San Francisco Giants Offense Preview

In Uncategorized by myles171 Comments

 

In what was arguably the greatest pitching duel of the past decade, the Giants (led by ubermensch Madison Bumgarner) downed the Mets 3-0 on a Conor Gillaspie HR (as we all saw coming). As a result, the Giants will take their Heart of Gold improbability drive to the 2016 World Series World Tour to Chicago.

Who the hell are these guys?

Catcher

Here’s an area where the Giants are just inarguably great. Buster Posey is extremely good. Posey’s worst career year was 2016, where he still hit .288/.362/.434 with 33 doubles and 14 home runs. This is a catcher who frames well, calls a good game, and his only 5 season removed from a well-deserved MVP season (complete with a batting title and OPS+ black ink). Posey has played the first half of this career on a solid HOF arc, and a gentle curve will surely get him there.

Posey will test the Cubs everywhere. He hits balls in any counts, with any movement, to every field. If there is any tendency, he does go the other way with his line drives – Heyward could get some work in this series. It’s slight, and Posey could challenge all 8 fielders in this series.

Lastly, Posey has a significant platoon advantage. He feasts on lefties, which will matter only in Game 1 and 5 (if it comes to that). I can’t imagine a scenario in which a lefty other than Jon Lester (updated:) or someone who throws 102mph pitches to Buster Posey.

Posey’s backup is a guy named Trevor Brown. He is something approaching Albert Suarez’ personal catcher, so I don’t know if he’ll get much run in the playoffs (especially with the built-in off days). He’s a perfectly serviceable backup that has a little pop but poor offensive numbers in general.

First Base

I was firmly on the Brandon Belt Bandwagon when he came into the league. He hasn’t lived up to the Top 15 offensive profile I had envisioned, but he’s firmly in the second-tier of offense-first 1B. This year was his best yet, with an incredible .394 OBP (and 132 OPS+ overall). He only had 17 HR (more of a doubles guy), but he will hurt you consistently. Belt is a complete hitter, with no real splits to mention (in essence, he has a slight reverse-split) and good batted-ball placement despite his being a lefty masher. Sure, he’ll wear Rizzo out in this series, but he certainly puts the ball everywhere.

You want to work Belt high in the zone. It’s where he’s most vulnerable, and you can get him to swing-and-miss if you’re up there. The trade-off is that while he whiffs on those, he knows it; he can lay off the high heat and take his walks. Hendricks and Lester have the control to work him there, and I think they could have success against Belt. Arrieta (who works down and relies on run) might have a harder time.

Second Base

Joe Panik has had an awful year, though he did walk more than he struck out. He’s a human GIDP machine that the Cubs should attack without mercy. Panik, like everyone on this team, does work the whole diamond. Just keep it low and slow, and Panik will get himself out more often than not.

Short Aside about “Hitting to All Fields”

It is probably obvious that unless you are Jim Thome or Ryan Howard, every hitter “hits to all fields.” I only mean that they distribute their hits even more evenly than the average hitter from that side of the plate. I envision the diamond in 6 zones: LOF, COF, ROF, LIF, CIF, RIF. A pull hitter from the left side will have something like 10/15/30/5/10/30. A “to all fields guy” will have something like 13/18/22/10/15/22. It might be 1 or 2 extra/fewer balls to a certain defender in a 5 games series. That is to say, don’t worry about it all that much.

Shortstop

Brandon Crawford is sort of the 30th percentile projection of Addison Russell. Crawford is an excellent defender at short, and he’s a positive if infrequent contributor with the bat. He walks a fair amount, doesn’t strike out all that often, and can mash for homers (21 last year) but is more often a “to-the-wall” type (11 triples this year). San Francisco is not his ideal park – in Candlestick he has “warning track power.”

Crawford is a defensive savant, and he’d be playable even if he hit like Kozma from the position (he’d be a below-average player, but playable). I say this only to warn you that he might make some frustratingly good plays during this series, so hopefully you aren’t surprised (aside: I was going to say “don’t be surprised”, but that would guarantee a “don’t tell me what to do” comment).

Crawford has no real split, but DOES pull the ball from the left side with fair regularity. He could keep Rizzo busy.

Third Base

Eduardo Nunez is a guy that has more tooth in his bat than you might expect. Hyper-aggressive at the plate, he puts the ball in play and hopes to beat it out with his speed – his .314 BABIP this year and last seem to indicate he can do that. He’s also aggressive on the basepaths, attempting 50 SB this year (and succeeding 80% of the time). You just freaking know he’s bunting against Lester in Game 1. Vegas won’t even take odds on that.

You could see Nunez pop up all over the field in this series – he can play serviceable defense just about anywhere on the diamond.

 

Left Field

Today in reminders that you are old: Angel Pagan is 34 years old. That’s incredible to me; if you asked me what his age was before I looked it up, I’d have said 30, 31 at the oldest. Pagan is a 12 year veteran that seems like he was on the Cubs when Theo got here but definitely wasn’t. He’s bounced back from a very poor 2015 (injuries he played through), and is your prototypical singles-only left fielder.

I kid, but that’s Pagan’s profile. He’s never slugged over .440 (5 years ago), and his 12 HR this year is a career high. He’s quite patient at the plate and takes his walks, and he can put the ball anywhere he likes. I actually like Pagan a lot, because he works counts and goes the other way routinely.  He’s a switch hitter with no real preference (slightly lefty), and his slightly golfy swing allows him to torch balls down in the zone while allowing you to get him out with high heat.

Center Field

Take out the bit about being a switch-hitter (Span is a lefty), and basically everything about Pagan applies to Denard Span. He doesn’t hit a lot of HR (11 is the career high), he gets lots of singles, he’s not great in the field but he won’t burn you, he doesn’t strikeout and can take a walk, and he sprays the ball everywhere. They’ll even work Span the same way they’ll work Pagan, with lots of high cheese.

Right Field

Hunter Pence is a first ballot Hall of Very Good-er. Here are his season OPS+, by year:

129
105
116
112
139
103
133
121
119
115

It’s sort of uncanny. He is a career .284/.339/.470, and is pretty consistently around those numbers each and every year. He’s just a very solid hitter.

Pence will strikeout if you give him the chance, and he likes to be a little more aggressive than the average guy. He’s a consistent 25 HR guy, though he missed some time this year (2nd year in a row with missed time) so he didn’t get there this year. If you can get him to swing at the pitch down and away (and the better pitchers can and will do that), he’ll get himself out most of the time. He’s also a step slower than he used to be.

Backups

Kelby Tomlinson has extreme splits, so he’ll almost certainly start Game 1 so he can face Jon Lester. He’s probably first off the bench against any lefty in this series.

Conor Gillaspie never has to buy a drink in San Francisco for the rest of his life, after depositing a Jeurys Familia pitch into the stands for a 3-run bomb in the Wild Card game. Gillaspie is going to wilt against lefties (to the extent that he might not start tonight’s game), but is pretty solid against right-handers. He’ll swing early and often, and is another guy that pulls the ball. He’d be shiftable if he was more dangerous, but I imagine the Cubs will play him straight up.

It’s the basic boilerplate advice, but Gillaspie is best attacked down and away (which is where pitchers generally work him). Old Gil’s skillset seems to be something none of the Cubs’ pitchers should have trouble with, but all it takes is one swing from anybody, as Conor proved in the WC.

“Weekend at” Gorkys Hernandez and Andres Blanco are just fungible OF backups that have don’t really have redeeming qualities at this point. We want to see these players in the game.

Summary

This lineup just isn’t that threatening. I think a lot of people get caught up in the legend of Madison Bumgarner, and see some fairly even pitching matchups (especially starters). To some extent, that’s true. I might well prefer Bumgarner twice (and believe me, if there are 5 games, MadBum is pitching significant innings in 2 or even 3), Cueto twice, and Samardzija to Lester twice, Hendricks, Arrieta, and Lackey. The thing is, the offenses just aren’t comparable. The Giants are just an average MLB squad with the bat, and the Cubs are the best in the National League. When you look at each facet of the game, you can’t reasonably come away with any other conclusion that the Cubs should be favored in this series. I have the Cubs in 4.

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Comments

  2. Rizzo the Rat

    I can’t imagine a scenario in which a lefty other than Jon Lester pitches to Buster Posey.

    Well, there is this guy named Chapman…

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  7. SK

    Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat 37m37 minutes ago
    What is Lester’s demeanor? #Cubs Maddon : “His demeanor is Jon Lester esque “

    I love Joe Maddon (and Jon Lester). Hell, even Carrie Muskat.

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  14. cerulean

    I am a fan of Baez at second and Bryant at third with Lester on the mound. Put Almora in for Zobrist and this is the best alignment in my opinion. And Zo is no slouch.

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  37. mobile dave

    Christ. California ballot prop ads are even worse than mlb.tv xFinity ads. It has been a long-ass time since I’ve watched live tv.

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  41. GW

    Hunter Pence is what happened when the lead singer of the Spin Doctors realized that taking meth made him really good at baseball.

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  43. berselius

    GW,

    I remember joking that he looked exactly like someone named Hunter Pence should look like when he was with the Astros

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  81. berselius

    cerulean:
    Gameday has Fowler doubling and Bryant grounding out. A bit confused, methinks.

    Sounds like MLBAM has breached the walls of time to an alternate universe.

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  94. SK

    I hate it when ex-player announcers say its much easier to the play the game than to watch it.

    Being a good analyst is hard, though, clearly. Say that.

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  102. cerulean

    In the home opener, they were no-hit into the seventh. And then they met the Reds’ bullpen. Cueto is over 70 pitches in the fifth. The Giants’ bullpen is also a marvel.

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  111. Smokestack Lightning

    Given how these announcers are gushing over the Giants, you’d think they’d won 103 games.

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  115. Smokestack Lightning

    cerulean: To be fair, they have won 36(?) postseason games in every other year.

    I suppose it’s better than hearing about the stupid goat and Bartman for three hours.

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  170. Rice in limbo

    Was shopping tonight with family during Cubs game. Kept checking score and it stayed 0-0 until I got home. Started unloading so radio off, and when I checked again it was 1-0 so I figured Javy homered. How about them apples.

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