The Cubs face off with the titans of the NL Central for the first time this year. The Reds have cooled off a bit, dropping three of four to the Brewers and two of three to the O's in the past week. At least they gave their fans two weeks or so of vague relevancy, unlike past rebuilding Cubs teams.
Team Leaders (projected)
Cubs
- OBP: Anthony Rizzo (.382)
- SLG: Rizzo (.529)
- HR: Rizzo / Kris Bryant (33)
- R+RBI: Bryant (213)
- wOBA: Rizzo (.385)
- BSR: Javier Baez (1.3)
- SP K/9: Jake Arrieta (8.95)
- SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (2.03)
- SP FIP: Jon Lester (3.34)
- RP K/9: Wade Davis (12.51)
- RP BB/9: Hector Rondon (2.03)
- RP FIP: Davis (2.71)
- WAR: Bryant (5.8)
Reds
- OBP: Joey Votto (.421)
- SLG: Votto (.493)
- HR: Adam Duvall (28)
- R+RBI: Duvall (161)
- wOBA: Votto (.388)
- BSR: Billy Hamilton (7.0)
- SP K/9: Cody Reed (8.44)
- SP BB/9: Bronson Arroyo (2.30)
- SP FIP: Reed (4.56)
- RP K/9 Rasiel Iglesias (10.11)
- RP BB/9: Drew Storen (2.43)
- RP FIP: Iglesias (3.45)
- WAR: Votto (4.1)
Joey Votto is good.
Injury News
The Reds have a bunch of players on the shelf, including four pitchers who would probably have been in their starting rotation if healthy. Brandon Finnegan is down with a lat strain suffered last week, Rookie Davis is out after being hit by a pitch on a bunt attempt earlier this month, de-facto ace Anthony DeSclafani is on the 60-day DL with a lat strain, and he's the de-facto ace since their nominal ace Homer Bailey always seems to be on the DL. Bailey had elbow surgery in Februrary and it out for at least the first half of the year. Joining him in the perpetual DL zone is catcher Devin Mesoraco, who had hip surgery last July and is currently on a rehab assignment. There's a reason why Bronson Arroyo is starting games.
Probable Pitchers
K/9, BB/9, projected ERA listed for each starter.
Friday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.93, 2.17, 3.08) vs Tim Adleman, RHP (6.78, 2.93, 4.83), 6:10 PM CT
Lester's peripherals look a lot better than I would have guessed. It certainly seems like he's throwing waaay more pitcher than usual this year, but who knows what's going on with the Cubs pitching staff.
Adleman seems to be the Reds long guy/AAA shuttle rider this year. At least Louisville isn't that far from Cincy. He struck out five in a four inning relief appearance against the Brewers last week to earn this spot start.
Saturday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (9.10, 2.77, 3.13) vs Cody Reed, LHP (8.57, 3.07, 4.41), 12:10 PM CT
Reed is another relief pitcher pressed into service for this series. He made ten starts last year and got shelled, including back to back starts against the Cubs. He gave up fifteen runs in eight innings across those starts, including two homers. But he did have eight perfect innings this April, so he's got that going for him.
Sunday: John Lackey, RHP (8.04, 2.45, 3.68) vs Bronson Arroyo, LOL (4.84, 2.50, 6.25), 12:10 PM CT
I'm glad Arroyo is still around, because I'm always reminded each time that he pops up that he's not left handed, he just has the profile of a soft-tossing junkballer lefty. His projection line is comical. And he still somehow managed to notch a win this season after only allowing one home run in the five innings of work in his last start. His fastball tops out somewhere around 84. I can't wait to see him pitching a shutout into the eighth inning of this game.
Comments
The current leader in baseball reference dWAR is Addison Russell.
MylesQuote Reply
This series seems so unfair. Anything less than 8 runs a game is going to feel bad.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
I’m guessing 2, 1 and 9 runs in the third game of the series.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
2, 1, & 9 are gonna be RBI numbers by the end of the 1st inning tonight.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Russell
Heyward
Contreras
Baez
Lester
Almora
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
I have no idea how many runs the Cubs will score. 8? 6? 7? 5? 3? 0? 9? Could be any of those.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
I agree. Definitely not 4, 2 or 1.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow, looks like Bumgarner is going to be out 6-8 weeks
BerzeliusQuote Reply
Dirt bike accident. Just crazy.
Good thing he didn’t play soccer, like Carlos Zambrano. That would have been a real atrocity.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Edwin,
Glad to know that for the cost of a dime I can always turn to you for this type of analysis.
uncle daveQuote Reply
What the hell, Javy?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
TOOTBLAN
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Don’t walk the bases loaded for Votto, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Whew.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Stop. Striking. Out.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Heyward!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You just cannot give up doubles to pitchers.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Nice to see Baez start to hit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t swing at those pitches, Albert.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Grimm is getting squeezed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Just ugly.
PerkinsQuote Reply
That was disappointing.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The World Series cost this team its strength. Victory has defeated it.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Nice work by Strop. Time to bat around, he said with much false hope.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
X2
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Almora might have even worse plate discipline than Baez.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
How many men can they strand?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow.
dmick89Quote Reply
He probably does. He did in the minor leagues anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
I hate the “don’t use your closer in a tie game on the road” superstition.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I hope we see Davis in the 10th whether it’s a tie or not.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I am okay with Enderman Edwards taking the tenth.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That curve. Damn.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Maddon is really determined not to use Zobrist.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nice
ABPA by Almora.ceruleanQuote Reply
Almora gets excited.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Nice slide.
dmick89Quote Reply
I was nervous when I saw how shallow Bryant’s fly was. It’ll do, though.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I am okay with Wade Davis coming in.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cardiac Cubs are in the house.
PerkinsQuote Reply
First pitch curve for a strike has been remarkably popular in these extras.
ceruleanQuote Reply
JD just said re the identity of these 2017 Cubs: “Maybe they will be the Cardiac Cubs.”
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’d certainly prefer the “we’ll grind you into dust” version we saw for most of 2016.
PerkinsQuote Reply
(For the record, the 1998 Cubs were the Cardiac Cubs. Brant Brown made sure of that.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Perkins,
That was the first half of the season. Second half was late-inning comebacks.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wait you only pay a dime for your OV membership? I’ve been paying $47,000.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Don’t walk the hitter ahead of Votto.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Perkins,
The Clutch Dream-Crushing Cubs. You think you’ve won this game? Think again.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The bullpen has been the real hero of this winning streak.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
CJ gets his first career win.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That’s genuinely surprising.
ceruleanQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
For just $10,000 more you can sign up for our free weekly newsletter.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Shit I can’t afford not to take that deal. I’ll take four. Will you accept a third-party out-of-state bad check as payment?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-6-reds-5-4-21-17/
berseliusQuote Reply