Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (11-4) at Cincinnati Reds (8-7)

In Series Previews by berseliusApril 21, 201680 Comments

The Cubs follow up their series win against the Cardinals with ten straight games against the Reds, Brewers, and Barves. Not too shabby of a start to the season, schedule-wise. The Reds are coming off a series win vs the Rockies but have the Cubs, Mets, and Pirates up next on their slate. They have a winning record despite a run differential of of -16 on the season. Their pitching staff, in particular has allowed the third-most runs in the NL, bostered by a league-worst 39 runs coughed up by their bullpen. This is led by now-former Reds closer and saves 'leader' (he has one save, which is one more than any other Reds pitcher) J.J. Hoover, and there is no clear replacement for the role.

Team Leaders

Cubs

OBP: Fowler (.523)
ISO: Fowler (.314)
HR: Rizzo (4)
R+RBI: Rizzo (22)
wRC+: Fowler (226)
BSR: Heyward (1.7)
SP K/9: Lackey (10.07)
SP BB/9: Arrieta (0.82)
SP FIP: Hendricks (2.60)
RP K/9: Rondon (18.00)
RP BB/9: Grimm (0.00)
RP FIP: Rondon (-0.95)
WAR: Fowler (1.7)

Reds

OBP: Cozart?! (.425)
ISO: Bruce (.276)
HR: Bruce/Suarez (4)
R+RBI: Bruce (23)
wRC+: Cozart (159)
BSR: Hamilton (0.9)
SP K/9: Simon (12.71)
SP BB/9: Iglesias (1.93)
SP FIP: Iglesias (2.92)
RP K/9: Ohlendorf (10.97)
RP BB/9: Cotham (3.38)
RP FIP: Cotham (2.92)
WAR: Duvall (0.7)

The lowest xFIP among all Reds relievers is the recently demoted Jumbo Diaz (4.55).

Pitching Matchups

2016 ERA, 2016 K/9 2016 BB/9, projected ERA listed for each pitcher.

Thursday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (1.23, 8.18, 0.82, 2.63) vs Brandon Finnegan, LHP (2.04, 8.15, 5.09, 3.96), 6:10 PM CT

Old Hoss would approve of Finnegan somehow being the only MLB player ever with his surname. He pitched into the seventh against the Cubs last week, allowing just one hit but walking five. He picked up a W in his next start against the Cards but still walked four batters and allowed four runs. He seems like the kind of guy the Cubs patient lineup would eat up, despite my memory of relative impatience against him in his last start.

Friday: Jon Lester, LHP (2.21, 8.41, 1.77, 3.07) vs Jon Moscot, RHP (4.76, 3.18, 1.59, 5.36), 6:10 PM CT

Moscot was one of the parade of rookie Reds starters from last season, and the results were not so great, albeit in a small sample size. He throws a bunch of junk according to his pfx mix, and has never struck many batters out. The Cardinals knocked him around in his first start and had him on the ropes nearly every inning, and he was lucky that the two homers he coughed up were solo shots.

Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (3.66, 10.07, 2.29, 3.38) vs Dan Straily, RHP (2.70, 8.10, 4.05, 5.17), 6:10 PM CT

Straily was briefly with the Cubs in 2014, and made one forgettable start in August against the Mets in which he gave up seven runs. This year, the Cusb saw him when he came in relief of Alfredo Simon's 50 pitch, two out start, where he went two innings and change giving up two more runs. He moved into the Reds starting rotation earlier this week and gave up one run over five innings to the Rockies. Even if Straily is as sharp as that game, you have to think the Cubs will be feasting on that Reds bullpen in this game.

Sunday: Jason Hammel. RHP (1.00, 7.50, 3.50, 3.90) vs iCarly Simon, RHP (12.15, 12.15, 6.75, 5.11), 12:10 PM CT

Simon was…not great…in his last start, not even making it out of the first inning against the relentless Cubs offense. Pretty much the only good thing you could say about it is that he didn't give up a home run. He was scratched from his next start due to biceps tendinitis, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another short outing or another scratched start here on Sunday.

Today's lineups