The Cubs haven’t been swept yet*, so, uh, I guess they got that going for them. The Reds do not enjoy this property, as they are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Barves. Sunday’s loss was capped off (well, pre-capped off) by ejections Reds manager Bryan Price and Homer Bailey, who was on one of his offdays, for arguing a call that was reviewed. Their biggest issue this year has been their bullpen, which has somehow been even worse than the Cubs. They’re badly missing Aroldis Chapman, and Sean Marshall has been banged up for the last year or so.
*I Cubed this post by forgetting that the Cubs were swept in the doubleheader at Yankee stadium. Those responsible have been sacked.
Team Overviews
Cubs
- wRC+: 78 (13th)
- BSR: 2.3 (3rd)
- UZR: -1.8 (9th)
- DRS: -1 (11th)
- SP FIP-: 88 (3rd)
- RP FIP-: 120 (12th)
Reds
- wRC+: 94 (9th)
- BSR: -1.4 (13th)
- UZR: 15.0 (2nd)
- DRS: 9 (8th)
- SP FIP-: 108 (11th)
- RP FIP-: 139 (15th)
Injuries, news, notes, blood oaths, etc
The Cubs dodged Johnny Cueto again this series. Though I guess that now that Garza and DeJesus are gone he’d be less likely to throw at someone on this team.
The Reds best non-Canadian hitter, Devin Mesoraco, is on the DL for the second time already this year. This might not be a precise estimate, but I think he hit something like 214 doubles in the last series with the Cubs.
Aroldis Chapman is up and throwing again after his horrific spring training injury. He’s thrown a simulated game or two and might be back to the Reds soon.
SP Mat Latos remains on the DL after multiple surgeries in the offseason. He gave up a zillion HRs to Kris Bryant (IIRC), then was shut down for a few weeks due to inflammation. He’s recently started throwing again.
Jake Arrieta isn’t on track to take Carlos Villanueva‘s next turn in the rotation, but he will travel with the team so Renteria and Bosio can see for themselves where he is. Jose Veras was put on the DL with David Patton Disease and will work out his issues in the minors.
Nice troll job from Matt Garza, who does not seem to look back at his time in Chicago particularly fondly.
Pitching Matchups
Projected FIP, current xFIP listed for each starter
Monday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.40, 3.36) vs Alfredo Simon, RHP (3.99, 4.31), 6:10 PM CT
Simon has a better projection than I would have guessed, given his journeyman-like bouncing between franchises over his career. Though now that I look at it, ZiPS is projecting him as a reliever. This year is his first stint starting in over two years, when he put together 16 middling starts for the Orioles. He’s just holding down the fort until Latos gets back. He’s put up pretty good numbers so far, but a .185 BABIP with a 51.2% GB rate is not sustainable.
Shark worked into the 8th in his start vs Arizona and watched the bullpen spectacularly implode after he left. I guess I can see why Garza is so negative on the Cubs.
Tuesday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (3.69, 4.35) vs Tony Cingrani, LHP (3.83, 3.98), 6:10 PM CT
Guys like Travis Wood outpitch their peripherals, so I guess that Jackson is in-pitching them. It’s kind of amazing to see that despite how hard he’s been hit this year, he has yet to give up a single HR. Now that I’ve said this, watch Billy Hamilton hit two off of him on Tuesday (dying laughing).
Cingrani struck out the planet last season, which baffled me considering he pretty much only throws fastballs and only at 92 mph or so. He’s struggled with his control so far and it sounds like he’s tinkering with his mechanics. A 12-k game against the Cubs is exactly what he needs to get back on track.
Wednesday: Carlos Villanueva, RHP (3.93, 4.14) vs Homer Bailey, RHP (3.80, 3.09), 6:10 PM CT
This is a matchup of two guys who have been hit fairly hard this year despite good peripherals. Bailey sports a 6.15 ERA and 5.36 FIP, mostly thanks to coughing up 7 HRs, while Villanueva has had bad luck with balls that stay in the park, savoring every moment of a .451 BABIP and 54.1% strand rate. Villanueva looked good for the first 3-4 innings of his last start against the Reds, then fell apart in the fifth inning. Bailey shut the Cubs down in that game but has given up at least 4 runs in every other start. I’ve got a lot more confidence in Bailey bouncing back for this game than Villanueva.