling issues that different divisions have. The NL Central teams had a much tougher time getting to their win totals than teams in the NL East or AL Central. That issue is gone entirely.
Interleague play? I don’t really care one way or the other. It doesn’t bother me that much if they continue to play some interleave games, though I don’t think it’s the draw that MLB had thought it might be so I’d wonder why continue? That said, the DH should be in both leagues, but that’s another issue.
As for the length of the postseason, shorten the regular season to 154 games and remove off days during each series. Teams regularly play on days after traveling so there’s no reason why MLB needs to switch that up and basically change the entire way the game is managed in the process. The postseason pitching is more about bullpens at this point because of the off days. Eliminate them and you’re forcing teams to play the series in as similar a way as possible as to how they played during the regular season. That would eliminate two days with each series and then teams get one day off after a potential game 7 before the next series starts. There’s way too much rest in the postseason and it’s changed the way the game is played. The fix for that is easy.
dmick89Quote Reply
Imagine an 8-team per league postseason that went like this: a 21 game round robin that would essentially serve as a second season. Home-field advantage for each three-game series would be determined by regular-season record, So the number one seed would spend that entire stretch at home and the number eight seed would be on the road the entire time. Best record at the end of 21 games moves onto the World Series, one game tiebreakers as necessary.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
In such a system, every position change within the league standings would carry a reward/loss of 3 post season home games Every post season team would get to play at least 21 extra games. It would be possible for an eight seed to advance, but they would have to earn it against the best teams in the league, which would make it pretty unlikely. I wouldn’t bet money on this actually happening, but I would love for it to get a trial run of 3 to 5 seasons.
andcountingQuote Reply
Watching Andrew Miller now makes me sad.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s weird living in a world where Bauer comes in to clean up Miller’s mess.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I kept waiting for them to pull off his mask to reveal Carl Edwards Jr.
andcountingQuote Reply
It’s weird being envious of other teams again.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I was envious of the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros this time last year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Now I’m envious of those same teams plus the Brewers and Red Sox.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I still don’t buy the Brewers. They did well this year, but I wouldn’t bet on them to be as good next year. And they won’t have the spending ability the Cubs do.
Definitely jealous of the Red Sox, though.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
Ryno,
So this is fun.
I agree 100% with dmick’s post season schedule in terms of 154 games and fewer off days. Pretty sure that pulling Lester for a PH in the wildcard game has at least pushed me toward ambivalent about DH, from no DH.
I too hated the WC when first introduced. Unlike other sports, baseball had a clear standard for post season play. Win something or go home. No participation trophies. The single WC and all WCs in other sports are participation trophies. The advent of 2 WCs with a 1 game playoff turned me around on that. Now winning is still a clear advantage. Win your division. Otherwise run the gauntlet. Plus the WC game is entertaining and for all the angst about making baseball more exciting, dropping it would be less exciting.
I don’t care how fair it is for the Cubs to be out after losing the WC while the Braves are still in for a few more days because they won their division. One more win anytime during the season and this discussion is moot. One late inning hit with a runner at 2nd by Schwarber or Happ instead of yet another 4-pitch K, and who cares about the Yanks winning more than the Indians. The Cubs even had an extra chance to win one more game.
I just can’t get all worked up over the suggestion that by winning 4.5 more games than the Braves, the Cubs were shafted by settling for a WC. The Cubs were less than 3% better than the Braves in actual win%. I don’t think that’s a big enough difference to cry foul. It would be 1.5 games different of you use Pythagorean W/L. The Yanks were just over 5% better than the Indians, but only 1 game by PythWL. All those teams at least won 55% of their games.
50% of teams making the playoffs is dumb. It turns a sport into pre-season and playoffs. It means crap teams get rewarded. 6 teams have made the NBA playoffs in the last 4 years with .500 or worse records. None have won a series, so why bother? It isn’t entertaining. How is it fair to subject your top two teams’ players to potential injury to play a losing team in the postseason? If we took top 8 in baseball this year, the 80-win Angels and two 82-win NL teams would have been in. Yuck.
I don’t like 4-team divisions at all though because there is two much chance of a division winner being a losing team. So with 32 teams I see no choice but to have 2 divisions in each league. I might be able to get behind something like andcounting suggests though, with less than 8 teams. I’d have to think about that some more.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
Just so I’m following . . .
One more win is all it would have taken to avoid exiting the playoffs after one game. So a difference of one game is huge, and it should be.
Winning five more games than someone else is no big deal, and you should consider that 4.5 games.
Winning 8 more games than someone is a huge deal, and that shitty team should never smell the slightest whiff of October.
andcountingQuote Reply
Perkins,
Their starting pitching is a weakness, but it’s going to be a weakness for the Cubs too. Their bullpen is great and I’ve become a pretty big fan of Counsell. They’re also going to have money to spend and they get Nelson back. I think the Cubs are better, but not by much. The Cubs really screwed up by not going after Cain.
dmick89Quote Reply
This is full-on meatball irrationality. Win something or go home. The Yankees won 100 games, but because they didn’t win the most games in their division they won nothing? But the Indians won “something,” so hooray, playoffs? Participation trophy? Are you kidding me?
This might make you feel better about your ability to courageously come to terms with the Cubs’ exit, but it has nothing to do with reality or this discussion. No one is trying to undo the Cubs’ loss this year. The current system is obviously less sensible and competitive than the single wildcard or what the postseason could be. Be the tough guy, that’s great. But the system is still shit.
andcountingQuote Reply
dmick89,
Cain would have been great this season, but assuming the Cubs get Harper, that’s probably worth the downgrade they had in 2018.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Yet you are advocating for teams even worse than Atlanta to be in the playoffs.
My argument is that there is enough luck in baseball that a few games difference in the standings doesn’t really make one team clearly better than another.
The other part of my argument is that the current WC set up is far more entertaining than a playoff setup like the NBA or NHL have because it adds urgency and drama.
BVSQuote Reply
Perkins,
If the big 2 sign elsewhere, how do you feel about AJ Pollock?
BVSQuote Reply
If the option was to either keep the system as it is or going back to two leagues, no divisions and only the winner reaching the postseason (World Series), I’d much prefer that. I know that won’t happen because MLB rightly likes to keep as many teams in playoff contention as possible. MLB will not reduce the number of teams in the playoffs and therefore the only way to make the system fairer is to expand the number of playoff teams. Yes, some worse teams will get in the playoffs and yes, eventually one of them will win the World Series. That’s great for that city and it’s great for baseball. I won’t deny that. It’s still better than the current system. As many teams that make the NBA playoffs, it’s superior to MLB’s system. One game in baseball means almost nothing. The worst team in baseball will beat the very best team quite often (obviously not a majority, but frequently enough that we should immediately eliminate any rounds of only one game. The best team should have a sizable advantage in the postseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
BVS,
I hadn’t given any thought to Pollock. After the past few offseasons, I’m operating under the assumption that this front office will get the player(s) they want, which I think will be Bryce Harper.
For better or worse, they seem really good at reeling in the free agents they target.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I don’t think we’re necessarily denying that the winner take all game isn’t more entertaining or exciting. I’m not sure viewership numbers would indicate that, but I’m not sure. Certainly a game 7 in the LCS or WS is going to have fantastic ratings, but I think MLB needs to make decisions about more than excitement. I think by adding additional teams as I’ve suggested you’ve easily added more excitement to baseball than the WC game does.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
I had started to want the Cubs to pass on Harper, but by the end of the season I definitely jumped on board the sign Harper bandwagon. The Cubs offense was just too pathetic down the stretch and in the final couple games they played this year. I don’t think Harper is going to magically make that go away. There are a lot of inconsistent hitters in this lineup.
One thing I found interesting in what Theo said after the season ended was that it’s time to start evaluating these young guys not on their potential, but on their production. I took that to mean that it’s likely we’re going to see some of these young players traded this offseason. So some of this young talent is going to be traded this offseason. I think we knew that already, but this was confirmation in my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’d expect two of Happ, Schwarber, and Almora to be traded.
PerkinsQuote Reply
BVS,
I just don’t think the WC game is exciting. I’ve watched two because I’ve felt compelled to watch only two. It has the potential to be exciting. But the knowledge that one team is going home doesn’t add drama unless it’s my favorite team or an absurdly good team(s). Even then I didn’t watch A’s Yankees.
I’m glad and surprised you like it. Personally I think 7 months of baseball should, as an entertainment outlet, feature as much relatively consequential baseball as possible. I also think having teams with win totals in the high 90s playing too little postseason baseball is a bigger loss than allowing mediocre teams to play too much.
There are benefits to a shorter, sparser postseason. I don’t deny that. I don’t see any benefit, though, of not expanding it to see how it might improve October.
andcountingQuote Reply
I think Schwarber might be the most likely to remain with the team. He has the highest ceiling as a hitter, and had the best production this year.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I wish Schwarber could get more at bats against lefties. I wonder if he’d be even better if his playing time were more consistent. Wishful thinking, probably.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I’d definitely hope to see him get more chances against LHP.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Yeah, keep Schwarber. Happ and Almora I’ll drive to the airport.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Any decent backup CF available?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89
From MLBTR with age.
Carlos Gomez (33)
Jon Jay (33)*
Adam Jones (33)*
Leonys Martin (31)
Cameron Maybin (32)*
Andrew McCutchen (32)
A.J. Pollock (31)*
Ones with * seem to have some promise.
BVSQuote Reply
Hey AC, a team with _____ wins deserves to play full series in the postseason. Can you fill in that blank?
(Not trying to give you crap, just curious.)
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
No worries, that doesn’t strike me as anything but a legit question. Deserves is a key word, kinda tricky, because my strong opinion on how the playoffs should go isn’t particularly driven by what any one team deserves in a vacuum so much as in comparison to who else qualifies to play a full postseason series.
But in a 162-game season, 91 wins puts a team 20 games over .500. Does that mean they deserve to play a full series? I don’t know, but it’s a decent enough claim to one. 96 puts you 30 games over, and I’m pretty comfortable saying a 96-win team deserves to play a full series. But if you’re asking what the lowest possible number I’d put in that blank without making the statement decidedly false, I would say “not below the league median.” But again, deserves is a loaded word. I feel fine saying a team with below the league median of wins does not deserve to play a full postseason series.
andcountingQuote Reply
Looking at this year’s results, no one in the AL central and no one other than the Phillies in the NL East had winning records outside their divisions (86 games, compared with 76 divisional games).
andcountingQuote Reply
Walker Buehler lived up to his forename there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Welcome to the playoffs, Freddie.
andcountingQuote Reply
Pretty much.
RynoQuote Reply
Apparently the Brewers will never lose again.
berseliusQuote Reply
He seems to have the best rep in the clubhouse too.
berseliusQuote Reply
So when was the last time MIL lost? Some time in August?
Edit: I should reload the page before commenting.
RynoQuote Reply
If you keep Schwarber then that moves Zobrist back primarily to 2nd base. I’m okay with that.
dmick89Quote Reply
My only real concern if the Cubs stick with Schwarber and land Harper is that they may have too many left-handed hitters. But I’d rather they have more talented hitters irrespective of handedness.
PerkinsQuote Reply
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2018/10/8/17946022/five-best-cubs-games-2018
OK, but what about the most miserable conditions for a game that they did NOT intend to start on time and play without interruption unless there had been a torrential downpour?
RynoQuote Reply
Is there any hope the Cubs choke down a large-ish amount of Jason Heyward’s contract in order to ship him out of town this winter?
I’d like to nurture that hope, if I could. Please help.
Or don’t. I can’t ask you what to do.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Re: playoff discussion
Something not mentioned is that by increasing the number of teams that make the playoffs, it encourages teams not to tank or sell off their best players. This would hurt perennial contenders since they won’t as easily be able to obtain rentals, but it will help fans and revenue of today’s “seller” teams.
Transferring some of the regular season games to the playoffs will also add excitement and increased exposure.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Ryno,
I really want to narrow that list down even further to include only those games that they intended to play without interruption regardless of torrential downpours.
andcountingQuote Reply
Ryno,
Seriously, that is absolutely the worst sentence I’ve every read about a game with miserable conditions that was intended to start on time and played without interruption.*
*Unless there was a torrential downpour
andcountingQuote Reply
He was in the media. The only way to sensationalize so many things is to use a ridiculous number of qualifiers.
This website is OK. This website is the worst website for content sometimes related to the Chicago Cubs and sometimes related to football, smoked meat and the use of cast-iron cooking tools.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
yeah but it’s a GREAT resource for pizza hut milfs
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Truth. Also the best, FWIW.
andcountingQuote Reply
Seeing the Indians about to get bounced in the DS for the second year in a row makes me really happy the Cubs won the World Series in 2016.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I want them to keep failing for selfish reasons. i.e., I want 2016 to go down in infamy for Indians fans as their big chance that got away from them.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
(dying laughing), why?
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I want Indians fans to remember the defeat the Cubs handed to them for the rest of their lives.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I know it’s not entirely rational, but victory is sweeter when there is more at stake, including for opponents.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’ll admit to some Schadenfreude at seeing the Nats’ window closing without having made it out of the NLDS, after their hubris in 2012.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Realistically? Probably not. I doubt the Cubs even attempt to trade him, but if he has a strong enough season in 2019 then I could see them looking into it after that season. There’s too much money left and I doubt Ricketts would be happy eating as much money as the Cubs would have to in order to trade him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That’s as good a desire as any, (dying laughing). I’ll admit, the only fans I really want to see suffer are Cardinals fans. I love that they missed the playoffs, though I really wish they had won a couple in their penultimate series of the year.
andcountingQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, I think the hope he improves is more probable than the hope they get rid of him.
andcountingQuote Reply
Maybe go ahead and sign Machado instead of Harper.
andcountingQuote Reply
I still refuse to believe that this clean-shaven man is Andrew McCutchen.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
andcounting,
Double, HR 4 rbi today. Plus 2 run shot in game 2.
He’s clearly not the right fit for the Cubs.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
For the sake of change, I think they should try it. (dying laughing)
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
That’s I change I can totally support.
BVSQuote Reply
Ron Gardenhire tees off on the Tigers fundamentals, including Jeimer Candelario. Is he impugning the Cubs farm system?
TBH, I’ve been to many Pelicans games and rarely see someone pulled for playing stupid.
BVSQuote Reply
It’s been several years, but I used to go to a lot of minor league games and never saw that either.
dmick89Quote Reply
BVS,
Come on, pelican!
Tony MontanaQuote Reply
There is almost no better indicator that your baseball team sucks than working “the way” into conversations. The Tigers Way is getting outscored all the damn time, Ron.
mylesQuote Reply
New Shit
http://www.obstructedview.net/machado-vs-harper/
mylesQuote Reply