To judge from all the negative buzz I've seen around the interwebs heading into this series, you'd think that Zambrano is starting all three games and Cubs fans should boo the crap out of him. However, he is slated to start zero games in this series. Which is a bummer, because I love watching Z pitch.
Team Overviews
(NL ranks in parens)
Marlins | Cubs | |
wOBA | .305 (11th) | .298 (15th) |
BSR | -2.6 (12th) | 2.8 (5th) |
UZR | -17.1 (13th) | 11.9 (3rd) |
DRS | -17 (12th) | +12 (4th) |
SP FIP | 3.75 (8th) | 4.02 (12th) |
RP FIP | 3.76 (7th) | 4.74 (16th) |
I'm surprised that the Marlins bullpen numbers aren't much lower, given how much of disaster Heath Bell has been this year. The Marlins and Cubs bullpens have posted the same ERA despite wildly different FIP. The Cubs pen maintains its solid lead for the worst in the majors, though after park effects are included the Cardinals pen is right behind.
Position Players
Giancarlo Stanton has been the main cog in the Marlins offense. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he had knee surgery at the beginning of July and is missing a month. Luckily his replacement, Justin Ruggiano, has been tearing the cover off the ball with a .385/.452/.736 (!!) line in 106 PAs. Between the two of them they've provided 34.5 wRAA for the Marlins. Their next "best" hitter has been the disappointing Hanley Ramirez, who has posted a .246/.323/.424 line, while big offseason acquisition Jose Reyes has outdone him with an anemic .264/.335/.374. In 555 PAs, John Buck, Gaby Sanchez, and Chris Coglan have combined to post -30.8 wRAA, pretty much wiping out the monster seasons of Stanton and Ruggiano. It's not really clear what happened with Sanchez, who was a solid 2-3 WAR guy in 2010 and 2011. He's 29 right now so he could be a cautionary tale for anyone kicking the tires on Bryan LaHair, though for what it's worth most of Sanchez's value derived from OBP unlike LaHair's monster SLG.
Injury Update
Stanton is the only impact injury of note for the Marlins, though they are also without Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez), who has a sprained UCL, and former Cub and Kevin Gregg trade piece Jose Ceda, who had yet another injury early in the year and is out for the season with TJS.
Aside from Stewart no one of significance is currently on the Cubs injury list. Lendy Castillo is recovering from a severe case of David Patton disease in the AZL.
Pitching Matchups
Tuesday: Anibal Sanchez, RHP (4.12, 3.43, 3.58, 3.50) vs Travis Wood, LHP (3.05, 4.69, 4.54, 4.15), 7:05 PM CT
Sanchez is best remembered for a particularly awful walk-filled no-hitter he threw a few years ago and probably qualifies for the Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame. After that infamous no-hitter and many injury struggles, he's been a quietly great pitcher for the Marlins in the past two plus seasons. After walking everything in sight early in his career, he settled down and even shockingly brought his walk rate below 3 BB/9 last year. He's had some troubles with strand rate this year but has generally been solid. I think people are going to be very surprised at the huge contract he's going to get as a FA this offseason.
Wood's numbers are still very skewed by that 4 HR performance against the Padres pitching with 30+ mph winds blowout out of the park. Since then he's been a very solid pitcher, and has done much to slience the Sean Marshall deal critics. He's gone deeper into games as the season has progressed and looks like he'll be holding down a cost-controlled spot in the rotation for seasons to come.
Wednesday: Josh Johnson, RHP (4.28, 3.07, 3.56, 2.91) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.71, 3.65, 3.51, 4.08), 7:05 PM CT
Tommny John surgery never slowed Johnson down. I thought he missed all of last year, but he actually managed to throw 60 innings (9 starts). The guy is a pitching machine. He's had some trouble with BABIP this year but he's the True Ace that he was before the surgery.
When last I checked in, Samardzija was getting rocked by everyone and his brother and it looked like he was untransformed. It turned out that he was just working on a new curveball (pfx agreed). In a season like this one, why not? He ended his experiment and promptly struck out eleven Braves in seven innings, and threw a quality start against the Mets in his last start ten days ago. Samardzija is already at 101 innings on the year after throwing 80, 120, and 123 in the previous three seasons so arm fatigue might be setting in over the next few weeks.
Thursday: Mark Buehrle, LHP (3.13, 3.75, 3.97, 3.92) vs Paul Maholm, LHP (4.33, 4.33, 4.30, 4.07), 1:20 PM CT
Buehrle's pretty much the same guy he's always been: work fast, throw strikes, put the ball in play. His strikeout rate has jumped from the pathetic ~4.5 K/9 from his last few years with the Sox to 5.44 now that he has some pitchers to strike out. He's actually been on an odd strikeout tear, striking out 29 batters in his last 28.2 innings.
When last I looked at Maholm's numbers his FIP was pretty terrible. Since then he's had a string og 5-6 strikeout, 1 walk, 0 HR, ~7 IP games. I can't wait until a team like the Indians or Orioles makes a dumb trade for him at the deadline then promptly loses 20 of their next 25 games.
Comments
MishSK wrote:Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Nice snark.
MishQuote Reply
Jose Bautista and Joey Votto are going to the DL. David Ortiz might. Basically every great hitter is hurt.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Tony Campana isn’t.
mb21Quote Reply
Mish wrote:
Blegh. This would have been a good place to call you “The Snark Knight”.
MishQuote Reply
Theo’s stalker
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-woman-accused-of-stalking-cubs-boss-20120717,0,2295809.story
mb21Quote Reply
GMs get all the babes.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
The injury bug will catch him soon enough. He can run but he can’t hide.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Thanks for pushing up our Pizza Hut MILF search rankings
BerseliusQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Not objectively hot.
MLBTR ———–> only 1 sandwich pick for losing FA w/qualifying offer (unlike what was said earlier)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/the-new-draft-pick-compensation-system.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
That’s really strange. The signing team loses the pick but the old team doesn’t get it. So it still has first round value to the team that signs the player
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
You get one sandwich pick, but you also get the other team’s 1st round pick.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
The other team doesn’t get the pick? What the fuck?
mb21Quote Reply
That changes things. I think Dempster will be traded now. Those are just bizarre rules.
mb21Quote Reply
i see Theo’s stalker shops at the same dress store as the former Mrs Sandberg
dylanjQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
The article I linked to says you don’t get the other team’s 1st round pick – it simply disappears and the 1st round gets contracted.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ mb21:
For sure that makes it seem more likely. That makes more sense of all this “traded within the week” talk.
joshQuote Reply
http://deadspin.com/5926561/i-hope-tim-tebow-rapes-a-kid-and-other-completely-sane-penn-state-fan-reactions-to-paternovilles-renaming?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
billingsley to the dl for the dodgers
GWQuote Reply
We should just start naming people who are not going to the DL.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Bautista
Longoria
Stanton
Ortiz
Lowrie
Gardner
GBTSQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
that’s new, right? i don’t ever remember that and i feel like i would because it’s pretty bizarre.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
wow…brutal. i feel for you…my best SP so far this year has been brandon morrow (who i dropped like a month ago due to injury). my other pitchers are lincecum, haren, josh johnson, and cliff lee. not really a tone of injuries there but they’ve all sucked far, far beyond my expectations.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ Mish:
GBTSQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
My pitching is pretty mediocre sans Strasburg, so I’m holding onto every one to at least have depth in case the Nats really do shut him down in September.
So, for the time being, I’m not starting a 1B or a Utility. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
matt garza and ryan dempster
GWQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
The family for Paterno will conduct its own investigation (on the forum here: http://obstructedview.net/forum.html?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=110.0#postid-1534)
mb21Quote Reply
As much as I still like Z and miss his presence on the team, I’m glad he’s not slated to pitch. He would have been ruthlessly reviled by the Wrigley crowd.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Just doesn’t translate to Spanish.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Maybe they can get the guy OJ hired to help find the real killers.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Some Puerto Rican guy?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://deadspin.com/5926617/why-aaron-cook-and-his-two-strikeouts-are-a-nightmare-for-sabermetrics
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Yes it does: Esa es una pregunta payaso, chamo.
No need for the “puto, ” it’s just a superfluous profanity here, and chamo, at least for speakers of Venezuelan Spanish, is a closer to the colloquial meaning of “bro.”
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Miles just posted this on FB:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing) I just posted the same thing on the forum.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Wow, did Sully never eat his vegetables?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
“Kill the Hobbit, Kill the Hobbit..”
Sung to the tune of the classic “Kill the wabbit.” of Looney Tunes fame.
frysredjacketQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Apparently he hasn’t been having his Ent-draughts.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He could use some elevensies.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Looks like Paul has been having plenty of second-breakfasts
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Sullivan looks even smaller than usual in that picture. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Paywall free Miles runs down the Cubs’ options when/if Dempster and Garza are traded: http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/7006
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Take note, all Venezuelan memes run through MO first from now on. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
i’d bet good money that big Z is seriously contemplating murdering sully with his bare hands in that pic.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Dolis struck a guy out!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I imagine it went something similar to this:
http://www.videosurf.com/video/carlito%60s-way-if-i-ever-see-you-here-again-1230292000
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
That was supposed to be a response to Enrico, not Rizzo.
GBTSQuote Reply
From that Miles blog:
DJ? MB? Anyone got a read on this Jokisch?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Roy is pitching!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I mean Doc. Though Oswalt is also pitching now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I want to punch Roy Oswalt in the mouth.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Doc strikes out the first 2 batters looking.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Prior to this year I’d have said he looks pretty decent, but his sub 4 k/9 this year is absolutely pathetic. We could expect some regression, but I’m guessing at this point he’d be lucky to amount to anything. That’s an awful strikeout rate.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Aaron Cook is in awe.
mb21Quote Reply
The Tigers just got shut out for the first time all season. If I’m not mistaken, that means no MLB team escaped being shut out this season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
OMGSTEROIDSPEDSHOFWHHHHAAAARRRRGGGARRRBBBLLLL
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I guess Wood didn’t do so well? When I left for my walk, the game was close.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Roy’s in trouble now. He could take lessons from Mr. Cook.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s 2008 and the opponent is the Rockies. Let’s do this!!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Looks like you came back just in time for the comeback attempt.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
4 straight hits against Halladay.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’m looking for Cubs rally caps on Google and two of the first ten pictures are of Aisley (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Why the fuck does it say “foul bunt” with the Cubs down four!?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
DeJesus actually tried to bunt with the infield playing back. Not a terrible idea according to Pat.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Bring in Heath Bell!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ josh:
You want baserunners is why. Extra bases don’t matter.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Andrew McCutchen: .375/.427/.659
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
OK. Had me worried for an instant. I was really hoping Rizzo would come through there.
joshQuote Reply
Clevenger is playing third base?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Couldn’t tell on GAmeday. I thought he was sacrificing.
joshQuote Reply
Aroldis Chapman has 80 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings. I still think he relies on his fastball too much.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
He’s the new Koyie.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Is he the best player in baseball?
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Hard to say, though he’s having the best year of anyone.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Who’s that efficient reliever the Marlins brought in who looked like Heath Bell?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I guess every 25 years the Pirates get the best player in the game.
mb21Quote Reply
New Comic: http://obstructedview.net/comics/of-cubs-and-men.html
joshQuote Reply