Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (19-38) at Minnesota Twins (22-34)

In Series Previews by berselius256 Comments

The Cubs will face one of their main rivals for the #1 pick in the draft. Since 424's been on vacation I'll post a mini reverse standings to see how things are currently shaking out

Team L-W GB
San Diego 39-19
Chi Cubs 38-19 0.5
Minnesota 34-22 4
Seattle 33-26 6.5
Oakland 32-26 7

Things have separated a bit between the contenders (SD, Chi) and the rest, with the Twins square in the middle.

Team overviews

Respective league ranks in parens

  Cubs Twins
wOBA .298 (14th) .307 (12th)
UBR 3.4 (3rd) 0.4 (5th)
UZR 3.8 (7th) 7.9 (5th)
DRS +6 (4th) -1 (11th)
SP FIP 4.06 (11th) 5.28 (14th)
RP FIP 4.53 (16th) 3.75 (8th)

The Twins starters have a whopping 6.06 ERA. Yowza. They've had terrible luck with HRs, but it's mostly a underwhelming pitch to contact staff.

Position players

The biggest contributer by far has been Josh Willingham, who has posted a .286/.408/.573 line in 223 PAs, good for a ,421 wOBA and 19 wRAA. Joe Mauer is also having a pretty good year, which surprised me. Most of what I remember about Mauer these days are injuries and complaints that he's not hitting as well as he should. The big problem is his power (he's slugging .419) and the fact that to avoid further injury he's been spending time at 1B and DH, which cuts into his value. Justin Morneau is struggling in the return from his concussion injury. The power is still there (.500 SLG) but his OBP is sitting right around .300. I can't seem to figure out how to find team batting spots by position, but they've had plenty of negative offensive production from pretty much their infield with the likes of Jamey Carroll, Brian Dozier, Danny Valencia, Alexi Casilla, and quasi-backup 1B Chris Parmalee all struggling. Joe Mauer, of all people, has had the most value on the basepaths this year.

Defensively, CF Denard Span and RF Ben Revere are tops on the team, while LF Josh Willingham mitigates his powerful bat with shambolic defense in LF. Mauer is a pretty good defensive catcher when he can actually play there. Unlike infields of Twins past, Casilla, Valencia, and Dozier are not so good defensively.

Notable injuries

Mauer sprained his thumb a few days ago and did not play in the last series. He's doubtful to play tonight and is scheduled to be "re-evaluated" today. SP Carl Pavano was injured (surprise!) last week and is out indefinitely. SP Scott Baker had TJS in april and is donezo for the year.

For the Cubs, Welington Castillo begins his rehab assignment today in AA. Soto is still out recovering from knee surgery. The timetable had him starting his rehab this weekend, but he's not ready yet. Soriano will get rest for his bad knee by DH-ing this series, and he says he's looking forward to returning to the field once it's over.

Pitching Matchups

As usual, ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP in parens.

Friday: Travis Wood, LHP (4.56, 6.19, 4.10, 4.27) vs P.J. Walters, RHP (3.69, 5.17, 4.11, 4.75), 7:10 PM CT

Travis Wood has had a bit of a HR problem in his small sample of starts this year (30% HR/FB). He did manage to keep the ball in the yard against the anemic Giants offense in his last start, striking out seven and allowing one run in seven innings, which of course earned him the loss. 2012 Cubs baseball!

Walters was a break-in-case-of-emergency starter for the Cardinals for several years, and made his way over to Toronto in the Colby Rasmus trade. He pitched a single inning for the blue Jays, then signed a minor league deal with the Twins this offseason. His ERA this year is mostly thanks to a crazy strand rate. He spends a lot of his time working out of trouble.

Saturday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.13, 3.04, 3.25, 3.95) vs Scott Diamond, LHP (1.86, 3.57, 3.03, 4.37), 1:10 PM CT

I had to stop for a second and figure out if the Twins had retreaded the Diamond that was a former Cub (and even more former Rangers top prospect), but that was Thomas Diamond. This Diamond was a rule 5 pick from the Braves that the Twins made a trade to keep around. He's very much a pitch to contact guy with a projected strikeout rate of 4.76 K/9. He's made six starts this year and only walked four batters, so his control must be pretty good. I wouldn't look for that number to go up this series.

Shark looked rocky in his last start, walking five batters and striking out six in five innings against the Giants. Luckily it was the Giants offense so the twelve baserunners in five innings only amounted to two runs. He had a solid stretch of seven starts where he never walked more than two batters, so hopefully this was just an aberration. He hasn't given up more than three runs in a start since April 19.

Sunday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.59, 3.34, 3.54, 3.95) vs Francisco Liriano, LHP (6.46, 4.63, 4.27, 4.08), 1:10 PM CT

Dempster finally got his first win, three months into the season after a 10-0 blowout of the Brewers. It was a nice bounceback following his shellacking by the Padres offense (and the wind at Wrigley). We'll see how much longer he's pitching in a Cubs uniform.

Liriano lost the plate last year (5.02 BB/9) and that trend has continued this season (5.67 BB/9). It's a bummer for the Twins, who could have really used him as a trade piece. He was demoted to the bullpen back in May and continued walking people all over the place, but in the two starts since he returned to the rotation he managed to keep the walks down. It probably helped that he was playing the Royals and A's, however.

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Comments

  1. jtsunami

    I’d take a flyer on Liriano if we want to buy low on some guys at the deadline. We don’t have Rothchild to straighten out the walks anymore, but Bosio really helped Shark. Ya never know…

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  2. Rice Cube

    Josh, I would recommend a Hope Monster chasing the two stick figure dudes while they sing the praises of Joe Mather. I would find the money to buy that shirt.

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  3. Pezcore

    Thomas Diamond is notable only in that any game from last season will have him turn into a top-of-the-rotation starter. Even OOTP 12 is not immune.

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  4. Pezcore

    @ jtsunami:
    Thepstien’s been buying low, selling high with some success (David DeJesus) and some failures (Ian Stewart). It was modus operandi in Boston and it’ll work well in Chi-town too. Liriano will need to be packaged carefully not to shatter in transport.

    I’d love to see them throw in the Japanese Two-Bagger if he’s still around. He was projected to do great things when he came in.

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  5. jtsunami

    So… “next round of bids”, does that mean the agent for Soler is telling each team the other team’s bids? If not, why would anyone increase their original bid?

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  6. ACT

    I wonder if Cashner would do better if he cut down on his velocity a bit. Chapman did, and he’s completely transformed.

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  7. josh

    @ ACT:
    I don’t know why teams encourage their guys to throw as hard as they can. That has always seemed counterproductive to me. Why does everyone have to be Nolan Ryan?

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  8. Mobile Rice

    @ josh:
    It makes sense every now and then to just throw it by the batter, but that should be in moderation. The pitcher’s goal should primarily be to deceive. Although I don’t know how much damage a fastball induces versus a curve or a slider. I think the latter two are performed with lots of arm stress even if the velocity isn’t as high.

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  9. josh

    @ Mobile Rice:
    Not sure either, but even just in terms of pitching. Like you said, rear back and put a little more on it occasionally, but seems like there are a lot of guys with all speed, no control.

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  10. Doogolas

    Pezcore wrote:

    Cubs, Yankees, DODGERS (?) and Braves are early favorites in the race for the 26-year old Cuban, asking price 1 Billion Dollars

    Soler is 20. Didn’t they do some pretty sufficient checking on that in the offseason, because he was originally “18” and then after some fact checking they figured out he was 20.

    Also, Chapman hardly throws 98-101 anymore. He’s averaging 97. 😛

    Good point about velocity though. I think there are plenty of guys that could benefit from that. And Fangraphs did a little thing about Halladay about how that’s exactly what he does. He generally doesn’t blaze it up in the mid-90’s, but when he’s in trouble he’ll reach back and get a couple extra MPH on his pitches.

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  11. WaLi

    I get why pitchers throw fast when they are young, it’s to get the big bucks. Reaching triple digits looks a lot better than mid 90’s. You would think pitching coaches would tell them to bring it down though once they get signed.

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  12. josh

    @ WaLi:
    Probably right, but it seems like control is something that guys should work on early. In high school, it probably gets almost everyone out to throw 100 down the middle, but they aren’t doing themselves any favor not learning how to throw young. Just what it seems like to me. Similar to how hitters can develop bad habits when they are young and the competition isn’t as good that lead to large holes in their swings and such.

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  13. SVB

    @ ACT:
    Brenly made some excuse about how a runner judges best as can based on trajectory and the sound off the bat. I guess Stewart is a little hard of hearing. Can’t blame the Metrodome anymore.

    @ josh:
    Nice to see Soriano doing well, IMO. (not just for the potential trade value to an AL team)

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  14. shawndgoldman

    @ josh:

    Well Soriano had a bunch of stands in the way of that one.

    How long does hittracker take these days to get their stuff up?

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  15. Rice Cube

    SVB wrote:

    If that had been in Chicago, it probably would have gone through a drunk guy not paying attention while on his cell phone.

    Since we’re talking rooftops…

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  16. shawndgoldman

    @ Rice Cube:

    Right, so the Cubs pay whatever is beyond that. The question is whether or not this affects his salary? If it goes down, I think the Cubs send over less $. Right?

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  17. shawndgoldman

    Isn’t this a situation where Marmol would make sense? You have a high likelihood of losing the game, unless you get a strikeout or three. He might walk the winning run in, but isn’t he also more likely to strike out a few?

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  18. Doogolas

    shawndgoldman wrote:

    Isn’t this a situation where Marmol would make sense? You have a high likelihood of losing the game, unless you get a strikeout or three. He might walk the winning run in, but isn’t he also more likely to strike out a few?

    Just wanted to say I had the exact same thought.

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  19. josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    That sucks that he dropped off the cliff like that. He was solid. I guess it’s good the Cubs got what they could off him before his value sank further.

    Clevenger…..might not be very good.

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  20. Doogolas

    Soriano only shows up when we lose. This is the equivalent of a guy not knowing when it counts. Like a pitcher who gives up 2 runs and loses 2-1. That’s why soriano sucks.

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  21. Doogolas

    josh wrote:

    @ Doogolas:
    I think the blame clearly goes on Tony Campana. He’s basically a clubhouse cancer. Cubs winning —> Campana in the game —-> Cubs lose.

    You know it’s probably a combination really. Between campana being IN the game and then Soriano being a lazy bum, we really just had no chance tonight. The fact we even made it 5 innings without giving up is a miracle in and of itself.

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  22. shawndgoldman

    @ josh:

    NO you don’t understand. He’s such a great clubhouse guy that when they put him on the field he spends *less time in the clubhouse* and the team gets worse.

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  23. Doogolas

    @ SVB:
    It’s more a combo of them as whole and how they just need to find the most ridiculous ways to blame whoever they think it’s fun to pick on.

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  24. ACT

    M’s have a collective no-hitter through 7. Unfortunately, their offense hasn’t supplied a single run in support.

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  25. josh

    @ Doogolas:
    Preferably a past hero, since that increases the drama (that “hero falls from the highest heights” storyline that’s been circulating since ancient Greece and probably before). Unfortuantely, Soriano has been done to death, and damned if that guy doesn’t take any insult hurled at him and somehow turn it around to make himself even more likeable as a person. So you have to strike that balance of past hero/high expectations and guy who cracks under pressure. Milton Bradley was like an underhand softball pitch to those guys.

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  26. josh

    My friend was trying to say that Twins fans had it worse off with Morneau than Cubs fans with Soriano. It probably seems bad with Morneau, but his contract was one year shorter and only $80M, and so long as he hits his projection this year, he’ll have that. Really, except for the fact that he basically missed all of last season, Morneau had a good run. He’s bad now, but that’s kind of how it goes.

    It’s not even close, in terms of value.

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  27. josh

    RE: Soriano’s Homerun.

    Agreed, that might have hit a building across the street. If the wind was blowing out, it may well have landed on the roof. That was a hell of a hit.

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  28. Suburban kid

    0Please sign in to rate!Please sign in to rate!0
    Eat At Joe’s • 1 hour 32 minutes ago Report Abuse

    “SCRUBS LOSE!! SCRUBS LOSE!!” Pathetic losers from a pathetic city. All time WORST sports franchise. Should be wiped off the face of the earth!

    Reply

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  29. Doogolas

    @ josh:
    Yeah. It’s just so infuriating. And to your point about Soriano, that’s exactly why I’ll miss him so much. He’s just the most likable guy, even the way he carries himself on the field. He might be the only guy I know of whose home run pose involves smiling. Every. Single. Time. He has a big smile on his face when he knows he connects and it’s awesome. And the fact that he doesn’t do the same little hop-thing after each one is cool too cause it always feels kind of spontaneous like he’s just super happy he did something good, as opposed to showboating (which I actually don’t mind at all). Add to that how he takes every criticism completely in stride and he’s just a super likable guy. And unlike Milton Bradley, he’s an albatross I’ll miss dearly.

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  30. Mucker

    So Sori’s blast was 443 ft and would have been a HR in 29 of 30 stadiums according to HitTracker……..WTF? What stadium would that blast not have been a HR in?

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  31. GBTS

    @ Mucker:
    I just looked at that. That was his first inning home run. His triple decker only comes in at a true distance of 418.

    Wow, I am both confused and impressed.

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  32. mb21

    @ ACT:
    I remember when he was drafted and I wanted the cubs to take him after Brett Jackson but I think he was taken before they had a chance.

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  33. Rice Cube

    @ GBTS:
    It was almost directly into deep left…maybe it was hit so high that it would’ve hit some of the catwalks in the Trop and been ruled a ground-rule double (dying laughing)

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  34. Rice Cube

    I was reading the ESPN Chicago article and it said the homer off the batter’s eye was only 431 feet. If he hit it to straightaway center as we saw, then it’s possible that the ball bounces up against Tal’s Hill in Houston and over the fence…so there’s the one possible park where that ball isn’t a homer.

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  35. josh

    @ GBTS:
    Yeah, he’s always bitching about Morneau, come to think of it. He’s from MN, so maybe he gives Mauer a pass for being local. Whereas Morneau is a dirty Canadian.

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  36. ACT

    Man, I’m getting tired of this Baker/LaHair platoon. I’ve said it before, but I don’t see why Stewart gets to bat against lefties but not LaHair.

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  37. Doogolas

    ACT wrote:

    Man, I’m getting tired of this Baker/LaHair platoon. I’ve said it before, but I don’t see why Stewart gets to bat against lefties but not LaHair.

    Stewart sucks vs everyone. LaHair has a noticeable drop off.

    It’s stupid. The only guess I have is to hide LaHair vs lefties as much as possible to keep his numbers looking as sexy as possible. But I mean, teams are gonna notice that. So it seems stupid. Probably because it is.

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  38. Urk

    Doogolas wrote:

    Yeah. It’s just so infuriating. And to your point about Soriano, that’s exactly why I’ll miss him so much. He’s just the most likable guy, even the way he carries himself on the field. He might be the only guy I know of whose home run pose involves smiling. Every. Single. Time. He has a big smile on his face when he knows he connects and it’s awesome. And the fact that he doesn’t do the same little hop-thing after each one is cool too cause it always feels kind of spontaneous like he’s just super happy he did something good, as opposed to showboating (which I actually don’t mind at all). Add to that how he takes every criticism completely in stride and he’s just a super likable guy. And unlike Milton Bradley, he’s an albatross I’ll miss dearly.

    Yeah- just exactly this for me. I know that it would be really good for the Cubs (and for him) if he could get palmed off on some American League team where he didn’t have to run on those hurt legs all the time.
    But I will really miss him. I like just about everything about the way he plays, except that I wish his legs still worked right.

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  39. josh

    @ Urk:
    Me too. The guy is hateproof. There have been times where I got frustrated, but it’s like hating a puppy. Can’t be done, not for more than a few seconds at a time.

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  40. Doogolas

    josh wrote:

    Me too. The guy is hateproof. There have been times where I got frustrated, but it’s like hating a puppy. Can’t be done, not for more than a few seconds at a time.

    Comic it.

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  41. Doogolas

    I want to stab Bob when he rambles this ridiculously much. As soon as he says, “I know there’s…” I want to gouge my eyes out.

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  42. Doogolas

    josh wrote:

    What does he know? Maybe I don’t want to know.

    About video film and stuff. And that swinging at the first pitch is for stupids.

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  43. Doogolas

    @ josh:
    As much as I like Bob Brenly, he can be absolutely infuriating.

    Also, Shark is doing his best Brandon Webb impression today. Jesus. His GB% is just under 60 today.

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  44. ACT

    Hey, Jeff: just because the Twins pitchers like to play polite and pitch to contact doesn’t mean you have to, as well.

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  45. Rice in limbo

    Pitchf/x makes it seem like F7 is trying to pound the ball in on the hands but the Twins’ bats are still muscling the ball out. Guess they need a new game plan.

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  46. Rice in limbo

    @ josh:
    It’s a little of both. Bloops, infield hits, not to mention all the mistake pitches he’s serving up to the hitters. I counted four or five line drives but I haven’t sorted through the play by play.

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  47. J

    On a team this terrible at hitting, Bryan LaHair is not a platoon player. He’s just not. Not when the other half is Jeff Baker. Players who are OPSing nearly 1.000 need to play every day. It feels like the Cubs are facing a lefty every other game lately, but not playing one of your only two good, fun players is not a good idea. And it’s not like Randy Johnson or CC Sabathia is starting. You play LaHair against Scott Diamond, dammit.

    I still haven’t seen anything to suggest that Sveum is a better manager than Quade. Not that either can do much with the talent that’s been here lately, but still.

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  48. Forrest Gyph

    J wrote:

    I still haven’t seen anything to suggest that Sveum is a better manager than Quade. Not that either can do much with the talent that’s been here lately, but still.

    .
    Damn right.
    .
    .

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  49. ACT

    It’s nice to see the Angels creeping up on the Rangers. I was worried that the race in the AL West would be extremely boring.

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  50. josh

    @ WaLi:
    What kind of beetle? That seems like a pretty strange transformation, either way. It’d be like saying a squirrel transformed back into an aardvark. Besides, there are some badass beetles out there:

    Harlequin Beetle

    The harlequin beetle. Just the body is about 3 inches long, and the legs are longer than the body. They’re great climbers.

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  51. mb21

    @ ACT:
    It’s not the ratio that leads me to believe he had a bad day. It’s that he struckout 1 batter while facing 20 batters and allowed a shitload of hits. As I said, I didn’t see the game so it’s possible they were all line drive smashes and it’s possible they were all bloop hits. I don’t know. It doesn’t mean anything as far as his next start goes.

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  52. josh

    I was looking up some stuff on the Twins. I completely forgot that Kirby Puckett died suddenly a few years ago. He was forced to retire when he went blind in one eye. I wonder if that’s why his numbers dropped suddenly. Now I’m depressed.

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  53. mb21

    Apologies for the site being low on content over the past few days. Aisle 424 has been on vacation and I’m out of town until tonight.

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  54. Suburban kid

    @ shawndgoldman:
    I saw an image displayed earlier, but not anymore.

    I’ve had no trouble with the img link except when posting an image from a server that doesn’t allow hotlinking.

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  55. bottleasmoke

    Im sorry if this is too late for consideration, but if Castro is the cubs infield captain (with all the responsibility that carries per the “Handling Starkin Castro” installment) then who is the captain of OV?

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  56. ACT

    @ Rice Cube:
    “Average” (as KG and scout use it) is a scouting term. It means a 50 on the 20-80 scale. 50 is actually faster than most players; e.g., Bryce Harper is 50-55 (“[h]e’s an average runner to a tick above”).

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  57. shawndgoldman

    Apparently the Cubs won’t feel this game is complete until it has an obligatory 9th inning rally.

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  58. Pezcore

    “On an everyday basis, yeah, everybody wants you to snap and yell and scream. But… find something to snap and yell and scream about. And I’ve already down that once. So what are you going to do? Are you going to keep doing it? It doesn’t make any sense when the guys are busting their (butts) and preparing every single day. # Shit Dale Svuem said to the Chicago Tribune

    So when did Sveum snap?

    “I’ve had my times,” he said. “You guys don’t have to know about all of them.”
    Sveum laughed and said he didn’t remember which game he snapped at, but confirmed it was a “couple weeks” ago.
    “It didn’t help, obviously,” he cracked. “In some areas it did.” #Shit Dale Sveum said to the Chicago Tribune

    I’m beginning to think Dale Svuem is a particularly bad manager, and not good with PR.

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  59. Rice Cube

    @ josh:
    I don’t know how you quantify it but it seems like the coaching staff was able to at least improve the defense, in particular Castro seems to be better (even though he does have brain farts). If a manager is supposed to emphasize the fundamentals and keep the peace in the clubhouse then I guess he’s doing okay so far…

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  60. ACT

    The Cubs have made a huge improvement in defensive efficiency since last year. Some of that is surely personnel changes (Stewart > Ramirez), but some of it might be coaching, as well.

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  61. josh

    @ ACT:
    Castro is much improved, and Thoyer definitely looked for guys who could play D. Isn’t DeJesus a natural center fielder? Soriano also has improved, which is more surprising, though with his injury, that might decline some.

    Speaking of D, I watched the last play on this reel several times in other formats and it looked like Dee Gordon was safe, but the super slo mo seems to justify the call at the end: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22186709&topic_id=17392054

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  62. SVB

    @ Rice Cube:
    So this was on Fox TV, right? Yet it’s front page at Yahoo Sports. My question, why report this crap? Yup, Quintero is a loser, it’s a dumb thing to do, especially on TV, but is it newsworthy?

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