The Cubs have yet to win a series this year, and now go on the road to face the team with the best record in baseball. I’m guessing the Cubs sweep, because that’s how baseball seems to work (laughing).
Before the season, a lot of prognosticators picked the Brewers to be a much better team than I was expecting. They were 74-88 last year, and most thought that with Braun back they’d be flirting with .500 this year. Now we’re four weeks into the season and the Brewers have the best record in baseball. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see how that might be possible.
Team Overviews
Cubs
- wRC+: 82 (12th)
- BSR: 1.4 (5th)
- UZR: 0 (8th)
- DRS: 1 (11th)
- SP FIP-: 82 (3rd)
- RP FIP-: Something like this
Brewers
- wRC+: 102 (3rd)
- BSR: -1.1 (11th)
- UZR: 3.7 (5th)
- DRS: 4 (10th)
- SP FIP-: 95 (7th)
- RP FIP-: 79 (3rd)
It doesn’t look as good from their FIP numbers, but the biggest reason why the Brewers are in the position they’re in is their starting pitching, who have put up a 2.57 ERA on the year. Somehow even more shocking is that’s only 3rd best in the NL, behind the Cardinals and Braves (at 1.50 !!). Hooray for early season small sample sizes. Offseason megasigning Matt Garza is the one holding the rest of the rotation back, having posted a 4.50 ERA compared to everyone else’s sub-3.
Injury updates, news, notes, blood oaths, etc.
Cubs fans breathed a sigh of relief when the news broke that CJ Edwards’s MRI revealed only some inflammation and fatigue in his shoulder, instead of a dreaded surgery-requiring injury. That’s good news, but you never like to hear the work ‘fatigue injury’ for a guy who could go either way on starting vs relieving.
It’s sounding like Arrieta is going to get another rehab start before rejoining the club.
Justin Ruggiano was diagnosed with a grade 2 hamstring strain for the injury suffered during the birthday game’s dumpster fire of a ninth inning. The team says he’ll be back in 3-4 weeks, but I’d be pretty shocked if that happens.
Brewers C Martin Maldonado should be out for most of this series, serving his suspension for the Easter fight with the Pirates. Carlos Gomez appealed his three game suspension, and will keep playing until the hearing.
Former Cub Tom “Sloth” Gorzelanny is rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery and is starting to throw bullpen sessions.
The Brewers unveiled an almost creepily accurate statue of Bob Uecker in the last row of the upper deck behind home plate. I’m not sure why they didn’t put it in the Uecker seats out in LF. Gotta love the legacy of 30 year old beer commercials.
Rick Renteria referred to the Cubs closer situation as “organic” in an interview yesterday. Which is fairly accurate, because a pile of rotting compost is also organic.
Pitching Matchups
Projected FIP, current xFIP listed
Friday: Carlos Villanueva, RHP (3.85, 3.81) vs Matt Garza, RHP (3.67, 3.72), 7:05 PM CT
Villanueva has a nice 10.93 ERA to go with those good looking FIP numbers, because Cubs. He was looking pretty good in his last start, striking out seven and allowing no runs in the first four innings before it all fell apart in the fifth. At least he’s only walked one batter this year. He’ll probably get one more start before Arrieta gets back.
Garza has given up 14 runs over his last three starts, but there’s probably not much to worry about. The biggest surprise is that he’s made zero errors on the year. I hope the suddenly bunt-happy Cubs go nuts on him.
Saturday: Travis Wood, LHP (4.02, 2.79) vs Marco Estrada, RHP (3.78, 3.96), 6:10 PM CT
Wood has been fantastic so far this year, posting even better than last year’s solid season. I joked last week that he and Shark should have a side bet going on who gets the least run support, but he accounted for 80% of the scoring in his last start, including a line drive 3-run homer. He was worth 0.8 WAR with the bat last year, and is already up to 0.3 in his few PAs this year.
Estrada has an ERA that is much better than his peripherals, and it looks like the primary explanation is a 83.3% strand rate. He gets a ton of fly balls, so hopefully the Cubs can send a few over the wall in this start. His best pitch is probably his changeup, which destroyed batters last season.
Sunday: Jason Hammel, RHP (4.13, 3.63) vs Wily Peralta, RHP (4.38, 3.44), 1:10 PM CT
Hammel has a big ERA-FIP split so far this year, which is nice to see when he’s such an obvious trade candidate. Given his BABIP (.130) and strand rate (91.7%), I’m kind of surprised that he doesn’t have an even lower ERA. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all four of his starts this year.
Peralta’s ERA-FIP split is a little stranger. He has an average strand rate, a low-ish BABIP (.233), and a huge HR/FB% of 20%. Mostly it just seems that batters aren’t hitting the ball that hard against him so far. His fastball is pretty hittable (though usually, hittable into the ground), but he has a really good slider.