Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (0-2) at Arid Zone Diamondbacks (0-0)

In Uncategorized by berselius101 Comments

We are back again! And not at 4am! Hopefully the results are a little better than Tokyo. The Cubs face a less daunting task than they did against the Dodgers, but the Dbacks are also a very good team. Somehow the Dbacks lined things up such that their big free agent signing, Corbin Burnes, is *not* starting in this four game series. I’ll take it where I can get it here.

Burnes was of course the Dbacks big signing of the offseason, but they also made a few more moves. They traded for Josh Naylor who is taking over at first base for Christian Walker. They signed Randal Grichuk, who will likely be a backup OF. They signed Geraldo Perdomo, their cromulent young SS, to a four-year extension. Last year’s ‘big’ last minute signing/disaster, Jordan Montgomery, is our for a year and change due to TJS.

In other news, the Dbacks were one of the teams that broke away from Bally and went with their own MLB-run streaming option at dbacks.com. Those of us in Dbacks blackout territory rejoiced in hope that said blackout would be lifted but alas. At least I am able to do a cancelable ‘free trial’ for the games I won’t be at in person this weekend. Speaking of, keep an eye out for a schlubby beardo in a dirty Cubs ST hat in the upper deck on Friday/Saturday.

Team Leaders

(ZiPS DC Projected)

Cubs

  • OBP: Kyle Tucker (.355)
  • ISO: Tucker (.214)
  • HR: Tucker (29)
  • R+RBI: Tucker (185)
  • wRC+: Tucker (132)
  • BSR: PCA (3.1)
  • Defense: Swandong (19.2)
  • SP K/9: Ben Brown (9.5)
  • SP BB/9: Shota (2.09)
  • SP ERA: Steele (3.39)
  • RP K/9: Merryweather (10.43)
  • RP BB/9: Ryan Brasier (2.43)
  • RP ERA: Brasier (3.10)
  • WAR: Swandong (4.7)

Dbacks

  • OBP: Gabriel Moreno (.360)
  • ISO: Ketel Marte (.208)
  • HR: Marte (26)
  • R+RBI: Corbin Carroll (203)
  • wRC+: Marte (127)
  • BSR: Carroll (3.2)
  • Defense: Moreno (19.4)
  • SP K/9: Burnes (9.00)
  • SP BB/9: Brandon Pfaadt (2.03)
  • SP ERA: Burnes (3.02)
  • RP K/9: AJ Puk (11.51)
  • RP BB/9: Ryan Thompson (2.42)
  • RP ERA: Puk (3.01)
  • WAR: Moreno (4.7)

Who isn’t available?

As mentioned above, Montgomery is donezo for the season. I was feeling like the Cubs dodged a bullet but that’s just because he and Jack Flaherty are the same guy in my head. Aptly named infielder Blaze Alexander is out with an oblique injury. RP Kendall Graveman missed last season due to shoulder surgery, and may miss the start of this one due to a back issue. Setup-ish man Kevin Ginkel is on the IL to start the year with shoulder inflammation.

The Cubs are doing the usual start of the season roster shuffle, moving Tyson Miller (hip), Vidal Brujan (elbow), and Ryan Brasier (hip) to the IL. Javier Assad is still out with the oblique injury he suffered early in ST and his working his way back for a likely return in April. Nico is expected to be good to go for the opener. Keegan Thompson cleared waivers and is likely to head back to the Cubs minors.

Pitching Matchups

ZiPS Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each

Thursday: Justin Steele, LHP (8.51, 2.37, 3.39) vs Zac Gallen, RHP (8.68, 2.89, 3.45), 9:10 PM CT

WAR-wise Gallen took a step back in 2024, dropping from a ~4-5 WAR player to a ~3 WAR player, but most of that was due to a drop in innings pitched owing from missing two months on a hamstring injury. Rate-wise he was again pretty solid, though his walk rate did tick up a bit.

Steele was knocked around a big in his first start but it’s hard to take much away given small sample size and the weirdness in general of the early start to the season halfway around the world.

Friday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (7.15, 2.18, 4.17) vs Merrill Kelly, RHP (7.45, 2.63, 3.87), 8:40 PM CT

Kelly was a guy who flamed out as a prospect before rebuilding his career overseas in Korea. Since his debut in MLB at the age of 30 he’s been a solid league averageish starter for the Dbacks. However, he took a big step back last year, mostly due to an increased FB rate (and corresponding home runs).

Projection systems all dislike Taillon, but he is what he is, an average pitcher who can get you some innings. Not quite what the Cubs were hoping for when they signed him but still a good piece to have in your rotation. His ERA last year (3.24) was *much* lower than I remembered, but even by FIP based metrics he was fine.

Saturday: Shota Imanaga, LHP (9.08, 2.09, 3.52) vs Brandon Pfaadt, RHP (9.00, 2.03, 3.77), 7:10 PM CT

I’m not sure what more there is to say about Shota. He might be the most fun player since Zambrano. Certainly since early career Javy. I can only imagine how much fun a time-traveling Shota would have been on the 2016 team.

Amusing name aside, Pfaadt is a much better player than I remember. I mostly remember him from the Dbacks world series run, when he was a rookie quasi-swing starter who always seemed to run out of gas around the fourth inning. That wasn’t the case last year, as he made 32 starts though with a 4.71 ERA. His peripherals were still pretty good though, most teams (including the Cubs) would love to have him at the back end of their rotation.

Sunday: Matt Boyd, RHP (9.30, 2.85, 3.75) vs Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (8.41, 2.80, 3.65), 3:10 PM CT

We’ll get our first official look at Boyd in a Cubs uniform on Sunday. He was a TJS guy who missed all of 2023 and made eight starts last for the Tigers, looking pretty great in that small sample. The Cubs love a injury bounceback guy, they have a type. He was pretty up and down earlier in his career but a cromulent choice for a 4th starter.

Rodriguez was a similarly solid pitcher with the Red Sox early in his career but it’s been rockier since he left in 2022, mostly due to injury. He missed half of 2024 with a shoulder strain, and struggled when he returned late in the year. Fun fact, he’s actually right-handed, but started throwing lefty after he broke his arm when he was a kid.

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Comments

  3. BVS

    Rice Cube,

    Unforgivable trade.

    Jed wasn’t even good enough to get an optionable guy.

    Why bother trading for Tucker if you aren’t going to back him up with a stronger rotation?

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  10. Rice Cube

    Per the beat

    Cubs moves:

    • Eli Morgan recalled from Triple-A lowa
    • Brad Keller selected
    • Cody Poteet designated for assignment
    • Tyson Miller (left hip impingement) and Ryan Brasier (left groin strain) to 15-day injured list
    • Vidal Bruján (right elbow sprain) to 10-day injured list

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  15. BVS

    Rice Cube,

    They are $26M below last years CBT payroll. Bellinger’s CBT hit was $26.7. Cubs are still on the hook for $1.7M of Bellinger’s salary for CBT according to Cot’s so the balance is $25M savings from trading Bellinger. They paid for all their additions this year from salaries of those who left via trade, free agency, or who fell off the books and still saved $1M. (Hendricks, Smyly, Gomes, Paredes, Neris, Mancini, Barnhardt, Wisdom, Tauchman, AC’s favorite oft-injured infielder, etc.)

    Bellinger was a straight up salary dump with no reinvestment of the savings whatsoever. Not in additional free agents. That money came from salaries coming off the books. Not in extensions for current players like Steele or PCA. Those didn’t happen. Sure they brought in the 8th best player in baseball for one year, but with no additional investment to help him succeed.

    I stand by my comments on the pod in December that the offseason is an L, except for Rickett’s pocketbook. They will argue they committed $71M in CBT dollars to new players, and I will counter that was all found money from traded/expiring contacts without including Bellinger. They will also argue that they now have more flexibility for a big trade this summer. To which I say, you said you’d have more flexibility last winter and you did nothing. The plan, as I see it, is to save Ricketts money only.

    I think Gage Workman is a cool story, but would you trade him straight up for Cody Bellinger? Because they are now relying on him to be the back-up CF and IF. But you have Turner and Berti to back up IF and could have had Bellinger splitting time with Seiya, PCA, and Busch.

    Enough ranting for Opening Day. Hmph.

    And go WMU Broncos in the Frozen Four!

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  16. Author
    berselius

    BVS:
    Rice Cube,

    They are $26M below last years CBT payroll. Bellinger’s CBT hit was $26.7. Cubs are still on the hook for $1.7M of Bellinger’s salary for CBT according to Cot’s so the balance is $25M savings from trading Bellinger. They paid for all their additions this year from salaries of those who left via trade, free agency, or who fell off the books and still saved $1M. (Hendricks, Smyly, Gomes, Paredes, Neris, Mancini, Barnhardt, Wisdom, Tauchman, AC’s favorite oft-injured infielder, etc.)

    Bellinger was a straight up salary dump with no reinvestment of the savings whatsoever. Not in additional free agents. That money came from salaries coming off the books. Not in extensions for current players like Steele or PCA.Those didn’t happen. Sure they brought in the 8th best player in baseball for one year, but with no additional investment to help him succeed.

    I stand by my comments on the pod in December that the offseason is an L, except for Rickett’s pocketbook. They will argue they committed $71M in CBT dollars to new players, and I will counter that was all found money from traded/expiring contacts without including Bellinger. They will also argue that they now have more flexibility for a big trade this summer. To which I say, you said you’d have more flexibility last winter and you did nothing. The plan, as I see it, is to save Ricketts money only.

    I think Gage Workman is a cool story, but would you trade him straight up for Cody Bellinger? Because they are now relying on him to be the back-up CF and IF. But you have Turner and Berti to back up IF and could have had Bellinger splitting time with Seiya, PCA, and Busch.

    Enough ranting for Opening Day. Hmph.

    And go WMU Broncos in the Frozen Four!

    Maybe

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  24. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    LF Happ
    RF Tucker
    DH Suzuki
    1B Busch
    SS Swanson
    2B Hoerner
    CF PCA
    3B Shaw
    C Amaya

    P Steele

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  48. BVS

    berselius,

    Rice Cube,

    What are you talking about? Western Michigan beat Minnesota State in double OT to win their 2nd NCAA tournament game ever. Cornell upset Michigan State, winning by 1, knocking out a 1-seed and the overall two seed. Seems like a good start to me!

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  85. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    He improved significantly in the second half last year but time will tell if it was real. The Cubs basically have two really good backup catchers right now imo. Which beats the mostly replacement level play they had for a lot of 2024

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  86. BVS

    dmick89,

    He was much better in the 2nd half last year. If he doesn’t play more than 65% of the games I think he’ll be good.

    He was amazing in Myrtle Beach, fwiw

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  95. BVS

    BVS,

    Actually no. It’s just that the A logo doesn’t show up well.

    I’m 20 years older than Pressly and his beard is as grey as mine.

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