Break up the Rockies, who started the season with a sweep of the Brewers, beating them with a combined score of 20-6. As frustrating as the Cubs opening day game was at times, at least they didn’t lose 10-0 to a team that had Kyle Kendrick as its opening day starter.
I’ll be at the last two games of this series, if anyone else happens to be going there’s great beer options near the park.
Team Overviews
Top projected players:
Cubs
- WAR: Rizzo (4.5), Lester (3.9), Bryant (3.8)
- OBP: Fowler (.359), Rizzo (.358), La Stella (.337)
- SLG: Bryant (.498), Rizzo (.497), Soler (.463)
- Defense: Rizzo (+7)
- SP K/9: Arrieta (8.7)
- RP K/9: Ramirez (10.5)
- SP BB/9: Hendricks (2.1)
- RP BB/9: Motte (2.8)
Rockies
- WAR: Tulowitzki (5.1), Arenado (3.8), Dickerson (2.3)
- OBP: Tulo (.386), Gonzalez (.347), Morneau (.347)
- SLG: Tulo (.540), Dickerson (.513), CarGo (.511)
- Defense: Arenado (+11.7)
- SP K/9: Matzek (7.4)
- RP K/9: Ottavino (9.5)
- SP BB/9: Kendrick (2.5)
- RP BB/9: Hawkins (!) (2.1)
News, notes, injuries, vengeance pacts, etc.
Here’s how the Cardinals broadcast honored Ernie Banks in Wednesday’s game.
The Cardinals @FSMidwest in-game homage to Ernie Banks: pic.twitter.com/QBe5OLCWc7
— Baseball’s Best Fans (@BestFansStLouis) April 9, 2015
Props to MLB for screwing over its customers less than expected. I saw on opening night that DTV’s extra innings package includes mlb.tv this year, and I was able to get a full refund for my existing mlb.tv subscription when I picked up extra innings. Normally their cancellation policy is that there are no refunds after 5 days of purchase.
Matt Trueblood wrote a great piece at BP Wrigleyville about Baez’s similarities to early career Sammy Sosa.
Speaking of Sosa, the Cubs have admitted that he once played for the team by including him in MLB’s Franchise Four gimmick. I voted for Sosa, Santo, Banks, and Sandberg.
Thoughts are with Javier Baez and his family as his younger sister passed away yesterday. The two were very close, and Carrie Muskat wrote a great piece on their relationship back in 2013.
Probable Pitchers
NB: I am listing the ZiPS projected K/9, BB/9, and ERA for each pitcher. Especially in projections, listing FIP and ERA as I used to do is kinda dumb (dying laughing)
Friday: Travis Wood, LHP (7.11, 3.48, 4.31) vs Tyler Matzek, LHP (7.60, 3.60, 4.30), 3:10 PM CT
These guys have pretty much the exact same projection, though they get there in different ways. Matzek is certainly more suited to Coors Field, as he’s a ground ball guy, whereas Wood is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the majors. It’s a little surprising that Maddon didn’t have Wood lined up to pitch at Wrigley, even before the weather shook up the rotation plans a bit. As mentioned in our first two podcast episodes Wood is a guy I am pretty high on this year, though my co-hosts aren’t quite so sanguine. Unlike previous pitchers I’ve been overconfident on (*cough* Randy Wells *cough*) Wood doesn’t have the complication of coming back too soon from an injury. He regressed last year, which we were all waiting for, but I was surprised how many people forgot he was the Cubs ‘Ace!!!111!!’ not too long ago.
Saturday: Jason Hammel, RHP (7.72, 2.62, 3.88) vs Kyle Kendrick, RHP (5.26, 2.55, 4.99), 7:10 PM CT
I just don’t get the Rockies signing Kendrick at all, let along making him their opening day starter. The only good Coors-related thing you can say about him is that he walks relatively few batters, but he allows a ton of balls in play as evidenced by his anemic strikeout rate, and it’s not like he’s particularly homer-suppressing.
Of all the Cubs starters not named Edwin Jackson, Hammel is the guy I’m most worried about. Maybe it’s just that it feels like he has no upside, though that relatively high floor has value. He had a hot three months with the Cubs last year, but I think the chances he puts up more than 2 WAR on the season are very slim, whereas I can see Wood bouncing back and putting up another one of his flyball-driven low BABIP seasons. He does bring veteran experience at getting shelled in Coors, based on his three years with the Rockies.
Sunday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (6.26, 2.07, 3.54) vs Jordan Lyles, RHP (5.95, 3.13, 4.70), 3:10 PM CT
Now that I’ve spent time bashing Kendrick, Hendricks is actually an extremely similar pitcher. Both guys top out at around 90 with their fastballs, throw mostly sinkers, don’t strike out many batters, and throw strikes. The difference is that Hendricks has a much better second pitch, in his excellent changeup, while Kendrick’s cutters and splitters tend to get hit harder.
No one is happier than Pat Hughes that Tuesday’s game was rained out, shifting the Cubs rotation away from the originally scheduled Kendrick-Hendricks matchup.
Lyles is one of those anonymous Astros starters from their awful years that I keep confusing with Cosart. He was terrible for the Astros, putting up 5+ ERAs in all three seasons though with slightly less bad FIPs. He as merely okay in his first year with the Rockies, posting a 4.33 ERA and killing plenty of worms. That said it looks like most of that was due to a hot start – he posted a 2.62 ERA in April last year and was hit pretty hard the rest of the way.