The Reds are still the team to beat in the NL Central. They had a rough first road trip, losing two of three in St. Louis and getting swept in Pittsburgh, but bounced back with a sweep of the Phillies and winning three of four against the Marlins. The Cubs, meanwhile, already seem to be falling apart in April. It only seems like a matter of time before Sveum gets gif-ed up in a straitjacket like Cuey. The Cubs offense is lousy (second worst in the NL), but what drives me crazier has been the defense. Castro's made a few errors, but I don't really care that much on that front. That's what happens when you have the most fielding chances on the team. The pitching staff has been chipping in to replace Matt Garza's defense by throwing the ball all over the diamond. I think Scott Feldman has had a throwing error in every game he's pitched, and let's not forget Shawn Camp balking in a game-tying run, or the Cubs tying a record for five wild pitches in a single inning. This is little league shit. It's still April so I'm fine to chalking it up to (partly) shitty luck. The team is bad, but I don't think it's *this* bad.
Team Overviews
I'm switching from the 2012 numbers to 2013. Small sample sizes apply, of course. NL ranking in parens.
| Cubs | Reds | |
| wRC+ | 83 (14th) | 110 (3rd) |
| BSR | -0.3 (6th) | 1.2 (4th) |
| UZR | -10.1 (15th) | 0.3 (8th) |
| DRS | -15 (15th) | 11 (3rd) |
| SP FIP- | 91 (4th) | 88 (2nd) |
| RP FIP- | 100 (8th) | 111 (14th) |
I'm kind of surprised to see that the Reds pen has fared so poorly, when it was arguably the best unit of their team last season. However, Sean Marshall and Sam LeCure have been hurt, so that's probably a big reason why their numbers are down. I expect that ranking to get much much better as we get more samples.
Injuries
Reds SS Zack Cozart bruised his fingers on a bunt attempt over the weekend, but none of them were broken. Him being back in the lineup is probably a good thing for the Cubs, considering Dusty's proclivities in batting the career .285 OBP player in the second spot. Catcher Ryan Hanigan hit the DL with a strained oblique suffered while stretching to catch an errant Aroldis Chapman pitch. Sean Marshall is on the DL with shoulder inflammation and is elgible to come back tomorrow. However, it looks like it will be a while longer until he gets back. He's thrown a bullpen session or two but still needs a rehab assignment. The Reds are also missing ace Johnny Cueto, who hit the DL a week or so ago with a lat strain. OF Ryan Ludwick has a torn labrum and is out until after the ASB.
Matt Garza is still working his way back from a lat strain, and this is more or less his spring training now. He was supposed to pitch for Kane County the other day, but the game was rained out. He threw a simulated game on Friday in Milwaukee and threw a bullpen yesterday. He'll probably be shipped off to AA soon to throw some longer outings. Fujikawa is elgible to come back in a week, but he'll probably get some minor league time in. The Cubs will see how well his elbow has recovered from the rest, and cross their fingers that his forearm injury isn't a TJS indicator. Ian Stewart is rehabbing in AAA and has looked awful. He's making Brett Jackson's strikeout rate seem fantastic with his numbers so far. The Cubs aren't in any rush to get him back to the bigs.
Random News and Storylines
Buster Olney hears buzz around the industry that the Cubs would be leading suitors to get David Price from the Rays at some point (and would presumably extend him, because WTF otherwise). I'm not so sure I see that happening, though Price's age would make him rather appealing. The cost would probably be too high though. I don't think that Thoyer particularly care if they drop in the farm system rankings by trading for a guy like Price if it improves the org as a whole. The Cubs should have some money to spend, and the way things are going it's not like they're likely to get a guy like Price on the FA market anymore.
Joey Votto has been doing Joey Votto things this year. Three weeks into the season, he already has more than 2/3 the walks (25) that Starlin Castro stat-gathered in all of 2012 (36). He's also homered three times, stolen a base, and plays excellent D at first. He should be an easy pick for NL MVP.
I'm glad that the Cubs aren't facing Bronson Arroyo this season. He stinks, but always seems to shut down the Cubs anyway.
Pitching Matchups
Huge sample size issues apply, but I will list the pitchers' 2013 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and ZiPS projected FIP.
Monday: Travis Wood, LHP (1.83, 74, 4.56, 4.27) vs Mike Leake, RHP (4.26, 110, 4.32, 4.46), 6:10 PM CT
Wood's had a solid couple of starts, and has managed to pretty much pitched his way into guaranteeing himself a rotation spot when Garza returns. However, the lack of HR allowed has been a big factor in his great start. He's striking out even less than his usual mediocre numbers, and has thrown a lot fewer strikes. Regresionnnnnnnn…Regression.
Leake continues to be his consistendly average self. He posted FIPs of 4.22 and 4.42 in the last two seasons, and sits at 4.3 for 2013. He was knocked around and had a 1:1 K:BB ratio in his first two starts, but managed to shut down the Phillies for seven innings in his last start, fanning seven and walking no one. Leake throws a ton of different pitches, but his primary pitch is his two-seam fastball and his slider is his out pitch.
Tuesday: Carlos Villanueva, RHP (1.29, 106, 3.38, 4.05) vs Tony Cingrani, LHP (1.80, 108, 2.47, 4.40), 6:10 PM CT
The 'Stache has had an incredible run to start the year. His strikeout rate is right in line with where it has been as a starter, but his walk rate is what has really shined so far. Villanueva currently has a 15:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Obviously, his walk rate should shoot back up to the threes going forward, but it's still nice to see him get off to a great start. He look like he might be this year's Paul Maholm.
We don't know much about Cingrani. He posted huge strikeout rates in the minors, but it's kind of puzzling to me. His only plus pitch is his fastball, and he only throws in the low 90s. Per pfx, in his ten career innings in the bigs he's thrown 186 fastballs to 36 non-fastballs. I expect Soriano to have a huge game.
Wednesday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.38, 68, 2.71, 3.41) vs Mat Latos, RHP (2.73, 71, 2.66, 3.47), 11:35 PM CT
This is obviously the big matchup of the series. Shark gave up a three-run homer to Braun in his last outing – not much shame in getting beat by one of the top five hitters in the league. Aside from that rough second inning (which included, sigh, another fielding error), he was fairly sharp.
Latos got off to a lousy start last year after the Reds picked him up in a trade with the Padres, btu righted the ship in the second half of the year to finish with a 3.48 ERA (3.85 FIP). He's had no such problem this year, striking out over a quarter of batters he's faced and walking only four. He's given up a home run or three, but allowed few enough baserunners not to have it be a problem. He has a 94 mph fastball, and a devastating slider that has a whiff rate of over 50% in his career. So unlike the previous day, probably not a great day for Soriano at the plate.
Comments
scouts say that cingrani relies a lot on deception, and that his arm action is as long as you will ever see for a starter. given that he basically only has one pitch, he could be a guy who looks good his first time around the league (and whenever he faces the cubs). i’m looking forward to watching him pitch.
GWQuote Reply
Great write-up, Berselius.
MylesQuote Reply
Leake is running through this team like Taco Bell at 3am
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
GWQuote Reply
In another thread we briefly talked about what Stanton might be worth. I’d glady trade anybody and everybody in the Cubs minor league organization to get him, but I’d give up significantly less to get David Price. I’d still give up a lot, but I’m not sure how comfortable I would be with giving up 2 or 3 of the Cubs top prospects for a pitcher, even one as good as Price. At least with position players there’s a lot less chance they’re going to get injured and suck. It’s not a question of whether or not it will happen to pitchers, but when (for a good many of them anyway).
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d give up Baez + Almora for Price (basically, and of the top 2 of 3), but I’d give them all up probably for Stanton.
MylesQuote Reply
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-the-ideal-25-man-prospect-roster/
dmick89Quote Reply
I remember someone saying that we’d be “bare” again, but if we convert even 1 of the 3 (of Baez/Soler/Almora) to a player of Stanton’s caliber, that’s an unqualified success.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I wouldn’t hesitate to give up Baez, Soler and Almora for Stanton. If I was running the Cubs and that offer came my way, it would be the easiest decision I would make all week. Deciding when to urinate would be a more taxing decision. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
No, he’s a shoplifter. With a record.
Walter SobchakQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Agreed. Not to mention you’d be doing it right now when Castro, Rizzo and Stanton are all very cheap. Wait until the farm system produces a couple prospects and those other two just get more expensive.
dmick89Quote Reply
Thom Brennaman is a terrible announcers. So far in this game he’s already said at least 3 things that were so important he had to slow his speech down and stress EACH. WORD. THEREFTER.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nasty pitch to get out of that inning
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yeah, the Reds guys are the worst.
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Agreed. I get the feeling Price will be too expensive.
GWQuote Reply
Phillips is ridiculous with the glove.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
I haven’t paid that much attention at this point and I’m kind of surprised this stuff is even coming out at this time of the year. My guess it that Thoyer would empty the farm system for Stanton, but wouldn’t give up all that much to get Price. They’d still give up plenty. It would probably take Soler and to be honest, the way he’s playing I’m not even comfortable making that trade. You can justify giving up everything to get Stanton. It’s just not the same with Price. I’d be reluctant to give up a lot in the farm system for a pitcher. That’s just me though.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing) cubs can’t win
dmick89Quote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/prospect-profile-ronald-torreyes.html
dmick89Quote Reply
camp and russell pitched in the 7th with the lead. so either sveum has given the closer gig to gregg (gulp) or back to marmol…
GWQuote Reply