Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (0-0) at Texas Rangers (0-0)

In Series Previews by berselius73 Comments

The crack of the bat! the roar of the crowd! Baseball’s back at WYNX WSCR.
*waves tiny flag*

It will be great to have Pat Hughes back in my earballs, no matter how ambivalent I feel about the upcoming season. At least with my win prediction in the podcast that ones of you likely listened to, I have seized the mantle of OV’s resident optimist

The Rangers are not projected to be very good, so hopefully the Cubs can get off to a good start.

Team Leaders

I’ll use the teams’ 2018 numbers here (excluding injured/departed players), since looking at a bunch of zeros is boring.

Cubs

  • OBP: Ben Zobrist (.378)
  • ISO: El Mago (.264)
  • HR: Baez (34)
  • R+RBI: Baez (212)
  • wRC+: Baez (131)
  • BSR: Jason Heyward (4.3)
  • DRS: Albert Almora (9)
  • SP K/9: Yu Darvish (11.03)
  • SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (1.99)
  • SP FIP: Cole Hamels (3.42)
  • RP FIP: Carl Edwards Jr (11.60)
  • RP BB/9: Pedro Strop (3.17)
  • RP FIP: Edwards (2.93)
  • WAR: Baez (5.3)

Rangers

  • OBP: Shin-Soo Choo (.377)
  • ISO: Joey Gallo (.929 .292)
  • HR: Gallo (40)
  • R+RBI: Gallo (174)
  • wRC+: Choo (118)
  • BSR: Delino DeShields Jr (4.0)
  • DRS: Rougned Odor (10)
  • SP K/9: Cole Hamels Mike Minor (7.57)
  • SP BB/9: Minor (2.18)
  • SP FIP: Minor (4.43)
  • RP K/9: Jose LeClerc (13.79)
  • RP BB/9: Chris Martin (1.08)
  • RP FIP: LeClerc (1.90)
  • WAR: Gallo (2.8)

Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.

All the Cubs moves were made last season. The only significant on field action was picking up Hamels’s $20m option. The Cubs were too busy shooting themselves in the foot while counting money to do anything else this offseason.

The Rangers picked up long time serviceable Cardinals starter Lance Lynn on a cheap deal in the offseason, as well as vets Asdrubal Cabrera and Jesse Chavez, who was basically begging to come back to the Cubs.

Pitching Probables

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher.

Thursday: Jon Lester, LHP (7.73, 2.89, 3.97) vs Mike Minor, LHP (7.35, 2.52, 4.49), 3:05 PM CT

Despite all the optimism talk above, one player I am not particularly optimistic about is Jon Lester. All of the Cubs starters can be summed up as “probably okay”, but Lester seems like the guy most likely to fall to the back of the pack this year. He’s more than earned his contract though, so it is what it is.

Minor is the best pitcher in the Texas rotation, which kind of says why they’re projected to win 71 games or so. He was pretty solid with the Braves until shoulder problems cost him the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He worked as a reliever in 2017 and was pretty solid as a starter in TEX last year, getting better as the season went on. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, so I’m not sure if that helps or hurts guys like Kris Bryant.

Saturday: Yu Darvish, RHP (10.42, 3.26, 3.76) vs Edinson Volquez, RHP (6.29, 4.57, 5.14) 7:05 PM CT

Darvish feels like the key to the Cubs having a good year or not. Hopefully he gets off to a hot start. He supposedly had a great spring, for the 200,000 lira that’s worth. He’s been dealing with a blister problem for the past week or so unfortunately, but is on track to make this start.

Volquez is living the dream of chasing Edwin Jackson in the number of uniforms that he has worn over the course of his career. He made 17 starts last year for the Marlins and was okay-ish. Suffice to say the projection systems are not big believers in his stuff. He’s back with his original team now, and maybe this is the season he finally wins ROY.

Sunday: Cole Hamels, LHP (8.07, 3.12, 3.71) vs Lance Lynn, RHP (7.77, 4.01, 4.50), 3:05 PM CT

ZiPS at least likes Hamels a lot. He sucked with the Rangers last year, largely on the back of an absurd HR/FB of 20%, but turned things around since coming to the Cubs in midseason posting a 2.36 ERA in 12 starts. His FIP over that stretch was 3.42 so he had a little help, but the big thing was the huge drop on gopher balls after he left Arlington. He reportedly changed up his pitch mix as well, and hopefully he can eat some innings in 2019.

It was a little surprising to see the Cardinals let Lynn go, and for him to remain unsigned for so long going into last season. His peripherals were pretty lousy in 2017 though, and his 2018 numbers reflected it. Still, he is probably the current avatar of the Serviceable Starter archetype right now, and got 3/30 from the Rangers this offseason.

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Comments

  1. BVS

    I knew Edwards had a hot and cold season last year, but didn’t really how much so until looking at the FIPs you reported above.

    Cubs win 93 this year. Bank on it.

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  2. Joshua Allen

    I have no idea what the Cubs will do this year. They seem like a team capable of winning 100 or winning 75 and you wouldn’t be surprised either way.

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  7. GW

    Joshua Allen:
    I have no idea what the Cubs will do this year. They seem like a team capable of winning 100 or winning 75 and you wouldn’t be surprised either way.

    They are not objectively hot.

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  10. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Almora
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    SS Baez
    C Contreras
    2B Bote
    DH Zobrist
    RF Heyward
    LF Zagunis

    SP Lester

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  15. dmick89

    berselius,

    That looks like a much worse team than I expected them to look. I am now updating my win prediction to 76. Could be less if the Cubs are out of it at the deadline and deal some players. At least we got have to a dynasty of slightly fewer than two years. That was a blast.

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  20. andcounting

    dmick89,

    That’s actually one of the best possible scenarios for the Cubs this year. If they’re completely out of it at the deadline and any of their starting rotation (or someone like Rizzo or Zobrist) gets dealt for prospects? They could get a decent return for a lot of them and be in good shape moving forward.

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  25. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    berselius,

    That looks like a much worse team than I expected them to look. I am now updating my win prediction to 76. Could be less if the Cubs are out of it at the deadline and deal some players. At least we got have to a dynasty of slightly fewer than two years. That was a blast.

    Eh. It will be a mite disappointing if the best has already come and gone, but it’s still not been a bad few years to be a Cubs fan. And to be honest, if you had given me the choice back in 2011 between one World Series win in the Theo Era (with decline on its way not too long after) and multiple years of 100 wins but no guarantee of a World Series, I’d have probably taken the guaranteed W.

    I was in this for the last great sports catharsis. If I’d been in this game for dynasties, I certainly wouldn’t have thrown my lot in with the Cubs way back when.

    That all being said, fuck the Cubs. Harper should’ve already hit his first HR.

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  31. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: if you had given me the choice back in 2011 between one World Series win in the Theo Era (with decline on its way not too long after) and multiple years of 100 wins but no guarantee of a World Series, I’d have probably taken the guaranteed W.

    I’m not sure how I’d answer this. How many 100 win seasons? No guarantee does not mean they would not win one. If they had 5 or 6 100 win teams in a row, odds are pretty high they’d have won a championship. So I think it depends.

    To be honest, I’m not that upset with how the big league team has performed since Thoyer took over. They won a championship and have been really good for several years. I’m more disappointed in the fact that they’ve wasted some money on shitty players and the farm system is a fucking mess. it’s as bad as it was when Hendry was fired.

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  40. dmick89

    SK:
    Cardinals lose

    Normally I’d want the lesser team to win, but I think the Brewers are far and away the best team in this division so the Cubs best chance to get in the playoffs is probably to outperform the Cardinals.

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  43. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: I’m not sure how I’d answer this. How many 100 win seasons? No guarantee does not mean they would not win one. If they had 5 or 6 100 win teams in a row, odds are pretty high they’d have won a championship. So I think it depends.

    The larger point was if all we get out of the Theo Era is the one World Series, I’m satisfied. Probably just should’ve said that instead of the above scenario (dying laughing).

    Although, my original point stands, for me anyway. Given the choice between, say, 6 years of 100+ wins but no guaranteed World Series, and what has actually happened, I’ll take what has actually happened (assuming mediocrity for the next few years). To hell with the odds.

    dmick89: To be honest, I’m not that upset with how the big league team has performed since Thoyer took over. They won a championship and have been really good for several years. I’m more disappointed in the fact that they’ve wasted some money on shitty players and the farm system is a fucking mess. it’s as bad as it was when Hendry was fired.

    Agreed.

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  57. Rizzo the Rat

    It’s great to see Kris back in MVP-season form (hitting homers with his team comfortably ahead).

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  59. SK

    Enjoying Pat’s fond memories of Ronnie, and that time the guy he called Al Fonseca got ejected for coming out of the bullpen and “bellying” the umpire.

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  63. GW

    dmick89: To be honest, I’m not that upset with how the big league team has performed since Thoyer took over. They won a championship and have been really good for several years. I’m more disappointed in the fact that they’ve wasted some money on shitty players and the farm system is a fucking mess. it’s as bad as it was when Hendry was fired.

    Yep. They have been good, but the juggernaut we hoped for is not in the cards. With the benefit of hindsight it’s pretty easy to see a better path. They paid a premium for Chapman a couple of months after he was essentially given away by the Reds. The absolute black hole in pitching development led to large sums for Lester, Darvish, and Hamels and premium prospects for Quintana. Missed the big free agent trend in signing Chatwood early. No one would be complaining about the farm system is Eloy and Gleyber were on this roster.

    Lots of good, of course: sticking with Baez after inheriting him, Arrieta/Strop, Schwarber. I can’t help but wonder, though, what Friedman would have done with this team. I was very in favor of Theo at the time, but Friedman has completely transformed the Dodgers without missing a beat on the field. They have actually pulled off that “steady stream” of prospects that Theo talked about while winning 90 games every year.

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  64. dmick89

    GW: I was very in favor of Theo at the time, but Friedman has completely transformed the Dodgers without missing a beat on the field. They have actually pulled off that “steady stream” of prospects that Theo talked about while winning 90 games every year.

    That’s an interesting thing to look at it. There’s no doubt that the Dodgers are in better shape than the Cubs are and yeah, some of that is payroll, but I’m not really sure why the Cubs shouldn’t be blowing every other NL Central team out of the water when it comes to payroll.

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  65. Myles

    I can say with confidence that Friedman is the best baseball guy in the business. We have the ring, but he’s consistently outperformed in two different financial situations.

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  66. Smokestack Lightning

    GW: I was very in favor of Theo at the time, but Friedman has completely transformed the Dodgers without missing a beat on the field. They have actually pulled off that “steady stream” of prospects that Theo talked about while winning 90 games every year.

    Wha? He took over a 94-win Dodger team with the 5th ranked farm system. The Dodgers have historically been a well-run organization.

    Myles: I can say with confidence that Friedman is the best baseball guy in the business. We have the ring, but he’s consistently outperformed in two different financial situations.

    Don’t get me wrong, he’s very good, but “outperform” seems a skosh generous for a guy who enjoys one of the best baseball infrastructures in the biz (built long before he got there) and virtually unlimited resources.

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  68. dmick89

    I think the other thing about this front office isn’t so much about this front office, but that other executives caught up to them. So the difference between the best and the middle of the pack at this point is pretty small. When Theo was in Boston the difference between the best and middle of the pack was pretty big. The difference between best and worst was huge. That’s just not the case anymore.

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  69. Smokestack Lightning

    Myles:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    He made the Rays continually competitive with a dogshit ownership group for a decade. Went to la and the median outcome is NLCS.

    He was wizard-like for the most part in Tampa, no argument there (until the end anyway, when he left the team in 4th place and the 25th ranked farm system—which happens from time to time, even to the best). And he’s been very good in LA with everything you could possibly ask for as a team prez. But it’s not outperforming to me in LA. Just isn’t. You can’t walk into a great situation, continue to have every possible resource and advantage available to you, not win a World Series, and call what you’re doing “outperforming.”

    But then, this is a silly semantic argument. He’s an excellent exec. Will likely continue to be so. Forget I said anything.

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  70. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: When Theo was in Boston the difference between the best and middle of the pack was pretty big. The difference between best and worst was huge. That’s just not the case anymore.

    This. Just about every team has quality, smart people running things, making it increasingly difficult to find an edge and stay ahead. It may be a while before we see another true dynasty, which makes me all the more grateful the Cubs managed to get the one WS.

    The present situation (which may or may not end up being just fine for another year) would be a lot tougher to deal with if they hadn’t.

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  71. Joshua Allen

    I don’t know if you guys listened to the broadcast on the radio, but at one point Pat called Asdrubal Cabrera “Cabrubal” and I burst out laughing at work.

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  72. GW

    Smokestack Lightning: Don’t get me wrong, he’s very good, but “outperform” seems a skosh generous for a guy who enjoys one of the best baseball infrastructures in the biz (built long before he got there) and virtually unlimited resources.

    If you think what the Dodgers have been doing is maintaining success by throwing money around, then you haven’t been paying attention. Their best offensive player since Friedman arrived was acquired in a salary dump. They have also made it policy never to trade their best prospects. They certainly have had opportunities to do so (and needs to fill), which is why I brought up the hypothetical divergent path with the Cubs.

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