The league's best team vs the worst. The Cubs run differential is +149, which is more twice as much as the next best (Red Sox, +70). The Braves are -97, which is only one run worse than the Reds. This series is about as lopsides as it gets on paper. The Braves snapped a 6-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Padres on Wednesday. Atlanta is just 6-23 in their home park this season. They're going out in style in Turner Field's last season. The Cubs are 19-9 on the road.
Team Leaders
Cubs (100 PA)
- OBP: Ben Zobrist (.436)
- ISO: Anthony Rizzo (.259)
- HR: Kris Bryant (14)
- R+RBI: Bryant (87)
- wRC+: Dexter Fowler (150)
- BSR: Javier Baez (2.9)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta (9.79)
- SP BB/9: Jon Lester (1.94)
- SP FIP: Arrieta (2.49)
- RP K/9: Pedro Strop (13.10)
- RP BB/9: Rondon (0.93)
- RP FIP: Rondon (1.89)
- WAR: Fowler (3.2)
Kris Bryant's 14th home run put him one ahead of Anthony Rizzo. Jon Lester took a small lead away from Kyle Hendricks in BB/9 and Pedro Strop has barely passed Hector Rondon in K/9 for relievers. Ben Zobrist has struggled a bit lately, but started to come out of his slump in the last game or two.
Braves
- OBP: Gordon Beckham (.382)
- ISO: Freddy Freeman (.181)
- HR: Freeman (9)
- R+RBI: Nick Markakis (53)
- wRC+: Beckham (126)
- BSR: Freeman/Jeff Francoeur (0.8)
- SP K/9: Julio Teheran (8.45)
- SP BB/9: Matt Wisler (2.52)
- SP FIP: Teheran (4.14)
- RP K/9: Arodys Vizcaino (12.60)
- RP BB/9: Eric O'Flaherty (2.60)
- RP FIP: Vizcaino (2.45)
- WAR: Chase d'Arnaud (0.9)
There were only two Braves hitters who qualify for the batting title so to make the list long enough to pick the best numbers from, I had to reduce the plate appearances to 100. Chase d'Arnaud has only 92 plate appearances, but leads the team in fWAR. Freddy Freeman has 0.6. This team is bad at baseball.
Pitching Matchups
K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, Projected ERA listed for each pitcher
Friday: Jason Hammel, RHP (8.00, 3.43, 2.14, 3.41, 3.80) vs Bud Norris, RHP (6.46, 4.70, 5.28, 5.08, 4.26), 6:35 PM CT
I'm not sure why, but I always think Bud Norris is a lefty. For some reason I always get him confused with Bud Smith. Norris hasn't been very good. He began the year in the rotation and after 5 starts was moved to the bullpen. In those 5 starts he threw 22.2 innings, allowed 34 hits and 6 home runs. He walked 11 and struckout 17. By the end of the first month he had an 8.74 ERA and 6.53 FIP.
He moved to the bullpen and made 12 appearances from May 2nd through June 1st. He pitched OK in relief. He had a shiny ERA, but his K/9 was only 6.87 and his BB/9 was 4.42. He was given another start on the 4th against the Dodgers and he threw 5 innings, allowed 3 hits and a run. He walked 4 and struckout 2. Thankfully it earned him another start and the Cubs batters should be able to take advantage of his control issues and knock him out early.
Hammel has done a much better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark this season, but his 6.3% HR/FB rate is probably due for some regression at some point. Hopefully not tonight.
Saturday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (9.79, 2.93, 1.80, 2.49, 2.72) vs Matt Wisler, RHP (6.59, 2.49, 3.98, 4.23, 4.34), 3:10 PM CT
Wisler is only 23 years old and he made 19 starts (20 appearances) for the Braves last season. His strikeout rate was pretty good in the low minors and even at AA, but in AAA it began to drop in 2014. In 2015 in AAA it declined even more (6.78 per 9). Last season it was only 5.94, but his walk rate was OK at 3.3. He didn't have a good season, but his 4.71 ERA and 4.93 FIP at the age of 22 was enough to keep him in the rotation. His strikeout rate has increased to 6.59 and his walk rate has dropped by nearly a walk per 9 innings (2.49. His ERA is now down 3.98 and his FIP down 4.23. If he can increase that strikeout rate a bit more and keep the walks down, he could be valuable in the same way that Kyle Hendricks is. His average fastball is close to 93 mph so I'm kind of surprised he doesn't get more strikeouts.
Arrieta has gone two starts since his last win, which is probably the most he's gone in nearly a year. His last start was not a good one in some ways and a great one in other ways. He gave up 9 hits. The BABIP gods did not like Jake Arrieta that day. The Diamondbacks have actually figured Arrieta out. In 12 innings against them this season he's allowed 17 hits and 6 runs. Arrieta's last 3 starts haven't been the best so he's due for a good one and this is a good team to get it done.
Sunday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.92, 1.94, 2.06, 2.99, 3.04) vs Casey Kelly, RHP (2.35, 2.35, 2.93, 4.63, 4.71), 12:35 PM CT
Kelly hasn't officially been named the starter for this game, but he's the most likely to start. He's only appeared in 5 games for the Braves this season and made just one start. His last start was May 22 at Philladelphia. He threw 5 innings, allowed 7 hits and 3 runs. He walked 1, struckout 1 and gave up a home run.
Kelly was once considered a top prospect. he was picked in the 1st round (30th overall) in the 2008 draft by the Red Sox. He was traded to the Padres after the 2010 season and made his MLB debut in 2012. He missed all of 2013 after having Tommy John surgery.
Aside from some early season struggles in 2015, Jon Lester has been everything the Cubs signed him to be. He's having the best season of his career right now.
Prediction: I hate to predict a sweep on the road, but the Cubs really should sweep this series and I think they will.
Comments
http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/06/09/jean-machi-arrested-for-public-intoxication-and-urinating-in-public/
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
In his defense, Des Moines is really boring.
dmick89Quote Reply
is there any reason to believe that baez’s recent dip in K’s is sustainable?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
“He’s having the best season of his career right now. ” Describes most Cubs these days.
EdwinQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Maybe. His Swing Strike % is still pretty high, so I’m not betting on it. I also thought Kyle Hendricks was a 5th starter at best, Jeff Samardzija was a middle relief pitcher, Jason Hammel was terrible, Jake Arrieta would be lucky to stick in the rotation, and Matt Szcur would never see the MLB team.
EdwinQuote Reply
Right now Baez is actually swingingn on a career high % of pitches outside the zone. In the past he’s made contact on around 45% of them, this season it’s 66%. I’m not sure that’s a solid approach for long term success.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Yeah, either he stops swinging at pitches out of the zone as frequently as he has or he’ll start swinging and missing more frequently resulting in more strikeouts.
If we looked at Baez’s stats prior to his 4-4 game, they weren’t all that impressive. Now they don’t look so bad. That’s what happens when you’ve only had 123 plate appearances. He’s a great defender, but I don’t see him being much of an impact talent with the bat. He swings at almost everything. Sometimes I’m not even sure he knows where the pitch is. He’s making contact on pitches in the zone at a better rate, but still well below average. I don’t know for sure, but I’m guessing that’s a pretty good indication that 1) he’s making better contact and 2) his contact% on pitches out of the zone is due for some serious regression.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Or he’ll morph in Vlad Guerero and hit home runs on balls six feet off the plate.
joshQuote Reply
It’s always fun when you play a team, and your records are palindromes, or near palindromes.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
I know right? It’s kind of nuts.
joshQuote Reply
I was looking at the season projections. Last time I checked the White Sox had like a 60% chance of winning their division. It has fallen dramatically.
joshQuote Reply
josh,
I guess it’s probably only fun for one of the teams, though.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Yeah, my favorite day of the entire baseball season is the second game of the season. All the games are the league’s best vs. the league’s worst.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
What’s your least favorite day of the entire baseball season?
EdwinQuote Reply
Nope. He’s just trying to make contact, and boy is that contact usually shitty.
MylesQuote Reply
Haven’t done a single second of mlb draft scouting, but I hope the Cubs take Kyle Funkhouser, who turned down 1.3 million to try to improve his draft stock and sucked this year. My entire thought process is people thought he was good before, and at this point you are pretty much just going on feel.
MylesQuote Reply
Cubs draft Tom Hatch. He’s exactly as white as his name sounds.
EdwinQuote Reply
Can confirm
joshQuote Reply
Cubs should trade Dex, Zobrist, Bryant, and Rizzo and focus on rebuilding that minor league system.
joshQuote Reply
He’s about as Cubs a pick as they can make. Prior injury history? Check. Low strikeouts? Check. Sinker/Slider GB% guy? Check.
EdwinQuote Reply
Sunday. That day is meant to celebrate our Lord. Not dress up and play silly games.
dmick89Quote Reply
I didn’t notice the White Sox cut Rollins
joshQuote Reply
Well, dress up and play silly games, but only in designated areas.
joshQuote Reply
It seems the low strikeout thing is an organizational philosophy at this point. I don’t get it. If the Cubs were to trade Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo to some team for prospects, they’d get a couple prospects in return who strikeout 6 per 9 and walk under 2.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/clemson-regional-thomas-hatch/#1S6Lcim4Yp3jo4Kt.97
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs try the old “Draft two players at once strategy” and accidently draft Tyson Miller.
EdwinQuote Reply
Miller has the standard RHP mix of Fastball/Slider/Change, with the normal “Fastball 91-94, possible plus slider, change is a work in progress” type of scouting report. I guess he’s from a small school, but unlike Hayden Simpson, he’s actually getting drafted in an appropriate round, and actually has enough athleticism for upside. I just hope he’s already had mono.
EdwinQuote Reply
RHP Bailey Clark from Duke in the 5th round. Fastball can hit 99 and a slider in the low to mid 80s. Loses velocity early so many believe he’s destined for the bullpen.
dmick89Quote Reply
If Clark can move through the system quickly in the bullpen, I’m fine with that considering the Cubs are contending. If it’s going to take 4 or 5 years to get him straightened out so he can start, I’d much prefer the reliever route.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs draft Baily Clark from Duke. Duke sucks, so he probably sucks too. He’s pretty much an instant RP candidate. I think he actually lost his spot as a starter at Duke.
EdwinQuote Reply
Which is a huge change from the way it was for many years under Hendry and Rothschild. I can’t remember before 2002, but from then until somewhere around the end of Ryan Dempster’s tenure the Cubs always seemed to have the highest pitcher strikeout totals.
SKQuote Reply
It’s white, but it’s not the whitest name around. I always thought Ted Lilly was an intensely white name.
SKQuote Reply
Baez getting the start. Almora and Coghlan on the bench.
I would have thrown Coghlan straight in there against Bud Norris and the Barves, a guy and a team set up perfectly to get his confidence back.
SKQuote Reply
Cubs draft Chad Hockin, another bullpen arm. Fastball/Slider guy.
EdwinQuote Reply
Rizzo scratched with back tightness.
dmick89Quote Reply
SKQuote Reply
I’m starting the think the Cubs should just drafting guys who can take over for injured Cubs this season.
dmick89Quote Reply
game thread is up: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-braves-game-thread-6-10-16/
dmick89Quote Reply