Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (16-12) at St. Louis Cardinals (17-12)

In Uncategorized by berselius90 Comments

The Cubs head to STL for a quick road series before returning home to face off with some lousy teams. Hopefully the Cubs aren't looking ahead to those games. The Cardinals were swept by the Pirates over the weekend, but bounced back by sweeping a short series with the White Sox.

Team Leaders

Switching to 2018 numbers…

Cubs

  • OBP: Kris Bryant (.427)
  • ISO: Javier Baez (.346)
  • HR: Baez / Kyle Schwarber (7)
  • R+RBI: Baez (46)
  • wRC+: Schwarber (159)
  • BSR: Baez (1.6)
  • DRS: Addison Russell (+4)
  • SP K/9: Yu Darvish (11.10)
  • SP BB/9: Kyle Hendricks (2.21)
  • SP FIP: Tyler Chatwood (4.03)
  • RP FIP: Carl Edwards Jr (15.15
  • RP BB/9: Pedro Strop (2.25)
  • RP FIP: Edwards (0.89)
  • WAR: Baez (1.1)

Cardinals

  • OBP: Tommy Pham (.447)
  • ISO: Paul DeJong (.252)
  • HR: Dejong (7)
  • R+RBI: Pham (34)
  • wRC+: Pham (172)
  • BSR: Dejong / Pham (1.1)
  • DRS: Kolten Wong (+6)
  • SP K/9: Carlos Martinez (9.00)
  • SP BB/9: Miles Mikolas (0.55)
  • SP FIP: Martinez (3.24)
  • RP K/9: Bud Norris (12.64)
  • RP BB/9: Norris (1.15)
  • RP FIP: Norris (1.75)
  • WAR: Pham (1.5)

Injuries, transactions, vengenace pacts, etc.

Waino is on the DL for the Cardinals, which is probably a good thing for the Cardinals. They're also down sometime closer Brett Cecil, who has both a shoulder and a foot injury.

For the Cubs, the only significant player on the DL is still Butler, who has no ETA on his return from a groin stratin.

Pitching Probables

Projected K/9, BB/9, ERA listed for each pitcher.

Friday: Jose Quintana, LHP (9.01, 2.63, 3.39) vs Miles Mikolas, RHP (7.73, 2.66, 4.16), 7:15 PM CT

I accidentally called Quintana Javier Vazquez the other day, I was surprised to see that he has been out of the league since 2011. Time flies.

Mikolas was terrible in his first go-round MLB, then went to Japan and suddenly learned how to pitch. He throws a ton of breaking stuff, and his slider in particular has been effective this year.

Saturday: Tyler Chatwood, RHP (7.49, 4.56, 4.29) vs Luke Weaver, RHP (8.25, 2.55, 3.83), 1:15 PM CT

Chatwood had his best start of the season his last time out, shutting out the Brewers over seven innings with just two hits and four strikeouts. More importantly, he only issued three walks, which seems like a microscopic number for Chatwood.

The Cubs knocked Weaver around when they saw him last, scratching out nine hits and a walk in four innings for six runs. He's struggled in his two starts since, including a six-walk performance against the Mets.

Sunday: Jon Lester, LHP (8.81, 2.68, 3.70) vs Michael Wacha, RHP (8.09, 3.11, 4.10), 7:05 PM CT

The Cards haven't announced their starter for this game but from the looks of it this should be Wacha's spot. I feel like the Cubs usually hit him well, hopefully they do so again withe a relatively national audience watching on ESPN.

Lester shut down the Cards back in mid-April, tossing six scoreless with seven strikeouts and two hits. He's looking to bounce back from a rough-ish outing where he gave up two (unearned-ish) runs and a whole slew of hits against the Rockies.

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Comments

  1. Tyrone

    The R+RBI helps, but I don’t think I have a good grasp of what to expect in this series because you neglected to include each team’s level of Diggity.

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  2. Tyrone

    Edwin,

    Not at all. One you introduce the smallest unit of Diggity, the range of Doubt becomes nearly unlimited. And frankly, you can return to 0 Diggity and still maintain some level of Doubt.

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  3. Tyrone

    Not to change the subject, but I’m surprised Chatwood is not referred to as Shatwood on this site.

    Back to the Diggity-Doubt discussion…

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  4. Author
    berselius

    Tyrone:
    Not to change the subject, but I’m surprised Chatwood is not referred to as Shatwood on this site.

    Back to the Diggity-Doubt discussion…

    He has the best FIP on the starting staff so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  5. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    2B Zobrist
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    C Contreras
    LF Schwarber
    CF Almora
    RF Heyward
    SS Baez
    P Chatwood

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  6. Edwin

    Tyrone:
    Not to change the subject, but I’m surprised Chatwood is not referred to as Shatwood on this site.

    Back to the Diggity-Doubt discussion…

    I normally leave the witty player names to the Bleacher Nation comment section.

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  7. Edwin

    berselius,

    Mostly due to his silly HR/FB rate.

    For all the talk about how much more improved he’d be outside of Colorado, he’s basically been the same pitcher, or even worse in a number of ways. His Strike % is as low as ever, he’s getting fewer swings and misses, his GB% is lower, his K% is up marginally while his BB% has skyrocketed. He’s actually throwing his elite spin rate Curve even less now than last year. I really don’t care for Chatwood. I hope he gets blown up for a couple starts and then demoted to the bullpen.

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  8. dmick89

    Edwin: I hope he gets blown up for a couple starts and then demoted to the bullpen.

    I think Chatwood could be a really good setup man if he could ever learn how to walk fewer batters.

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  9. dmick89

    Considering the fact that Chatwood has the best FIP among the starters, Bryant and Rizzo have both missed some time and that Darvish and Rizzo have sucked, it’s kind of remarkable the Cubs are 16-12.

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  10. cerulean

    Is it just me or are commercials are worse than ever? Their excitement-hacking fake-urgency are on the level of banner and pop-up ads of the early 2000s.

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  11. SK

    Mike Maddux only has to cover his mouth with two fingers when he’s talking to the pitcher on the mound because of that Mike Maddux mustache.

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  12. Senior Rockies Correspondent Berselius

    Nice to see the babip dragon smiling on the Cubs today.

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  13. cerulean

    HAVE YOU SEEN THESE NUMBERS?

    5, 6, 7, 8, 9

    The Chicago National League Ballclub has submitted a formal missing numbers report for the digits in question. If you have any information regarding the whereabouts of these numbers, please call (312) 210-1234.

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  14. Rizzo the Rat

    Bader is a weak hitter who doesn’t walk much. Putting him on to bring the tying run to the plate was inexcusable.

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  15. Rizzo the Rat

    I’m still not sure how Rizzo got charged with an error for bouncing a throw off Russell’s glove. (He should have taken it to the bag, though.)

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  16. North Side Pat

    I recommend a fresh game thread for tomorrow’s finale. And a starting pitcher that can go past the 5th inning.

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  17. Rizzo the Rat

    Baseball Prospectus has Contreras at -5 framing runs, dead last in the MLB. Welington is second-worst at -3.9.

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  18. dmick89

    Chatwood has now walked 27 in 32.2 innings. His K-BB% is 3.5%. His K-BB% was terrible the past two years and it’s just pathetic at this point. He’s also hit two batters.

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  19. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    C Contreras
    LF War Bear
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    SS Russell
    CF Happ
    2B Baez
    RF Heyward
    P Lester

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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