The Cubs completed the abbreviated 2-game sweep over the Brewers yesterday. They still have 13 of the next 16 at home. Kris Bryant rolled his ankle rounding the bases early in yesterday's extremely long game. He underwent an MRI for precautionary reasons and isn't expected to miss much time. I'd be surprised if it's more than a day or two.
The Braves just suck. There's really not much else to say. It's the league's best team against the league's worst team. The Braves have scored 74 runs, which isn't even the lowest in MLB. The Cubs have scored 130 (Cardinals 137). The Cubs have hit 27 home runs to the Braves 4.
Team Leaders
Braves
- OBP: Nick Markakis (.412)
- ISO: Markakis (.134)
- HR: Freddie Freeman (2)
- R+RBI: Markakis (28)
- wRC+: Markakis (130)
- BSR: Drew Stubbs (1.4)
- SP K/9: Jhoulys Chacin (9.41)
- SP BB/9: Chacin (1.64)
- SP FIP: Chacin (1.56)
- RP K/9: Arodys Vizcaino (14.63)
- RP BB/9: Jason Grilli (9.0)
- RP FIP: Arodys Vizcaino (0.96)
- WAR: Chacin (1.0)
Cubs
- OBP: Dexter Fowler (.473)
- ISO: Anthony Rizzo (.373)
- HR: Rizzo (8)
- R+RBI: Rizzo (38)
- wRC+: Tommy La Stella (196), minimum 20 PA
- BSR: Jason Heyward (2.7)
- SP K/9: John Lackey (9.59)
- SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (1.57)
- SP FIP: Jason Hammel (2.52)
- RP K/9: Hector Rondon (16.0)
- RP BB/9: Rondon and Justin Grimm (0.00)
- RP FIP: Rondon (-0.56)
- WAR: Fowler (1.9)
Pitching Matchups
K/9, BB/9, 2016 ERA, 2016 FIP, 2016 projected ERA listed for all pitchers
Friday: Aaron Blair, RHP (1.69, 3.38, 5.06, 3.86, 4.16) vs Jon Lester, LHP (7.57, 1.65, 1.98, 3.40, 3.11), 1:20 PM CT
Blair has only made one MLB start in his career (this season). The numbers listed above are for only 5.1 innings. In the minors he hasn't struckout many batters since 2014. He was at around 18% strikeout rate last season in AA and AAA in the Dbacks organization. His walk rate was around 7.5%. He won't kill himself with the walk and won't overpower too many hitters. The Cubs should have a good day against this guy
Lester has been pitching really well. It's nice to see him off to a strong start. He finished last season in typical Lester fashion, but the early season struggles made his overall numbers a bit less appealing than I'd like to have seen in his first year in the organization.
Fivethirtyeight Odds of Winning: 74%
Saturday: Julio Teheran, RHP (7.67, 3.38, 4.60, 4.74, 3.84) vs John Lackey, RHP (7.86, 2.13, 4.97, 3.22, 3.40), 1:20 PM CT
Teheran got off to a really good start in his career, but his strikeout rates have declined and his walk rates have increases. He's still a solid pitcher, but doesn't have nearly the potential he did a few years ago. He's given up 32 home runs since the start of the 2015 season.
Lackey has kind of been up and down so far this season. He had a really good start, but he's had a few bad ones. The Cubs have scored enough in his starts that it hasn't mattered (he's 3-1 in 4 starts). It's very early in the season, but so far his groundball rate is down quite a lot. I'm not too worried about his HR/FB rate yet, which is also high. However, his strikeout rate of 26.5% is the best in his career. His walk rate is basically the same as it's been the last few years (5.9%). If I had only two stats for pitchers, I'd choose K% and BB% and by those measures, Lackey is off to a fantastic start. I don't know how Lackey has done it, but his fastball velocity is nearly identical year in and year out according to Pitch F/X. Considering his age, that's impressive.
Fivethirtyeight Odds of Winning: 70%
Sunday: Matt Wisler, RHP (6.75, 2,48, 4.26, 4.72, 4.60) vs Jason Hammel, RHP (8.25, 3.38, 0.75, 2.52, 3.84), 1:20 PM CT
Wisler throws harder than the other two Braves throwing in this series, but not exactly hard. His average fastball velocity last year was 93.3, which is pretty good for a starter and it's 92.6 this year. He doesn't strike out enough hitters, but does have really good control. If I was going to pick a game the Cubs were to lose in his series, I'd go with this game just because Wisler doesn't seem like the kind of pitcher who could end up playing into the Cubs greatest strength offensively: its patience.
Hammel is off to another terrific start. His walk rate is higher than usual (highest since he was with Maddon back in Tampa Bay), but it's a very small sample. Hammel should probably mix in some bad starts because if he keeps pitching this well, people are going to accuse him of taking performance enhancing drugs.