The online MLB odds for the Cubs winning the division have taken a small hit over the last month or so, but they still have close to 90% odds of winning their division. The NL Central lead for the Cubs is down to 6.5 games again after the Cardinals swept a double-header on Wednesday and came from behind last night.
The Cubs begin a series with their rivals to the north Friday night. I’m kind of surprised the Brewers are only 40-53. I expected them to be a lot worse than that. The Brewers have managed to be slightly better than .500 at home this season (23-22). Let’s see if the Cubs can change that this weekend.
Team Leaders
Cubs (200 PA)
- OBP: Anthony Rizzo (.403)
- ISO: Rizzo (.304)
- HR: Kris Bryant (25)
- R+RBI: Bryant (142)
- wRC+: Rizzo (162)
- BSR: Bryant (4.0)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta (9.57)
- SP BB/9: Jon Lester (2.36)
- SP FIP: Arrieta (2.94)
- RP K/9: Pedro Strop (11.86)
- RP BB/9: Hector Rondon (1.03)
- RP FIP: Rondon (2.18)
- WAR: Bryant (5.1)
Brewers
- OBP: Jonathan Villar (.384)
- ISO: Chris Carter (.274)
- HR: Carter (22)
- R+RBI: Carter (99)
- wRC+: Ryan Braun (130)
- BSR: Aaron Hill (2.0)
- SP K/9: Junior Guerra (7.95)
- SP BB/9: Zachary Davies (2.33)
- SP FIP: Guerra (3.76)
- RP K/9: Tyler Thornburg (12.42)
- RP BB/9: Jeremy Jeffress (2.23)
- RP FIP: Thornburg (3.23)
- WAR: Jonathan Lucroy (2.6)
Pitching matchups
K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, projected ERA listed for each pitcher.
Friday: Jason Hammel, RHP (7.56, 2.73, 3.34, 4.33 4.07) vs Jimmy Nelson, RHP (6.55, 3.95, 3.39, 4.61, 4.33), 7:10 PM CT
It’s the second half of the season and everybody is expecting Jason Hammel to start pitching poorly. I’m not entirely convinced he’s pitched well up to this point. There are some troubling numbers when you look at his stats. His walk rate is up from the last few years and his strikeout rate is down considerably. His home runs are leaving the yard on fly balls more frequently and about the only thing holding his numbers together is an increased groundball rate and an unsustainable left on base percentage. Still, when I compare his numbers to what the Brewers have in the upcoming series it makes me feel a lot better about the back of the Cubs rotation. Hammel would one of the best Brewers starters if he was to switch sides.
I don’t know why, but for some reason it seems to me that Jimmy Nelson has been around forever. He only made his MLB debut in 2013 and is just 27 years old though. He’s an OK pitcher. He’s about like Hammel, but he walks more guys and doesn’t keep the ball on the ground as much. He’s faced the Cubs twice this season. In his first start he allowed 2 hits and 3 runs (1 earned) in 5.1 innings. He walked 4 and struckout 6. He threw 7.1 scoreless innings against them on May 18th. He walked 4 in that start too. He’s been pitching pretty well of late. Since he gave up 8 runs in 3.2 innings to the Giants on June 15th, he’s made 5 starts and given up 6 runs over 29 innings. He’s left the game twice over the span having not allowed any runs.
Saturday: John Lackey, RHP (9.24, 2.74, 3.75, 3.74, 3.52) vs Zach Davies, RHP (7.38, 2.33, 3.79, 4.10, 4.12), 6:10 PM CT
I’ll never be a fan of John Lackey, but I am impressed at how he has maintained his velocity throughout his career. He’s still striking out a career high, but he is walking more batters than he has since 2011. His groundball rate has also fallen and he’s given up more home runs. Thanks a .268 BABIP, his ERA is still decent. Lackey has had some very bad games this season and has been terrible since June 25th (5 starts) when he gave up 7 runs in 4.1 innings. Since then he’s given up 24 runs (23 earned) in 30.2 innings. He’s given up 8 home runs over his last 6 starts. If Lackey keeps the ball in the ballpark, the Cubs win.
Davies is a groundball pitcher who doesn’t throw all that hard. The Brewers acquired him midseason in 2015 from the Orioles. The O’s drafted him in 2011 in the 26th round. He’s only 23. He hasn’t walked many batters this year and his strikeout rate is OK. He has given up more home runs than he’d like. His first three starts were terrible this season, but since then he’s been pretty good. He has not faced the Cubs yet.
Sunday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.44, 2.36, 2.89, 4.03, 3.28) vs Junior Guerra, RHP (7.95, 2.95, 3.06, 3.76, 4.04), 1:10 PM CT
Jon Lester’s ERA is pretty good, but some of his peripherals are a bit concerning. Not necessarily for this season, but for the next four. His strikeout rate is down a little bit and his walk rate is up a little. His home runs per 9 are nearly double what they were the last few years. 16.2% of his fly balls have left the ballpark, so I expect some regression there, but I also expect his .256 BABIP to regress in the opposite direction. Same goes for left on base percentage (a ridiculously high 84.9%). His velocity is the same as the last few years, if not a little better so I’m not overly concerned. Some of it might be signs of aging though.
Junior Guerra has been pretty good, but it’s mostly due to his .238 BABIP. The 31 year old mostly keeps the ball on the ground and is the best starter the Cubs face in this series. Guerra faced the Cubs on May 19th and threw 7 innings, allowed 5 hits and 3 runs. He walked 3 and struckout 11. He has a good fastball with an average velocity of 93.3 mph.
Comments
Twitter thinks I should follow Al Yellon.
EdwinQuote Reply
Posted this on FG:
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Cubs transaction page has already optioned Patton so there’s the move to accommodate Montgomery.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Same here but I think it’s because the Brewers have had at least one or maybe two other pitchers before him that similarly had names like they came from the 1940s. Wasn’t Jimmy Nelson a junior reporter on the Daily Planet in the old Superman?
SKQuote Reply
SK,
I’ve never been the biggest fan of Superman comics, but don’t you mean Jimmy Olsen? I assume he’s still part of DC Comics and Superman. I was always a big fan of The Flash and for a time Green Lantern. You were around during the Golden Age of comics so if you say there was a character named Jimmy Nelson, I trust you. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
I’ve come around slightly on the Montgomery trade. I think what some of you guys have said have started to make sense. They didn’t give up much that would be useful to them and they got something that could be useful in the near future. I’m both surprised and not surprised at how little the Cubs got for Vogelbach.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
I was hoping it wouldn’t be Grimm. I’d like to see if he can get back to where he was last year. If he can and if Edwards can develop, the Cubs don’t need any more bullpen help. They’re good to go.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jimmy Olson. Of course.
My mind is playing multiple tricks on me. The only other suspect I could find on recent Brewers rosters was an RP named Jim Henderson.
SKQuote Reply
Was he the one who made the Muppets?
EdwinQuote Reply
That was Jim Jensen.
SKQuote Reply
You may remember Jimmy Olsen from Batman V. Superman, where he is the (unnamed) photographer murdered by an african warlord within minutes of appearing on-screen. The quote from the director: “We just did it as this little aside because we had been tracking where we thought the movies were gonna go, and we don’t have room for Jimmy Olsen in our big pantheon of characters, but we can have fun with him, right?”
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
I know that caused a big uproar, but I have no problem with a writer or director taking liberties with these characters. I don’t think Olsen was that important to the larger story that DC is trying to tell. For that matter, I’m not sure Lois is either and based on how poorly that character has been written, I’m not sure Snyder disagrees.
Comic book movies and tv shows almost always disappoint me. They’re never as good as the original source material. I can’t speak too much about Marvel as I never read their comics, but all of these are pretty much exactly the same. I like The Flash tv show, but probably only because I was a big fan of the comic when I was a kid. If I wasn’t, I’d probably think it was just as shitty as the rest of these comic book movies and tv shows. And there are about 50,000 of them at the moment. All telling the same story with a different masked hero.
dmick89Quote Reply
SK,
I thought he created the Nuppets, the cheap generic alternative to the Muppets. You might recall their big hit, “Refracted Light Network”.
EdwinQuote Reply
I wanted to like the Watchmen movie much more than I did.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
Me too and I think that was the best comic book movie I’ve ever seen by far. The extended version anyway. I never saw the theatrical cut. Despite being my favorite comic book movie, I still think it was just an OK movie.
dmick89Quote Reply
Edwin,
It was very close to the source material but got way too Snyder’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I enjoyed Watchmen a good amount, and only mildly preferred the source material.
MylesQuote Reply
That would be the barbershop quartet that’s performing at this Friday’s VFW fish fry.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Rosenthal says the Cubs are still seeking an impact left handed reliever. Maybe they can go after another catcher too.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wonder who Alan Moore is voting for.
umbraQuote Reply
dmick89,
FWIW the Captain America movies have been fantastic. The rest of the MCU ones are pretty hit or miss, though take my opinion fwiw since I’m the only person on the internets who was kind of meh on GotG.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Agreed on the Captain America movies– easily the best thing going in the Marvel universe. But I kind of grade all of it on a curve. I was very steeped in comics, especially marvel as a kid, and while most of the marvel movies aren’t great, they’ve managed to generally not fuck things up to a degree that’s pretty amazing, given the track record of super hero movie and TV adaptations up til now.
I bought and read comics pretty religiously through my 20s and early 30s, moving from Marvel to stuff like Love and Rockets, Cerebus, Eightball, Flaming Carrot, etc. (yes, Flaming Carrot. ) I quit buying cold in 2000 but started again last year when my daughter got interested and am now spending way too much money on them on a monthly basis, and weirdly almost entirely on superhero comics. I’m basically submitting enthusiastically to Marvel’s movie/comics marketing plan.
I loved the original Watchman comic, and still think its a shinning high point. I bought a cheap copy of the deluxe edition of the movie awhile back, but haven’t been able to get myself to watch it yet, given the reviews.
UrkQuote Reply
I don’t actually do comics and never really did, except for Archie, and later the Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers.
As someone who used to have Deep Thoughts about popular culture, I feel very inadequate when it comes to this format.
I approve of tonight’s lineup.
SKQuote Reply
The Captain America movies (haven’t seen the most recent one, which looks like an Avengers movie to me) are really good for comic book movies. There are just so many of these at this point and aside from these two (possibly three), they are just too similar for me. I’m waiting for Suicide Squad. If it’s a good movie, I’ll probably skip all comic book adaptations after that with the exception of any future season of Jessica Jones. That show was easily better than either season of Daredevil. I thought the first was OK, but the second was just terrible in my opinion. I quit watching in about the 11th or 12th episode of the second season.
I’ve never read any Marvel comics that I can remember. It’s possible I read a Hulk comic or two as a child, but I’m not sure.
I think there’s a TV adaptation of Archie coming up either this fall or next spring.
dmick89Quote Reply
Me too. Nice to see Fowler’s name back in that lineup. Also nice to see Almora head to AAA where he can play every day.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo and Zobrist should probably be swapped in the order, but protection is such a seductive idea.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Donald Trump reminds me of Steve Austin from 30 Rock. And if you’re blind, yes he is the wrestler.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYzCn_Aj4rE
EdwinQuote Reply
Trying telling that to teenagers.
EdwinQuote Reply
You guys think Matt Szczur would be enough to get Chris Sale? Or should the cubs insist on a prospect in return?
dmick89Quote Reply
Up until this year I thought the same about Mike Montgomery (kept confusing him with that other tall pitcher from the Royals, Mike Macdougal).
GWQuote Reply
dmick89,
I mean, with the years of control a team gets with Szczur, it feels safe to ask for more.
EdwinQuote Reply
This is encouraging.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Good to have Dexter back.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I like how he got on base. That’s good table-setting.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Edwin,
That’s what I was thinking, but I’m a little biased so I wanted another opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
Szczur’s name is worth more Scrabble points. That has to be worth something.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nelson pulled a Lester.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
It’s probably worth one Quintana. Sale, Quintana for Szczur and first dibs on trading for Miguel Montero.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing) @ this defense.
dmick89Quote Reply
Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Conga line time!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I missed Dexter Fowler.
dmick89Quote Reply
Confusion and ‘not acting like yourself’ are signs of heat stroke. Hydrate, Brewers.
umbraQuote Reply
One-third of Nelson’s outs have been on TOOTBLANS so far.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Odd spot for Bryant to be running.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Dex-Starr Fowler. Just to tie it in with the Comic book theme so far tonight.
EdwinQuote Reply
Terrible AB by Rizzo. He’s been impatient lately.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel hasn’t looked particularly sharp today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I thought he looked good first time through the order.
dmick89Quote Reply
Joe seems OK wasting an at-bat here.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
He had the bullpen up last half inning so I was sure he’d pinch hit. Bad managing.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Would have been a great spot for the contact-hitting lefty La Stella. Oh well.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You’re kidding me. Hammel hits with a runner on third and one out, then gets pulled after one batter? What the hell, Joe?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jesus, Joe.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That’s just horrible. Worse than I initially thought.
dmick89Quote Reply
Great job by Edwards.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Why was Richard up in the pen in the 7th inning of a close game?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He’s the team’s third-best lefty bullpen option!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hey, Montero got a hit! Also Len keeps quoting Blues Brothers for some reason.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Terrible time to try to steal, Javy. There was a runner on third with one out. Now it will take a hit to get him in.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I know Maddon likes aggressiveness, but doesn’t he ever put up a red light?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Throw strikes, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Nope. He doesn’t want to get in the way of greatness.
dmick89Quote Reply
There’s a guy named Elmore.
umbraQuote Reply
That was strike three.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Seems like Rondon used up all of his easy innings.
dmick89Quote Reply
So the Dodgers blew a 9th inning lead.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
But they just got the lead
umbraQuote Reply
dmick89,
9th inning, 2 outs, none on, to be specific.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
umbra,
He does know it was Elwood Blues, right?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Zobrist has been pretty poor for about two months now. Would be nice to see him break out before long. Would also be nice to see something from Heyward.
dmick89Quote Reply
The NL West is useless.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-5-brewers-2-7-22-16/
dmick89Quote Reply