Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (71-62) at Cincinnati Reds (69-66)

In Series Previews by berselius159 Comments

From on NL Central contender to another, whee. The Cubs face the Reds for the final (scheduled) series this year and it’s been a wild ride in the previous Reds series this year. The Cubs split two games with the Reds in early April before seeing the third game get rained out (and being made up today). The Cubs then got swept by the Reds at Wrigley in late May, prompting much pulling of hair and gnashing of teeth and general resignation about the state of the season. The Cubs didn’t face the Reds again until early August, and there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos, and handily won three of four games including a two game stretch where the Cubs scored 36 runs.

The Reds just wrapped up a long west coast road trip to Anaheim, Arizona, and SF, where they managed to go 5-5. To their credit, they’ve managed to tread water while a bunch of their main contributors are on the shelf, but they’ve fallen behind a smidge in the playoff race during the Cubs and Beers stretch of hot play. Their playoff odds sit around 16%. The Cubs are just missing ace Hunter Greene, who pitched on Wednesday.

Team Leaders

Switching to actual numbers on the year!

Reds

  • OBP: Will Benson (.359)
  • ISO: Votto (.259)
  • HR: Spencer Steer (18)
  • R+RBI: Steer (133)
  • wRC+: Matt McLain (128)
  • BSR: TJ Friedl (7.3)
  • Defense: Elly de la Cruz (4.4)
  • SP K/9: Greene (12.02)
  • SP BB/9: Ben Lively (2.70)
  • SP FIP: Andrew Abbott (3.94)
  • RP K/9: Fernando Cruz (12.66)
  • RP BB/9: Buck Farmer (3.30)
  • RP FIP: Cruz (3.08)
  • WAR: McLain (3.2)

Cubs

  • OBP: Bellinger (.362)
  • ISO: Wisdom (.303)
  • HR: Wisdom (21)
  • R+RBI: Belli (153)
  • wRC+: Belli (139)
  • BSR: Hoerner (7.2)
  • Defense: Dansby (14.6)
  • SP K/9: Steele (8.81)
  • SP BB/9: Cyle (1.63)
  • SP FIP: Steele (3.09)
  • RP K/9: Merryweather (12.30)
  • RP BB/9: Alzolay (1.49)
  • RP FIP: Alzolay (2.78)
  • WAR: Dansby (3.9)

Who isn’t available?

Michael Fulmer is out indefinitely with the dreaded forearm strain diagnosis. Recent news makes it seem like there was something bugging him for a while and he might just be out for the minimum, and be back on Sep 10 or so. Stroman is still out with his rib cartilage issue, and did some long toss on Wednesday It’s still a big wild card as to what we’ll see from him in the next two to 14 months. Rule 5 guy Nick Burdi can’t catch a break this year – he was on his way back before an emergency appendectomy in late May, and since then he’s been diagnosed with some kind of ulnar nerve irritation. Given his status as a rule five guy this could just be David Patton disease but who knows. Brad Boxberger started a rehab assignment with Iowa last week, but given how long he’s been on the shelf it’s not clear that he can make an impact right away. He’s been getting rekt in Iowa, so that’s a further sign that he might not be back soon. Brandon Hughes has been pitching at the complex in Arizona and might get into a minor league game soon, if any teams are still playing.

For the Reds, shortstop and top WAR-haver Matt McLain hit the IL earlier this week with an oblique strain. Joey Votto has missed the last week or so with a shoulder injury but may be back soon. Jonathan India has been out for about a month with lingering plantar fasciitis injury which, I feel ya Jonathan, it sucks ass. CF Jake Fraley missed most of March with a fractured toe, and is working his way back in AAA.

Pitching Matchups, game times

2023 K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP listed for all starters (projections for recent callups)

Friday G1: Jordan Wicks, LHP (7.78, 3.10, 4.50, 4.59) vs Graham Ashcraft, RHP (6.72, 3.26, 4.73, 5.11), 12:10 PM CT

Friday G2: Shane Greene(?) (7.71, 3.77, 4.99, 5.06) vs TBD, 5:40 PM CT

Saturday: Javier Assad, RHP (6.84, 3.65, 2.96, 4.44) vs Andrew Abbott, LHP (10.05, 3.45, 3.35, 3.94), 5:40 PM CT

Sunday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (7.84, 2.44, 5.62, 4.68) vs Brandon Williamson, RHP (7.94, 3.01, 4.20, 4.51) 11:10 AM CT

Share this Post

Comments

  14. Rice Cube

    Good luck boys, you’ve had 162 games at that point to deal with it

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. Rice Cube

    Hope the Cubs all had their shots, crap

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  33. andcounting

    Wesneski always has that look on his face like he’s mustering up the courage to leave his locker and walk past the bullies that always take his lunch money.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  39. andcounting

    I don’t know if QBS (quality bullpen start) is a thing, but tonight’s game definitely argues in favor of its creation.

      Quote  Reply

    1

    0
  55. andcounting

    I guess I had no clue how many possibilities there were for so many of the squares, but if I’m not mistaken only one of my guesses failed to win an MVP. It’s not like I chose anyone obscure (other than Vinny Castilla, I guess, but he’s my go-to Rockie).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  56. Perkins

    ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 153 9/9:
    Rarity: 94
    IMMACULATE!
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩

    Rarity score not nearly as impressive as AC’s.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  73. BVS

    ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 153 8/9:
    Rarity: 131
    🟩🟩🟩
    🟩⬜️🟩
    🟩🟩🟩

    I made a square.

    Lost a guess thinking KB was a SS and MVP.

    Not watching game tonight. Watching Marvel instead with Mrs BVS.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  80. andcounting

    Assad has been in a jam every inning, given up 7 hits and a walk, but he’s thrown just 78 pitches through 6. One of the weirder starts I can remember.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  104. andcounting

    Leiter absolutely needs a safety net every time he pitches. And Madrigal is the guy you want hitting with a runner on 3rd and LESS THAN two outs. Need a ground ball, obviously he’s your guy. Need a hit? Come on, man.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  105. Rice Cube

    Scoring just 1 or 2 runs is definitely a recipe for silliness like that, not giving Canario a start to see what he has is going to be a questionable decision at best considering some team slumps

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  109. andcounting

    Re-watching the “Four Days in October” 30 for 30 and reminded that the only player justifiably shunned from the Hall of Fame for something other than his baseball prowess is Alex Rodriguez. I’m open to suggestions, but I can’t think of a bigger cheater, a dirtier player, or a stankier piece of shit than ARod.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  120. andcounting

    I don’t have any idea what Ross will do, but in the still dubious event that the Cubs make the postseason, I wouldn’t include Taillon on the roster.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  125. andcounting

    Say what you want (or don’t, I can’t tell you what to do) about scoring more runs, the Cubs had those last two games won. To come away with neither after two brilliant pitching performances is what kept this series from being a success, and Ross shit the bed IMO. This game is very likely going to be a laugher in the Reds’ favor, but the really poor decisions came the past two games, especially last night. This game was probably hopeless anyway.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  126. Rice Cube

    Whatever they decide to do going forward, they need to find a creative way to minimize the damage Taillon does, this shitty start then cruise rest of the way stuff is annoying

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  134. andcounting

    For as sure as those last two games felt like they would be wins, this one has yet to feel like a game the Cubs plan not to lose. At this point I’d be glad to be wrong a third consecutive time.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  149. Rice Cube

    Cubs win in 3:17 which is pretty good for a high scoring game, I don’t think they’ve lost ground to anyone except the Brewers this weekend despite the two heartbreakers

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  151. Perkins

    Great win, though it’s infuriating that the Cubs were so close to a four game sweep that would have ended the Reds’ season.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  152. Rice Cube

    I do not think the Pirates will be much help against the Brewers so the Cubs will have to help themselves this week particularly against fellow wild card contenders…on the other hand, the Mariners might be able to do something against the Reds

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  155. Perkins

    ⚾️ Immaculate Grid 154 5/9:
    Rarity: 466
    ⬜️🟩⬜️
    ⬜️🟩🟩
    🟩🟩⬜️
    I had a pretty weak grid today. Could have sworn Kevin Pillar had a GG with Toronto.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment