There was some discussion yesterday in the comments about run environments at the various minor league levels, so I decided to put in a little effort to summarize things. It's often said that a given league is a hitter's league or a pitcher's league, but those labels can be somewhat misleading. I do think it's important to have an idea of league context when judging prospect performance. I'll try to keep things brief, and I won't get into specific park factors for any affiliates; this will be more of a 10,000-foot summary. First up is full-season single-A ball: the Midwest League and the South Atlantic League.
Methodology
I'm going to include AL and NL data on my graphs, as I think that's a commonly understood baseline for most of us.
Unless otherwise noted, data for each year will be a five-year average (the current year and the two years before and after), with the "current" season weighted most heavily. The data tends to jump around quite a bit from year to year*, and I'm trying to limit the number of graphical monstrosities that I inflict upon the world. My feeling is that when in discussions, most of us are interested in the general tendency of the league. From there we can get into the oddities of a specific season, and how important they are to evaluating players.
*Among the factors in play: 1) Player turnover is high. 2) Some of these leagues only have eight teams, making the opportunity for random variation that much higher. 3) Changes in affiliates/parks are going to have significant effects. 4) Most of these leagues are relatively geographically condensed (in comparison to the majors), and thus will be more subject to localized weather patterns. For the most part I'm going to ignore these issues, so keep that in mind when looking at the data.
The Data
First up is runs per game. I'm not all that familiar with the Sally, but the MWL has the reputation of being a pitcher's league. What does the data have to say?
Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. (Not you, Brian Cartwright. Nobody likes a know-it-all). Despite it's pitcher-friendly reputation, the Midwest League run environment has been right on par with the AL for the past few years. So why the reputation? Well, because… dingers.
Power is late to arrive in prospects, so we can expect to see a general increase in homerun rates as they move up levels. The average age of prospects in both the MWL and the SAL is around twenty-one and a half, so most of these players will be in the early stages of development. However, this effect can be overwhelmed by league-specific geography or parks, as we will see, so we want to avoid attributing the entire effect to player development. While the relative concordance between geographically dissimilar leagues gives us some confidence in the age/development theory, it should be noted that there does seem to be a significant distinction between SAL and MWL rates. (That gap seems to have diminished, a fact that can be at least partially attributed to the movement of two teams from the SAL to the MWL starting in 2010.) There is probably a "young players" effect here as well as a contribution from poor environments for jonróns.
So what's the explanation for the discrepancy between homerun rates and total runs between A-ball and the big leagues? Those more familiar with the minors could probably write volumes on the topic, but I'll try to keep it simple. And it looks to me like it's mainly bad defense and pitcher control. A few more walks and HBP, lower defensive efficiency, and a hell of a lot more unearned runs.
Conclusion
The reputation of the Midwest League as a pitcher's league is somewhat undeserved. A more accurate description might be a "no homers/no defense league," and to a lesser extent, the same can be said of the South Atlantic League.
Next up, it's Advanced A-ball.
Comments
I was reading this when it was a draft, and it’s an awesome article. Nice work, and more in-depth than my hit-and-run in the comments yesterday
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
thanks. it’s not all that in-depth, but it has definitely helped to clarify my opinions on the minors, which were pretty surface level
GWQuote Reply
@fang2415
they should let try mcnutt or some other scrub come in and pitch the first inning of every game. that way they basically start out every game 8 runs in the hole and then they try their best from that point on. that would actually be pretty cool. guaranteed top 3 pick and you can still root for them to your heart’s content.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
That’s a really good idea. If the scrub throws a shutout, it’d be so crazy it’d be worth it.
Nobody should buy season tickets to a team that doesn’t do this.
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
http://www.amiameteorologist.com
fang2415Quote Reply
I think it’s funny how the rhetoric around “pitchers shouldn’t be eligible for the MVP” sounds exactly the same as ’50s Jim Crow racism.
“They have their own award, that should be good enough.”
“They should have their own Rookie of the Year Award. Keep them separate.”
Pitchers only play every 5 days, but they arguably have more impact than a player in there every day.
joshQuote Reply
Anyone listening to the radio? I’m about as interested in Pat and Keith’s movie opinions as I am in learning the exact composition of my dog’s shit last night.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Nice comparison. My daughter heard someone in school say the location of their new locker was worse than World War II.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ josh:
Is there a Cubs game today?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It’s not as bad, but it uses the same rhetoric. I just think its funny. I don’t have a strong opinion either way.
joshQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Well, I hope that Pat and Keith aren’t just discussing their movie choices as a regular radio show.
joshQuote Reply
Pwig. Rhymes with twig.
joshQuote Reply
When I finally listened to the entire speech instead of just the sound bites, I was surprised by both 1) how completely excellent the other nine minutes were, and 2) how militant it was. The classic clips are very positive and I always associated this speech with that kind of hopeful 60s vibe, but the full speech is some intense shit, IIRC (I listened to it around Obama’s first inauguration)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Jerk? Rhymes with twerk?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
That was how Keith pronounced Puig.
joshQuote Reply
Nice article, GW.
I’m in the camp that pitchers should not be able to win the MVP award. First of all, it’s not too often that a pitcher is actually the most valuable player and second of all, they do have their own award.
If they want to keep the MVP as is, they should create the Babe Ruth Award just for hitters.
I think the goal should be to honor a position player and pitcher each year.
The MVP was started before the CYA. I’d assume this was started to ensure that pitchers were recognized for their excellence.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
He does temper it somewhat with “We must not allow our creative protests to degenerate into physical violence.”
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I blame Pat. He sounds nice, but he chats about too much that isn’t baseball. He did it with Ron too.
I’d rather hear him spout drivel than most other people, but I’d rather hear almost anybody talk about what’s happening in the game than hear him spout drivel.
fang2415Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Separate but equal, I gotcha.
joshQuote Reply
@ fang2415:
Yeah, I always thought he did it with Ron as a distraction measure. To keep Ron from blowing a gasket, but maybe he’s just a chatty cathy. I know he’s bored off his ass, but just stick with the game.
joshQuote Reply
He’s bored off his ass. Take this game. The Cubes are sucking by four runs, and are on pace to get a total of three hits.
You should have heard the twaddle spewed during that 0-0 extra inning game where both offences sucked ass.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
The Cubes are not doing it fang’s way
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ josh:
Assuming we’re still talking baseball, I don’t think the two are equal. Here’s a nice image that Tango posted today.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Every graphic should be created in Microsoft Paint
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:
With text in Comic Sans
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
But there are fewer starting pitchers than fielders/hitters. Also, starters are involved in hitting and fielding. Pitchers are not infrequently the most valuable players in the league: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_leagues.shtml
If anything, they probably aren’t winning enough MVPs. To say individual pitchers aren’t as valuable because starters on the whole are less valuable is to commit the fallacy of composition.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I don’t have a problem with having separate awards for pitchers and position players, especially since it’s difficult to compare the two. However, as the MVP is currently defined, there’s no reason pitchers shouldn’t win.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
[img]http://www.lamebook.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/mooooove-over-meat.jpg[/img]
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I get it, they’re 3/5 of a regular player, scientifically speaking.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Nope. Starting pitchers overall are less valuable than position players overall. But it works out to about the same per player.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Ugh. You guys. Always so serious.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
+1
GWQuote Reply
@ josh:
Oh, I see what you did now. Never mind.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Regarding a discussion the other day about 7 inning minor league games and double headers…
I was listening to a Jack Benny radio show from 1952, where the gang goes to a ballgame. It’s “Los Angeles vs. Seattle” (the show is set in Beverly Hills), so it is obviously a minor league game although that isn’t mentioned.
In the background you hear the stadium announcer before the game saying “The first game of today’s double header will be nine innings. The second game will be seven innings”.
Two curious things:
1) When the umpires arrive on the field before the game, everyone boos. Does anyone do that anymore?
2) Rather than announce the starting pitchers before the game, they announce the batteries. Does the term battery get used anymore?
It’s a so-so episode overall, although Mel Blanc does a terrific routine as a hotdog vendor.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Did you listen to that game live too back in the day?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Juuuuuuuuuuust a bit before my time.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-8-28-13.html
MylesQuote Reply
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