Holy shit. It’s here. Let’s get straight to it.
Catcher
This is the first area where the advantage clearly rests with the Cubs. Yan Gomes has been a good player up until 2016, but in 2016 he was Heyward-esque. He was replaced by Roberto Perez, who also had a nice 2015 and an abysmal 2016. The Cubs have a Cerberus of talent back there.
Robert Perez hit .183/.285/.294 in the regular season, which was improbably good enough to merit him getting EVERY SINGLE START in the playoffs for the Indians. He had a nice ALDS and was basically worthless in the ALCS. He comes out well enough defensively (in fact, all of his value is generated there).
There are two things you can be happy about at the plate if you’re a Perez fan. The first is his patient approach: he’s drawn a walk in 12.1% of his lifetime plate appearances. The other is his ability to hit the ball all around; he is about as diverse as you can get. That said, there’s a lot of swing and miss to his game, and if you can keep the ball down, he’ll fail to do anything productive with the ball if he even makes contact with it at all. Offensively, he’s a 3 of 10 and defensively he’s a 7 of 10. Overall, (I weight catchers at 70% offense, 30% defense), that means he’s a 4.2 of 10.
Short aside: My offense measure is this: I give the best wOBA at a position 10 of 10. The average wOBA at that position is a 5 of 10. The difference in the opposite direction is a 0 of 10. That means if the high is .350, the league average is a .300, then a 0 of 10 is .250. Defense is a guesstimate.) I use projected wOBA for the season if a player has had less than 200 PA, as was the case with Perez.
For the Cubs, you’ve got the three-headed giant of Contreras, Montero, and Ross. I’m going to cover Contreras as exclusively a LF for the purposes of this exercise, but I bet he’ll catch at least one game (I’m imagining the normal lineup with Contreras in LF and Zobrist in RF.) That means I’ll count Ross and Montero as 3 starts each.
David Ross shouldn’t retire, man. He’s had the best year of his last 7 by WAR, and last 4 just by wOBA. He’s walking at the best rate since 2008, and he hit double-digit dingers for the first time since 2007. His defense was the best of his entire career (by rate). He should get Lester’s 2 starts; he might not get another because the entire rotation is right-handed. If Merritt starts Game 4 (Kluber is probably starting it on 3 days rest), that’s the only lefty that might start for Cleveland. Ross was a 7 of 10 with the bat and a 9 of 10 with the glove for a 7.6 of 10.
Montero, on the other hand, wasn’t as good. He was dinged up all year, and while the walks and strikeouts looked great, he had a little less power than last year and a way worse BABIP. I’m not super worried about him offensively (and he did hit a grand slam in the playoffs), but he is certainly beatable this year. Luckily for him, Cleveland is very right-handed in the rotation, and he is much better against righties. Offensively, I give him a 5 of 10 and defensively a 5 of 10 for a 5 of 10. Overall, that gives the Cubs a 6.3 of 10 at the position.
Cubs: 6.3
Indians: 4.2
First Base
Mike Napoli had a very Mike Napoli type of year. You pretty much know that you can depend on a low AVG, middle OBP, and a high SLG. He obliged, hitting .239/.335/.465 with 34 HR. He’s sort of unique in the fact that he’s a right-handed 1B, and he isn’t over-shiftable – he’s not afraid to go the other way with the ball if given the chance. He’ll take his walks and he’ll also strikeout a ton. Napoli should be worked away, and preferably by a lefty. He has a slightly exaggerated split, though he’s no slouch no matter what hand you throw with. Defensively, Napoli is among the worst defenders there are. Offensively, Napoli is a 5 of 10, and a 1 of 10 defensively. I give 10% weight to 1B, so he gets a 4.6 of 10.
Anthony Rizzo was near the top of the class offensively this year, not only as a first base but (as follows logically) as any hitter in baseball. He’s turned in the same year as the last 2, with 32 HR and a .292/.385/.544 line with very few strikeouts. He stole a lot fewer bases this year (3 from 17 last year), but who cares: you knwo that with Rizzo you’re getting downballot MVP numbers at the plate. Rizzo rates poorly with the glove by metrics, but some of that (I assume) is just that his 2Bs are regularly vacuum cleaners who rob him of opportunities. Rizzo gets a 9 of 10 with the bat and a 4 of 10 with the glove, for a 8.5 of 10.
Cubs: 8.5
Indians: 4.6
Second Base
Jason Kipnis might be too injured to play, but I’m working under the assumption that he’ll be the primary 2B. I feel like it’s a safe assumption given it’s the freaking World Series. Kipnis turned in another stellar year, continuing to make his contract look like a steal (he made $6M this year, which would have been his last arb year). Kip lost some of his OBP breakout from last year (down to .343 from .372), but made up for it with a huge power spike. He’s also the first left-handed pull hitter we’ve seen from Cleveland, so I imagine we’ll see the shift with him (or not – Maddon hasn’t shifted as much this year). There aren’t any easily exploitable holes in his swing, either: it’s on the staff to just execute their pitches (or attack him with a nuance beyond me). To compound things, he’s a good defender and doesn’t have exploitable platoon splits. Just a very good player. Offensively, he’s a 6 of 10 and defensively he’s a 7 of 10. I give 20% weight to D here and make him a 6.2 of 10.
Javier Baez might be having his coming out party. For the purposes of the WS, I’m just making him the everyday 2B. Defensively, let’s just get this out of the way. He’s the best defensive 2B there is, so I’m giving him a 10 of 10 there. He’ll make a head-scratching error, and he’ll also make 3 other plays that make you go “holy shit”. While it may not have seemed like it, though, he had 450 PA thi syear, and ended up more-or-less league average. .324 was the league pace for 2B wOBA; Baez was at .316. I’m willing to buy some improvement that culminated in a breakout, but he still walked once every 30 plate appearances will striking out 24% of the time. It’s hard to be more than average when you do that. I’m happy to be wrong here, but offensively the numbers have him at 4 of 10 with the bat. That gives him in overall of 5.2 of 10. Make me look stupid, Javy (it isn’t hard).
Cubs: 5.2
Indians: 6.2
Shortstop
In an alternate universe, I grew up 5 hours east of where I did and named my son Lindor. I hate to say it, but his star is a little brighter than that of Addison Russell (no knock on Russell). Lindor has a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball, and it culminates with a 12.9% strikeout rate this year with an 8.3% walk rate. As a 22 year old, he hit .301/.358/.435 with defensive in the Andrelton Simmons territory. There isn’t anything that he can’t do at least passably:(Addison has more power, but other than that Lindor is at parity or superior); he even hits from both sides of the plate. Offensively, Lindor is a 7 of 10 and defensively, he’s a 10 of 10. I give defense 30% weight for SS, so he’s a 7.9 of 10.
Russell isn’t a slouch at the plate, but he’s no Lindor. He’s a beast defensively, but I still have him as a slightly worse than Lindor (9 of 10). Russell is a 5 of 10 with the bat (almost exactly the league average at the position at .316 compared to .312), which makes him a 6.2 of 10.
Cubs: 6.2
Indians 7.9
Third Base
Jose Ramirez was a complete revelation this season. While he was always known for having Gwynn-like contact rates, he struggled to do much of anything with the stick (mostly due to weak contact. Then, in a full season, his Soft% went from 19.4 to 14.4%, his BABIP went up from .232 to .333, and his wOBA went from .280 to .355! It was an incredible offensive year from Ramirez, who also chipped in with 22 SB. Another switch-hitter, Ramirez is slightly choosy with his swings, but he almost never misses contact. In fact, on breaking pitches, he misses on only 16% of offerings. That’s really low. You want to stay away from the low, inside pitch as a lefty, as that’s where he’ll do his damage. In either case, it’s safer to work up and toward the right-handed batter’s side of the plate. Offensively, Ramirez was a 7 of 10 this year. Defensively (20% of value for 3B), he was just about the most average there was, so 5 of 10. That makes him a 6.6 of 10 overall.
Of course, then you have Kris Bryant. While Donaldson has a higher wOBA, Bryant wasn’t far behind. He was .292/.385/.554 at the plate, and only a cold last month kept him from a trinity slash. Bryant will strike out, of course, but he’ll also hit the ball a long, long way. Here’s somethign cool: if you lead off a Bryant PA with a strike, he still hits .278/.352/.485. You already know that Bryant is an MVP. He’s a 10 of 10 with the bat, a 9 of 10 (thanks to Machado, Beltre, and Turner), and an overall beast at 9.8 of 10.
Cubs: 9.8
Indians: 6.6
Left Field
Coco Crisp has been playing a long time. He broke in with the Indians in 2002, and his on one last ride with them. He’s definitely a weak spot for this team. He can hit from both sides of the plate, but not all that well (.231/.302/.397 this year). He had surprising pop this season, but he is overall not the offensive profile you’d want from a LF. Furthermore, he can’t do any damage if you just keep the ball low. Crisp seems exactly like the hitter our team wants to face, over and over again. Offensively, he’s 4 of 10. Defensively, he’s a 3 of 10. I have 10% value in defense here, so I give Crisp a 3.9 of 10.
Willson Contreras is going to be the full-time LF for the purposes of this discussion. He’s been on fire these playoffs, which is nice to see. I definitely haven’t given Contreras his due for an excellent rookie season. He was on pace for 25 HR this year, and a slash of .282/.357/.488 is extremely impressive. Combine that with the ability to be passable (which I didn’t expect) behind the plate and you’ve got a huge stud in the making. They just never end in this organization.
(Aside, apropos of nothing: Jim Croce (who I’m listening to while typing this) was really awesome. Wish he didn’t pass so early, and tragically. That’s all.)
There’s a clear rookie of the year (Corey Seager, who should also finish 2nd or even 1st in MVP voting this season). After that, it’s entirely defensible to but Contreras anywhere from 2nd to 6th. Offensively (at LF, where he’ll play this series), he’s a 7 of 10. Defensively, he’s a 7 of 10. That’s a total of 7 of 10.
Cubs: 7.0
Indians: 3.9
Center Field
Tyler Naquin was a freaking awesome rookie this year. In 365 PA this year, he hit .296/.372/.514 with 14 bombs. He’s not a great defender, but when you hit like that, no one really minds too much. The one thing you can say is that Naquin thinks that strikeouts only count for half: he swings a prodigious amount of the time, and it resulted in a strikeout rate of 30.7% this season. That’s higher than Baez’ career rate. He’s a pull hitter on anything but a fastball, where he’s often late and goes the other way. In any case, he can put a hurt on the ball. A lefty, he’s got a golf swing. If you pitch him down, you deserve the pain that comes your way. He can’t catch up to anything up; you can even put it over the plate if you just make damn sure you aren’t low. You can imagine a game turning on Naquin’s bat, which is not something you would have imagined at the beginning of this season.
Offensively, his .374 wOBA is good for 8 of 10 (thanks Mike Trout for depressing that for everyone) defensively (20% of worth) he’s a liability (3 of 10). That’s a 7 of 10.
Dexter Fowler, crazily enough, had a lower wOBA then Naquin (albeit by 7 points). They couldn’t have arrived there more differently; Fowler walks a ton more and strikes out a ton less. If you though Fowler’s .350 BABIP was unsustainable, you ain’t seen nothing yet; Naquin had a .411 (!!!!). Fowler’s OBP led the non-Trout division for CF at .393. He’s such a good player that he should get the 2017 “whoa, he got $100 million” contract. He’ll also be the test case in my theory that the Cubs are on the bleeding edge with proprietary defensive data. He was bad in the field before the Cubs and good with them. He’s 8 of 10 with the stick, 6 of 10 with the glove, and 7.6 overall.
Cubs: 7.6
Indians: 7.0
Right Field
Lonnie Chisenhall is another extremely league-average hitter. Batting lefty, he went .286/.328/.439 with the bat (.263/.311/.424 for his career), and didn’t really have any power (especially for a RF). He’s a pull hitter, but not one with any particular teeth. He’s one of the least exciting players in all of baseball, but nonetheless a great candidate for the Marco Scutaro “how the fuck did this guy beat us” award. Offensively 5 of 10, defensively 5 of 10 (20% of value), 5 of 10 overall. Snore.
This might be controversial, but I have Zobrist as the primary RF for this series. I just don’t see how Heyward gets the nod given how high the stakes are and how bad he’s been. Zobrist has little defensive value, but he can play RF well enough to be average there. He’s great on getting on base, and he walked more than he struck out this year (one of my most favorite traits). Don’t sleep on the power, either, his career ISO is .167. Offensively, he’s 8 of 10. Defensively, he’s a 5 of 10. That gives him a 7.4.
Cubs: 7.4
Indians: 5.0
Designated Hitter/Bench
Carlos Santana is a great hitter. He had 99 walks and 99 strikeouts this year (which is so freaking cool, again). A .259/.366/.498 line with 34 HR will get you basically everywhere you want to go in life. He bats well from either side (seriously, the Indians have so many switch hitters and lefties it’s ridiculous), he’s super patient, and he’ll hit the ball everywhere. He doesn’t have a weak spot. Santana can put some hurt into the ball. He’s a 7 of 10 offensively. That’s sort of underselling, considering how good he is. Blame Gary Sanchez and David Ortiz.
The bench for the Indians is ok. Rajai Davis is a fast OF guy. No one else really plays. For a bench, I’d give it a standard 5 of 10.
How the hell do you forecast Kyle Schwarber? He’s going to DH, and I’m inclined not to believe the fairytale story here. Other players need a spring training and sometimes weeks in the regular season. He had 2 games in the AFL. I think I’m giving him a 4 of 10, and that’s only that high because they’ll put Coghlan in there if they need to. The bench is superb, and it gets a 7 of 10.
Cubs: 4.0/7.0
Indians: 7.0/5.0
Cubs overall: 69 of 100
Indians overall: 57.4 of 100
That seems about right to be. The Indians are a good team on the hitting side, but the Cubs are just a class above. Add in the fact that the Cubs are historically great defensively, and you get a clear advantage here.
The caveat, of course, is a) it’s a 7-game series and b) what the hell do I know?
Comments
He was no Esmailin Caridad, that’s for sure.
berseliusQuote Reply
By Grabthar’s Hammer, Manny Corpas made 48 appearances for the 2012 Cubs.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m not sure how special this lady friend can be if she doesn’t like baseball, but that’s just me.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles, could you help me place this call?
berseliusQuote Reply
Nice
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
Eh, it don’t bother me that much. Sometimes it’s almost better that way. Just not this week (dying laughing).
mobile daveQuote Reply
Preview going up at 11 or so tomorrow
berseliusQuote Reply
I get all the best spam
SKQuote Reply
SK,
clearly not spam
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
hey dmick, the login issue appears to be back (although i am currently in a nother country so maybe that has something to do with it?)
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
on the plus side, i can now sign myles up for the Jonas Brothers Fanfiction Archive
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
It’s very cute that you won the NLCS, Cubs, but you’re going to have to do better than that to get one over on me.
RynoQuote Reply
You left out the Movies category, in which you break down the Major League franchise vs Rookie of the Year.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Re: Schwarber
I think it’s a strange move, but it seems like every time I think a move by the Cubs is a head scratcher, it turns into a great move by them. This goes all the way back to when they thought it was a good idea to move Samardzija from a RP to a SP.
I doubt that Schwarber being a DH is a good move, but I’m totally prepared for a first PA HR.
MillertimeQuote Reply
That email has already been used.
mylesQuote Reply
The Schwarber DH move is kind of a headscratcher. I can’t imagine that they’d do it if they didn’t think it would pay concrete dividends. But even without Schwarber they could slot Soler or (if he isn’t catching) Contreras into the DH position and have good hitter there and a good defensive outfield. I can totally see having him on the roster if he’s ready to play, and using him as a pinch hitter, I’m just surprised he’s starting.
UrkQuote Reply
If they aren’t going to DH Schwarber, there’s no point in having him on the roster. To put it another way, if he isn’t well enough to hit better than Soler or Contreras, they’d be better of carrying someone who can field. And if he truly is ready to mash baseballs, this Cubs lineup is truly amazing.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s officially official, Schwarber is on the roster
berseliusQuote Reply
Urk,
Could just be that the brain trust thinks there’s an emotional/psychological lift for the team by putting him in there. Maybe Joe also doesn’t want to DH Contreras to retain the extra flexibility at C. Just spitballing here. I’m sure the entire team is feeling pretty loose and pretty good right now.
It could also be that they’re confident enough in their models that adding Schwarber either helps or doesn’t hurt their probability of winning the series, and they want to give him a chance to play after he missed the entire season. That’s got to feel pretty awesome for Schwarber, and it probably sends a hell of a message to players outside of the organization about how the Cubs take care of their own.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Kind of neat: when Dexter Fowler leads off tonight, he’ll be the first black Cubs player in a World Series. Also crazy to realize that their last WS appearance was pre-integration.
PerkinsQuote Reply
No. If Schwarber is on the roster, it means the Cubs think he’s healthy enough to play, and he’s the best option for DH. There’s no mystery here.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maybe the Cubs are overestimating Schwarber’s recovery. But they’re in a better position to evaluate him than we are, and their faith in him is a very good sign. I just don’t get the people saying, “I wonder what the Cubs are trying to do here?” They’re trying to put the best lineup on the field. That is all.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That’s my feeling too. I think some of us (self included) are thinking we know better than the best FO in baseball about how ready their players are.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Perkins,
One wonders if Baez will be the first Latino Cub in the WS — but I know the history there is not as, um, black and white.
A Cuban player named Jorge Comellas was on the roster briefly in 1945, but not in October.
SKQuote Reply
Interesting to see BN go into minor meltdown over the fact the bars in Wrigleyville are going to $100 cover charges this weekend.
smh. It’s supply and demand, kiddos. It ain’t a fuckin’ mystery.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
If it was August, Schwarber would get some more games in the minors, because every game isn’t must-win.
There’s only seven games left, so that aint happening.
SKQuote Reply
Yeah, at this point it seems best not to second guess this front office. Having had an ACL tear, the recovery took longer than 6 months and I’ve never made it all the way back to where I was, but I also didn’t have the type of resources that Kyle Schwarber has at his disposal.
Here’s hoping he hits a monster HR or two and doesn’t have to run hard.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I’m up for a Kirk Gibson type moment.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Way to focus on what’s important, Cubs fans.
I wouldn’t even go to one of those bars during the regular season. I like my baseball relatively sober, maybe with some delicious food.
SKQuote Reply
It still does suck. I’m a cheapass, but was planning on going down there for Game 4. I still will, it just won’t be in one of the bars.
mylesQuote Reply
It may end up not working out, but I don’t think they’d let emotion and sentimentality get in the way at the point where it’s so crucial that it doesn’t.
I figure they’re thinking, hey, he can’t be any worse than Heyward, and if we’re in a situation where we “need” Zas, we’re likely fucked that game anyway. This is making the most of the 25th man with a pure upside play. And even though he seems certain to draw the start game 1, I would imagine the second Kluber is pulled for Miller (if it comes to that), he gets taken down for Contreras. And if he looks like utter dogshit, Joe can always go another direction game 2. Once we hit Wrigley, he’s PH-only. I’m more than fine with that.
I also think there might be something to the psychological boost seeing him up there might have for the team. FO thinks that’s important.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
” I just don’t get the people saying, “I wonder what the Cubs are trying to do here?” They’re trying to put the best lineup on the field. That is all.”
Yeah, obvs. That’s what I meant by saying that obviously they wouldn’t do it if they weren’t sure it would pay concrete dividends. And I’m definitely not claiming to know more than the front office. But maybe its a little tiny bit surprising that the best lineup to put on the field includes giving a guy who hasn’t played in a game situation for 160-odd games multiple at-bats? Just a tiny bit? That’s all I’m saying. Perkins point about retaining the extra flexibility by not putting Contreras there is helpful.
UrkQuote Reply
It would have been difficult either way. I was down in Lincoln Park and some buddies tried to get into the Wrigley bars 3 hours before gametime. They were all 2+ hour waits to get in. Barleycorn, HVAC, etc (not just Cubby Bear & Murphy’s).
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I think using Schwarber is tactical move based on the tendencies of Indians pitching. Soler is a good waist high and above hitter. He gets in trouble on pitches down. Kluber pounds the lower half.
Schwarber on the other hand handles low pitches really well.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
It does suck. But the alternative is camping out Black-Friday-style well in advance. There are no good options.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
So if the Cubs win the WS, does Sosa finally get to come back?
MillertimeQuote Reply
Definitely. At this point, I’m trying for figure out how drunk I can be on the streets without getting arrested. A friend of mine is even considering calling CPD and asking what the policy will be for Game 4.
mylesQuote Reply
Yeah, this. This FO is good but they make mistakes, and I have no problem calling them out when I think I see them. We’re not BN over here. I’d be happy to be just as wrong on this one as I was on the Zobrist and Lackey signings (dying laughing). Based on what we know I don’t get this, and I don’t put too much weight on inferring what the FO knows.
berseliusQuote Reply
Sounds the like the most prudent course.
Since I’m of especially questionable judgment when liquored up, I shall do humanity a favor and not subject it to my presence during WS games.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Millertime,
I used to think it was Kerry Wood’s influence keeping him away, but he has said some nice things about Sammy in recent years. It’s probably some combo of the opinions of Ricketts or Crane, the results of fan surveys, and/or Sammy’s own willingness/availability that have kept him away all this time.
SKQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/cubs-set-world-series-roster/
dmick89Quote Reply