Well that was, uh, not great. At least the Cubs transition from playing one of the best teams in the league to one of the worst. Weird shit tends to happen on west coast road trips though, so who knows what will happen. The Padres are as bad as their record, with the second worst offense in baseball by wOBA and third worst by ERA. Former Cubs Trevor Cahill and Clayton Richard lead the team in WAR. The Cubs thankfully 'dodge' them in this series, however, as Cahill is on the DL and Richard pitched on Saturday.
Team Leaders
Cubs
- OBP: Kris Bryant (.394)
- ISO: Bryant (.264)
- HR: Anthony Rizzo (12)
- R+RBI: Bryant (57)
- wRC+: Bryant (146)
- BSR: Jon Jay (2.5)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta (10.16)
- SP BB/9: Arrieta (2.38)
- SP FIP: Jon Lester (3.46)
- RP K/9: Carl Edwards Jr (12.00)
- RP BB/9: Brian Duensing (2.05)
- RP FIP: Wade Davis (2.09)
- WAR: Bryant (1.7)
Papas
- OBP: Allen Cordoba (.351)
- ISO: Ryan Schimpf (.279)
- HR: Schimpf (13)
- R+RBI: Wil Myers (57)
- wRC+: Myers (115)
- BSR: Erick Aybar (1.6)
- SP K/9: Trevor Cahill (11.10)
- SP BB/9: Clayton Richard (2.49)
- SP FIP: Cahill (2.87)
- RP K/9: Brad Hand (11.57)
- RP BB/9: Jose Torres (1.50)
- RP FIP: Brandon Maurer (2.62)
- WAR: Cahill (1.1)
Injuries, transactions, vengeance pacts, etc.
Ben Zobrist has been dealing with a sore wrist since last Friday. And the entire team seems like it needs to come down with a case of David Patton disease.
The Padres have a whole lot of players down, and with how eclectic this team is I'm not sure which ones actually matter. Cahill is on the DL with a shoulder strain, which is the most notable one. Carter Capps, he of the bizarre/illegal delivery, is on his way back from TJS last year. And hey, somehow Jared Weaver is still in the bigs. Well, on the DL in the bigs.
Pitching matchups
K%, BB%, ERA, projected ERA listed for each starter.
Monday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (20.1%, 8.4%, 3.25, 3.45) vs Jarred Cosart, RHP (11.1%, 15.3%, 4.50, 5.06), 3:40 PM CT
Kyle has looked more Kyle-like this year, though not necessarily Cyle-like. He went seven strong innings in his last start and is the current title holder for most reliable Cubs starter. But that crown has not rested easily on the heads of those who wear it this season, or some other such cliche.
The Padres were rescued from another terrible Cosart start his last time out due to a foul ball that was hit off his foot. He too has pitched like one would expect Jarred Cosart to pitch. He has not gien up a home run this year, so he has that going for him I guess.
Tuesday: Eddie Butler, RHP (15.0%, 16.7%, 1.93, 5.00) vs Dinelson Lamet, RHP (40.0%, 10.0%, 1.80, 4.41), 9:10 PM CT
The Cubs have managed to squeeze three starts out of Butler while avoiding giving up a boatload of runs. If they're going to stretch it to four, this probably represents the best chance.
Lamet has one major league start under his belt, a five inning, one run, eight strikeout outing against the Mets last week. He throws hard: 95-98 on his fastball and has an okay slider. Based on his minor league numbers he skews toward being fly ball guy. Given how the Cubs seem to pop out two times an inning maybe that's not so great.
Wednesday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (26.1%, 6.1%, 4.92, 3.22) vs Luis Perdomo, RHP (22.0%, 6.8%, 5.61, 3.76), 2:40 PM CT
Perdomo has one of the strangest fangraphs pages that I have seen. He was in the Cardinals farm system from 2011-2015 and never rose above high A ball. Then he made 20 starts for the Padres in 2016, posting a 5.71 ERA. And he's back his year. Perhaps they mixed him up with the other Luis Perdomo who made 60 appearances as the long man out of the pen for the Padres in 2009 and was also not good. Doing some actual googling, he was a rule 5 guy, so I guess that makes a little more sense. Also, I love how a 5.71 ERA in 146 innings is considered a rule 5 success, per the fangraphs story I found when googling (dying laughing). He throws a lot of fastballs.
Comments
To-day’s base ball squadron
RF Zobrist
LF Schwarber
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
C Montero
CF Heyward
2B Baez
SS Russell
P Hendricks
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Grimm——> Cubs
Pena ——-> Iowa
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
That fixes all the problems.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs should score at least 5 runs this series. I’m betting on a total of 6.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cosart is terrible.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Russell!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Addy must have heard the shade we threw his way in the pod. Or at least his glove did.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Maybe you should consider throwing shade at a number of other players and Joe while you’re at it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Why didn’t Russell run there?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugggggggghhhhhhhhhhh
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
Those fifty or so runners the Cubs stranded really hurt now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Last year’s team would have put this away early. This year? This happens.
dmick89Quote Reply
A grand slam to the Padres because of fucking course.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This year’s pitching staff loves giving up home runs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Three straight lefties in the lineup is kind of dumb.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Here we go again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
If the Cubs can’t win this series, they don’t deserve to win another game for the rest of the year.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Maybe the Cubs window was only two years.
dmick89Quote Reply
Heyward used up the Cubs’ hit with RISP for the week.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’m still feeling pretty good about my prediction of 6 runs scored for the Cubs in this series. I was thinking it might be a bit high, but I think they can do it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jesus.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
ALL the LOB
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
The Padres have walked 10 and are still ahead.
What. The. Fuck.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
There’s a reason why you are known as the optimist around here.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Perkins,
And an HBP!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Russell again!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jesus, Javy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Another gift runner to stand.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Cubs hav a handful of number 7 or 8 hitters in their everyday lineup.
dmick89Quote Reply
Russell has been making some great catches and terrible throws.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Why do you PH Happ for Zobrist? Zobrist is one of the few guys with a clue lately.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Maybe his wrist is still bothering hin
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
That might also explain the bunt attempts in his previous at-bat.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What a stupid game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
FUCK
THIS
NOISE
uncle daveQuote Reply
Trout ——> DL
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
At least the Cubs have Eddie “The Stopper” Butler going today.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
He might be the only Cubs player on the all star team.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s too bad that Weaver is on the DL and missing this series. It would be the ultimate test of stoppable force vs movable object.
berseliusQuote Reply
Maybe the Cubs are losing more games now so that they can have even more sustained winning in later years.
EdwinQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Zobrist
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Jay
Heyward
Contreras
Russell
Butler
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
It says a lot about what’s happened to this lineup that I’m actually not the least bit surprised to see Jay hit in the 5th spot and possibly be deserving of hitting higher.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wonder if the NL Central division winner will have a record over .500.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
If it’s under 85 the Cubs should have a decent shot. I just hope Arrieta turns it around so the Cubs have the option of trading him at the deadline. If they’re only a mediocre team, I’d rather they get some prospects for him, but right now they couldnt get shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Well, at least they weren’t shut out.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
I enjoyed that lead while it lasted. That was a fun five minutes
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
the Cubs have graduated to grabbing an early lead only to give it up later.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs could score as many runs if they replaced their offense with the I-Cubs offense. Not even joking.
dmick89Quote Reply
Schwarber!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Brewers lose. Cardinals lose. Pirates lose. Reds lose.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
So the whole shitty division loses.
dmick89Quote Reply
Remember 2015 when the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs were the three best teams in the league? A lot can change real fast.
dmick89Quote Reply
You’d think somebody would want to win the division. Playoffs are fun!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Covfefe.
That is all.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Rice in limbo,
Says it all right there.
EdwinQuote Reply
KuBz
RynoQuote Reply
Well isn’t that appropriate. Let’s try again…
KuBz
RynoQuote Reply
progress!
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I predict the Cubs bats break out today, but they lose 16-4.
dmick89Quote Reply
If the Cubs score only 2 today, they’ll reach the 6 run prediction I had for them at the start of this series. That’s fucking pathetic.
dmick89Quote Reply
Your 2017 Chicago Cubs!
EdwinQuote Reply
There’s one of the four home runs I expect Arrieta to surrender today.
dmick89Quote Reply
Tight zone today.
EdwinQuote Reply
If I got to pitch against the Cubs offense, my final line would be 5 IP, 4 hits, 3 walks (I can get a little wild), 1 run (unearned), 8 strikeouts, 2 HBP.
dmick89Quote Reply
there’s no shame in losing to the best, you guys.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
The Cubs hitters need to pretend they’re facing Kershaw.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Cubs can’t even win this horrible division. The Cardinals will find a way to win 84 and then probably win the World Series.
dmick89Quote Reply
I was way wrong on that prediction. The Padres could still get 16, but there’s not a chance in hell of the Cubs even coming anywhere near 4 runs.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs are going to get swept by the Padres. What. The. Fuck.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Remember when Rizzo used to hit line dives?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Next year could really suck too if the Cubs don’t get some of these guys to bounce back. I was really expecting more than just two good years.
dmick89Quote Reply
We stinks.
EdwinQuote Reply
dmick89,
Just remember, this team is still 1-2 years ahead of schedule.
EdwinQuote Reply
These guys should have to sit through a group hypnosis session like the Knights in “The Natural” just so they have to waste their own time as badly as they’re wasting ours.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Edwin,
That was a popular thing to say when the farm system was still good. They’ve got no pitching and not a whole lot of hitting either. They do look best at the low minors level, but that’s part of the 5-year rebuilding plan they’ll have to put themselves in because they suck ass this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
uncle dave,
Yeah, something. At least in the past we knew they were going to suck.
dmick89Quote Reply
if the cubs scored 5 runs per game against the padres, that would actually reduce the padres’ RA for the season. the cubs scored 5 runs in the whole series. that’s…not good.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I expected a lot from Schwarber, but the guy probably needs to go to Iowa. Not even sure he’s deserving of hitting in the 8th spot (that spot is too crowded).
dmick89Quote Reply
All I’ll say is, I’d be taking this season a lot harder if last year’s game seven had ended differently.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I forgot that this was a day game. Great work, subconscious!
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
This is pretty much where my head’s at. This season is baffling so far, but not as infuriating to me as it probably should be.
It will only be infuriating if the Cardinals win the World Series.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I haven’t been reading every word and the Cubs suck again. It’s clearly all my fault.
ceruleanQuote Reply
what everyone needs to do, is to take a deep breath, calm down, and start preparing their bodies for the Thunderdome. That is the new law.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
don’t tell me what to do.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
This season has started to piss me off. I’d probably have been pissed off sooner if they hadn’t won the World Series last year, but what really gets me now is two things: the Cubs did nothing this past offseason and more importantly, the Cubs future looks a lot less bright. I have no doubt Rizzo will rebound. Despite a .206 BABIP, he still has a 114 wRC+. He’s on pace to be a little better than average (probably around 2.5 wins or so if he kept up his current pace). He won’t do that. He’ll have a higher BABIP and his end of season line will look a bit low compared to past seasons, but he’ll be fine. I’m much less confident about Contreras and especially Schwarber. Addison Russell has never been a good hitter, but he’s taken it to the extreme this year and his power is gone. So is his ability to throw.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m not advocating it, but one could seriously look at this roster (especially the pitching) and make a case that the team needs to a seller at the deadline. If they’re sitting at or near .500 at the deadline, I probably would advocate being a seller (Arrieta who seems to have reverted back to being an Oriole, Lackey, Davis, Rondon and Strop should all probably be available). You can’t trade them all if that happens, but some of them.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I actually wouldn’t hate seeing them sell if they’re still this mediocre close to the trade deadline. They’d be doing basically what the Yankees did last year, except with a (theoretically) more talented core. Given that Arrieta has about a zero chance of sticking around, I’d love to see what a desperate team pays for him.
Better still would be the Cubs’ getting their shit together and playing anywhere close to their true talent level.
PerkinsQuote Reply
If the Cubs get swept by the Cardinals this weekend, will Bleacher Nation still exist come Monday?
EdwinQuote Reply
Perkins,
I still wouldn’t mind trading Arrieta even if the Cubs turn it around. It would require Arrieta turning it around for him to be valuable, but if they do start playing well, he’s probably going to be a part of the reason why.
dmick89Quote Reply
Willson is hitting close to his projections now, which of course is worse than his actual numbers last year, but good enough to be a valuable catcher.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Again with the Thunderdome. Can’t we just get…Beyond Thunderdome?
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
rip earth.
EdwinQuote Reply
I’ll take a wait-and-see approach.
PerkinsQuote Reply
No time for a new series preview.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
So the Cubs basically now need to play .600 ball the rest of the way in order to reach 90 wins. I think that’s doable, and I think they could probably win the division with as low as 86 wins (which would mean playing .555 ball the rest of the way), but I’m worried about how much they’ll have left in the tank once they get to the Playoffs. They’re also at that point now where a major injury to someone like Lester or Bryant could seriously hurt their playoff chances.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin, I wouldn't say no chance of 90 wins, but I think the best this team can hope for is 84-86 wins. If that turns out to be good enough for the playoffs then that's great. If it turns out to not be good enough then they need to consider selling some pieces by the deadline.
dmick89Quote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Happ (CF)
Bryzzobrist
Heyward
Montero
Schwarber
Russell
Lackey
PerkinsQuote Reply
Matchups this series
Lynn vs Lackey
Leake v Lester
Wacha v Hendricks
berseliusQuote Reply
Perkins,
It only took 50+ games to drop Schwarber that far in the lineup.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s go time.
EdwinQuote Reply
Cubs lose.
PerkinsQuote Reply
We’re gonna go 25-137 this year.
uncle daveQuote Reply
We’re gonna be so bad that the league will probably go back and take away some of the games we’ve already won.
uncle daveQuote Reply
They might even go back and take away the trophy from last year.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Fortunately, we have an explosive offense to help dig us out of this hole.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
uncle daveQuote Reply
Screw it, just take the rest of the year off. It’s sunny outside.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Terrible strike 1 call on Schwarber. That PA should have been a walk.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Holy Crap that was a terrible strike call on Schwarber. 3-0 gimme call. And then he strikes out, should have been a walk. This is Cubs baseball.
EdwinQuote Reply
5 years of suck, 2 years of really good and then back to suck. Good rebuilding plan.
dmick89Quote Reply
At least Bryant has shown up this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs are not hitting the umpire jackpot today.
EdwinQuote Reply
Cubs got their one run for the day. Do we really need to play these final innings?
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
I don’t know why they bother playing any innings. I think the union would be pissed the Cubs are risking the health of their players for no reason.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs should start playing by first to score rules because if they don’t score that one run first, they’re fucked.
dmick89Quote Reply
the Cubs had no chance of winning this game one batter into it.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs remind me of the 1998 and 2004 Marlins except they didn’t get any prospects back after they won the World Series.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryan Dempster joins the booth, and I head for lunch.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Either this strike zone is really awful or the Statcast data feeding the automated zone is poorly calibrated.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Probably both.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Grand Salami time, amirite? Weak fly to the left field basket.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Strop coming in to face the Cardinals with the bases loaded. What could go wrong?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Of course it is Molina coming to the plate in this situation.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Strop? I’d bring in someone who isn’t going to walk in the winning run.
dmick89Quote Reply
Shut me right up.
PerkinsQuote Reply
UNPOSSIBLE!!!
ceruleanQuote Reply
Hopefully the Cubs aren’t just setting themselves up for a sixteen inning loss
BerseliusQuote Reply
So this is where the game goes 16 innings and the Cubs lose.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
21 innings would be optimal—Rizzo and the Cards’ D disagrees—that way we could hear Ryan Dempster three times.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dramatically better than 7 years of suck though
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Nice baserunning there by Rizzo.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
Great minds, etc, etc
BerseliusQuote Reply
well played
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Nice, Antny.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is an offensive explosion! Three runs is as many as they score in a series!
ceruleanQuote Reply
For those of you who had “Heyward is our best hitter” in the pool, please step forward and collect your winnings.
uncle daveQuote Reply
The well-rested Wade Davis.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Hope he remembers how to pitch.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Surprised he even showed up at the ballpark tbqh
uncle daveQuote Reply
Cubs…win? What sorcery is this?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Fixed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That was an unusual game.
dmick89Quote Reply
cerulean,
THAT’S WHAT I’M TALKIN’ ‘BOUT, BABY
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, the Cubs won.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Is that what they call it?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Had to look it up, but yeah.
uncle daveQuote Reply
The Cubs have gone 34 innings straight without putting up a crooked number. I think if they get to 57, they win a million dollars. #beatTheStreak
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the Cubs won’t be able to score off Cy Leake, but they have an outside chance of winning the series against Wacha.
…
Really!? A Sunday night game!? Cubs lose.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Catching up on the game now. Yay Cubs win and all that, but I can’t believe Maddon allowed Lackey to hit in the bottom of the seventh, only to pull him at the top of the eighth.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
Every pitcher is Cy against the Cubs except those who have actually won the award. Those are the games we get a glimpse of how good they could be if they didn’t suck against all the other pitchers.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
For what it’s worth, he had pretty much burned his entire bench the inning before. He still could have pinch hit Javy, but maybe he was saving his last bullet for a potential situation with RISP in extras.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius,
I think everyone was expecting a 16 inning loss at that point so may as well save Javy.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-3-cardinals-2-6-2-17/
berseliusQuote Reply