Welp, here we go. Time to see how much devil magic is left.
Position player team leaders
Cubs
- R+RBI: Rizzo (195)
- CERA: Ross (2.68)
- H: Rizzo (163)
- HR: Rizzo (31)
- OBP: Rizzo (.387)
- SLG: Rizzo (.512)
- wOBA: Rizzo (.384)
- BSR: Bryant (7.1)
- Defense: Russell (17.1)
- Helmet Rubs: Herrera
- fWAR: Bryant (6.5)
Cardinals
- R+RBI: Carpenter (185)
- CERA: Molina (2.80)
- H: Heyward (160)
- HR: Carpenter (28)
- OBP: Holliday (.394)
- SLG: Grichuk (.548)
- wOBA: Carpenter (.372)
- BSR: Heyward (7.0)
- Defense: Heyward (16.4)
- Deadest eyes: Holliday
- fWAR: Heyward (6.0)
I had to get the two most important stats out of the way first.
Likely-ish lineups
Cubs
- CF Fowler (.333)
- LF Schwarber (.364)
- 1B Rizzo (.384)
- 3B Bryant (.371)
- RF Coghlan (.337)
- 2B Castro (.288)
- C Montero (.328) / Ross (.221)
- P
- SS Russell (.304)
For Cubs blurbs, see Myles's excellent writeup from the wild card game. Anything I add would be dwarfed by the great stuff he did.
Cards
- 3B Carpenter (.372)
- RF Piscotty (.364) / Grichuk (.370)
- LF Holliday (.351)
- CF Heyward (.346)
- SS Peralta (.323)
- 1B Moss (.328) / Reynolds (.311)
- 2B Wong (.310)
- C Molina (.287) / Cruz (.237)
- P
The Cardinals lineup is a much bigger piece of guesswork, given their relatively crowded outfield and injury situations. Grichuck still can't throw worth a damn, Molina made the roster but has to be pretty iffy with that thumb, and I'm not sure that Holliday is 100% yet. They were taking it easy with him down the stretch giving him more or less every other game off, despite the possibility of the Pirates catching them. It's obviously all hands on deck in the playoffs but he might have to take it easy at the very least with running/defense. Matt Adams was left off the playoff roster, probably due to a case of too much rust.
Carpenter was clearly the Cardinals best position player this year, but it was a very odd change in his batting line. In his breakout season he hit half a billion doubles and posted an OBP of .392. Those doubles helped push his slugging line up to .481 despite only eleven home runs. He scuffled in the power department last year, only slugging .375, and then this year his powe was back, but in the form of homeruns. I remember announcers back in 2013 talking up how hard he was to strike out, though this was a bit overblown. He struck out 98 times for a K% of 13.7%, but last year it rose to 15.7% and this year all the way up to 22.7%. It looks like he's selling out for more power, which obviously worked with his HR numbers, but surprisingly his balls in play numbers were looking just fine as well, with his BABIP 'only' dropping to .318. Having a 28.5% line drive rate will help with that, even if you are hitting more fly balls.
I really hope to see Grichuk in the outfield a few times this series, this whole arm injury thing is nuts. They have Piscotty playing at 1B from time to time, but not Grichuk? WTF? He's struck out 31.4% of PAs this year, so I'm expecting him to sit out at least for the Arrieta game.
Holliday has been hobbled by injuries this year, though that hasn't stopped him from putting up a solid OBP at least in his 277 PAs. He's only been back since Sep 17, making just six starts in that span and posting a .182/.217/.318 line with no HRs. Holliday's the guy on the Cards I'd least want to bet against, but if he's not in a groove that's a big piece missing from the Cards lineup.
Heyward has been amazing for the Cardinals this year. The only surprise is that the Cardinals didn't manage to stealthily sign him to a low-market extension to keep him around. He's got a cannon for an arm out there and gunned down Rizzo in one of the series I recently enjoyed, possibly even on the play that injured Molina. Hopefully the Cubs learned their lesson about running on him.
Peralta had a much more disappointing second season with the Cardinals, posting just 1.7 fWAR compared to 5.3 last year. A lot of that came from a nearly two win difference in his defense, but he also slipped a bit with the bat. His ISO dropped from .180 to .136, though his power was enough to beat the Cubs in the Molina Ejection game, as if anyone wants to be reminded of that.
The less said about Moss and Reynolds, the better. Reynolds still hits lefties hard, but not nearly to the extent he did earlier in his career, and is a disaster on defense. Moss put up better numbers than I realized since coming over from Oakland, but a low .300s wOBA and forgettable defense is not really what you're looking for in a 1B. Of course, Matt Adams's numbers the last two seasons have only been slightly better than that, so *shrug*.
Wong had a solidly forgettable year – I guess a .262/.321/.386 line and averageish defense is enough to net you 2 WAR in the current run environment.
Blah blah inantgibles field general blah, those intangibles are all Molina is bringing to the table if he plays in these games. In a rare moment of actual analysis Kevin Millar pointed out on MLBN this morning that Molina's thumb injury makes it more or less impossible for him to grip a bat properly, so he might not even be able to hit it out of the infield. I can't imagine catching all those flamethrowing relievers with that hand will help things either.
Pitching probables
ERA, FIP, K%-BB%, fWAR listed for each pitcher
- Friday: Jon Lester, LHP (3.34, 2.92, 19.3%, 5.0) vs John Lackey, RHP (2.77, 3.57, 13.6%, 3.6)
- Saturday: Kyle Hendricks, RHP (3.95, 3.36, 16.8%, 3.4) vs Jaime Garcia, RHP (2.43, 3.00, 13.1%, 2.8)
- Monday: Jake Arrieta, RHP (1.77, 2.35, 21.6%, 7.3) vs Michael Wacha, RHP (3.38, 3.87, 12.5%)
- Tuesday: Jason Hammel (?), RHP (3.74, 3.68, 18.6%, 2.4) vs Lance Lynn, RHP (3.03, 3.44, 13.2%, 3.1)
I don't think it's a surprise that the pitchers that the Cubs lit up in their recent series (Lynn, Wacha) were pushed back in the playoff rotation.
I feel like I should hit the grocery store on my way home for a chicken and beer night. Lackey somehow has been the Cardinals best pitcher this year, though it looks like volume was what just put him over the top of Carlos Martinez, who is out for the rest of the year with a shoulder strain. Lackey's peripherals are almsot exactly the same as they were last year, the big difference in his ERA this year is likely due to an 82.6% strand rate, which is what the Devil Magic wheel pointed to when they spun it this season. Lester got his first hit of his career off of his former teammate, wouldn't it be great if he picked up his first homer in this game? I'd settle for merely an extra base hit, that's all I ask.
For all the bitching and moaning about Lester (or any player who signs a huge contract), he put together a solid year for the Cubs. He even managed to eventually shut up some of the comments about him throwing to first, though the Cardinals seem like the kind of team who is going to keep pushing that limit with him anyway. His peripherals are also just about spot on from last year, though slightly worse when you consider that he switched from the DH league to the flailing pitchers league.
Garcia only made 20 starts this year, missing most of the first half with a shoulder injury and missing more time in July with a groin strain. He's spent a lot of time on the DL the last few years, but when he actually makes it to the mound he's been effective. He's pretty much a mass-murderer of worms with how many grounders he induces, and I wouldn't mind seeing Baez or La Stella getting the nod over Castro in this game because of it.
I think Hendricks is the right call for game two, but Joe is definitely going to have a pretty quick hook. Even if he's effective like he's been the past few starts I'd be shocked if he goes much more than five innings. Captain Sixorg had a decent writeup on him a little while ago, comparing him to Mike Leake.
There's not much more to be said about Arrieta that hasn't been said already. My paranoid Cub fan ness is a little nervous to see him running out of gas a bit in the WC game coupled with his jump in workload this year. Ugh. Now I need a beer.
The Cubs faced Wacha twice in September and roughed him up both times, scoring a total of ten runs on twelve hits and seven walks, including four home runs, in nine innings. He had a bad run in general to end the year, also giving up six runs to the Pirates in his final start and giving up five combined runs in short-ish outings against the punchless Reds and Brewers. Wacha's another guy who had a big inning jump this year and it's a pretty easy narrative to point to it as the reason he faded down the stretch. Jeff Sullivan took a look at his mechanics/pfx to see if anything was going on and saw a few things, but I'm not sure I want to draw any conclusions from it.
I think the only way Hammel starts game four is if the Cubs are up 2-1 in the series, and even then I wouldn't be surprised to see Lester out there on short rest. Though given how well the Cubs bullpen games have worked out, I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe turn this into one more or less. Too bad even Joe wouldn't have Hammel throw a simulated first inning to get his weird first inning yips stats smoothed away.
Lynn also faced the Cubs twice in September, and the results were even worse than Wacha's starts. He gave up nine runs in just 5.2 innings, which included a six-walk game at Wrigley Field on 9/18. Unlike Wacha he looked better in his non-Cubs starts, and gave up just one run in his final three starts combined.
Anything could happen and there's always Devil Magic lurking out there, but I feel pretty good about this series. How the Cardinals won 100 games still baffles me, but maybe that blind spot is what's making me feel good here. Time to buckle in and enjoy the ride. And all of the umpire lobbying. And probably another bench clearing incident.
The last five years have trained me to think more this morning about how awesome it is the Cubs signed one of the top international free agents than the fact they are playing a playoff game tonight.
Dude, fuck the future. The future is today.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Pretty sure they already sold those at the same time they sold tickets for the possible WC game. If you registered for that, I think you’re still registered for NLCS and WS draws.
It appears that yesterday was the deadline to register for the NLCS draw, so if you register today you might only be eligible for the WS draw which we all know is definitely going to happen.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Nice preview, b. Maybe I’m overly confident, but I just don’t see the Cardinals winning this series. The Cubs seem to have just about every advantage on this team with the possible exception being bullpen. I like the Cubs winning the series 3-1, but 3-0 won’t surprise me. At the beginning of the year, the Cardinals were the much better team. They were healthy and the Cubs had yet to call up Bryant and Russell. They didn’t know what they had in them. It really seemed quite unlikely we’d see Schwarber get the amount of playing time he did. The Cardinals aren’t as healthy and the Cubs got great production from their young guys. The Cubs, right now, are the much better team in my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Cubs have huge momentum. Cards haven’t played in five days. They are banged up. Molina says he can’t hold a ball normally with his mangled left thumb in a splint but he’s playing anyway. Cards will be running on Lester but Cubs should match their attempts as there could be a number of passed balls. The Cubs’ domination of the Pirates has got to have the Cards on the defensive. And the Cubs just destroyed the second best team in MLB in an enemy ballpark, so they will have no fear bringing it in Busch.
So I too am definitely overly confident.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’ve said it several times, I think this is one of the best Cubs teams we’ll see over the next couple years. I think they’ll destroy the Cards.
MillertimeQuote Reply
That would be so awesome.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I’m hoping the Cubs win in 3 and the Dodgers win in 3 or 4. I’d love to see Arrieta/Kershaw in the LCS.
dmick89Quote Reply
From your keyboard to God’s inbox.
I will say in addition to everything else what might be the most impressive aspect of this team is its poise (at least so far). The last best Cubs team of my lifetime steamrolled through the year before seeming to understand all too well the 100 year thing and then let the weight of it crush them (or not, hard to say what the hell happened, (dying laughing)). So far this team doesn’t appear to be letting it affect them.
Probably doesn’t hurt that this Cubs team will play more road games than home this postseason. Hard to feel the pressure from millions of desperate, needy fans and the weight of the century when you aren’t playing too often in front of a high concentration of them.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m the minority opinion, but I have the Cardinals in 4. Cardinald have a pretty potent lineup and a much better rotation. They win 2 and 4 and steal 1 or 3.
Hope I’m wrong.
mylesQuote Reply
dmick89,
To play devil magic’s advocate here, it’s not like expectations were that high for Grichuk and Piscotty going into the season either, and they’ve been good. I kept seeing people talk about depth last week somehow completely ignoring how deep the cards are at OF, though if Holliday is playing hurt that really cuts into it.
berseliusQuote Reply
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/ct-spt-1009-leitch-cardinals-cubs-20151008-story.html
berseliusQuote Reply
http://cbsloc.al/1jcm1ct
The troll is strong with this one.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing)
I hate St. Louis “pizza” and it’s all they freaking serve in central IL. So frustrating.
WaLiQuote Reply
Those landfills have to make a profit somehow.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’d say the Cardinals have a pretty middling lineup myself. 24th in runs scored, 19th in wOBA, 16th in wRC+…
But then, it’s the same for the Cubs, too.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I don’t know about that. DRA below.
Arrieta: 2.31
Hendricks: 3.87
Lester: 3.89
Hammel: 4.61
Lackey: 4.13
Garcia: 3.28
Wacha: 3.92
Lynn: 4.26
FIP listed above by berselius. Looks about even. K-BB% is a big advantage Cubs.
Hammel is pretty low there and hasn’t been the same since the injury so that matters, but the Cardinals have had some struggles lately in the rotation too. I’d take the Cubs rotation over the Cardinals.
I think, at best, it’s fairly even. I definitely don’t think the Cardinals have a much better rotation.
dmick89Quote Reply
He’s like Bizarro Vlahos.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
NLDS Roster
berseliusQuote Reply
I think Holliday is playing hurt. He couldn’t even run when the Cardinals played in Chicago a couple weeks ago. The Cardinals have gotten some unexpected production too, but they were projected to win a lot of games. Their rotation was performing way above expectations early on. Once they regressed some, the Cardinals became just above average in my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Hours after writing this, I’m even more baffled that the Cardinals haven’t used Grichuk at 1b at all in the past month.
berseliusQuote Reply
Your Certificate of Discreditation has been revoked.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’m hoping they don’t start Ross when Lester throws.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Fixed.
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
You know they will.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I didn’t understand it when the Cubs and cardinals last played. The good news is they’ll be able to run on Yadi (unless they’re overplaying his injury, which I don’t think they are) and the outfield.
dmick89Quote Reply
Some deep memes surfacing for the playoffs. Impressed.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Is that a euphemism?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Good call.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This is a close matchup, but the Cubs clearly have the edge. Cubs in two, because #devilmagic backfires eventually.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Fixed, don’t want to run on Heyward.
berseliusQuote Reply
Assuming the Cubs made the NLCS, would they have home field advantage? I thought LCS seeding was based on best remaining record rather than division winners, but I’m having trouble finding anything.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Great writeup at whygavs
http://whygavs.com/october-2015/a-long-ways-from-the-place-where-we-are.html
berseliusQuote Reply
Ex-girlfriend asked if I could emergency cat-sit tonight.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. No. RIP feline frents.
umbraQuote Reply
The 2008 Cubs say hello.
PerkinsQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB1B55hj-pw&feature=youtu.be
WaLiQuote Reply
Perkins,
I believe the seeding is persistent—so the wildcard at the 4 is always the challenger.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That DRA shows the Cards as appreciably better 2 of the 4 games, way outclassed in one, and dead even in another. Stats aside, I feel more comfortable if I have Lance Lynn or Jaime Garcia than if I have Kyle Hendricks or Jason Hammel. This doesn’t even get into bullpens, another Cardinal strength and Cubs relative weakness.
Would it surprise me if the Cubs swept? Of course not. I think it’s probably a 55/45 Cards advantage, though.
mylesQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Schwarber (LF)
Bryant
Rizzo
Castro
Coghlan
Russell
Ross
Lester
berseliusQuote Reply
Fixed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Sigh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
berselius,
Did Joe ever say what changed in terms of batting the pitcher 8th or 9th? Almost every game it was 8th and then about a month ago it shifted. I don’t care. Don’t think it makes a difference one way or the other. Just curious what his thinking is on it.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I’ve been wondering the same thing, but haven’t seen anything.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I’d just really like to hear Joe talk about his decision to make the shift. I know I’d learn something. He’s very good at making convincing arguments.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I think it’s just he’s determined to have Lester (and Arrieta before him) stay in the game until the end, so minimizing the need for a pinch hitter.
Also, Schwarber in right now. What’s up with that? Isn’t Wrigley a pretty tough right field?
JasonQuote Reply
Maddon’s main reason for batting Russell nineth was so that he could see more good pitches.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Same here, but I don’t think that makes the Cardinals rotation much better. I think I put a lot more stock in K-BB% than you do so that might be the sticking point here. I don’t think the Cardinals rotation (without Carlos Martinez) is all that impressive. I don’t think their top two compare to the top two in the Cubs rotation. If they steal one of those games, the Cubs are going to have a hard time winning this series, but I think that’s true of any team. The Rangers stole a game yesterday started by Price so that makes them heavy favorites at this point.
As I said initially, maybe I’m overly optimistic, but I don’t see the Cardinals winning a game started by Lester or Arrieta in this series. Obviously it can happen, but if I was betting, I’d put money on the Cubs winning any game started by one of them. I think if the Cubs can steal game 2, they’ve got a good chance to sweep the Cardinals and if Hendricks pitches as he did recently (after fixing his mechanical issue), I think there’s a very good chance they take game 2.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think we see Lester on short rest in game 4 regardless of whether or not the Cubs are up or down 2-1.
dmick89Quote Reply
That makes sense (the Russell part). Maddon must have liked what he’s seen from Schwarber in RF.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Oo, I think I know. Lester is facing mostly righties and pitches inside. He’s expecting fewer balls to the right. Joe’s a genius.
JasonQuote Reply
I’m hoping Toronto loses. They’re the only AL team that actually looks good.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They’re also the team that I thought would beat the Cubs in the postseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
False.
WaLiQuote Reply
Schwarber is in LF – he was only playing right recently because LF is tougher in PNC
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
Thanks for quoting my autocorrect error before I could fix it.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Although Thai does look good right now…
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Schwarber was moved to RF and Coghlan to LF, berselius. It was a change made after the lineups were first announced today.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2015_10_09_chnmlb_slnmlb_1#game=2015_10_09_chnmlb_slnmlb_1,game_state=Pregame
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing), and now I just saw Gordo tweet that Schwarber and Coghlan are swapping positions.
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
game thread up: http://obstructedview.net/games/nlds-cubs-cardinals-game-1/
dmick89Quote Reply
I think Maddon said that earlier in the year he did not want Russell batting in front of the pitcher (where he would sometimes get pitched around) because that required some situational hitting that he didn’t want to put on the kid. He would rather have him bat 9th where pitchers would pitch him straight up and there would be less situational hitting. Now that Russell has been around a while, he is more comfortable throwing him into the fire.
Also, now that it is at the end of the year and Maddon is willing to push the pitch counts on Arrieta and Lester, I think he wants them at the back of the order to delay the possible need to pinch hit for them as late as possible.
JimLQuote Reply
For those who are making predictions in the series don’t forget account for the devil magic the Cardinals use that allows them to strand 99.5645* percent of runners when they are pitching and to hit .856* with RISP when batting.
* Made up numbers, but accurate enough for our analysis.
JimLQuote Reply