OSS: Cubs run out Lester and Arrieta and cap it off with a game against Jason Marquis.
The two division leaders square off at Wrigley Field. The last-ish time these teams squared off, this happened
There’s something about the Reds, I guess. A mini-throwdown between Johnny Cueto and David DeJesus (needlessly escalated by Matt Garza and Dusty Baker in the press the next day) a few years back led to my usual ‘vows of revenge’ quote in the news section.
Team Leaders
NB: these are taken from the current fangraphs depth charts/projections. Which for some reason have David Ross getting by far the most PAs at catcher.
Reds
- WAR: Votto (4.2), Cueto (3.8), Frazier (2.9)
- OBP: Votto (.410), Frazier (.319), Mesoraco (.319)
- SLG: Votto (.472), Frazier (.446), Mesoraco (.446)
- Defense: Hamilton (8.2)
- SP K/9: Cueto (8.4)
- RP K/9: Chapman (15.8)
- SP BB/9: Cueto (2.3)
- RP BB/9: Badenhop (2.3)
Cubs
- WAR: Rizzo (4.4), Bryant (3.7), Lester (3.6)
- OBP: Fowler (.358), Rizzo (.357), La Stella (.337)
- SLG: Bryant (.499), Rizzo (.495), Soler (.463)
- Defense: Rizzo (6.7)
- SP K/9: Arrieta (8.8)
- RP K/9: Ramirez (10.6)
- SP BB/9: Hendricks (2.1)
- RP BB/9: Motte (2.7)
Gotta love those Reds OBP numbers (dying laughing).
News, notes, injuries, vengeance pacts, etc.
Mike Olt is back in the starting lineup today, just two days after what looked like it could have been a season-ending HBP. Tommy La Stella meanwhile has been nursing a vague ‘side injury’ that reportedly is not an oblique injury. He’ll take some swings today to see how he feels, and it sounds like he won’t hit the DL.
Down on the farm, Kris Bryant and Addison Russell hit homers in today’s game. It’s only a handful of games, but it’s nice to see Russell off to a hot start. Given the weather this time of year you’d expect the bats to cool off a bit.
No Billy Hamilton in tonight’s lineup due to a sore finger suffered on Friday. Hopefully this tones down the Lester throwing to first tempest in a teapot.
No Devin Mesoraco either, who is getting a MRI for a sore left hit. Mesoraco has seemingly owned the Cubs (or maybe that was Hanigan. Or both.) so this is good news for their chances this week, not to mention Hanigan’s rankings in the above Team Leaders section.
Pitching matchups
I’m listing each pitchers ZiPS projected K/9, BB/9, and ERA
Monday: Mike Leake, RHP (6.39, 2.25, 4.02) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.13, 2.31, 3.16), 7:05 PM CT
I’ve never been a huge Mike Leake fan, though his story is pretty cool. He’s one of the few guys in recent-ish baseball history who spent zero time in the minors before being called up. When the Cubs drafted Cashner there was talk that he could have done the same if they wanted to bring him in as a late inning reliever, but they decided to stretch him out instead. Good choice, considering the return. Anyway, Leake. Somehow he’s just that forgettable (dying laughing). I was chuckling in some of the preseason Reds stuff (notably in BP) that talked about how he was one of the many pitching decisions they had to make this offseason, since pretty much their entire 2014 rotation save Bailey (who is hurt and has a big contract) are free agents after this year. They moved Simon (a big regression candidate, nice move), and Latos, who is on paper way better than Leake but seems like was not very popular in the clubhouse/FO given how he bashed the org on the way out. Leake was rocky in his first start of the year, walking six batters in under six innings against the Pirates but somehow scraping by with only three runs allowed.
Lester will be off a pitch count today, and it should be fun seeing him shut down the Reds lefties (as much as anyone can shut down Votto). There are no other storylines to talk about with Lester in this game. Nope. Zero.
Tuesday: Anthony DeSclafani, RHP (7.04, 2.59, 4.52) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (8.59, 3.54, 3.72), 7:05 PM CT
The Reds picked up DeSclefani from the Marlins in the Latos trade, and they hope he’ll make up for the current/upcoming holes in the rotation. He pitched in the AFL last year and looked “horrible”, per Jeff Sullivan, with a too-straight 89-94 mph fastball and a slider that was all over the place. He had consistently low walk numbers in the low minors though, and maybe he was just in a funk in the AFL or somthing. He went six innings giving up two runs against the Pirates, striking out six and walking one.
Jay Carrieta and his magnificent beard were excelling in his first outing of the year. He started off a little rocky, walking two in the first inning, then mowed down the Cardinals the rest of the way. He struck out seven in seven innings, with three hits and three walks.
Wednesday: Jason Marquis, LOL (6.33, 3.59, 5.30) vs Travis Wood, LHP (7.17, 3.49, 4.35), 7:05 PM CT
The second day in a row of “Wait, this guy’s still pitching?!” after LaTroy Hawkins came in and blew the lead for the Rockies yesterday. If only the Reds could trade for Hawkins to be a setup guy or something, the Cubs would set a team record for HRs this year. He spent 2014 in the Phillies org and never got a callup, which is about as funny as watching Brad F-ing Snyder spending so much time in Round Rock last year while the entire Rangers roster was on the DL.
Wood was meh in his last start, which counts as a good thing at a pleasant day at Coors, pretty much his worst possible park-start matchup. He didn’t give up any home runs, so yay, but he was knocked around that spacious outfield. I still have a good feeling about his season.