Season in Review: Matt Garza

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick8960 Comments

Following the 2010 season the Cubs decided to trade a bunch of players to acquire an overrated middle of the rotation pitcher in Matt Garza. Then he surprised many of us by having the best season of his career. His average WAR was 3.7 (5.0 fWAR, 2.5 rWAR, 3.7 WARP). His fWAR in 2011 was 1.9 higher than his previous best in 2009. His 2011 WARP was 1.5 higher than his best (also 2009). According to rWAR, both 2008 and 2009 were better than his 2011 season with the Cubs.

He had a career best ERA, FIP and xFIP. His K% was the best and his BB% was the 2nd best in his career. Naturally, we heard all about how Matt Garza is a different pitcher. To a large extent he was. He threw his fastball considerably less often. He replaced it with sliders and changeups. Since Garza was having a career year, different was meant to mean that he's a better pitcher.

From 2008 through 2010 Garza had a 3.85 ERA and 4.24 FIP. In his injury shortened 2012 season he posted an ERA of 3.91 and an FIP of 4.17.

This is a bit unfair. Garza has been a bit unlucky this season while at the same time being a little lucky. His HR/FB rate is over 16%. There's no reason to think it would remain that high and if we adjust that to 10%, which xFIP does for us, it's a solid 3.60. Not as good as the 3.19 from a year ago, but still plenty good. His BABIP last season was about league average while this season it's just barely over .270, which interestingly is the same as it was from 2008 through 2010.

Garza has been more of a groundball pitcher since joining the Cubs. He's struckout more and walked a bit less than before.

He was more than likely going to be traded prior to the July 31st deadline, but went on the disabled list with soreness in his triceps. It was later relealed he had a small fracture in the elbow and since we're so late in the season he's been shut down for good.

Prior to the injury he had thrown 103.2 innings, allowed 90 hits, struckout 96 and walked 32. In 2011 he allowed 14 home runs in just over 200 innings. He allowed 15 this year. His 3.91 ERA was just a little better than league average and his FIP is right in the same area as average. Fangraphs uses FIP-, which is similar to stats like ERA+ and OPS+ except that less than 100 is better than average. His ERA- in 2012 was 94 and his FIP- was 102.

His fWAR was 1.3, rWAR was 1.1 and his WARP was -0.5. The WARP was below replacement level because his FRA (Fair Run Average) was 5.53, which was more than a half run higher than his worst FRA in 2010.

Garza will be eligible for arbitration for the fourth and final time this offseason. Due to his injury it's highly unlikely the Cubs could find a trading partner. In all likelihood he opens the 2013 season atop the Cubs rotation. He earned $9.5 million this past season and since he wasn't nearly as effective as 2011 and pitched just half a season, he won't get much of a raise. Both Garza and the Cubs will hope he returns to form early on so that they can trade him at the deadline. Garza will be hoping for a return to form in part to get to a contender at midseason, but also because he'll be a free agent following 2013.

While we're at this, we may as well take another look at the trade for Garza. I did so last June and then again in August, but we're another year into the trade so why not? I liked the trade by that time, but when the trade was completed, I hated it.

Garza has a total WAR (average of fWAR, rWAR, bWARP) over the first two seasons with the Cubs of 4.3. The Cubs also acquired Fernando Perez who had a short-lived career as a Cub and Zachary Rosscup. Rosscup was injured much of the season (only 29 innings at A+/AA), but will report to the Arizona Fall League. Rosscup strikes a lot of people out and has better than average control. The lefty has the potential to be a late-inning reliever, but he needs to return to form following the injury before that's even a possibility.

Chris Archer made his big league debut this year and in 3 starts has an impressive 25 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio. His command is still below average (this year in the minors it was 4.4 per 9). He could end up a back of the rotation pitcher, but more than likely will find himself in middle relief.

After a breakout season in High A last year, Hak-Ju Lee returned to AA where he slumped toward the end of the 2011 season and was only mediocre. He's still young, but he has no power. Speed is his best tool. If he can't stick at SS he has no MLB future ahead of him.

Robinson Chirinos missed the entire season with a concussion after an umimpressive debut in 2011. Guyer also missed most of the season and he was also unimpressive in his big league debut a year ago. Chirinos is 28 and Guyer is 26.

Sam Fuld has provided 2.4 WAR in his time with the Rays and he's done it for league minimum.

Because of Fuld's decent production for little money and Garza's step back this year, you once again have to give the edge to the Rays in this trade. Not much of one, but a slight edge.

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  3. SVB

    @ josh:
    I did, last Saturday while I was at the office reviewing professor compensation and work plans. His commentary fit right in to my thoughts at the time!

    You know, it only takes once to have your whole reputation f’d up. I guess Steve Clevenger took AC to his Rielle Hunter moment.

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  4. SVB

    MB, here’s an odd thing:

    If I log out and go to the Soriano post, I have the four most recent Forum topics listed on the left column. As soon as I log in, only the Teachers’ strike topic shows up. On this thread, only the Teachers’ Strike no matter whether I’m logged in or not….

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  6. mb21

    @ SVB:
    Yeah, I don’t understand that. I’ve noticed that over the last week with the Breaking Bad thread that had a lot of comments, then the Beer one and now the strike one. It seems if a thread has a lot of consecutive comments the others don’t show up. Don’t think there’s anything I can do about that other than hacking the forum files and it’s just not worth it. It doesn’t happen very often, but it is weird.

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  26. josh

    My favorite part of this time of year is when Pat laboriously explains how sometimes you want a team you don’t like to win because it helps your playoff chances.

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  27. SVB

    My favorite time of hopeless season ends like this one, is when a minor leaguer who you assume you’ll never hear of again, like Sappelt, has his career day.

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  29. josh

    Yeah, I was going to commend Sappelt for a good day, but it feels pretty hollow when you’re watching a AAA game (Cubs/Stros). I can’t even really root fro them to upset, because I don’t know anyone on the team now.

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  34. Suburban kid

    Jim Crane is all, Clemens could still pitch a game, and it might be against the Cubs, because I’m not going to create a sideshow and put him up against a contender. Roger Clemens is all, I’m not pitching against the Cubs or Brewers, I’ll only pitch against a contender, so I can knock them out. Dale Sveum is all, it would be totally awesome to face Clemens, it would be a total thrill to our kids, and people might actually come to the game.

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  35. WaLi

    SVB wrote:

    like Sappelt, has his career day

    I checked the box score expecting to see him hit for the cycle, but only saw a 2 for 5 performance with 2 doubles. Yeah I guess that’s a career day for him (dying laughing)

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  36. mb21

    The Cubs will probably end up going 18-7 over their last 25 games and we’ll hear how they did it without Samardzija or Garza. Then we’ll hear how that’s how good the team will be next year (even better!) when they get those guys back.

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  37. WaLi

    mb21 wrote:

    (even better!)

    Well they can’t really be any worse… I hope

    So next year our #1 – Garza, #2 – Samardzija, #3 – Wood?, #4 – Volstad?? , #5 – Some guy???

    That rotation is going to strike fear into opposing batters.
    Maybe we can be worse. (dying laughing)

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  38. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    I don’t know if the record will be worse next season or not, but the team will be. They had Dempster for 4 months this year. Soto didn’t play as well as expected, but he’s probably still better than Castillo or Clevenger. Rizzo is better than LaHair, but it’s quite likely that Ian Stewart is better than Josh Vitters. The team is going to suck ass next year.

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  39. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ mb21:
    Soriano will probably be gone, too, and I can’t imagine them getting better production out of whomever they put in LF than they got from Soriano this year.

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  40. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    With the Astros in the AL next year does anyone even think they won’t have the worst record in the NL? Without spending a lot of money they almost certainly will.

    That’s what sucks about being a Cubs fan right now. This team is going to suck for a long time.

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  45. Berselius

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    Soriano will probably be gone, too, and I can’t imagine them getting better production out of whomever they put in LF than they got from Soriano this year.

    I remain baffled that there wasn’t more interest in Adolfo, given what the Cubs were reportedly willing to pay. There must have been more demand that they get back anything in return.

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  55. mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Mike Trout: 7.7 WARP (best, by far)
    Andrew McCutchen: 5.4 (behind Posey and Braun)

    Trout: 8.6 fWAR (best, by far)
    McCutchen: 6.5 (behind Braun and Wright)

    Trout: 10.2 rWAR
    McCutchen: 6.4 (he’s 2nd in all of baseball)

    There is no comparison between Trout and the rest of MLB. Especially when you factor in Trout wasn’t called up until the end of April.

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  57. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    Yeah, I’d say it goes to Posey, but I think Braun will get some votes too. Wright might also. McCutchen would be fine if he won, but it’s not likely there aren’t a few other guys in the NL who are deserving of it too.

    With interleague play every day next season they need to do away with multiple awards. Just have one MVP, Cy, etc.

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  58. WaLi

    mb21 wrote:

    Especially when you factor in Trout wasn’t called up until the end of April.

    See this is where I disagree. He is lazy and doesn’t have the work ethic required of the MVP title so he took a whole month off.
    Sorry just saw he is white. I agree 100% He is so gritty and determined that he accomplished more in a shortened season than anyone else in the league.

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