The Cubs follow up their series win against the Cardinals with ten straight games against the Reds, Brewers, and Barves. Not too shabby of a start to the season, schedule-wise. The Reds are coming off a series win vs the Rockies but have the Cubs, Mets, and Pirates up next on their slate. They have a winning record despite a run differential of of -16 on the season. Their pitching staff, in particular has allowed the third-most runs in the NL, bostered by a league-worst 39 runs coughed up by their bullpen. This is led by now-former Reds closer and saves 'leader' (he has one save, which is one more than any other Reds pitcher) J.J. Hoover, and there is no clear replacement for the role.
Team Leaders
Cubs
- OBP: Fowler (.523)
- ISO: Fowler (.314)
- HR: Rizzo (4)
- R+RBI: Rizzo (22)
- wRC+: Fowler (226)
- BSR: Heyward (1.7)
- SP K/9: Lackey (10.07)
- SP BB/9: Arrieta (0.82)
- SP FIP: Hendricks (2.60)
- RP K/9: Rondon (18.00)
- RP BB/9: Grimm (0.00)
- RP FIP: Rondon (-0.95)
- WAR: Fowler (1.7)
Reds
- OBP: Cozart?! (.425)
- ISO: Bruce (.276)
- HR: Bruce/Suarez (4)
- R+RBI: Bruce (23)
- wRC+: Cozart (159)
- BSR: Hamilton (0.9)
- SP K/9: Simon (12.71)
- SP BB/9: Iglesias (1.93)
- SP FIP: Iglesias (2.92)
- RP K/9: Ohlendorf (10.97)
- RP BB/9: Cotham (3.38)
- RP FIP: Cotham (2.92)
- WAR: Duvall (0.7)
The lowest xFIP among all Reds relievers is the recently demoted Jumbo Diaz (4.55).
Pitching Matchups
2016 ERA, 2016 K/9 2016 BB/9, projected ERA listed for each pitcher.
Thursday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (1.23, 8.18, 0.82, 2.63) vs Brandon Finnegan, LHP (2.04, 8.15, 5.09, 3.96), 6:10 PM CT
Old Hoss would approve of Finnegan somehow being the only MLB player ever with his surname. He pitched into the seventh against the Cubs last week, allowing just one hit but walking five. He picked up a W in his next start against the Cards but still walked four batters and allowed four runs. He seems like the kind of guy the Cubs patient lineup would eat up, despite my memory of relative impatience against him in his last start.
Friday: Jon Lester, LHP (2.21, 8.41, 1.77, 3.07) vs Jon Moscot, RHP (4.76, 3.18, 1.59, 5.36), 6:10 PM CT
Moscot was one of the parade of rookie Reds starters from last season, and the results were not so great, albeit in a small sample size. He throws a bunch of junk according to his pfx mix, and has never struck many batters out. The Cardinals knocked him around in his first start and had him on the ropes nearly every inning, and he was lucky that the two homers he coughed up were solo shots.
Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (3.66, 10.07, 2.29, 3.38) vs Dan Straily, RHP (2.70, 8.10, 4.05, 5.17), 6:10 PM CT
Straily was briefly with the Cubs in 2014, and made one forgettable start in August against the Mets in which he gave up seven runs. This year, the Cusb saw him when he came in relief of Alfredo Simon's 50 pitch, two out start, where he went two innings and change giving up two more runs. He moved into the Reds starting rotation earlier this week and gave up one run over five innings to the Rockies. Even if Straily is as sharp as that game, you have to think the Cubs will be feasting on that Reds bullpen in this game.
Sunday: Jason Hammel. RHP (1.00, 7.50, 3.50, 3.90) vs iCarly Simon, RHP (12.15, 12.15, 6.75, 5.11), 12:10 PM CT
Simon was…not great…in his last start, not even making it out of the first inning against the relentless Cubs offense. Pretty much the only good thing you could say about it is that he didn't give up a home run. He was scratched from his next start due to biceps tendinitis, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another short outing or another scratched start here on Sunday.
Today's lineups
Cubs
- Fowler
- Heyward
- Bryant
- Rizzo
- Soler
- Zobrist
- Russell
- Ross
- Arrieta
Reds
- SS Cozart
- 3B Suarez
- 1B Votto
- 2B Phillps
- RF Bruce
- C Mesoraco
- LF Duvall
- CF Schebler
- P Finnegan
Comments
Billy Hamilton has an off day, presumably resting up for the Lester start tomorrow.
berseliusQuote Reply
8/10 seems incredibly possible.
MillertimeQuote Reply
berselius,
That, and you can’t steal first.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Ross starting two games in a row again? I disapprove.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Last year in September, tHom Brenneman said during one of Iglesias’s starts against the Cubs that no one in baseball was hotter than Iglesias. I’m not joking. Jake Arrieta was sitting in the other dugout and was in the headlines pretty much every day and there’s Brenneman saying dumb shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
He meant objectively hot
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Fowler. Wow
dmick89Quote Reply
KRIS!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
BEN!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jay!
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Cubs!
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Arrieta with far more pitches than were used to seeing and it’s not even that many.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He’s been missing a bit. At least he isn’t getting hit.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Go Reds defense!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Arrieta. These pitchers hitting. Crazy.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cue Benny hill music
WaLiQuote Reply
dmick89,
Ross got on twice!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
And went 1st to 3rd twice.
dmick89Quote Reply
Leadoff walk ahead of Votto. Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
8 out of 10 isn’t even a solid B.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Allowing yourself to get picked off with a five-run deficit? Dumb.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s been taken care of. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’ll be happy with 7 of 10.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
This reds team looks a lot like the Cubs teams prior to last season. They can try all they want, they’re still going to suck.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sometimes I’m happy to be wrong.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Reds OK with Try Not To Suck shirts.
dmick89Quote Reply
Anybody else hear the 1st base ump barking at Maddon? What an asshole.
MuckerQuote Reply
They should be because it’s been as aspiration of theirs for a few years now.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
They suck at it.
dmick89Quote Reply
OMG
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ross is on fire.
dmick89Quote Reply
Everybody seems to against Jake.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Does Jake get pulled with a no-hitter?
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
Carrying the team, really.
uncle daveQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’d say as long as he’s under 120 pitches entering the 9th he will get the chance.
dmick89Quote Reply
uncle dave,
uncle daveQuote Reply
Anthony!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I missed this offense. I wonder where it went.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Reds carried a no-hitter into the sixth in the home opener. Nice of Jake to return the favor in their park.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Hopefully Jake can carry the no-hitter into the post-game press conference.
dmick89Quote Reply
Poor Addison Russell.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Russell is getting robbed tonight.
dmick89Quote Reply
Three lineouts for Russell. The BABIP gods are not pleased.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Hopefully in moustache pajamas.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bryant!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Boom
dmick89Quote Reply
This Grand Slam brought to you by: Denny’s. When you don’t want to look yourself in the mirror, it’s Denny’s time.
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
It’s a fucking Papa® Slam™ and don’t you forget it!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Papa slam. It’s the most annoying thing to see in a notification. Makes me cringe every time.
dmick89Quote Reply
5 outs to go
That’s a good number for the cubs. They’ve never fucked it up with 5 outs to go.
dmick89Quote Reply
The only time I haven’t minded seeing Papa Slam.
dmick89Quote Reply
Only a single for Bryant. Slacker.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rizzo is so good at getting on base. BB. HBP. KPB.
ceruleanQuote Reply
KBP (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Come on, Jake.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hard grounder to Russell to end this, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
Thought that was a hit
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Fuck yeah
dmick89Quote Reply
Christopher Kamka @ckamka 2m2 minutes ago
Jake Arrieta last 24 regular season starts:
20-1, 0.86 ERA, 178.0 IP, 91 Hits, 173/33 K/BB, 0.697 WHIP.
These are REAL numbers. #Cubs
uncle daveQuote Reply
So good. Throw money at him Thoyer. There isn’t a better pitcher.
ceruleanQuote Reply
uncle dave,
And they include 3 no-hitters, one of them, his only loss.
ceruleanQuote Reply
uncle dave,
91 hits in 178 innings is crazy.
dmick89Quote Reply
16-run differential. 18-hit differential. This has to be one of the most lopsided victories in history.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The real question, of course: did he raise his arms fully after the last pitch?
uncle daveQuote Reply
I always love when the pitcher outhits the team he’s facing.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
uncle dave,
No. Someone tell Will Carroll.
dmick89Quote Reply
Good. At. Sports.
PerkinsQuote Reply
119 pitches.
Game score = 89
I’m OK with this, they’ll manage him better next outing unless he also throws a no-hitter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
https://vine.co/v/iF9X3tJwwPh
A fan came on the field to celebrate with the team.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
According to some nerd tweeting from nerd central, Cubs have a +57 run differential, which is better than all the positive run differentials of all the teams in the AL.
Combined.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Kershaw threw a 46mph pitch today. (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
That was when they were up 13. Cubs are +60 now. It’s still true.
ceruleanQuote Reply
More importantly, they passed the Cardinals in runs scored.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hossa with a shorthanded goal!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Dammit.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Arrieta’s BA in the last 24 starts: .234
Arrieta’s BAA in the last 24 starts: .150
ceruleanQuote Reply
If we’re trying to get Montero a little more rest (because of the loss of Schwarber) maybe it makes sense to send Ross out with Arrietta more often? Figuring that its safer to have a weaker bat in the lineup with the pitcher who most successfully minimizes opposing runs?
UrkQuote Reply
Urk,
It might make sense but I think they did it today due to the matchup (platoon advantage) as well. If they give Montero 7 out of every 10 starts (assume Ross is personal C for 2x Lester starts) that might be enough, that gives Montero about 115 starts and the rest go to Ross (minus the one start Schwarber had, I think). 115 games for a catcher seems reasonable.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-16-reds-0-arrieta-2-no-hitters/
berseliusQuote Reply