Well, the offense looks like it’s going to be fun this year. It doesn’t look like the pitching staff has magically learned to throw strikes yet, however.
The Braves may have built their team around young pitching, but the real strength of the team seems to be its defense. 13 different players started games for them last year, and they had 30+ make relief appearances.
Team Leaders
I’ll use the teams’ 2018 numbers here (excluding injured/departed players), since looking at a bunch of zeros is boring.
Cubs
- OBP: Ben Zobrist (.378)
- ISO: El Mago (.264)
- HR: Baez (34)
- R+RBI: Baez (212)
- wRC+: Baez (131)
- BSR: Jason Heyward (4.3)
- DRS: Albert Almora (9)
- SP K/9: Yu Darvish (11.03)
- SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (1.99)
- SP FIP: Cole Hamels (3.42)
- RP FIP: Carl Edwards Jr (11.60)
- RP BB/9: Pedro Strop (3.17)
- RP FIP: Edwards (2.93)
- WAR: Baez (5.3)
Barves
- OBP: Freddie Freeman (.388)
- ISO: Ronald Acuña (.259)
- HR: Acuña (26)
- R+RBI: Freeman (192)
- wRC+: Acuña (143)
- BSR: Ender Inciarte (6.1)
- DRS: Inciarte (17)
- SP K/9: Mike Foltynewicz (13.50)
- SP BB/9: Folty (3.34)
- SP FIP: Folty (3.37)
- RP K/9: Sam Freeman (10.37)
- RP BB/9: Dan Wilnker (2.98)
- RP FIP: A.J. Minter (2.72)
- WAR: Freeman (5.2)
Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.
The Braves made a big splash this offseason by signing Josh Donaldson to a 1 year, $23m deal. He’s gone one for twelve so far in his Barves career, so I guess that’s enough to call that signing a bust. They might as well release him before the game, it’s a sunk cost.
Folty is on the IL (this still feels strange to write) with elbow soreness, which are two words a team never likes to see. The same goes for shoulder inflammation on A.J. Minter and Kevin Gausman. That’s two of their best pitchers and Kevin Gausman.
Pitching Probables
Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher.
Thursday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (7.54, 2.19, 3.72) vs Sean Newcomb, LHP (8.79, 4.28, 4.16), 6:10 pm CT
Hendricks is coming off a big extension, and hopefully he can provide the Cubs with some hope that at least one of their pitchers isn’t going to walk a billion guys.
Newcomb has a good fastball, the rest is still a work in progress. He got off to a great start last year until teams started to sit on his fastball.
Saturday: Jon Lester, LHP (7.71, 2.91, 4.09) vs Julio Teheran, RHP (7.95, 3.84, 4.61), 6:20 PM CT
It’s hard to believe that Teheran has been in the league for six full seasons already. He’s had terrible peripherals the last two seasons, mostly due to a tendency towards the long ball. While the ball is in play though, the Braves defense does him a lot of favors. He posted a hilariously low .217 BABIP last season.
Lester was just fine in his opening day start. I think the Cubs would be pretty happy with ‘just fine’ for 31 more starts.
Sunday: Yu Darvish, RHP (10.53, 3.59, 3.99) vs Max Fried, LHP (8.98, 5.10, 4.45), 6:20 PM CT
Darvish was pretty much the opposite of ‘just fine’ in his first start of the year. Who knows if it was after effects of the blister he suffered in late spring training, or nerves in facing his former team. Based on all the stories out of the spring he’s not ‘broken’ but he’ll certainly have to do better than this.
Fried has mostly been working out of the pen and probably won’t go deep in this one. He’s a guy with big strikeout and big walk numbers all through his career, so this could be a long night.
Comments
The frustrating thing about the small sample this season has offered up is the trends that are most likely to continue: high walk rate, brief outings from the starting rotation/high workload for the bullpen, and regression of the bullpen. I mean, we can agree this team is going to need an average of 3+ innings of relief pitching per game, and that won’t be fun to watch. Strop will probably be mildly better than he’s been. Edwards will completely suck sometimes. Nobody is likely to dominate. The luck inherent in relief pitching may go in the Cubs’ favor moving forward, but it will never be fun to watch. This isn’t a bullpen we’ll ever look forward to seeing take over a game, and this isn’t a rotation that’s going to go deep into many games. This offense may keep scoring a lot, but this team will blow a lot of leads.
andcountingQuote Reply
If only there was a player out there who threw a lot of strikes and had experience closing games for big-market teams. Bonus if he’s a free agent and costs only money.
Thoyer: Say no more, we’ve just signed Ryan Madson.
MylesQuote Reply
At least the offense looks fixed. Laying off the Chili seems to have helped.
PerkinsQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
why don’t they make the whole airplane out of steve cishek
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
That’s an optional upgrade that would have cost an extra 80k.
berseliusQuote Reply
We were all so dumb for complaining about the off day. It was our last chance at happiness until 2025. At least we have until Thursday before they play again, apparently. (dying laughing)
andcountingQuote Reply
We keep this up, and to me they’ll all be off days!
Tip your wait staff.
MylesQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do
berseliusQuote Reply
I can’t deal with you today.
MylesQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
CF Almora
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
SS Baez
C Contreras
2B Bote
RF Heyward
P Hendricks
LF Zagunis
berseliusQuote Reply
I really wish Schwarber was given a chance again to play every day. It’s such a waste of his potential talent to not give him another chance.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
absolutely zagunis
GWQuote Reply
Awesome.
WaLiQuote Reply
The Cubs are going to be eliminated from the division race by the end of the week.
dmick89Quote Reply
It pisses me off that Zagunis is getting playing time over Schwarber.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hendricks getting screwed by everyone this game.
MylesQuote Reply
Hendricks with the rare no-out homer that goes down as an unearned run.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This team sucks.
dmick89Quote Reply
Another error leading to a run, fantastic
WaLiQuote Reply
And another error fucking fantastic
WaLiQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
What is going on?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Well we know the Cubs would have to score 10+ to win anyways
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
True, but the bullpen is good for 6-8 allowed so they probably need 15 to win this one. Maybe.
dmick89Quote Reply
Man this is unwatchable
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
At least this team makes it easy to go do something else.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
What did Jan say?
berseliusQuote Reply
Some cruel April fools joke
WaLiQuote Reply
– Turns on radio.
– Hears Pat Hughes say, “The first inning is an absolute disaster.”
– Turns off radio.
North Side PatQuote Reply
I think that’s Heyward’s 3rd GIDP so far this season – impressive.
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
His nickname should 1-6-3.
dmick89Quote Reply
Zagunis over Happ is looking like another brilliant decision by this team.
dmick89Quote Reply
Zagunis caught one!!!
andcountingQuote Reply
Zagunis made a play!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Maybe it’s Thoyer’s plan to make this team so bad that Heyward will exercise the option on his contract.
andcountingQuote Reply
Sure, Bote didn’t drive those runners in, but he did manage to trip over first base.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Man even Rizzo with an error. The team just seems emotionally drained or something after the last two games and the defensive miscues in the first. Where’s the leadership?
WaLiQuote Reply
What a play about pieces of feces.
berseliusQuote Reply
Errors are the new market inefficiency, apparently. Who knew?
North Side PatQuote Reply
yeah wake me up when wnba season starts
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20190524T00&p0=920&msg=When%20Does%20WNBA%20Season%20Start%20So%20EnricoPallazo%20Can%20Watch%20Something%20Entertaining&ud=2&font=slab&csz=1
WaLiQuote Reply
I thought CJ looked sharp?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
WaLi,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Perfect ending.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
At least the Cubs can’t lose again tomorrow.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
WTF how is there another off day
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
Stupid baseball. This happens again during the home opening series.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s called mercy.
andcountingQuote Reply
The Cubs are in last place. I think they’ve got a shot to move up to 4th if they play above my expectations the rest of the way. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Looks like Acuña ———> 8/100 extension
berseliusQuote Reply
Insanely good deal for the Barves. I think RAJ is likely to win an MVP or two before his career is over.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
So he’ll be 29/30 when that deal ends? So he gets about $35-40 million more than he would’ve gotten over the next four years and probably $30-$50 million less than he would have gotten the 4 years following? I may be way off, but if I could go from $500k to $12 million as a 21 year old, I’d have a real tough time passing that up. It’s still a great deal for Atlanta, but it’s much better than what the arb system currently does to these guys.
I’ll keep saying it, the collusion against free agency continues to pay off for the owners and younger players (in the short term, at least).
andcountingQuote Reply
Especially when you’re so far away from free agency and still a couple years away from making big money in arbitration. I think he came out pretty good all things considered. I’d have a difficult time turning $50 million down at that age when a significant payoff is still aways off.
dmick89Quote Reply
Acuna wasn’t going to be arbitration eligible for 3 more seasons so he’d probably only have made a couple million by the time arbitration hit. Yeah, that may be a good deal for the Braves, but it’s also a really good deal for Acuna Jr.
dmick89Quote Reply
Man the Cubs can’t do anything right
https://www.mlb.com/news/carl-edwards-jr-s-delivery-ruled-illegal-by-mlb
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
I can’t believe the Cubs thought it was legal. It’s almost like the Cubs went up to CJ this offseason and said, “hey, we think you’re problem is that you’re not making your delivery difficult enough so we’re going to really fuck it all up and see how that goes.”
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
FWIW, I think I saw something that said that it was Edwards’s idea, and Maddon likes the original notion better.
berseliusQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Zobrist (RF)
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez (SS)
Schwarber
Contreras
Descalso (2B)
Lester
Heyward (CF)
PerkinsQuote Reply
The Cubs are going to be reaching the 5 back rule very soon.
dmick89Quote Reply
Time to sell off pieces IMO
MylesQuote Reply
Bote———————-> extension through 2024 ($15 million)
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Why?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
$3M a year isn’t a lot for a utility player, I guess. But I don’t see much of a point.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
I genuinely think they’re trying to effectively end free agency by taking calculated gambles on extensions for everyone. The thinking is, pay everyone more than what they would typically get during team control/arbitration in the old system but much less than they would get in free agency if they wind up being really good. If they can make that the standard, the owners will wind up saving a ton of money.
andcountingQuote Reply
Also, if they push the average free agent age a couple years older (past or closer to the point of physical decline), they can reduce the size of free agent contracts even further.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Maybe, but I honestly don’t see a point in negotiating any extensions with any player unless you’re able to lock Bryant into a long-term deal that’s relatively team friendly. Also, he’s the only player I’d even consider locking up long-term, but obviously the Cubs want to lock every player up and that doesn’t make sense to me.
dmick89Quote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
I think if the Cubs bats can score more runs than the pitchers allow, they have a good chance of winning tonight.
WaLiQuote Reply
Awesome start for the D
WaLiQuote Reply
Oy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
WaLi,
It could go either way
berseliusQuote Reply
Lester!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Yay Heyward didn’t GIDP! Progress?
WaLiQuote Reply
Great 3-2 pitch to Freeman by Lester. Too bad the umpire didn’t agree.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Willson!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Willlllllllie!
andcountingQuote Reply
Jon Lester cannot be retired.
andcountingQuote Reply
Jon has reached base as many times as the first four hitters in the lineup combined.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
He may have a better sense of the strike zone than anyone on the team, and I’m not even kidding.
andcountingQuote Reply
Rough night for Bryant.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rizzo!! (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rizzo with the great base running
WaLiQuote Reply
Willllson.
andcountingQuote Reply
Contreras:
WaLiQuote Reply
Every routine grounder to Kris Bryant still gives me chills.
andcountingQuote Reply
Welp.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Averaging 1 per game so far.
WaLiQuote Reply
It’s very difficult to win when you walk seven hitters per game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rosario comes into a very high-leverage situation. Beautiful.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Fuck this team
WaLiQuote Reply
I’m still amazed that the front office did basically nothing to address the bullpen.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Why the fuck was Almora playing short center?
andcountingQuote Reply
Unless this team leads by 10, they’ve got no shot at winning. Seriously, 10 run lead in the 9th inning and they only have a 55% chance of winning the game. They fucking suck.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wanted to like this team. I really did.
PerkinsQuote Reply
On the plus side, this bullpen has a shot at setting the MLB record for walks in an inning.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’m getting too old to be worked up over an April baseball game. That said, fuck this fucking shit.
North Side PatQuote Reply
I imagine there are a few on this list who would be an instant improvement over the shit the Cubs are currently throwing out on the mound..
WaLiQuote Reply
North Side Pat,
I think it’s because it is an extremely frustrating way to lose and pitching probably won’t fix itself like bats sometimes do.
WaLiQuote Reply
Baez lining into another DP would be the perfect ending to this game.
berseliusQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Even my attempt at posting a train wreck image from my phone is a train wreck.
berseliusQuote Reply
Someone should probably be held accountable pretty soon.
MylesQuote Reply
I figured the Cubs would end up finishing about 15 games or more behind the Brewers, but they might be 15 out by the end of June.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have a certain respect for how previous ownership groups ran this team. Wrigley, the Trib, Zell, whatever. They were just fucking cheap and that’s how they ran things, so at least that made sense on some level.
The Rickettses, on the other hand, painstakingly built a good and profitable franchise just so they could then light it on fire to prove that they’re assholes. I will never understand the point of all this.
Fuck them, and fuck the Cubs.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I’ll just watch the damned A’s this year. Ramon Laureano is like 85% as much fun as Javy Baez, but tickets are 10% of the price. Appeals to my Scottish sensibilities.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I wonder if this is all Theo’s plan to get back at ownership for tightening the purse strings this offseason. Leak to the media that the evil Ricketts family won’t let us spend and then refuse to upgrade the team so the decision to not spend looks even worse. Oh yeah, and then leak more details about how awful the Ricketts family is.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
If that’s the plan, it’s working really well.
andcountingQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Almora
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Bote
Schwarber
Darvish
Zagunis
I’d have preferred Zobrist in RF over Zagunis, but it’s good to see Schwarber get a start against a LHP.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I’m basically never going to watch games that Schwarber doesn’t start until he proves that he sucks.
It’s malpratice to not start him 6 of 7 games.
MylesQuote Reply
Perkins,
This looks like a spring training lineup to me.
dmick89Quote Reply
On the plus side, at least the Yankees and Red Sox have been off to disaster starts as well.
berseliusQuote Reply
Yikes. I saw Aroldis Chapman today, and he was throwing 95-97. He got through the inning fine, but he had to rely on his breaking ball more.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Cubs still suck.
dmick89Quote Reply
Regardless of the result of this review, I really hate the plate-blocking rule.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Schwarber>>>>>>>>Zagunis
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bullpen? It’s fuck-this-shit-o’clock.
PerkinsQuote Reply
#EverybodyWalks
North Side PatQuote Reply
Darvish, CJ, and Chatwood in the same inning. Oh God.
andcountingQuote Reply
It’s almost like Joe is trying to make some kind of point.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m saying 15 games until Maddon is fired. Anyone want the under?
PerkinsQuote Reply
At least get yourself ejected, Joe.
berseliusQuote Reply
At least Chatwood didn’t walk anyone!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hope so.
MylesQuote Reply
I’m beginning to think Ryno’s theory is correct, and that it extends to Maddon’s using players in sub-optimal ways.
PerkinsQuote Reply
berselius,
Bring in Zambrano as a bench coach, at least they’ll have someone who can light a fire under this team’s ass.
berseliusQuote Reply
Just call the fucking game already
berseliusQuote Reply
The 2018 Cubs took about five months to get me to hate them. This team managed it in five games.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Under. If the Cubs get swept this weekend, I think he’ll be fired before they even have their home opener. I think the Cubs will get swept this weekend. This is like 1997.
dmick89Quote Reply
Now that Bote is locked up, I’m hoping the Cubs can move on to Zagunis.
dmick89Quote Reply
Call it what?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Pat & Ron’s discussion about having to wear makeup for TV appearances is the highlight of this game.
North Side PatQuote Reply
Carl Edwards Jr. threw a pitch that was so bad, it looked like a strike in the MLB atbat app either because it entered the strike zone on the bounce or because the spot where it bounced was so far in front of the plate (it hit grass) that it lined up with the center of the strike zone frame. Both are plausible explanations. I can’t imagine an explanation for why Edwards would be allowed to face more than zero batters in that situation. But hey, It was nice knowing you, Joe.
andcountingQuote Reply
http://www.obstructedview.net/series-preview-chicago-dumpster-fire-1-5-at-milwaukee-brewers-6-1/
berseliusQuote Reply